The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe

Korhonen, Natalia; Hyvärinen, Otto; Kollanus, Virpi; Lanki, Timo; Jokisalo, Juha; Kosonen, Risto; Richardson, David S.; Jylhä, Kirsti

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 6

Research article

|

04 Jun 2025

Research article |

| 04 Jun 2025

The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025-supplement

Data sets

Files containing data in Figures 1-7 in the manuscript Korhonen N. et al., "The probabilistic skill of Extended-Range Heat wave forecasts over Europe" N. Korhonen https://doi.org/10.57707/FMI-B2SHARE.372EC54BE8014B399AF3900DD253925A

ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present J. Muñoz Sabater https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac

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Short summary

The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.