Articles | Volume 23, issue 11
Research article
14 Nov 2023
Research article |  | 14 Nov 2023

Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change

Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe

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Cited articles

Angélil, O., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., Alexander, L. V., Stone, D., Donat, M. G., Wehner, M., Shiogama, H., Ciavarella, A., and Christidis, N.: Comparing regional precipitation and temperature extremes in climate model and reanalysis products, Weather Clim. Extrem., 13, 35–43,, 2016. 
Archila Bustos, M. F., Hall, O., Niedomysl, T., and Ernstson, U.: A pixel level evaluation of five multitemporal global gridded population datasets: a case study in Sweden, 1990–2015, Popul. Environ., 42, 255–277,, 2020. 
Atmospheric and Environmental Research & African Risk Capacity: Flood depictions: AER AFED v05r01, (last access: 15 July 2022), March 2022. 
Beal, L. M., Vialard, J., Roxy, M. K., Ravichandran, M, McPhaden, M. J., Feng, M., Lumpkin, R., Unnikrishnan, A. S., Lee, T., Sloyan, B., Andres, M., Subramanian, A. C., Yu, L., Lengaigne, M., Shinoda,T., Annamalai, H., Ummenhofer., C. C., Strutton, P., Masumoto, Y., Tozuka, T., Wiggert, J., Han, W., and Hood, R.: IndOOS-2: A roadmap to sustained observations of the Indian Ocean for 2020-203, CLIVAR-4/2019, GOOS-237, CLIVAR/IOC-GOOS Indian Ocean Region Panel (IORP), 206 pp.,, 2019. 
Bergensia: Red Cross: 90 Percent of Beira in Mozambique Destroyed by Cyclone Idai, (last access: 14 May 2023), 2019. 
Short summary
In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Final-revised paper