Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2025

The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2024-75', Anonymous Referee #1, 23 Jun 2024
  • RC2: 'Review of nhess-2024-75', Anonymous Referee #2, 25 Jun 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (23 Aug 2024) by Uwe Ulbrich
AR by Natalia Korhonen on behalf of the Authors (11 Oct 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (22 Oct 2024) by Uwe Ulbrich
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (13 Nov 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (14 Nov 2024)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (26 Nov 2024) by Uwe Ulbrich
AR by Natalia Korhonen on behalf of the Authors (16 Jan 2025)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (22 Jan 2025) by Uwe Ulbrich
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (23 Feb 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (06 Mar 2025) by Uwe Ulbrich
AR by Natalia Korhonen on behalf of the Authors (13 Mar 2025)  Author's response   Manuscript 
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Short summary
The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
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