Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Apr 2025
Research article |
| 25 Apr 2025
| 25 Apr 2025
Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling
André Felipe Rocha Silva
Section Hydrology, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais,Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 31270 901, Brazil
Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, Federal University of Minas Gerais,Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 31270 901, Brazil
Heiko Apel
Section Hydrology, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
Section Hydrology, GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geoscience, Potsdam, 14473, Germany
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Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation...
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