Articles | Volume 17, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2271-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-2271-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
13 Dec 2017
Research article |
| 13 Dec 2017
Sea-level rise along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Northern Italy) in 2100: scenarios and impacts
Luisa Perini
Servizio Geologico, Sismico e dei Suoli, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Lorenzo Calabrese
Servizio Geologico, Sismico e dei Suoli, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Paolo Luciani
Servizio Geologico, Sismico e dei Suoli, Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy
Marco Olivieri
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy
Gaia Galassi
Dipartimento di Scienze Pure e Applicate (DiSPeA), Università degli Studi di Urbino Carlo Bo, Urbino, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze Pure e Applicate (DiSPeA), Università degli Studi di Urbino Carlo Bo, Urbino, Italy
Related authors
Italo R. Lopes, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Luisa Perini, Salvatore Causio, Giovanni Coppini, Maurilio Milella, Nadia Pinardi, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1695, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We improved a computer model to simulate coastal flooding by including temporary barriers like sand dunes. We tested it where sand dunes are built seasonally to protect the shoreline for two real storms: one that broke through the dunes and another where dunes held strong. Our model showed how important it is to design these defenses carefully since even if a small part of a dune fails, a major flooding can happen. Overall, our work helps create better tools to manage and protect coastal areas.
Marco Antonellini, Beatrice Maria Sole Giambastiani, Nicolas Greggio, Luciana Bonzi, Lorenzo Calabrese, Paolo Luciani, Luisa Perini, and Paolo Severi
Proc. IAHS, 382, 263–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-263-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-263-2020, 2020
Giovanni Diaferia, Irene Molinari, Marco Olivieri, Fabio Di Felice, Andrea Contu, Domenico D'Urso, Luca Naticchioni, Davide Rozza, Jan Harms, Alessandro Cardini, Rosario De Rosa, Matteo Di Giovanni, Valentina Mangano, Fulvio Ricci, Lucia Trozzo, Carlo Murineddu, and Carlo Giunchi
Solid Earth, 16, 441–456, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-16-441-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-16-441-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Seismic noise from wind farms can disturb nearby sensitive instruments. We examine the noise of Italy's largest wind farm, located near the proposed site for the third-generation gravitational wave detector. We find that seismic noise is considerable and can be detected up to 13 km distance. Seismic sensors placed at ∼ 250 m depth confirm an excellent level of noise suppression; however, small disturbances in the recorded spectra are detectable when the wind park operates at full capacity.
Italo R. Lopes, Ivan Federico, Michalis Vousdoukas, Luisa Perini, Salvatore Causio, Giovanni Coppini, Maurilio Milella, Nadia Pinardi, and Lorenzo Mentaschi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1695, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-1695, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We improved a computer model to simulate coastal flooding by including temporary barriers like sand dunes. We tested it where sand dunes are built seasonally to protect the shoreline for two real storms: one that broke through the dunes and another where dunes held strong. Our model showed how important it is to design these defenses carefully since even if a small part of a dune fails, a major flooding can happen. Overall, our work helps create better tools to manage and protect coastal areas.
Nicolaj Hansen, Louise Sandberg Sørensen, Giorgio Spada, Daniele Melini, Rene Forsberg, Ruth Mottram, and Sebastian B. Simonsen
The Cryosphere Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2023-104, 2023
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
We use ICESat-2 to estimate the surface elevation change over Greenland and Antarctica in the period of 2018 to 2021. Numerical models have been used the compute the firn compaction and the vertical bedrock movement so non-mass-related elevation changes can be taken into account. We have made a parameterization of the surface density so we can convert the volume change to mass change. We find that Antarctica has lost 135.7±27.3 Gt per year, and the Greenland ice sheet 237.5±14.0 Gt per year.
Inès N. Otosaka, Andrew Shepherd, Erik R. Ivins, Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel, Charles Amory, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Martin Horwath, Ian Joughin, Michalea D. King, Gerhard Krinner, Sophie Nowicki, Anthony J. Payne, Eric Rignot, Ted Scambos, Karen M. Simon, Benjamin E. Smith, Louise S. Sørensen, Isabella Velicogna, Pippa L. Whitehouse, Geruo A, Cécile Agosta, Andreas P. Ahlstrøm, Alejandro Blazquez, William Colgan, Marcus E. Engdahl, Xavier Fettweis, Rene Forsberg, Hubert Gallée, Alex Gardner, Lin Gilbert, Noel Gourmelen, Andreas Groh, Brian C. Gunter, Christopher Harig, Veit Helm, Shfaqat Abbas Khan, Christoph Kittel, Hannes Konrad, Peter L. Langen, Benoit S. Lecavalier, Chia-Chun Liang, Bryant D. Loomis, Malcolm McMillan, Daniele Melini, Sebastian H. Mernild, Ruth Mottram, Jeremie Mouginot, Johan Nilsson, Brice Noël, Mark E. Pattle, William R. Peltier, Nadege Pie, Mònica Roca, Ingo Sasgen, Himanshu V. Save, Ki-Weon Seo, Bernd Scheuchl, Ernst J. O. Schrama, Ludwig Schröder, Sebastian B. Simonsen, Thomas Slater, Giorgio Spada, Tyler C. Sutterley, Bramha Dutt Vishwakarma, Jan Melchior van Wessem, David Wiese, Wouter van der Wal, and Bert Wouters
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1597–1616, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1597-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
By measuring changes in the volume, gravitational attraction, and ice flow of Greenland and Antarctica from space, we can monitor their mass gain and loss over time. Here, we present a new record of the Earth’s polar ice sheet mass balance produced by aggregating 50 satellite-based estimates of ice sheet mass change. This new assessment shows that the ice sheets have lost (7.5 x 1012) t of ice between 1992 and 2020, contributing 21 mm to sea level rise.
Gonéri Le Cozannet, Déborah Idier, Marcello de Michele, Yoann Legendre, Manuel Moisan, Rodrigo Pedreros, Rémi Thiéblemont, Giorgio Spada, Daniel Raucoules, and Ywenn de la Torre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 703–722, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-703-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Chronic flooding occurring at high tides under calm weather conditions is an early impact of sea-level rise. This hazard is a reason for concern on tropical islands, where coastal infrastructure is commonly located in low-lying areas. We focus here on the Guadeloupe archipelago, in the French Antilles, where chronic flood events have been reported for about 10 years. We show that the number of such events will increase drastically over the 21st century under continued growth of CO2 emissions.
Letizia Anderlini, Enrico Serpelloni, Cristiano Tolomei, Paolo Marco De Martini, Giuseppe Pezzo, Adriano Gualandi, and Giorgio Spada
Solid Earth, 11, 1681–1698, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1681-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-1681-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The Venetian Southern Alps (Italy) are located in a slowly deforming plate-boundary region where strong earthquakes occurred in the past even if seismological and geomorphological evidence is not conclusive about the specific thrust faults involved. In this study, we integrate and model different geodetic datasets of ground velocity to constrain the seismogenic potential of the studied faults, giving an example of the importance of using vertical geodetic data for seismic hazard estimates.
Fu Wang, Yongqiang Zong, Barbara Mauz, Jianfen Li, Jing Fang, Lizhu Tian, Yongsheng Chen, Zhiwen Shang, Xingyu Jiang, Giorgio Spada, and Daniele Melini
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 679–693, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-679-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-679-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Our new Holocene sea level curve is not only different to previously published data but also different to global glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. We see that as soon as ice melting has ceased, local processes control shoreline migration and coast evolution. This indicates that more emphasis should be placed on regional coast and sea-level change modelling under a global future of rising sea level as local government needs more specific and effective advice to deal with coastal flooding.
Marco Antonellini, Beatrice Maria Sole Giambastiani, Nicolas Greggio, Luciana Bonzi, Lorenzo Calabrese, Paolo Luciani, Luisa Perini, and Paolo Severi
Proc. IAHS, 382, 263–268, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-263-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-382-263-2020, 2020
Giorgio Spada and Daniele Melini
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 5055–5075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5055-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-5055-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate modeling of the complex physical interactions between solid Earth, oceans, and ice masses in response to deglaciation processes is of paramount importance in climate change and geodesy, since ongoing effects of the melting of Late Pleistocene ice sheets still affect present-day observations of sea-level change, uplift rates, and gravity field. In this paper, we present SELEN4, an open-source code that can compute a broad range of physical predictions for a given deglaciation model.
Michaël Ablain, Benoît Meyssignac, Lionel Zawadzki, Rémi Jugier, Aurélien Ribes, Giorgio Spada, Jerôme Benveniste, Anny Cazenave, and Nicolas Picot
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 11, 1189–1202, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-11-1189-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
A description of the uncertainties in the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL) record has been performed; 25 years of satellite altimetry data were used to estimate the error variance–covariance matrix for the GMSL record to derive its confidence envelope. Then a least square approach was used to estimate the GMSL trend and acceleration uncertainties over any time periods. A GMSL trend of 3.35 ± 0.4 mm/yr and a GMSL acceleration of 0.12 ± 0.07 mm/yr² have been found within a 90 % confidence level.
T. Howard, A. K. Pardaens, J. L. Bamber, J. Ridley, G. Spada, R. T. W. L. Hurkmans, J. A. Lowe, and D. Vaughan
Ocean Sci., 10, 473–483, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-473-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-473-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Advancing nearshore and onshore tsunami hazard approximation with machine learning surrogates
Untangling the waves: decomposing extreme sea levels in a non-tidal basin, the Baltic Sea
Accelerating compound flood risk assessments through active learning: A case study of Charleston County (USA)
Tsunami detection methods for ocean-bottom pressure gauges
Using random forests to forecast daily extreme sea level occurrences at the Baltic Coast
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis of Batukaras, a tourism village in Indonesia
Review article: A comprehensive review of compound flooding literature with a focus on coastal and estuarine regions
Catastrophic beach erosion induced by littoral drift on nearby beach after Samcheok LNG's massive coastal reclamation project
Validated probabilistic approach to estimate flood direct impacts on the population and assets on European coastlines
BN-FLEMO∆: A Bayesian Network-based Flood Loss Estimation Model for Adaptation Planning in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Physics-based forecast modelling of rip-current and shore-break wave hazards
Changing sea level, changing shorelines: integration of remote-sensing observations at the Terschelling barrier island
Regional modelling of extreme sea levels induced by hurricanes
New insights into combined surfzone, embayment, and estuarine bathing hazards
Dynamic projections of extreme sea levels for western Europe based on ocean and wind-wave modelling
Impacts of Barrier-Island Breaching on Mainland Flooding During Storm Events applied to Moriches, NY
Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast
Super Typhoons Mangkhut (2018) and Saola (2023) during landfall: comparison and insights for wind engineering practice
Inundation and evacuation of shoreline populations during landslide-triggered tsunamis: an integrated numerical and statistical hazard assessment
Rapid simulation of wave runup on morphologically diverse, reef-lined coasts with the BEWARE-2 (Broad-range Estimator of Wave Attack in Reef Environments) meta-process model
Development of a wind-based storm surge model for the German Bight
A brief history of tsunamis in the Vanuatu Arc
Tsunami inundation and vulnerability analysis on the Makran coast, Pakistan
Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment
Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event
Recent Baltic Sea Storm Surge Events From A Climate Perspective
Modelling tsunami initial conditions due to rapid coseismic seafloor displacement: efficient numerical integration and a tool to build unit source databases
Estuarine hurricane wind can intensify surge-dominated extreme water level in shallow and converging coastal systems
Revisiting regression methods for estimating long-term trends in sea surface temperature
Global application of a regional frequency analysis to extreme sea levels
Tsunami hazard assessment in the South China Sea based on geodetic locking of the Manila subduction zone
The impact of long-term changes in ocean waves and storm surge on coastal shoreline change: a case study of Bass Strait and south-east Australia
Brief communication: Implications of outstanding solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves at two additional sites in the North Sea
A systemic and comprehensive assessment of coastal hazard changes: method and application to France and its overseas territories
A multiscale modelling framework of coastal flooding events for global to local flood hazard assessments
Simulating sea level extremes from synthetic low-pressure systems
Nonlinear processes in tsunami simulations for the Peruvian coast with focus on Lima and Callao
The potential of global coastal flood risk reduction using various DRR measures
Thresholds for estuarine compound flooding using a combined hydrodynamic–statistical modelling approach
Nearshore tsunami amplitudes across the Maldives archipelago due to worst-case seismic scenarios in the Indian Ocean
Evidence of Middle Holocene landslide-generated tsunamis recorded in lake sediments from Saqqaq, West Greenland
Investigation of historical severe storms and storm tides in the German Bight with century reanalysis data
Proposal for a new meteotsunami intensity index
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
Hurricane Irma: an unprecedented event over the last 3700 years? Geomorphological changes and sedimentological record in Codrington Lagoon, Barbuda
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
A new European coastal flood database for low–medium intensity events
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth-century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach
Naveen Ragu Ramalingam, Kendra Johnson, Marco Pagani, and Mario L. V. Martina
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1655–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1655-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1655-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By combining limited tsunami simulations with machine learning, we developed a fast and efficient framework to predict tsunami impacts such as wave heights and inundation depths at different coastal sites. Testing our model with historical tsunami source scenarios helped assess its reliability and broad applicability. This work enables more efficient and comprehensive tsunami hazard modelling workflow, which is essential for tsunami risk evaluations and enhancing coastal disaster preparedness.
Marvin Lorenz, Katri Viigand, and Ulf Gräwe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1439–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1439-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study divides the sea level components that contribute to extreme sea levels in the Baltic Sea into three parts: the filling state of the Baltic Sea, seiches, and storm surges. In the western part of the Baltic Sea, storm surges are the main factor, while in the central and northern parts, the filling state plays a larger role. Using a numerical model, we show that wind and air pressure are the main drivers of these events, with Atlantic sea level also playing a small role.
Lucas Terlinden-Ruhl, Anaïs Couasnon, Dirk Eilander, Gijs G. Hendrickx, Patricia Mares-Nasarre, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1353–1375, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1353-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study develops a conceptual framework that uses active learning to accelerate compound flood risk assessments. A case study of Charleston County shows that the framework achieves faster and more accurate risk quantification compared to the state-of-the-art. This win–win allows for an increase in the number of flooding parameters, which results in an 11.6 % difference in the expected annual damages. Therefore, this framework allows for more comprehensive compound flood risk assessments.
Cesare Angeli, Alberto Armigliato, Martina Zanetti, Filippo Zaniboni, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1169–1185, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
To issue precise and timely tsunami alerts, detecting the propagating tsunami is fundamental. The most used instruments are pressure sensors positioned at the ocean bottom, called ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs). In this work, we study four different techniques that allow us to recognize a tsunami as soon as it is recorded by an OBPG and a methodology to calibrate them. The techniques are compared in terms of their ability to detect and characterize the tsunami wave in real time.
Kai Bellinghausen, Birgit Hünicke, and Eduardo Zorita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1139–1162, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1139-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We designed a tool to predict the storm surges at the Baltic Sea coast with satisfactory predictability (80 % correct predictions), using lead times of a few days. The proportion of false warnings is typically as low as 10 % to 20 %. We were able to identify the relevant predictor regions and their patterns – such as low-pressure systems and strong winds. Due to its short computing time, the method can be used as a pre-warning system to trigger the application of more sophisticated algorithms.
Wiwin Windupranata, Muhammad Wahyu Al Ghifari, Candida Aulia De Silva Nusantara, Marsyanisa Shafa, Intan Hayatiningsih, Iyan Eka Mulia, and Alqinthara Nuraghnia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1057–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1057-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Batukaras is a village on the southern coast of Java that is prone to tsunami hazards. To assess the potential tsunami hazard in the area, the probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis method was employed. It resulted in tsunami heights of 0.84, 1.63, 2.97, and 5.7 m for each earthquake return period of 250, 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. The largest contribution of earthquake sources comes from the West Java–Central Java megathrust segment.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Changbin Lim, Tae Min Lim, and Jung-Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-176, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-176, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This paper underscores the importance of assessing changes in nearby shorelines before performing large-scale coastal construction projects, thus providing insights into methods that minimize potential damage. Consequently, this study presented an opportunity to investigate the ramifications of harbor and fishing port development, as well as large-scale reclamation, which can alter wave fields in coastal regions, on rapid and catastrophic erosion issues.
Enrico Duo, Juan Montes, Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 13–39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-13-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present work, developed within the EU H2020 European Coastal Flood Awareness System (ECFAS) project, presents an approach used to estimate direct impacts of coastal flood on population, buildings, and roads along European coasts. The findings demonstrate that the ECFAS impact approach offers valuable estimates for affected populations, reliable damage assessments for buildings and roads, and improved accuracy compared to traditional grid-based approaches.
Kasra Rafiezadeh Shahi, Nivedita Sairam, Lukas Schoppa, Le Thanh Sang, Do Ly Hoai Tan, and Heidi Kreibich
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172081523.38063336/v1, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.172081523.38063336/v1, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) faces severe flood risks from climatic and socio-economic changes, requiring effective adaptation solutions. Flood loss estimation is crucial, but advanced probabilistic models addressing key drivers and uncertainty are lacking. This study presents a probabilistic flood loss model with a feature selection paradigm for HCMC’s residential sector. Experiments using new survey data from flood-affected households demonstrate the model's superior performance.
Bruno Castelle, Jeoffrey Dehez, Jean-Philippe Savy, Sylvain Liquet, and David Carayon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-168, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper introduces two new, simple, physics-based hazard forecast models of rip current and shore-break waves, which are the two primary natural hazards beachgoers expose themselves to in the surf zone. These models, which depend on a limited number of free parameters, accurately predict rip-current and shore-break wave hazard levels, including their modulation by tide elevation and incident wave conditions, opening new perspectives to forecast multiple surf-zone hazards on sandy beaches.
Benedikt Aschenneller, Roelof Rietbroek, and Daphne van der Wal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4145–4177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Shorelines retreat or advance in response to sea level changes, subsidence or uplift of the ground, and morphological processes (sedimentation and erosion). We show that the geometrical influence of each of these drivers on shoreline movements can be quantified by combining different remote sensing observations, including radar altimetry, lidar and optical satellite images. The focus here is to illustrate the uncertainties of these observations by comparing datasets that cover similar processes.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Melisa Menéndez, Marta Ramírez-Pérez, and Alexandra Toimil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4109–4131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4109-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones drive extreme sea levels, causing large storm surges due to low atmospheric pressure and strong winds. This study explores factors affecting the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic. Two ocean models are compared and used for sensitivity experiments. ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis forcing generally improves surge estimates compared to parametric wind models. Including ocean circulations reduces errors in surge estimates in some areas.
Christopher Stokes, Timothy Poate, Gerd Masselink, Tim Scott, and Steve Instance
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4049–4074, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4049-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currents at beaches with an estuary mouth have rarely been studied before. Using field measurements and computer modelling, we show that surfzone currents can be driven by both estuary flow and rip currents. We show that an estuary mouth beach can have flows reaching 1.5 m s−1 and have a high likelihood of taking bathers out of the surfzone. The river channels on the beach direct the flows, and even though they change position over time, it was possible to predict when peak hazards would occur.
Alisée A. Chaigneau, Angélique Melet, Aurore Voldoire, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Guillaume Reffray, Stéphane Law-Chune, and Lotfi Aouf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4031–4048, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4031-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate-change-induced sea level rise increases the frequency of extreme sea levels. We analyze projected changes in extreme sea levels for western European coasts produced with high-resolution models (∼ 6 km). Unlike commonly used coarse-scale global climate models, this approach allows us to simulate key processes driving coastal sea level variations, such as long-term sea level rise, tides, storm surges induced by low atmospheric surface pressure and winds, waves, and their interactions.
Catherine Renae Jeffries, Robert Weiss, Jennifer L. Irish, and Kyle Mandli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2929, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2929, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Barrier islands are important to their adjacent mainland coastline. Breaching of barrier islands creates a channel of water between the ocean and bay and increases the storm surge along the mainland coast. To examine how breaching impacts the coast we simulated a hurricane and varied the number, locations, and sizes of different breaches. We learned that total breach area directly impacts coastal flooding, and breach locations are an important predictor of flooding.
Joshua Kiesel, Claudia Wolff, and Marvin Lorenz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3841–3849, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3841-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In October 2023, one of the strongest storm surges on record hit the southwestern Baltic Sea coast, causing severe impacts in the German federal state of Schleswig-Holstein, including dike failures. Recent studies on coastal flooding from the same region align well with the October 2023 surge, with differences in peak water levels of less than 30 cm. This rare coincidence is used to assess current capabilities and limitations of coastal flood modelling and derive key areas for future research.
Yujie Liu, Yuncheng He, Pakwai Chan, Aiming Liu, and Qijun Gao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3223, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Offshore wind turbines are sensitive to tropical cyclones (TCs). Wind data from Super Typhoons Mangkhut and Saola, impacting South China, are vital for design and operation. Despite Saola's higher intensity, it caused less damage. Both had concentric eyewall structures, but Saola completed an eyewall replacement before landfall, becoming more compact. Mangkhut decayed but affected a wider area. Their wind characteristics provide insights for turbine maintenance and operation.
Emmie Malika Bonilauri, Catherine Aaron, Matteo Cerminara, Raphaël Paris, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Benedetta Calusi, Domenico Mangione, and Andrew John Lang Harris
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3789–3813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Currently on the island of Stromboli, only 4 min of warning time is available for a locally generated tsunami. We combined tsunami simulations and human exposure to complete a risk analysis. We linked the predicted inundation area and the tsunami warning signals to assess the hazard posed by future tsunamis and to design escape routes to reach safe areas and to optimise evacuation times. Such products can be used by civil protection agencies on Stromboli.
Robert McCall, Curt Storlazzi, Floortje Roelvink, Stuart G. Pearson, Roel de Goede, and José A. Á. Antolínez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3597–3625, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate predictions of wave-driven flooding are essential to manage risk on low-lying, reef-lined coasts. Models to provide this information are, however, computationally expensive. We present and validate a modeling system that simulates flood drivers on diverse and complex reef-lined coasts as competently as a full-physics model but at a fraction of the computational cost to run. This development paves the way for application in large-scale early-warning systems and flood risk assessments.
Laura Schaffer, Andreas Boesch, Johanna Baehr, and Tim Kruschke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3144, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a simple yet effective model to predict storm surges in the German Bight, using wind data and a multiple linear regression approach. Trained on historical data from 1959 to 2022, our storm surge model demonstrates high predictive skill and performs as well as more complex models, despite its simplicity. It can predict both moderate and extreme storm surges, making it a valuable tool for future climate change studies.
Jean H. M. Roger and Bernard Pelletier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3461–3478, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a catalogue of tsunamis that occurred in the Vanuatu Arc. It has been built based on the analysis of existing catalogues, historical documents, and sea-level data from five coastal tide gauges. Since 1863, 100 tsunamis of local, regional, or far-field origins have been listed; 15 of them show maximum wave amplitudes and/or run-up heights of above 1 m, and 8 are between 0.3 and 1 m. Details are provided for particular events, including debated events or events with no known origin(s).
Rashid Haider, Sajid Ali, Gösta Hoffmann, and Klaus Reicherter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3279–3290, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3279-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The coastlines bordering the Arabian Sea have yielded various tsunamites reflecting its high hazard potential and recurrences. My PhD project aims at the estimation and zonation of the hazards and risks associated with. This publication is a continuation of the previous publication (Haider et al., 2023), which focused on hazard estimation through a multi-proxy approach. This part of the study estimates the risk potential through integrated tsunami inundation analysis.
Kévin Dubois, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Erik Nilsson, and Anna Rutgersson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3245–3265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Both extreme river discharge and storm surges can interact at the coast and lead to flooding. However, it is difficult to predict flood levels during such compound events because they are rare and complex. Here, we focus on the quantification of uncertainties and investigate the sources of limitations while carrying out such analyses at Halmstad, Sweden. Based on a sensitivity analysis, we emphasize that both the choice of data source and statistical methodology influence the results.
Sergio Padilla, Íñigo Aniel-Quiroga, Rachid Omira, Mauricio González, Jihwan Kim, and Maria A. Baptista
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3095–3113, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.
Nikolaus Groll, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2664, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In recent years, the western Baltic Sea has experienced severe storm surges. By analysing the individual contributions and the total water level, these events can be put into a climate perspective. It was found that individual contributions were not exceptional in all events and no clear trend can be identified, often the combination of the individual contributions leads to the extreme events of recent years. This points to the importance of analysing composite events.
Alice Abbate, José M. González Vida, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, Fabrizio Romano, Hafize Başak Bayraktar, Andrey Babeyko, and Stefano Lorito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2773–2791, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2773-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Modelling tsunami generation due to a rapid submarine earthquake is a complex problem. Under a variety of realistic conditions in a subduction zone, we propose and test an efficient solution to this problem: a tool that can compute the generation of any potential tsunami in any ocean in the world. In the future, we will explore solutions that would also allow us to model tsunami generation by slower (time-dependent) seafloor displacement.
Mithun Deb, James J. Benedict, Ning Sun, Zhaoqing Yang, Robert D. Hetland, David Judi, and Taiping Wang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2461–2479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2461-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We coupled earth system, hydrology, and hydrodynamic models to generate plausible and physically consistent ensembles of hurricane events and their associated water levels from the open coast to tidal rivers of Delaware Bay and River. Our results show that the hurricane landfall locations and the estuarine wind can significantly amplify the extreme surge in a shallow and converging system, especially when the wind direction aligns with the surge propagation direction.
Ming-Huei Chang, Yen-Chen Huang, Yu-Hsin Cheng, Chuen-Teyr Terng, Jinyi Chen, and Jyh Cherng Jan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2481–2494, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Monitoring the long-term trends in sea surface warming is crucial for informed decision-making and adaptation. This study offers a comprehensive examination of prevalent trend extraction methods. We identify the least-squares regression as suitable for general tasks yet highlight the need to address seasonal signal-induced bias, i.e., the phase–distance imbalance. Our developed method, evaluated using simulated and real data, is unbiased and better than the conventional SST anomaly method.
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2403–2423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2403-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are at risk of flooding from rising sea levels and extreme weather events. This study applies a new approach to estimating the likelihood of coastal flooding around the world. The method uses data from observations and computer models to create a detailed map of where these coastal floods might occur. The approach can predict flooding in areas for which there are few or no data available. The results can be used to help prepare for and prevent this type of flooding.
Guangsheng Zhao and Xiaojing Niu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2303–2313, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The purpose of this study is to estimate the spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard in the South China Sea from the Manila subduction zone. The plate motion data are used to invert the degree of locking on the fault plane. The degree of locking is used to estimate the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes and describe the slip distribution. A spatial distribution map of the 1000-year return period tsunami wave height in the South China Sea was obtained by tsunami hazard assessment.
Mandana Ghanavati, Ian R. Young, Ebru Kirezci, and Jin Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2175–2190, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2175-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper examines the changes in shoreline position of the coast of south-east Australia over a 26-year period to determine whether changes are consistent with observed changes in ocean wave and storm surge climate. The results show that in regions where there have been significant changes in wave energy flux or wave direction, there have also been changes in shoreline position consistent with non-equilibrium longshore drift.
Ina Teutsch, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2065–2069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2065-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate buoy and radar measurement data from shallow depths in the southern North Sea. We analyze the role of solitons for the occurrence of rogue waves. This is done by computing the nonlinear soliton spectrum of each time series. In a previous study that considered a single measurement site, we found a connection between the shape of the soliton spectrum and the occurrence of rogue waves. In this study, results for two additional sites are reported.
Marc Igigabel, Marissa Yates, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Youssef Diab
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1951–1974, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1951-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Changes in sea levels alone do not determine the evolution of coastal hazards. Coastal hazard changes should be assessed using additional factors describing geomorphological configurations, metocean event types (storms, cyclones, long swells, and tsunamis), and the marine environment (e.g., coral reef state and sea ice extent). The assessment completed here, at regional scale including the coasts of mainland and overseas France, highlights significant differences in hazard changes.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1354, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are key for mitigating coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations to provide actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models, and bridges between fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three storms to present the merits of a multiscale approach. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, Mika Rantanen, and Matti Kämäräinen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1835–1842, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1835-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We study the relationship between tracks of low-pressure systems and related sea level extremes. We perform the studies by introducing a method to simulate sea levels using synthetic low-pressure systems. We test the method using sites located along the Baltic Sea coast. We find high extremes, where the sea level extreme reaches up to 3.5 m. In addition, we add the maximal value of the mean level of the Baltic Sea (1 m), leading to a sea level of 4.5 m.
Alexey Androsov, Sven Harig, Natalia Zamora, Kim Knauer, and Natalja Rakowsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1635–1656, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1635-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Two numerical codes are used in a comparative analysis of the calculation of the tsunami wave due to an earthquake along the Peruvian coast. The comparison primarily evaluates the flow velocity fields in flooded areas. The relative importance of the various parts of the equations is determined, focusing on the nonlinear terms. The influence of the nonlinearity on the degree and volume of flooding, flow velocity, and small-scale fluctuations is determined.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Charlotte Lyddon, Nguyen Chien, Grigorios Vasilopoulos, Michael Ridgill, Sogol Moradian, Agnieszka Olbert, Thomas Coulthard, Andrew Barkwith, and Peter Robins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 973–997, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-973-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recent storms in the UK, like Storm Ciara in 2020, show how vulnerable estuaries are to the combined effect of sea level and river discharge. We show the combinations of sea levels and river discharges that cause flooding in the Conwy estuary, N Wales. The results showed flooding was amplified under moderate conditions in the middle estuary and elsewhere sea state or river flow dominated the hazard. Combined sea and river thresholds can improve prediction and early warning of compound flooding.
Shuaib Rasheed, Simon C. Warder, Yves Plancherel, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 737–755, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-737-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here we use a high-resolution bathymetry dataset of the Maldives archipelago, as well as corresponding high numerical model resolution, to carry out a scenario-based tsunami hazard assessment for the entire Maldives archipelago to investigate the potential impact of plausible far-field tsunamis across the Indian Ocean at the island scale. The results indicate that several factors contribute to mitigating and amplifying tsunami waves at the island scale.
Niels J. Korsgaard, Kristian Svennevig, Anne S. Søndergaard, Gregor Luetzenburg, Mimmi Oksman, and Nicolaj K. Larsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 757–772, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-757-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A tsunami wave will leave evidence of erosion and deposition in coastal lakes, making it possible to determine the runup height and when it occurred. Here, we use four lakes now located at elevations of 19–91 m a.s.l. close to the settlement of Saqqaq, West Greenland, to show that at least two giant tsunamis occurred 7300–7600 years ago with runup heights larger than 40 m. We infer that any tsunamis from at least nine giga-scale landslides must have happened 8500–10 000 years ago.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 481–499, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-481-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Storm tides for eight extreme historical storms in the German Bight are modelled using sets of slightly varying atmospheric conditions from the century reanalyses. Comparisons with the water level observations from the gauges Norderney, Cuxhaven and Husum show that single members of the reanalyses are suitable for the reconstruction of extreme storms. Storms with more northerly tracks show less variability within a set and have more potential for accurate reconstruction of extreme water levels.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 121–131, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-121-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are the result of atmospheric disturbances and can impact coastlines causing injury, loss of life, and damage to assets. This paper introduces a novel intensity index to allow for the quantification of these events at the shoreline. This has the potential to assist in the field of natural hazard assessment. It was trialled in the UK but designed for global applicability and to become a widely accepted standard in coastal planning, meteotsunami forecasting, and early warning systems.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine A. Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie A. Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3895–3912, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3895-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Total water levels (TWLs) induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the leading hazards faced by coastal communities. Using numerical models, we examined how TWL components (surge and wave runup) along the South Atlantic Bight varied during hurricanes Matthew (2016), Dorian (2019), and Isaias (2020). Peak surge and peak wave runup were dominated by wind speeds and relative positions to TCs. The exceedance time of TWLs was controlled by normalized distances to TC and TC translation speeds.
Maude Biguenet, Eric Chaumillon, Pierre Sabatier, Antoine Bastien, Emeline Geba, Fabien Arnaud, Thibault Coulombier, and Nathalie Feuillet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3761–3788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3761-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work documents the impact of Hurricane Irma (2017) on the Codrington barrier and lagoon on Barbuda Island. Irma caused two wide breaches in the sandy barrier, which remained unopened for 250 years. The thick and extensive sand sheet at the top of the lagoon fill was attributed to Irma. This unique deposit in a 3700-year record confirms Irma's exceptional character. This case study illustrates the consequences of high-intensity hurricanes in low-lying islands in a global warming context.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando Javier Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3685–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3685-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning for coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone are often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3635-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Véra Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3585–3602, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3585-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood-prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3525–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A paleotsunami deposit of cliff-top basalt debris was identified on the Penghu Islands in the southern Taiwan Strait and related to the 1661 earthquake in southwest Taiwan. A minimum wave height of 3.2 m is estimated to have rotated the biggest boulder for over 30 m landwards onto the cliff top at 2.5 m a.s.l. The event must have been huge compared to the 1994 M 6.4 earthquake with the ensuing 0.4 m high tsunami in the same area, validating the intimidating tsunami risks in the South China Sea.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3487–3507, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rip currents are narrow jets of offshore-directed flow that originated in the surf zone, which can take swimmers of all ability levels into deeper water unawares. In this study, a 1 m fine-resolution wave-resolving model was configured to study rip current variability and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. Multiple factors contribute to the survival of swimmers. However, for weak-to-moderate rip and longshore currents, swimming onshore consistently seems to be the most successful strategy.
Cited articles
Adloff, F., Somot, S., Sevault, F., Jordà, G., Aznar, R., Déqué, M., Herrmann, M., Marcos, M., Dubois, C., Padorno, E., Alvarez-Fanjul, E., and Gomis, D.: Mediterranean Sea response to climate change in an ensemble of twenty first century scenarios, Clim. Dynam., 45, 2775–2802, 2015.
Antonioli, F., Ferranti, L., Fontana, A., Amorosi, A., Bondesan, A., Braitenberg, C., Dutton, A., Fontolan, G., Furlani, S., Lambeck, K., Mastronuzzi, G., Monaco, C., Spada, G., and Stocchi, P.: Holocene relative sea-level changes and vertical movements along the Italian and Istrian coastlines, Quatern. Int., 206, 102–133, 2009.
Antonioli, F., Anzidei, M., Amorosi, A., Presti, V. L., Mastronuzzi, G., Deiana, G., De Falco, G., Fontana, A., Fontolan, G., Lisco, S., Marsico, A., Moretti, M., Orru, P. E., Sannino, G. M., Serpelloni, E., and Vecchio, A.: Sea-level rise and potential drowning of the Italian coastal plains: Flooding risk scenarios for 2100, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 158, 29–43, 2017.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Masina, M., and Perini, L.: Run-up computation behind emerged breakwaters for marine strom risk assessment, J. Coastal Res., 56, 1612–1616, 2009.
Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., Valentini, A., and Masina, M.: Critical storm thresholds for significant morphological changes and damage along the Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy, Geomorphology, 143, 34–51, 2012.
Aucelli, P. P. C., Di Paola, G., Incontri, P., Rizzo, A., Vilardo, G., Benassai, G., Buonocore, B., and Pappone, G.: Coastal inundation risk assessment due to subsidence and sea level rise in a Mediterranean alluvial plain (Volturno coastal plain–southern Italy), Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci., 198, 597–609, 2016.
Barends, F. B., Carbognin, L., Gambolati, G., and Steedman, R. S.: LAND SUBSIDENCE (Special Volume), Proceedings of Seventh International Symposium on Land Subsidence, 23–28 October 2005, Shanghai, China, Millpress Science Publishers, Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 2005.
Bissoli, R., Pellegrino, I., and Rapino, A.: Rilievo della subsidenza nella pianura emiliano-romagnola. Relazione finale, seconda fase, Tech. rep., Regione Emilia-Romagna, ARPA-RER, Bologna, Italy, 2012.
Bonaduce, A., Pinardi, N., Oddo, P., Spada, G., and Larnicol, G.: Sea-level variability in the Mediterranean Sea from altimetry and tide gauges, Clim. Dynam., 47, 2851–2866, 2016.
Bondesan, M., Castiglioni, G., Elmis, C., Gabbianelli, G., Marocco, R., Pirazzoli, P., and Tomasin, A.: Coastal areas at risk from storm surges and sea-level rise in northeastern Italy, J. Coastal Res., 11, 1354–1379, 1995.
Bonsignore, F., Cristofori, D., Costantino, R., Errigo, D., Porrelli, M. G., and Laghi, A.: Analisi preliminare degli effetti dei prelievi di acque sotterranee sull'evoluzione recente del fenomeno della subsidenza in Emilia-Romagna, Tech. rep., Regione Emilia-Romagna, ARPA Ingegneria Ambientale, Bologna, Italy, 2008.
Brázdil, R., Pfister, C., Wanner, H., Von Storch, H., and Luterbacher, J.: Historical climatology in Europe – the state of the art, Climatic Change, 70, 363–430, 2005.
Bruckner, E.: Klima-Schwankungen seit 1700 nebst Bemerkungen über die Klimaschwankungen der Diuvialzeit, Geographische Abhandlungen, 14, E. Hölzel, Wien, Austria, 325 pp., 1890.
Calabrese, L., Cibin, U., and Perini, L.: Evoluzione del sistema marino-costiero nel contesto geologico-climatico, in: Il Sistema Mare-Costa dell'Emilia-Romagna, edited by: Perini, L. and Calabrese, L., 137–154, Pendragon, Bologna, Italy, 2010.
Carminati, E. and Di Donato, G.: Separating natural and anthropogenic vertical movements in fast subsiding areas: the Po plain (N. Italy) case, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 2291–2294, 1999.
Cazenave, A. and Cozannet, G. L.: Sea level rise and its coastal impacts, Earth's Future, 2, 15–34, 2014.
Cerenzia, I., Putero, D., Bonsignore, F., Galassi, G., Olivieri, M., and Spada, G.: Historical and recent sea level rise and land subsidence in Marina di Ravenna, northern Italy, Ann. Geophys.-Italy, 59, P0546, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-7022, 2016.
Church, J., Clark, P., Cazenave, A., Gregory, J., Jevrejeva, S., Levermann, A., Merrifield, M., Milne, G., Nerem, R., Nunn, P., Payne, A., Pfeffer, W., Stammer, D., and Unnikrishnan, A.: Sea Level Change, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P., 1138–1191, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2013.
Ciavola, P., Ferreira, O., Haerens, P., Van Koningsveld, M., and Armaroli, C.: Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environ. Sci. Pol., 14, 924–933, 2011.
Clarke, L., Edmonds, J., Jacoby, H., Pitcher, H., Reilly, J., and Richels, R.: Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations, US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington D.C., USA, p. 6, 2007.
Correggiari, A., Roveri, M., and Trincardi, F.: Late Pleistocene and Holocene evolution of the north Adriatic Sea, Il Quaternario, 9, 697–704, 1996.
Deserti, M., Chiggiato, J., Valentini, A., Perini, L., Cibin, U., Lucani, P., Calabrese, L., Lorito, S., Ciavola, P., Gardelli, M., and Armaroli, C.: Analysis of correlation between coast evolution and meteo-marine climatology. CADSEALAND WP04: Integrated informative system to support protection strategies. Deliverable 4.5, Tech. rep., Annali Idrologici del Servizio Idrografico e Mareografico Nazionale, Bologna, Italy, 115 pp., 2006.
De Zolt, S., Lionello, P., Nuhu, A., and Tomasin, A.: The disastrous storm of 4 November 1966 on Italy, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 861–879, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-861-2006, 2006.
European Parliament and Council: Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks, Official Journal of the European Union, L288, 27–34, 2007.
Friis-Christensen, E. and Lassen, K.: Length of the solar cycle: an indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, 254, 698–700, 1991.
Fujino, J., Nair, R., Kainuma, M., Masui, T., and Matsuoka, Y.: Multi-gas mitigation analysis on stabilization scenarios using AIM global model, Energ. J., 27, 343–353, 2006.
Galassi, G. and Spada, G.: Sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Sea by 2050: Roles of terrestrial ice melt, steric effects and glacial isostatic adjustment, Global Planet. Change, 123, 55–66, 2014a.
Galassi, G. and Spada, G.: Linear and non-linear sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea from tide gauge records (1872–2012), Ann. Geophys.-Italy, 57, P0658, https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-6536, 2014b.
Gambolati, G., Giunta, G., Putti, M., Teatini, P., Tomasi, L., Betti, I., Morelli, M., Berlamont, J., De Backer, K., Decouttere, C., Monbaliu, J., Yu, C. S., Brøker, I., Christensen, E. D., Elfrink, B., Dante, A., and Gonella, M.: Coastal evolution of the Upper Adriatic Sea due to sea level rise and natural and anthropic land subsidence, in: CENAS: Coastline Evolution of the Upper Adriatic Sea due to Sea Level Rise and Natural and Anthropogenic Land Subsidence, 1–34, Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 1998.
Gambolati, G., Teatini, P., and Tomasi, L.: Coastline regression of the Romagna region, Italy, due to natural and anthropogenic land subsidence and sea level rise, Water Resour. Res., 35, 163–184, 1999.
Gonella, M., Teatini, P., Tomasi, L., and Gambolati, G.: Flood risk analysis in the Upper Adriatic Sea due to storm surge, tide, waves, and natural and anthropic land subsidence, in: CENAS: Coastline Evolution of the Upper Adriatic Sea due to Sea Level Rise and Natural and Anthropogenic Land Subsidence, edited by: Gambolati, G., 313–324, Springer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, 1998.
Harley, M. D.: Coastal Storm Definition, in: Coastal Storms: Processes and Impacts, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, Chichester, UK, 1–21, 2017.
Harley, M. D., Valentini, A., Armaroli, C., Ciavola, P., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., and Marucci, F.: An early warning system for the on-line prediction of coastal storm risk on the Italian coastline, Coastal Engineering Proceedings, 1, 77, https://doi.org/10.9753/icce.v33.management.77, 2012.
Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Perrette, M., Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S., Marzeion, B., Fettweis, X., Ionescu, C., and Levermann, A.: Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 111, 3292–3297, 2014.
Hinkel, J., Jaeger, C., Nicholls, R. J., Lowe, J., Renn, O., and Peijun, S.: Sea-level rise scenarios and coastal risk management, Nature Climate Change, 5, 188–190, 2015.
IDROSER S.p.A.: Progetto di Piano per la difesa dal mare e la riqualificazione ambientale del litorale della Regione Emilia-Romagna, Tech. rep., Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy, 1996.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: The supplementary report to the IPCC scientific assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK, 1992.
Lambeck, K., Antonioli, F., Anzidei, M., Ferranti, L., Leoni, G., Scicchitano, G., and Silenzi, S.: Sea level change along the Italian coast during the Holocene and projections for the future, Quatern. Int., 232, 250–257, 2011.
Le Mouélic, S., Raucoules, D., Carnec, C., and King, C.: A least squares adjustment of multi-temporal InSAR data, Photogramm. Eng. Rem. S., 71, 197–204, 2005.
Lionello, P., Galati, M., and Elvini, E.: Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral, Phys. Chem. Earth A/B/C, 40, 86–92, 2012.
Lorito, S., Calabrese, L., Perini, L., and Cibin, U.: Uso del suolo della costa, Il sistema mare-costa dell'Emilia-Romagna. Pendragon, Bologna, Italy, 109–118, 2010.
Malguzzi, P., Grossi, G., Buzzi, A., Ranzi, R., and Buizza, R.: The 1966 “century” flood in Italy: A meteorological and hydrological revisitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D24106, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JD007111, 2006.
Marabini, F., Veggiani, A., Yunshan, Q., and Shuxi, C.: Climatic variations in the coastal zone – Comparison between the Po River delta (Adriatic Sea, Italy) and the Huanghe River delta (Bohai Sea, China), Chin. J. Oceanol. Limn., 11, 193–206, 1993.
Masina, M. and Ciavola, P.: Analisi dei livelli marini estremi e delle acque alte lungo il litorale ravennate, Studi costieri, 18, 87–101, 2011.
Nicholls, R. J. and Cazenave, A.: Sea-level rise and its impact on coastal zones, Science, 328, 1517–1520, 2010.
Nicholls, R. J., Hoozemans, F. M., and Marchand, M.: Increasing flood risk and wetland losses due to global sea-level rise: regional and global analyses, Glob. Environ. Change, 9, S69–S87, 1999.
Perini, L. and Calabrese, L.: Il sistema mare-costa dell'Emilia-Romagna, vol. 20, Pendragon, Bologna, Italy, 2010.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Deserti, M., Valentini, A., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: Le mareggiate e gli impatti sulla costa in Emilia-Romagna, 1946–2010, edited by: Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Deserti, M., Valentini, M., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C., Regione Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy, 2011.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Salerno, G., and Luciani, P.: Sea-flood hazard mapping in Emilia-Romagna, in: Atti della 7th EUREGEO Conference, 12–15 June 2012, Bologna, Italy, vol. 1, 334–335, 2012.
Perini, L., Calabrese, L., Salerno, G., Ciavola, P., and Armaroli, C.: Evaluation of coastal vulnerability to flooding: comparison of two different methodologies adopted by the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 181–194, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-181-2016, 2016.
Pieri, M. and Groppi, G.: Subsurface geological structure of the Po Plain, Progetto Finalizzato Geodinamica/Sottoprogetto Modello Strutturale, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italian CNR, Bologna, Italy, 414 pp., 1981.
Pirazzoli, P.: Bora e acqua alta, Acqua & Aria, 10, 1115–1118, 1981.
Raucoules, D., Le Cozannet, G., Wöppelmann, G., De Michele, M., Gravelle, M., Daag, A., and Marcos, M.: High nonlinear urban ground motion in Manila (Philippines) from 1993 to 2010 observed by DInSAR: implications for sea-level measurement, Remote Sens. Environ., 139, 386–397, 2013.
Riahi, K., Grübler, A., and Nakicenovic, N.: Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization, Technol.Forecast. Soc., 74, 887–935, 2007.
Ricci Lucchi, F., Colalongo, M. L., Cremonini, G., Gasperi, G., Iaccarino, S., Papani, G., Raffi, S., and Rio, D.: Evoluzione sedimentaria e paleogeografica nel margine appenninico, Guida alla geologia del margine appenninico-padano, Soc. Geol. It., 7, 17–46, 1982.
Salerno, G., Perini, L., Calabrese, L., and Luciani, P.: Mapping of flood risk in Emilia-Romagna coastal areas, in: LXXXVI Congresso della Società Geologica Italiana, Rende (CS), Italy, https://doi.org/10.13140/2.1.1703.7766, 2012.
Slangen, A., Adloff, F., Jevrejeva, S., Leclercq, P., Marzeion, B., Wada, Y., and Winkelmann, R.: A review of recent updates of sea-level projections at global and regional scales, Surveys in Geophysics, 38, 385–406, 2017.
Spada, G. and Galassi, G.: New estimates of secular sea–level rise from tide gauge data and GIA modeling, Geophys. J. Int., 191, 1067–1094, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2012.05663.x, 2012.
Stocchi, P. and Spada, G.: Influence of glacial isostatic adjustment upon current sea level variations in the Mediterranean, Tectonophysics, 474, 56–68, 2009.
Teatini, P., Ferronato, M., Gambolati, G., Bertoni, W., and Gonella, M.: A century of land subsidence in Ravenna, Italy, Environ. Geol., 47, 831–846, 2005.
Teatini, P., Castelletto, N., Ferronato, M., Gambolati, G., Janna, C., Cairo, E., Marzorati, D., Colombo, D., Ferretti, A., Bagliani, A., and Bottazzi, F.: Geomechanical response to seasonal gas storage in depleted reservoirs: A case study in the Po River basin, Italy, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 116, F02002, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JF001793, 2011a.
Teatini, P., Tosi, L., and Strozzi, T.: Quantitative evidence that compaction of Holocene sediments drives the present land subsidence of the Po Delta, Italy, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 116, B08407, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JB008122, 2011b.
Trincardi, F., Barbanti, A., Bastianini, M., Benetazzo, A., Cavaleri, L., Chiggiato, J., Papa, A., Pomaro, A., Sclavo, M., Tosi, L., and Umgiesser, G.: The 1966 flooding of Venice: What time taught us for the future, Oceanography, 29, 178–186, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2016.87, 2016.
Van Vuuren, D. P., Den Elzen, M. G., Lucas, P. L., Eickhout, B., Strengers, B. J., van Ruijven, B., Wonink, S., and van Houdt, R.: Stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at low levels: an assessment of reduction strategies and costs, Climatic Change, 81, 119–159, 2007.
Veggiani, A.: L'ottimo climatico medievale in Europa: testimonianze lungo la fascia costiera Padano-Adriatica, Studi Romagnoli, 37, 3–26, 1986.
Wang, J., Gao, W., Xu, S., and Yu, L.: Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges on the coastal areas of Shanghai, China, Climatic change, 115, 537–558, 2012.
Wessel, P., Smith, W. H., Scharroo, R., Luis, J., and Wobbe, F.: Generic Mapping Tools: improved version released, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 94, 409–410, 2013.
Wolff, C., Vafeidis, A. T., Lincke, D., Marasmi, C., and Hinkel, J.: Effects of Scale and Input Data on Assessing the Future Impacts of Coastal Flooding: An Application of DIVA for the Emilia-Romagna Coast, Frontiers in Marine Science, 3, 41, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00041, 2016.
Short summary
The Emilia-Romagna coastal plain is a low-land, highly urbanised area that will be significantly impacted by climate change. To plan adequate mitigation measures, reliable sea-level scenarios are needed. Here we suggests a method for evaluating the combined effects of sea-level rise and land subsidence in the year 2100, in terms of the increase in floodable areas during sea storms. The results allow for a regional assessment and indicate a significant local variability in the factors involved.
The Emilia-Romagna coastal plain is a low-land, highly urbanised area that will be significantly...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint