Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 853–861, 2015

Special issue: Landslide Prediction & Forecasting

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 853–861, 2015

Research article 16 Apr 2015

Research article | 16 Apr 2015

Technical Note: An operational landslide early warning system at regional scale based on space–time-variable rainfall thresholds

S. Segoni et al.

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Brief communication: Using averaged soil moisture estimates to improve the performances of a regional-scale landslide early warning system
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Quantitative comparison between two different methodologies to define rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting
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Cited articles

Aleotti, P.: A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures, Eng. Geol., 73, 247–265, 2004.
Baum, R. L. and Godt, J. W.: Early warning of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the USA, Landslides, 7, 259–272, 2010.
Bortolotti, V.: The Tuscany–Emilian Apennine, Regional Geological Guidebook, Vol. 4, S.G.I., BEMA Editrice, Milan, 1992 (in Italian).
Cacciamani, E. P., Ferri, M., and Minguzzi, E.: High resolution verification of hydrostatic and non-hydorstatic LAM precipitation forecasts in Italy, in: COSMO newsletter, edited by: Doms, G. and Shatter, U., Vol. II, Offenbach, Germany, 176–186, 2002.
Caine, N.: The rainfall intensity–duration control of shallow landslides and debris flows, Geogr. Ann., 62, 23–27, 1980.
Short summary
We monitor and forecast (with lead times up to 48h) regional-scale landslide hazard with an early warning system (EWS) implemented on a user-friendly WebGIS interface. The EWS detects the most critical rainfall conditions using a mosaic of 25 site-specific thresholds. Moreover, when the rainfall paths recorded by the instruments are compared with the thresholds, the thresholds are shifted in the time axis and adjusted to all possible starting times until the most hazardous scenario is found.
Final-revised paper