Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
04 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 04 Jun 2025
| 04 Jun 2025
The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe
Natalia Korhonen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Otto Hyvärinen
Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
Virpi Kollanus
Lifestyles and Living Environments Unit, Department of Public Health, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Kuopio, Finland
Timo Lanki
Lifestyles and Living Environments Unit, Department of Public Health, Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, Kuopio, Finland
School of Medicine, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
Department of Environmental and Biological Sciences, University of Eastern Finland, Kuopio, Finland
Juha Jokisalo
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
Risto Kosonen
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland
College of Urban Construction, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing, China
David S. Richardson
Forecasts and Services Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
Kirsti Jylhä
Weather and Climate Change Impact Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
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Short summary
The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in...
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