Articles | Volume 25, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1865-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Jun 2025
Research article |  | 04 Jun 2025

The probabilistic skill of extended-range heat wave forecasts over Europe

Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä

Data sets

Files containing data in Figures 1-7 in the manuscript Korhonen N. et al., "The probabilistic skill of Extended-Range Heat wave forecasts over Europe" N. Korhonen https://doi.org/10.57707/FMI-B2SHARE.372EC54BE8014B399AF3900DD253925A

ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present J. Muñoz Sabater https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac

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Short summary
The skill of hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days, defined as periods with the 5 d moving average temperature exceeding its local summer 90th percentile over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead, is examined. Forecasts of heat wave days show potential for warning of heat risk 1 to 2 weeks in advance and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves up to 3 weeks ahead, when the heat wave had already begun before forecast issuance.
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