Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone  Idai attributable to climate change

Mester, Benedikt; Vogt, Thomas; Bryant, Seth; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja; Schewe, Jacob

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 11

Research article

|

14 Nov 2023

Research article |

| 14 Nov 2023

Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change

Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3467-2023-supplement

Data sets

Data collection for the study "Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change" B. Mester, T. Vogt, S. Bryant, C. Otto, K. Frieler, and J. Schewe https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10038190

GHS population grid multitemporal (1975, 1990, 2000, 2015) R2019A M. Schiavina, S. Freire, and K. MacManus https://doi.org/10.2905/42E8BE89-54FF-464E-BE7B-BF9E64DA5218

REACH Initiative, Mozambique admin level 4 - Beira and Dondo neighbourhood boundaries INGC https://data.humdata.org/dataset/mozambique-admin-level-4-beira-and-dondo-neighbourhood-boundaries

Mozambique, Satellite image Google Maps https://www.google.com/maps/place/Mozambique/@-18.3359987,25.1264933,2875812m/data=! 3m1!1e3!4m6!3m5!1s0x18d4aceae6fd4ac5:0x12bbbfb9ae16a115!8m2!3d-18.665695!4d35.529 562!16zL20vMDR3bGg?entry=ttu

Greater Area of Beira, Mozambique, Satellite image Google Maps https://www.google.com/maps/place/Beira,+Mozambique/@-19.7768616,34.7865512,22273m/d ata=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m6!3m5!1s0x1f2a6a5f5da047c1:0xa1d3dd2e50b3b6e6!8m2!3d-19.831594 9!4d34.8370183!16zL20vMDNtajFk?entry=ttu

Model code and software

TC Idai attribution study - data collection v1.1 (Version v1.1) B. Mester, T. Vogt, S. Bryant, C. Otto, K. Frieler, and J. Schewe https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6907855

Source code for the study "Human displacements from Tropical Cyclone Idai attributable to climate change" B. Mester, T. Vogt, S. Bryant, C. Otto, K. Frieler, and J. Schewe https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10027136

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Short summary

In 2019, Cyclone Idai displaced more than 478 000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 12 600–14 900 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.