Assessing the impact of early warning and evacuation on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany using agent-based modelling

André Felipe Rocha Silva, Julian Cardoso Eleutério, Heiko Apel, and Heidi Kreibich

Viewed

Total article views: 385 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML	PDF	XML	Total	Supplement	BibTeX	EndNote
284	82	19	385	44	19	22

HTML: 284
PDF: 82
XML: 19
Total: 385
Supplement: 44
BibTeX: 19
EndNote: 22

Views and downloads (calculated since 13 Nov 2024)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2024	95	18	7	120
Dec 2024	70	25	3	98
Jan 2025	59	14	5	78
Feb 2025	23	8	1	32
Mar 2025	17	11	1	29
Apr 2025	20	6	2	28

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 13 Nov 2024)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Nov 2024	95	18	7	120
Dec 2024	70	25	3	98
Jan 2025	59	14	5	78
Feb 2025	23	8	1	32
Mar 2025	17	11	1	29
Apr 2025	20	6	2	28

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 385 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 369 with geography defined and 16 with unknown origin.

Country	#	Views	%


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0


Total:	0
HTML:	0
PDF:	0
XML:	0

Latest update: 25 Apr 2025

Short summary

This work uses agent-based modelling to evaluate the impact of flood warning and evacuation systems on human losses during the 2021 Ahr Valley flood in Germany. While the first flood warning with evacuation instructions is identified as timely, its lack of detail and effectiveness resulted in low public risk awareness. Better dissemination of warnings and improved risk perception and preparedness among the population could reduce casualties by up to 80 %.