We present an approach for seismic hazard assessment that considers a hybrid source model composed of faults and zones containing the remaining seismicity. The seismic-moment rate is used to distribute seismic potential, avoiding double counting. The approach is applied in SE Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity. Results show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces using the hybrid approach, which is not appreciated in the classic approach using zones exclusively.
This study proposes a modification to a stochastic downscaling method for precipitation, RainFARM, to improve the representation of the statistics of the daily precipitation at fine scales (1 km) in mountain areas. This method has been demonstrated in the Alps and it has been found to reconstruct small-scale precipitation distribution. It can be employed in a number of applications, including the analysis of extreme events and their statistics and hydrometeorological hazards.
Forecasting and hindcasting the action of sea storms on piers, coastal structures and beaches is important to mitigate their effects. To this end, with particular regard to low coasts and beaches, we have configured a computational model chain based partly on open-access models and partly on an ad-hoc-developed numerical calculator to evaluate beach wave run-up levels. The results were validated by a set of specially conceived video-camera-based experiments on a micro-tidal beach.
In this study we provide an estimation of flood damages and risks to rice cultivation in the Mekong Delta. The derived modelling concept explicitly takes plant phenomenology and timing of floods in a probabilistic modelling framework into account. This results in spatially explicit flood risk maps to rice cultivation, quantified as expected annual damage. Furthermore, the changes in flood risk of two land-use scenarios were estimated and discussed.
Building an early-warning method for rainfall-induced landslides has been an aim of landslide studies to prevent or mitigate the impact of disasters. The time information of landslides is the linchpin; however, it has been difficult to get the time information. In the study, we applied the observation of landslide-induced seismic signals to extract the occurrence times of numerous large landslides. Furthermore, the common estimations of the rainfall thresholds for landslides were performed.
The focus of this study is mudflow response to atmospheric conditions, notably major weather types and their linkages with precipitation climatology initiating mudflow events in Uzbekistan. The desired outcome of this study is to eventually select representative weather types which can then be applied to climate change studies.
Based on precipitation and wind data over the mainland of China during 1980–2014 and disaster and social data at the county level in Zhejiang Province from 2004 to 2012, we establish a comprehensive risk index for typhoon disasters and use it to zone areas of risk. Some interesting results have been obtained. The risk of typhoon disasters decreases from coastal areas to inland regions in Zhejiang Province. The comprehensive risk index is a good reflection of the risk of typhoon disasters.
Natural hazard losses are sensitive to the dependency between extreme values of the hazard variable at different spatial locations. It is therefore important to correctly identify and quantify dependency to accurately model the hazard and its resulting losses. Through application to a large data set of windstorm hazard footprints, this study demonstrates how extreme-value methods can be used to explore extremal dependency and hazard losses in very high dimensional natural hazard data sets.
Sinkholes capture the attention of residents and local media. Cars fall through roads into holes caused by water escaping from burst water mains. To determine where impacts from burst pipes on other infrastructure are most likely, we investigated soil maps, infrastructure records and local media reports, and held workshops and interviews with infrastructure companies. We found that burst mains in high sand content soils were much more likely to impact roads, gas pipes, buildings and sewers.
This study illustrates the implementation of a local-scale post-event survey that combined GPS and UAV-based techniques with qualitative information collected through interviews with local stakeholders. The comprehensive approach employed in this case study was conducted on the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), in the immediate aftermath of an extreme event that impacted the shoreline on the 5-6 February 2015, called the St Agatha storm.
This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
Increasing warming of steadily shrinking Dead Sea surface water was observed during the period of 2000–2016. We found that a positive feedback loop between the steady shrinking of the Dead Sea and positive sea surface temperature (SST) trends causes the acceleration of Dead Sea shrinking. Our findings imply the following essential point: any meteorological, hydrological or geophysical process causing steady shrinking of the Dead Sea will contribute to positive trends in SST.
Landslide hazard at a given location may change over time due to climate change, since the frequency and intensity of landslide-triggering factors such as rainfall can vary significantly. It is important for stakeholders and decision-makers to predict trends in landslide hazard to mitigate the risk of losing lives and material assets. This study contributes an innovative method for the prediction of future variations of rainfall-induced landslides and shows its application to an Italian site.
The 9 January 2018 post-fire debris flows in Montecito and Carpinteria, California, killed 23 people and destroyed over 100 homes. We examine the meteorological conditions of the event and find that a narrow band of high-intensity rainfall along a cold front triggered the debris flow. Observed rainfall rates were extreme, but not unprecedented for the region. This work increases awareness of these rainbands as a post-fire hazard in California and other midlatitude regions impacted by wildfire.
General laws regarding the effect of the impact angle on the coefficients of restitution occur regardless of the test scales and conditions. Increasing the impact angle results in a reduction of Rn, Rv and RE and causes an increase in Rt. The rotation plays an important role in the effect of the impact angle. A higher percentage of kinetic energy converted to rotational energy always induces a higher Rn and a lower Rt. The percentage can be associated with the impact angle and the rock sizes.
In the special issue The use of remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) in monitoring applications and management of natural hazards we propose a collection of papers that provide a critical description of the state of the art in the use of RPAS for different scenarios. In particular, the sequence of papers can be considered an exhaustive representation of the state of the art of the methodologies and approaches applied to the study and management of natural hazards.
We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis considering changes along the complete flood risk chain to understand how changes in different drivers affect flood risk. Results show that changes in dike systems or in vulnerability may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate change. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study and assumptions, they highlight the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way.
This research carries out an investigation of the dynamics of the Pátzcuaro–Acambay fault system in central Mexico. We use a fractal analysis of slip rates and magnitudes Mw, estimated from fault length to define faults that are susceptible of generating earthquakes. We found that 316 faults are active and moreover the existence of three zones with different deformation processes. The implications of this new micro-regionalization are very important in order to reduce seismic hazard.
Reducing disaster risks and adapting to climate change are ever more important policy goals. However, policies, methods, and practices across both policy areas often lack coherence, and opportunities are not fully exploited to build up resilience. The report "Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction in Europe" of the European Environment Agency identified several ways for how coherence and resilience can be built through knowledge sharing, collaboration, and investments.
Anticipating the flight path of a bouncing object holds fascination for playing children and scientists alike. While the path of a ball can be judged easily, the erratic rebound behavior of complexly shaped forms are intriguing. Here, we focus on the timescales and rotation changes during real rock–ground impacts while traveling down a slope. Specialized sensors inside the rock track those changes and reveal contact times in the millisecond range defining the overall flight path behavior.
The growing oil sands operations in Canada's wildlands on the one hand and an anticipated increase in the frequency of wildfires, due to global warming, on the other hand can jeopardize the safety and integrity of oil sands facilities. The present study aims to develop a methodology, based on the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System and quantitative risk assessment techniques, for assessing the impact of wildfires on wildland–industrial interfaces with an emphasis on oil sands facilities.