Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2025

The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä

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Cited articles

Ahmed, H., Tamminen, L. M., and Emanuelson, U.: Temperature, productivity, and heat tolerance: Evidence from Swedish dairy production, Clim. Change, 175, 10, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03461-5, 2022. 
Añel, J.A., Fernández-González, M., Labandeira, X., López-Otero, X., and De la Torre, L.: Impact of Cold Waves and Heat Waves on the Energy Production Sector, Atmosphere, 8, 209, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos8110209, 2017. 
Arsad, F. S., Hod, R., Ahmad, N., Ismail, R., Mohamed, N., Baharom, M., Osman, Y., Radi, M. F. M., and Tangang, F.: The Impact of Heatwaves on Mortality and Morbidity and the Associated Vulnerability Factors: A Systematic Review, Int. J. Environ. Res. Pu., 19, 16356, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192316356, 2022. 
Ballester, J., Quijal-Zamorano, M., Méndez Turrubiates, R. F., Pegenaute, F., Herrmann, F. R., Robine, J. M., Basagaña, X., Tonne, C., Antó, J. M., and Achebak, H.: Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nat. Med., 29, 1857–1866, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z, 2023. 
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The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
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