Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1501-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 25, issue 4
Research article
 | 
25 Apr 2025
Research article |  | 25 Apr 2025

Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling

André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich

Viewed

Total article views: 1,734 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
1,317 371 46 1,734 132 73 98
  • HTML: 1,317
  • PDF: 371
  • XML: 46
  • Total: 1,734
  • Supplement: 132
  • BibTeX: 73
  • EndNote: 98
Views and downloads (calculated since 13 Nov 2024)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 13 Nov 2024)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,734 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,678 with geography defined and 56 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 24 Nov 2025
Download
Short summary
This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.
Read more
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint