Articles | Volume 16, issue 8
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1979–1997, 2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
29 Aug 2016
Research article | 29 Aug 2016
Evaluation of the search and rescue LEEWAY model in the Tyrrhenian Sea: a new point of view
Antonia Di Maio et al.
No articles found.
Alberto Ribotti, Roberto Sorgente, Federica Pessini, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, and Mireno Borghini
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 4187–4199,Short summary
Over 1468 hydrological vertical profiles were acquired in 21 years in the Mediterranean Sea. This allowed us to follow the diffusion of the Western Mediterranean Transient along all western seas or make some important repetitions across straits, channels, or at defined locations. These data are now available in four open-access online datasets, including profiles of water temperature, conductivity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll α fluorescence, and, after 2004, turbidity and pH.
Alberto Ribotti, Roberto Sorgente, and Mireno Borghini
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1287–1294,Short summary
From May 2000 to January 2004 seven cruises in the Sea of Sardinia collected physical, chemical and biological data. They contributed to knowledge of the local circulation and its interaction with the general Mediterranean one. Accurate and sustained quality assurance for physical sensors was ensured through pre- and postcruise calibration (described here) and verified during cruises by redundant sensors and instruments. Hydrological data are in two open-access datasets in the SEANOE repository.
Giovanni Coppini, Palmalisa Marra, Rita Lecci, Nadia Pinardi, Sergio Cretì, Mario Scalas, Luca Tedesco, Alessandro D'Anca, Leopoldo Fazioli, Antonio Olita, Giuseppe Turrisi, Cosimo Palazzo, Giovanni Aloisio, Sandro Fiore, Antonio Bonaduce, Yogesh Vittal Kumkar, Stefania Angela Ciliberti, Ivan Federico, Gianandrea Mannarini, Paola Agostini, Roberto Bonarelli, Sara Martinelli, Giorgia Verri, Letizia Lusito, Davide Rollo, Arturo Cavallo, Antonio Tumolo, Tony Monacizzo, Marco Spagnulo, Rorberto Sorgente, Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Marina Tonani, Massimiliano Drudi, Paola Nassisi, Laura Conte, Laura Panzera, Antonio Navarra, and Giancarlo Negro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 533–547,Short summary
SeaConditions aims to support the users by providing the environmental information in due time and with adequate accuracy in the marine and coastal environments, enforcing users' sea situational awareness. SeaConditions consists of a web and mobile application for the provision of meteorological and oceanographic observation and forecasting products. The iOS/Android apps were downloaded by more than 105 000 users and more than 100 000 users have visited the web version (www.sea-conditions.com).
Andrea Cucco, Giovanni Quattrocchi, Antonio Olita, Leopoldo Fazioli, Alberto Ribotti, Matteo Sinerchia, Costanza Tedesco, and Roberto Sorgente
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 1553–1569,Short summary
This work explored the importance of considering the tidal dynamics when modelling the general circulation in the Messina Strait, a narrow passage connecting the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian Sea sub-basins in the Western Mediterranean Sea. The results highlight that tidal dynamics deeply impact the reproduction of the instantaneous and residual circulation pattern, waters thermohaline properties and transport dynamics both inside the Messina Strait and in the surrounding coastal and open waters.
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal HazardsModelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvementModelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructureHistorical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami eventMultilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal floodingReconstruction of wind and surge of the 1906 storm tide at the German North Sea coastDeveloping a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, ItalyStorm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approachCompound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of ShanghaiGenerating reliable estimates of tropical-cyclone-induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracksThe role of heat wave events in the occurrence and persistence of thermal stratification in the southern North SeaTsunami hazard in Lombok and Bali, Indonesia, due to the Flores back-arc thrustReal-time coastal flood hazard assessment using DEM-based hydrogeomorphic classifiersSimulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden SL1 landslide (Southwestern of the Svalbard Islands)Rapid tsunami force prediction by mode-decomposition-based surrogate modelingWind-Wave Characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coastIdentification and ranking of volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast AsiaCharacteristics of two tsunamis generated by successive Mw 7.4 and Mw 8.1 earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands on 4 March 2021Mesoscale simulation of typhoon-generated storm surge: methodology and Shanghai case studySubmarine landslide source modeling using the 3D slope stability analysis method for the 2018 Palu, Sulawesi, tsunamiCharacteristics and beach safety knowledge of beachgoers on unpatrolled surf beaches in AustraliaRobust uncertainty quantification of the volume of tsunami ionospheric holes for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake: towards low-cost satellite-based tsunami warning systemsA coupled modelling system to assess the effect of Mediterranean storms under climate changeCorrelation of wind waves and sea level variations on the coast of the seasonally ice-covered Gulf of FinlandThe role of morphodynamics in predicting coastal flooding from storms on a dissipative beach with sea level rise conditionsMultilayer modelling of waves generated by explosive subaqueous volcanismTime-dependent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for Western Sumatra, Indonesia, Using Space-Time Earthquake Rupture Modelling and Stochastic Source ScenariosStatistical estimation of spatial wave extremes for tropical cyclones from small data samples: validation of the STM-E approach using long-term synthetic cyclone data for the Caribbean SeaDevelopment of damage curves for buildings near La Rochelle during storm Xynthia based on insurance claims and hydrodynamic simulationsInvestigating the interaction of waves and river discharge during compound flooding at Breede Estuary, South AfricaStill normal? Near-real-time evaluation of storm surge events in the context of climate changeThe influence of infragravity waves on the safety of coastal defences: a case study of the Dutch Wadden SeaAssessment of potential beach erosion risk and impact of coastal zone development: a case study on Bongpo–Cheonjin BeachCharacteristics and coastal effects of a destructive marine storm in the Gulf of Naples (southern Italy)Probabilistic, high-resolution tsunami predictions in northern Cascadia by exploiting sequential design for efficient emulationTowards using state-of-the-art climate models to help constrain estimates of unprecedented UK storm surgesReview article: Extreme marine events revealed by lagoonal sedimentary records in Ghar El Melh during the last 2500 years in the northeast of TunisiaExploring the partial use of the Mo.S.E. system as effective adaptation to rising flood frequency of VeniceVariable-resolution building exposure modelling for earthquake and tsunami scenario-based risk assessment: an application case in Lima, PeruThe Mw 7.5 Tadine (Maré, Loyalty Islands) earthquake and related tsunami of 5 December 2018: seismotectonic context and numerical modelingTidal flood area mapping in the face of climate change scenarios: case study in a tropical estuary in the Brazilian semi-arid regionDistribution of coastal high water level during extreme events around the UK and Irish coastsOccurrence of pressure-forced meteotsunami events in the eastern Yellow Sea during 2010–2019Characteristics of joint heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast in 1961–2020Partitioning the uncertainty contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding at a macrotidal siteTsunami heights and limits in 1945 along the Makran coast estimated from testimony gathered 7 decades later in Gwadar, Pasni and OrmaraSea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)Extreme floods of Venice: characteristics, dynamics, past and future evolution (review article)The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue)Estimation of the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surges in South Korea using tidal-gauge data
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878,Short summary
Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609,Short summary
Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530,Short summary
The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515,Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432,Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400,Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, and A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2379,Short summary
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Qinghua Ye, Elisa Ragno, Jeremy Bricker, Ganquan Mao, Jinkai Tan, Jun Wang, Qian Ke, Shuai Wang, and Ralf Toumi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2347–2358,Short summary
A hydrodynamic model and copula methodology were used to set up a joint distribution of the peak water level and the inland rainfall during tropical cyclone periods, and to calculate the marginal contributions of the individual drivers. The results indicate that the relative sea level rise has significantly amplified the peak water level. The astronomical tide is the leading driver, followed by the contribution from the storm surge.
Tim Willem Bart Leijnse, Alessio Giardino, Kees Nederhoff, and Sofia Caires
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1863–1891,Short summary
Deriving reliable estimates of design conditions resulting from tropical cyclones is a challenge of high relevance to coastal engineering. Here, having few historical observations is overcome by using the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE) to create thousands of synthetic realizations, representative of 1000 years of tropical cyclone activity for the Bay of Bengal. The use of synthetic tracks is shown to provide more reliable wind speed, storm surge and wave estimates.
Wei Chen, Joanna Staneva, Sebastian Grayek, Johannes Schulz-Stellenfleth, and Jens Greinert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1683–1698,Short summary
This study links the occurrence and persistence of density stratification in the southern North Sea to the increased number of extreme marine heat waves. The study further identified the role of the cold spells at the early stage of a year to the intensity of thermal stratification in summer. In a broader context, the research will have fundamental significance for further discussion of the secondary effects of heat wave events, such as in ecosystems, fisheries, and sediment dynamics.
Raquel P. Felix, Judith A. Hubbard, Kyle E. Bradley, Karen H. Lythgoe, Linlin Li, and Adam D. Switzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1665–1682,Short summary
The Flores Thrust lies along the north coasts of Bali and Lombok. We model how an earthquake on this fault could trigger a tsunami that would impact the regional capital cities of Mataram and Denpasar. We show that for 3–5 m of slip on the fault (a Mw 7.5–7.9+ earthquake), the cities would experience a wave ca. 1.6–2.7 and ca. 0.6–1.4 m high, arriving in < 9 and ca. 23–27 min, respectively. They would also experience subsidence of 20–40 cm, resulting in long-term exposure to coastal hazards.
Keighobad Jafarzadegan, David F. Muñoz, Hamed Moftakhari, Joseph L. Gutenson, Gaurav Savant, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1419–1435,Short summary
The high population settled in coastal regions and the potential damage imposed by coastal floods highlight the need for improving coastal flood hazard assessment techniques. This study introduces a topography-based approach for rapid estimation of flood hazard areas in the Savannah River delta. Our validation results demonstrate that, besides the high efficiency of the proposed approach, the estimated areas accurately overlap with reference flood maps.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
The landslide multilayer HySEA numerical model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden SL1 landslide provide new insights in factors like sliding mechanism and the bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values, shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study will be useful to provide new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Kenta Tozato, Shinsuke Takase, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Yu Otake, Yo Fukutani, Kazuya Nojima, Masaaki Sakuraba, and Hiromu Yokosu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1267–1285,Short summary
This study presents a novel framework for rapid tsunami force predictions through the application of mode-decomposition-based surrogate modeling with 2D–3D coupled numerical simulations. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework to one of the tsunami-affected areas during the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
The study presents the application of a high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting in the Emilia Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting the coastal impacts.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail F. Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Yuchen Wang, Mohammad Heidarzadeh, Kenji Satake, and Gui Hu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1073–1082,Short summary
Tsunami waveforms contain the features of its source, propagation path, and local topography. On 4 March 2021, two tsunamis were generated by earthquakes in the Kermadec Islands, New Zealand, within 2 h. This rare case gives us a valuable opportunity to study the characteristics of two tsunamis. We analyzed the records of two tsunamis at tide gauges with spectral analysis tools. It is found that two tsunamis superpose during the few hours after the arrival of the second tsunami.
Shuyun Dong, Wayne J. Stephenson, Sarah Wakes, Zhongyuan Chen, and Jianzhong Ge
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 931–945,Short summary
Mesoscale simulation provides a general approach that could be implemented to fulfill the purpose of planning and has relatively low requirements for computation time and data while still providing reasonable accuracy. The method is generally applicable to all coastal cities around the world for examining the effect of future climate change on typhoon-generated storm surge even where historical observed data are inadequate or not available.
Chatuphorn Somphong, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, Tsuyoshi Nagasawa, Yuya Narita, Ryunosuke Tawatari, Shohei Iwai, Yukio Mabuchi, Saneiki Fujita, Shuji Moriguchi, Kenjiro Terada, Cipta Athanasius, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 891–907,Short summary
The majority of past research used hypothesized landslides to simulate tsunamis, but they were still unable to properly explain the observed data. In this study, submarine landslides were simulated by using a slope-failure-theory-based numerical model for the first time. The findings were verified with post-event field observational data. They indicated the potential presence of submarine landslide sources in the southern part of the bay and were consistent with the observational tsunamis.
Lea Uebelhoer, William Koon, Mitchell D. Harley, Jasmin C. Lawes, and Robert W. Brander
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 909–926,Short summary
Beachgoers at unpatrolled Australian beaches were surveyed to gain an understanding of their demographics, beach safety knowledge, and behaviour. Most visited unpatrolled beaches out of convenience and because they wanted to visit a quiet location. Despite being infrequent beachgoers, with poor swimming and hazard identification skills, most intended to enter the water. Authorities should go beyond the
swim between the flagssafety message, as people will always swim at unpatrolled beaches.
Ryuichi Kanai, Masashi Kamogawa, Toshiyasu Nagao, Alan Smith, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 849–868,Short summary
The air pressure created by a tsunami causes a depression in the electron density in the ionosphere. The depression is measured at sparsely distributed, moving GPS satellite locations. We provide an estimate of the volume of the depression. When applied to the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake in Japan, our method can warn of a tsunami event within 15 min of the earthquake, even when using only 5 % of the data. Thus satellite-based warnings could be implemented across the world with our approach.
Riccardo Alvise Mel, Teresa Lo Feudo, Massimo Miceli, Salvatore Sinopoli, and Mario Maiolo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Manuscript not accepted for further reviewShort summary
In this work we present a coupled modelling system to compute the wind climate and the hydrodynamic two-dimensional field in coastal areas, with particular reference to the Marine Experimental Station of Capo Tirone (Italy). We combined sea level rise and extreme storm projections with the most recent georeferenced territorial data.
Milla M. Johansson, Jan-Victor Björkqvist, Jani Särkkä, Ulpu Leijala, and Kimmo K. Kahma
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 813–829,Short summary
We analysed the correlation of sea level and wind waves at a coastal location in the Gulf of Finland using tide gauge data, wave measurements, and wave simulations. The correlation was positive for southwesterly winds and negative for northeasterly winds. Probabilities of high total water levels (sea level + wave crest) are underestimated if sea level and waves are considered independent. Suitably chosen copula functions can account for the dependence.
Jairo E. Cueto, Luis J. Otero Díaz, Silvio R. Ospino-Ortiz, and Alec Torres-Freyermuth
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 713–728,Short summary
We investigate the importance of morphodynamics on flooding estimation during storms with sea level rise conditions on a microtidal beach. XBeach and SWAN were the numerical models used to test several case studies. The results indicate that numerical modeling of flooding should be approached by considering morphodynamics; ignoring them can underestimate flooding by ~ 15 %. Moreover, beach erosion and flooding are intensified by sea level rise and high tides in ~ 69 % and ~ 65 %, respectively.
Matthew W. Hayward, Colin N. Whittaker, Emily M. Lane, William L. Power, Stéphane Popinet, and James D. L. White
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 617–637,Short summary
Volcanic eruptions can produce tsunamis through multiple mechanisms. We present validation cases for a numerical method used in simulating waves caused by submarine explosions: a laboratory flume experiment and waves generated by explosions at field scale. We then demonstrate the use of the scheme for simulating analogous volcanic eruptions, illustrating the resulting wavefield. We show that this scheme models such dispersive sources more proficiently than standard tsunami models.
Ario Muhammad, Katsuichiro Goda, and Maximilian J. Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Preprint under review for NHESSShort summary
This study develops a novel framework of time-dependent (TD) probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) combining a total of ≥ 100,000 spatiotemporal earthquakes (EQ) rupture models and 6,300 probabilistic tsunami simulations to evaluate the tsunami hazards and compare them with the time-independent (TI) PTHA results. The proposed model can capture the uncertainty of future TD tsunami hazards and produces slightly higher hazard estimates than the TI model for short-term periods (< 30 years).
Ryota Wada, Jeremy Rohmer, Yann Krien, and Philip Jonathan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 431–444,Short summary
Characterizing extreme wave environments caused by tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea near Guadeloupe is difficult because cyclones rarely pass near the location of interest. STM-E (space-time maxima and exposure) model utilizes wave data during cyclones on a spatial neighbourhood. Long-duration wave data generated from a database of synthetic tropical cyclones are used to evaluate the performance of STM-E. Results indicate STM-E provides estimates with small bias and realistic uncertainty.
Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Jeremy D. Bricker, Remi Meynadier, Trang Minh Duong, Rosh Ranasinghe, and Sebastiaan N. Jonkman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 345–360,Short summary
Extratropical cyclones are one of the major causes of coastal floods in Europe and the world. Understanding the development process and the flooding of storm Xynthia, together with the damages that occurred during the storm, can help to forecast future losses due to other similar storms. In the present paper, an analysis of shallow water variables (flood depth, velocity, etc.) or coastal variables (significant wave height, energy flux, etc.) is done in order to develop damage curves.
Sunna Kupfer, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Lara van Niekerk, Melanie Lück-Vogel, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 187–205,Short summary
In coastal regions, flooding can occur from combined tides, storms, river discharge, and waves. Effects of waves are commonly neglected when assessing flooding, although these may strongly contribute to extreme water levels. We find that waves combined with tides and river discharge at Breede Estuary, South Africa, increased flood extent and depth and caused earlier flooding than when waves were neglected. This highlights the need to consider all major flood drivers in future flood assessments.
Xin Liu, Insa Meinke, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 97–116,Short summary
Storm surges represent a threat to low-lying coastal areas. In the aftermath of severe events, it is often discussed whether the events were unusual. Such information is not readily available from observations but needs contextualization with long-term statistics. An approach that provides such information in near real time was developed and implemented for the German coast. It is shown that information useful for public and scientific debates can be provided in near real time.
Christopher H. Lashley, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Jentsje van der Meer, Jeremy D. Bricker, and Vincent Vuik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1–22,Short summary
Many coastlines around the world have shallow foreshores (e.g. salt marshes and mudflats) that reduce storm waves and the risk of coastal flooding. However, most of the studies that tried to quantify this effect have excluded the influence of very long waves, which often dominate in shallow water. Our newly developed framework addresses this oversight and suggests that safety along these coastlines may be overestimated, since these very long waves are largely neglected in flood risk assessments.
Changbin Lim, Tae Kon Kim, Sahong Lee, Yoon Jeong Yeon, and Jung Lyul Lee
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3827–3842,Short summary
This study aimed to quantitatively assess erosion risk. Methods for assessing each potential were proposed, and the corresponding erosion risk was calculated by introducing a combined potential erosion risk curve presenting the erosion consequence. In addition the method for verifying the risk was examined for the east coast of South Korea. We believe that our study makes a significant contribution to the literature and plays a key role in identifying methods that prevent erosion.
Gaia Mattei, Diana Di Luccio, Guido Benassai, Giorgio Anfuso, Giorgio Budillon, and Pietro Aucelli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3809–3825,Short summary
This study examines the characteristics of a destructive marine storm in the strongly inhabited coastal area of the Gulf of Naples, along the Italian coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea, which is highly vulnerable to marine storms due to the accelerated relative sea level rise trend and the increased anthropogenic impact on the coastal area. Finally, a first assessment of the return period of this event was evaluated using local press reports on damage to urban furniture and port infrastructures.
Dimitra M. Salmanidou, Joakim Beck, Peter Pazak, and Serge Guillas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3789–3807,Short summary
The potential of large-magnitude earthquakes in Cascadia poses a significant threat over a populous region of North America. We use statistical emulation to assess the probabilistic tsunami hazard from such events in the region of the city of Victoria, British Columbia. The emulators are built following a sequential design approach for information gain over the input space. To predict the hazard at coastal locations of the region, two families of potential seabed deformation are considered.
Tom Howard and Simon David Paul Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3693–3712,Short summary
We use a computer model to simulate storm surges around the coast of the United Kingdom. The model is based on the physics of the atmosphere and oceans. We hope that this will help us to better quantify extreme events: even bigger than those that have been seen in the tide gauge record. Our model simulates events which are comparable to the catastrophic 1953 storm surge. Model simulations have the potential to reduce the uncertainty in inferences of the most extreme surge return levels.
Balkis Samah Kohila, Laurent Dezileau, Soumaya Boussetta, Tarek Melki, and Nejib Kallel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3645–3661,Short summary
The Tunisian coast has been historically affected by extreme marine submersion events resulting from storms or tsunamis. To establish adaptation and mitigation strategies, it is essential to study these events in terms of spatial and temporal variability. Using a geological archive (sediment cores and surface sediments) retrieved from this coastal area of Tunisia, we present a reconstruction of past marine submersion events over the last 2500 years.
Riccardo A. Mel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3629–3644,Short summary
The present study investigates the hydrodynamics of the Venice lagoon if a partial use of the Mo.S.E. system (i.e. by closing the Lido inlet only) will be adopted. A linear relationship is obtained between the seaward tidal amplitude and the reduction of the sea level peak at Venice, Burano, and Chioggia. Tidal period and wind have been accounted for. Two-thirds of the flood events can be effectively mitigated by such an operation under relative sea level rise scenarios up to +0.4 m.
Juan Camilo Gomez-Zapata, Nils Brinckmann, Sven Harig, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano Pittore, Fabrice Cotton, and Andrey Babeyko
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3599–3628,Short summary
We present variable-resolution boundaries based on central Voronoi tessellations (CVTs) to spatially aggregate building exposure models and physical vulnerability assessment. Their geo-cell sizes are inversely proportional to underlying distributions that account for the combination between hazard intensities and exposure proxies. We explore their efficiency and associated uncertainties in risk–loss estimations and mapping from decoupled scenario-based earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Maxime Duphil, Jérôme Lefèvre, Jérôme Aucan, Pierre Lebellegard, Bruce Thomas, Céline Bachelier, and David Varillon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3489–3508,Short summary
This study deals with the 5 December 2018 tsunami in New Caledonia and Vanuatu (southwestern Pacific) triggered by a Mw 7.5 earthquake that occurred southeast of Maré, Loyalty Islands, and was widely felt in the region. Numerical modeling results of the tsunami using a non-uniform and a uniform slip model compared to real tide gauge records and observations are globally well correlated for the uniform slip model, especially in far-field locations.
Paulo Victor N. Araújo, Venerando E. Amaro, Leonlene S. Aguiar, Caio C. Lima, and Alexandre B. Lopes
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3353–3366,Short summary
The approach of this work is a tidal flood risk mapping methodology for climate change scenarios in a semi-arid region with a strong environmental and social appeal. The study area has been suffering severe consequences from flooding by tides in recent years. High-geodetic-precision data, together with tidal return period statistics and data from current sea level rise scenarios, were used. This case study can serve as a basis for future management actions and as a model to be copied.
Julia Rulent, Lucy M. Bricheno, J. A. Mattias Green, Ivan D. Haigh, and Huw Lewis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3339–3351,Short summary
High coastal total water levels (TWLs) can lead to flooding and hazardous conditions for coastal communities and environment. In this research we are using numerical models to study the interactions between the three main components of the TWL (waves, tides, and surges) on UK and Irish coasts during winter 2013/14. The main finding of this research is that extreme waves and surges can indeed happen together, even at high tide, but they often occurred simultaneously 2–3 h before high tide.
Myung-Seok Kim, Seung-Buhm Woo, Hyunmin Eom, and Sung Hyup You
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3323–3337,Short summary
We present spatial and temporal trends of meteotsunami occurrence in the eastern Yellow Sea over the past decade (2010–2019). Also, the improved meteotsunami monitoring/warning system was proposed based on occurrence characteristics of an air pressure disturbance and meteotsunami on the classified meteotsunami events. The guidance regarding the operation period, potential hot spot, and risk level of the meteotsunamis will be helpful to monitoring/warning system operators.
Mika Rantanen, Kirsti Jylhä, Jani Särkkä, Jani Räihä, and Ulpu Leijala
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript not acceptedShort summary
Using sea level and precipitation observations, we analysed the meteorological characteristics of days when heavy precipitation and high sea level occur simultaneously in Finland. We found that around 5 % of all heavy precipitation and high sea level events on the Finnish coast are so called compound events when they both occur simultaneously, and these events were associated with close passages of mid-latitude cyclones. Our results act as a basis for compound flooding research in Finland.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
We quantify the influence of wave/wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres town-French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be a valuable tool to explore and characterize uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Hira Ashfaq Lodhi, Shoaib Ahmed, and Haider Hasan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3085–3096,Short summary
The study summarizes historical accounts, eyewitness accounts and newspaper items to report the impact of the 1945 tsunami along the Makran coast of Pakistan. A field survey conducted in Gwadar, Pasni and Ormara quantifies inundation parameters in the three cities, using the landmarks reported in eyewitness accounts and newspaper items. The quantification of runup and inundation extents is based either on the field survey or on old maps.
Davide Zanchettin, Sara Bruni, Fabio Raicich, Piero Lionello, Fanny Adloff, Alexey Androsov, Fabrizio Antonioli, Vincenzo Artale, Eugenio Carminati, Christian Ferrarin, Vera Fofonova, Robert J. Nicholls, Sara Rubinetti, Angelo Rubino, Gianmaria Sannino, Giorgio Spada, Rémi Thiéblemont, Michael Tsimplis, Georg Umgiesser, Stefano Vignudelli, Guy Wöppelmann, and Susanna Zerbini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2643–2678,Short summary
Relative sea level in Venice rose by about 2.5 mm/year in the past 150 years due to the combined effect of subsidence and mean sea-level rise. We estimate the likely range of mean sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 due to climate changes to be between about 10 and 110 cm, with an improbable yet possible high-end scenario of about 170 cm. Projections of subsidence are not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they can increase the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level rise.
Piero Lionello, David Barriopedro, Christian Ferrarin, Robert J. Nicholls, Mirko Orlić, Fabio Raicich, Marco Reale, Georg Umgiesser, Michalis Vousdoukas, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2705–2731,Short summary
In this review we describe the factors leading to the extreme water heights producing the floods of Venice. We discuss the different contributions, their relative importance, and the resulting compound events. We highlight the role of relative sea level rise and the observed past and very likely future increase in extreme water heights, showing that they might be up to 160 % higher at the end of the 21st century than presently.
Georg Umgiesser, Marco Bajo, Christian Ferrarin, Andrea Cucco, Piero Lionello, Davide Zanchettin, Alvise Papa, Alessandro Tosoni, Maurizio Ferla, Elisa Coraci, Sara Morucci, Franco Crosato, Andrea Bonometto, Andrea Valentini, Mirko Orlić, Ivan D. Haigh, Jacob Woge Nielsen, Xavier Bertin, André Bustorff Fortunato, Begoña Pérez Gómez, Enrique Alvarez Fanjul, Denis Paradis, Didier Jourdan, Audrey Pasquet, Baptiste Mourre, Joaquín Tintoré, and Robert J. Nicholls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2679–2704,Short summary
The city of Venice relies crucially on a good storm surge forecast to protect its population and cultural heritage. In this paper, we provide a state-of-the-art review of storm surge forecasting, starting from examples in Europe and focusing on the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice. We discuss the physics of storm surge, as well as the particular aspects of Venice and new techniques in storm surge modeling. We also give recommendations on what a future forecasting system should look like.
Piero Lionello, Robert J. Nicholls, Georg Umgiesser, and Davide Zanchettin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2633–2641,Short summary
Venice is an iconic place, and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural value is at risk. The threat posed by floods has dramatically increased in recent decades and is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. There is a need to better understand the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes and to develop adaptive planning strategies appropriate for present uncertainty, which might not be substantially reduced in the near future.
Sang-Guk Yum, Hsi-Hsien Wei, and Sung-Hwan Jang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2611–2631,Short summary
Developed statistical models to predict the non-exceedance probability of extreme storm surge-induced typhoons. Various probability distribution models were applied to find the best fitting to empirical storm-surge data.
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Meteocean and environmental forecasting is increasingly being used in operational decision-making in the sea for demographic, geographic and strategic applications. It also used to force the stochastic models used for search and rescue planning. The stochastic models have many limitations relating to the leeway calculation, and we tried to overcome them; we hope to contribute by providing leeway drift formulae for practical use.
Meteocean and environmental forecasting is increasingly being used in operational...