Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2025

The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä

Viewed

Total article views: 1,172 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
879 231 62 1,172 10 53 82
  • HTML: 879
  • PDF: 231
  • XML: 62
  • Total: 1,172
  • Supplement: 10
  • BibTeX: 53
  • EndNote: 82
Views and downloads (calculated since 16 May 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 16 May 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,172 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,137 with geography defined and 35 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 28 Jun 2025
Download
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint