Articles | Volume 23, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
16 Jun 2023
Review article |
| 16 Jun 2023
| 16 Jun 2023
Review article: A European perspective on wind and storm damage – from the meteorological background to index-based approaches to assess impacts
Daniel Gliksman
Chair of Meteorology, Institute for Hydrology and Meteorology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Technische Universität Dresden, Pienner Str. 23, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
Chair of Computational Landscape Ecology, Technische Universität Dresden, Helmholtzstr. 10, 01069 Dresden, Germany
Paul Averbeck
iES Landau, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Kaiserslautern-Landau (RPTU), Fortstraße 7, 76829 Landau, Germany
Nico Becker
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Barry Gardiner
Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Albert Ludwigs University, 79106 Freiburg, Germany
Institut Européen de la Forêt Cultivée, 33610 Cestas, France
Valeri Goldberg
Chair of Meteorology, Institute for Hydrology and Meteorology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Technische Universität Dresden, Pienner Str. 23, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
Jens Grieger
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Dörthe Handorf
Research Department Potsdam, Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A45, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Karsten Haustein
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany
now at: Institute for Meteorology, University of Leipzig, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
Alexia Karwat
Meteorological Institute, Universität Hamburg, Grindelberg 5, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Florian Knutzen
Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Fischertwiete 1, 20095 Hamburg, Germany
Hilke S. Lentink
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department of Tropospheric Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany
Rike Lorenz
Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, 12165 Berlin, Germany
Deborah Niermann
Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Straße 135, 63067 Offenbach, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department of Tropospheric Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76021 Karlsruhe, Germany
Ronald Queck
Chair of Meteorology, Institute for Hydrology and Meteorology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Technische Universität Dresden, Pienner Str. 23, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
Astrid Ziemann
Chair of Meteorology, Institute for Hydrology and Meteorology, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Technische Universität Dresden, Pienner Str. 23, 01737 Tharandt, Germany
Christian L. E. Franzke
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan 46241, Republic of Korea
Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Republic of Korea
Related authors
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Europe is regularly affected by compound events and natural hazards that occur simultaneously or with a temporal lag and are connected with disproportional impacts. Within the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/) we investigate the interplay of these events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future, as well as the associated impacts on different socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Joni-Pekka Pietikaeinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
With a team of 20 authors from different countries, we tried to compile the impacts of drought and heat on European forests in the period 2018–2022. This is a research approach that transcends subject and country borders.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-130, 2024
Preprint under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Here we investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river leading to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on day 12.
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2024-16, 2024
Preprint under review for ESD
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in Central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we offer insights into how future heatwaves might spread, persist longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Vera Melinda Galfi, Tommaso Alberti, Lesley De Cruz, Christian L. E. Franzke, and Valerio Lembo
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 31, 185–193, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-185-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-185-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In the online seminar series "Perspectives on climate sciences: from historical developments to future frontiers" (2020–2021), well-known and established scientists from several fields – including mathematics, physics, climate science and ecology – presented their perspectives on the evolution of climate science and on relevant scientific concepts. In this paper, we first give an overview of the content of the seminar series, and then we introduce the written contributions to this special issue.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-16, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-16, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological Loss Index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Schmitz Benjamin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-120, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-120, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Tree fall events have an impact on forests and transport systems. Our study explored tree fall in relation to wind and weather conditions. We used tree fall data along railway lines and meteorological data from ERA5 and radar to build a logistic regression model. We found that high and prolonged wind speeds, wet conditions and high air density increase tree fall risk. These factors might change in the changing climate which in return will change risks for trees, forests and transport.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Andy Richling, Jens Grieger, and Henning W. Rust
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2582, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2582, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The performance of weather and climate prediction systems is variable in time and space. It is of interest how this performance varies in different situations. We provide a decomposition of a skill score –a measure of forecast performance– as a tool for detailed assessment of performance variability to support model development or forecast improvement. The framework is exemplified with decadal forecasts to assess the impact of different ocean states in the North Atlantic on temperature forecast.
Sina Mehrdad, Dörthe Handorf, Ines Höschel, Khalil Karami, Johannes Quaas, Sudhakar Dipu, and Christoph Jacobi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3033, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3033, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Here, we attempt to understand how changes in Europe's environment influence the Arctic's climate. By developing a novel method for atmospheric analysis, we tried to understand how shifts in the Europe's environment can lead to changes in the Arctic. Our findings show the intricate interplay between distinct atmospheric states, enhancing our understanding of their combined impact on the Arctic. Such insights are vital for forecasting future climatic shifts and their worldwide repercussions.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-212, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-212, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena, causing important impacts in vulnerable areas and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Raphael Harry Köhler, Ralf Jaiser, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1071–1086, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-1071-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the local mechanisms of troposphere–stratosphere coupling on seasonal timescales during extended winter in the Northern Hemisphere. The detected tropospheric precursor regions exhibit very distinct mechanisms of coupling to the stratosphere, thus highlighting the importance of the time- and zonally resolved picture. Moreover, this study demonstrates that the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic atmosphere model (ICON) can realistically reproduce troposphere–stratosphere coupling.
Xavier Levine, Ryan Williams, Gareth Marshall, Andrew Orr, Lise Seland Graff, Dörthe Handorf, Alexey Karpechko, Raphael Köhler, René Wijngaard, Nadine Johnston, Hanna Lee, Lars Nieradzik, and Priscilla Mooney
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2741, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2741, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
While the most recent climate projections agree that the Arctic is warming, there remains differences in how much and in other climate variables such as precipitation. This presents a challenge for stakeholders who need to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. We tackle this problem by using the storyline approach to generate four plausible and actionable realisations of end-of-century climate change for the Arctic, spanning its most likely range of variability.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Thomas Spangehl, Michael Borsche, Deborah Niermann, Frank Kaspar, Semjon Schimanke, Susanne Brienen, Thomas Möller, and Maren Brast
Adv. Sci. Res., 20, 109–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-20-109-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The quality of the global reanalysis ERA5, the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 and a successor version (R6G2), the new Copernicus European Regional Re-Analysis (CERRA) and a regional downscaling simulation with COSMO-CLM (HoKliSim-De) is assessed for offshore wind farm planning in the German Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the North Sea. The quality is assessed using in-situ wind measurements at the research platform FINO1 and satellite-based data of the near-surface wind speed as reference.
Olivia Linke, Johannes Quaas, Finja Baumer, Sebastian Becker, Jan Chylik, Sandro Dahlke, André Ehrlich, Dörthe Handorf, Christoph Jacobi, Heike Kalesse-Los, Luca Lelli, Sina Mehrdad, Roel A. J. Neggers, Johannes Riebold, Pablo Saavedra Garfias, Niklas Schnierstein, Matthew D. Shupe, Chris Smith, Gunnar Spreen, Baptiste Verneuil, Kameswara S. Vinjamuri, Marco Vountas, and Manfred Wendisch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9963–9992, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9963-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lapse rate feedback (LRF) is a major driver of the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. It arises because the warming is stronger at the surface than aloft. Several processes can affect the LRF in the Arctic, such as the omnipresent temperature inversion. Here, we compare multimodel climate simulations to Arctic-based observations from a large research consortium to broaden our understanding of these processes, find synergy among them, and constrain the Arctic LRF and AA.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1460, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Europe is regularly affected by compound events and natural hazards that occur simultaneously or with a temporal lag and are connected with disproportional impacts. Within the interdisciplinary project climXtreme (https://climxtreme.net/) we investigate the interplay of these events, their characteristics and changes, intensity, frequency and uncertainties in the past, present and future, as well as the associated impacts on different socio-economic sectors in Germany and Central Europe.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Joni-Pekka Pietikaeinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1463, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
With a team of 20 authors from different countries, we tried to compile the impacts of drought and heat on European forests in the period 2018–2022. This is a research approach that transcends subject and country borders.
Emmanouil Flaounas, Leonardo Aragão, Lisa Bernini, Stavros Dafis, Benjamin Doiteau, Helena Flocas, Suzanne L. Gray, Alexia Karwat, John Kouroutzoglou, Piero Lionello, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Florian Pantillon, Claudia Pasquero, Platon Patlakas, María Ángeles Picornell, Federico Porcù, Matthew D. K. Priestley, Marco Reale, Malcolm J. Roberts, Hadas Saaroni, Dor Sandler, Enrico Scoccimarro, Michael Sprenger, and Baruch Ziv
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 639–661, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-639-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclone detection and tracking methods (CDTMs) have different approaches in defining and tracking cyclone centers. This leads to disagreements on extratropical cyclone climatologies. We present a new approach that combines tracks from individual CDTMs to produce new composite tracks. These new tracks are shown to correspond to physically meaningful systems with distinctive life stages.
Sylvia Sullivan, Behrooz Keshtgar, Nicole Albern, Elzina Bala, Christoph Braun, Anubhav Choudhary, Johannes Hörner, Hilke Lentink, Georgios Papavasileiou, and Aiko Voigt
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3535–3551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3535-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3535-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Clouds absorb and re-emit infrared radiation from Earth's surface and absorb and reflect incoming solar radiation. As a result, they change atmospheric temperature gradients that drive large-scale circulation. To better simulate this circulation, we study how the radiative heating and cooling from clouds depends on model settings like grid spacing; whether we describe convection approximately or exactly; and the level of detail used to describe small-scale processes, or microphysics, in clouds.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Hendrik Feldmann, Etor Lucio-Eceiza, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to assess its added value compared to a 25 km resolution. A new method for severe precipitation detection is used, and the associated synoptic weather types are considered. Our results document the added value of CPM for precipitation representation with higher intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates, and an improved amount and structure, but with an overestimation of the rates.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide evidence that biogeophysical effects of afforestation can counteract the favorable biogeochemical climate effect of reduced CO2 concentrations. By changing the land surface characteristics, afforestation reduces vegetation surface temperatures, resulting in a reduced outgoing longwave radiation in summer, although CO2 concentrations are reduced. Since forests additionally absorb a lot of solar radiation due to their dark surfaces, afforestation has a total warming effect.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Ruksana H. Rimi, Karsten Haustein, Emily J. Barbour, Sarah N. Sparrow, Sihan Li, David C. H. Wallom, and Myles R. Allen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5737–5756, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5737-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall events are major concerns in Bangladesh. Heavy downpours can cause flash floods and damage nearly harvestable crops in pre-monsoon season. While in monsoon season, the impacts can range from widespread agricultural loss, huge property damage, to loss of lives and livelihoods. This paper assesses the role of anthropogenic climate change drivers in changing risks of extreme rainfall events during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons at local sub-regional-scale within Bangladesh.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles and Christian L. E. Franzke
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 1821–1844, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-1821-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Drought affects many regions worldwide, and future climate projections imply that drought severity and frequency will increase. Hence, the impacts of drought on the environment and society will also increase considerably. Monitoring and early warning systems for drought rely on several indicators; however, assessments on how these indicators are linked to impacts are still lacking. Our results show that meteorological indices are best linked to impact occurrences.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Klaus Dethloff, Wieslaw Maslowski, Stefan Hendricks, Younjoo J. Lee, Helge F. Goessling, Thomas Krumpen, Christian Haas, Dörthe Handorf, Robert Ricker, Vladimir Bessonov, John J. Cassano, Jaclyn Clement Kinney, Robert Osinski, Markus Rex, Annette Rinke, Julia Sokolova, and Anja Sommerfeld
The Cryosphere, 16, 981–1005, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-981-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sea ice thickness anomalies during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) winter in January, February and March 2020 were simulated with the coupled Regional Arctic climate System Model (RASM) and compared with CryoSat-2/SMOS satellite data. Hindcast and ensemble simulations indicate that the sea ice anomalies are driven by nonlinear interactions between ice growth processes and wind-driven sea-ice transports, with dynamics playing a dominant role.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Folmer Krikken, Sophie Lewis, Nicholas J. Leach, Flavio Lehner, Kate R. Saunders, Michiel van Weele, Karsten Haustein, Sihan Li, David Wallom, Sarah Sparrow, Julie Arrighi, Roop K. Singh, Maarten K. van Aalst, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Robert Vautard, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Southeastern Australia suffered from disastrous bushfires during the 2019/20 fire season, raising the question whether these have become more likely due to climate change. We found no attributable trend in extreme annual or monthly low precipitation but a clear shift towards more extreme heat. However, this shift is underestimated by the models. Analysing fire weather directly, we found that the chance has increased by at least 30 %, but due to the underestimation it could well be higher.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Thomas Önskog, Christian L. E. Franzke, and Abdel Hannachi
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-141-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a significant impact on seasonal climate and surface weather conditions throughout Europe, North America and the North Atlantic. In this paper, we study a number of linear and nonlinear models for a station-based time series of the daily winter NAO. We find that a class of nonlinear models, including both short and long lags, excellently reproduce the characteristic statistical properties of the NAO. These models can hence be used to simulate the NAO.
Frank Kaspar, Deborah Niermann, Michael Borsche, Stephanie Fiedler, Jan Keller, Roland Potthast, Thomas Rösch, Thomas Spangehl, and Birger Tinz
Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 115–128, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-115-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-115-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Reanalyses are long-term meteorological datasets that are based on numerical weather prediction models and the assimilation of historic observations. The regional model COSMO of Germany’s national meteorological service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) has been used to develop regional reanalyses with spatial resolution of up to 2 km. In this paper, we provide an overview of evaluation results and application examples at the European and national German level with a focus on renewable energy.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 469–490, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
Christoph P. Gatzen, Andreas H. Fink, David M. Schultz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Derechos are widespread, convectively induced severe wind events. A climatology of derechos in Germany is presented. It shows that derechos are not uncommon across the country. Two seasonal peaks indicate a comparable derecho risk in summer and winter. At the same time, we found two different derecho types, a warm- and a cold-season type. We present characteristics of both derecho types that can help forecasters to estimate the potential derecho threat in a given weather situation.
Joaquim G. Pinto and Patrick Ludwig
Clim. Past, 16, 611–626, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-611-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The statistics and characteristics of cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe are analysed for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate conditions. LGM extreme cyclones were more frequent and characterised by less precipitation and stronger wind speeds than pre-industrial analogues. These results agree with the view of a colder and drier Europe during LGM, with little vegetation and affected by frequent dust storms, leading to the buildup of thick loess deposits in Europe.
Ola Haug, Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir, Sigrunn H. Sørbye, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 6, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-1-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Trends in gridded temperature data are commonly assessed independently for each grid cell, ignoring spatial coherencies. This may severely affect the interpretation of the results. This article proposes a space–time model for temperatures that allows for joint assessments of the trend across locations. In a case study of summer season trends in Europe, it is found that the region with a significant trend under spatial coherency is vastly different from that under independent assessments.
Mareike Schuster, Jens Grieger, Andy Richling, Thomas Schartner, Sebastian Illing, Christopher Kadow, Wolfgang A. Müller, Holger Pohlmann, Stephan Pfahl, and Uwe Ulbrich
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 901–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-901-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate predictions are valuable to society as they allow us to estimate climate conditions several years in advance. We analyze the latest version of the German MiKlip prediction system (https://www.fona-miklip.de) and assess the effect of the model resolution on the skill of the system. The increase in the resolution of the system reduces the bias and significantly improves the forecast skill for North Atlantic extratropical winter dynamics for lead times of two to five winters.
Astrid Ziemann, Manuela Starke, and Tina Leiding
Adv. Sci. Res., 16, 85–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-85-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-16-85-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Low-level jets are frequently observed local wind maxima in the nocturnal boundary layer. This phenomenon occurs at hub heights of modern wind turbines and cause challenges for the wind power assessment.
To characterize the dependencies of low-level jets, the micro-scale model HIRVAC2D is applied in the study.
Results of several HIRVAC2D simulations are presented in order to deduce quantitatively the sensitivity of low-level jets to landuse parameters as well as meteorological quantities.
Luca Mathias, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1023–1040, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1023-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Convective systems producing severe winds occasionally affect Europe during wintertime and the majority of these storms develop along well-defined cold fronts of extratropical cyclones. However, on 3 January 2014, a storm formed in a postfrontal air mass over western Europe. This study analyses the prevailing environmental conditions and the predictability of this storm. Our results reveal the difficulty of forecasting cold-season convective storms when they are not associated with a cold front.
Robin Noyelle, Uwe Ulbrich, Nico Becker, and Edmund P. Meredith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 941–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-941-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the formation of the Mediterranean hurricane that developed between Balearic Islands and Sardinia in October 1996, with a particular focus on the influence of sea surface temperature. We show that increased sea surface temperatures lead to greater probabilities of appearance and a greater strength of the resulting hurricane, suggesting that the processes for Mediterranean hurricanes at steady state are very similar to tropical cyclones.
Mark Reyers, Hendrik Feldmann, Sebastian Mieruch, Joaquim G. Pinto, Marianne Uhlig, Bodo Ahrens, Barbara Früh, Kameswarrao Modali, Natalie Laube, Julia Moemken, Wolfgang Müller, Gerd Schädler, and Christoph Kottmeier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 171–187, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-171-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is evaluated. This system has been established to deliver highly resolved forecasts for the timescale of 1 to 10 years for Europe. Evidence of the general potential for regional decadal predictability for the variables temperature, precipitation, and wind speed is provided, but the performance of the prediction system depends on region, variable, and system generation.
Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Sparrow, Sarah F. Kew, Karin van der Wiel, Niko Wanders, Roop Singh, Ahmadul Hassan, Khaled Mohammed, Hammad Javid, Karsten Haustein, Friederike E. L. Otto, Feyera Hirpa, Ruksana H. Rimi, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, David C. H. Wallom, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst river flooding events in recent history. For the large Brahmaputra basin, using precipitation alone as a proxy for flooding might not be appropriate. In this paper we explicitly test this assumption by performing an attribution of both precipitation and discharge as a flooding-related measure to climate change. We find the change in risk to be of similar order of magnitude (between 1 and 2) for both the meteorological and hydrological approach.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Florian Ehmele, Patrick Ludwig, Hilke S. Lentink, Fanni D. Kelemen, Martin Kadlec, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-77, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
To quantify the flooding risk for Europe it is necessary to run hydrological models. As input for these models, a consistent stochastic precipitation dataset is needed. In the present study, a combined approach is presented on how to generate such a dataset based on dynamical downscaling and subsequent bias correction. Empirical quantile mapping was identified as suitable bias correction method as it led to improvements for specific severe river floods as well as in a climatological perspective.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, Helen F. Dacre, Len C. Shaffrey, Kevin I. Hodges, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2991–3006, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2991-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the role of the clustering of extratropical cyclones in driving wintertime wind losses across a large European region. To do this over 900 years of climate model data have been used and analysed. The main conclusion of this work is that cyclone clustering acts to increase wind-driven losses in the winter by 10 %–20 % when compared to the losses from a random series of cyclones, with this specifically being for the higher loss years.
Bijan Fallah, Emmanuele Russo, Walter Acevedo, Achille Mauri, Nico Becker, and Ulrich Cubasch
Clim. Past, 14, 1345–1360, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1345-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We try to test and evaluate an approach for using two main sources of information on the climate of the past: climate model simulations and proxies. This is done via data assimilation (DA), a method that blends these two sources of information in an intelligent way. However, DA and climate models are computationally very expensive. Here, we tested the ability of a computationally affordable DA to reconstruct high-resolution climate fields.
Stella Babian, Jens Grieger, and Ulrich Cubasch
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 18, 6749–6760, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-6749-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
One of the most prominent asymmetric features of the southern hemispheric (SH) circulation is the split jet over Australia and New Zealand in austral winter. We propose a new, hemispherical index that is based on the principal components (PCs) of the zonal wind field for the SH winter. The new PC-based index (PSI) suggests that the SH split jet is strongly associated with the AAO. Furthermore, both flavors of ENSO and the PSA-1 pattern produce favorable conditions for a SH split event.
Jorge Eiras-Barca, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ricardo M. Trigo, Margarida L. R. Liberato, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 91–102, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-91-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper analyses the potential role of atmospheric rivers in the explosive cyclone deepening. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data for 1979–2011, we analyse the concurrence of atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclogenesis over the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins for the extended winter months (ONDJFM).
Astrid Ziemann, Manuela Starke, and Claudia Schütze
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 4165–4190, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4165-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-4165-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
There is a crucial need for adequate data of concentration and wind to close the potential gap in mass balance of CO2. Ground-based line-integrating remote sensing techniques are an ideal tool as they provide the spatially representative CO2 concentration together with wind components within the same voxel structure. An integrated method combination of acoustic and optical systems was applied to measure spatially representative CO2 advection at the grassland Grillenburg site.
Benoit P. Guillod, Richard G. Jones, Andy Bowery, Karsten Haustein, Neil R. Massey, Daniel M. Mitchell, Friederike E. L. Otto, Sarah N. Sparrow, Peter Uhe, David C. H. Wallom, Simon Wilson, and Myles R. Allen
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 1849–1872, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1849-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-1849-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The weather@home climate modelling system uses the computing power of volunteers around the world to generate a very large number of climate model simulations. This is particularly useful when investigating extreme weather events, notably for the attribution of these events to anthropogenic climate change. A new version of weather@home is presented and evaluated, which includes an improved representation of the land surface and increased horizontal resolution over Europe.
Daniel Mitchell, Krishna AchutaRao, Myles Allen, Ingo Bethke, Urs Beyerle, Andrew Ciavarella, Piers M. Forster, Jan Fuglestvedt, Nathan Gillett, Karsten Haustein, William Ingram, Trond Iversen, Viatcheslav Kharin, Nicholas Klingaman, Neil Massey, Erich Fischer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, John Scinocca, Øyvind Seland, Hideo Shiogama, Emily Shuckburgh, Sarah Sparrow, Dáithí Stone, Peter Uhe, David Wallom, Michael Wehner, and Rashyd Zaaboul
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571–583, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This paper provides an experimental design to assess impacts of a world that is 1.5 °C warmer than at pre-industrial levels. The design is a new way to approach impacts from the climate community, and aims to answer questions related to the recent Paris Agreement. In particular the paper provides a method for studying extreme events under relatively high mitigation scenarios.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Sjoukje Philip, Emma Aalbers, Robert Vautard, Friederike Otto, Karsten Haustein, Florence Habets, Roop Singh, and Heidi Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-308, 2016
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rain caused flooding in France and Germany at the end of May 2016. After such an event the question is always posed to what extent it can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Using observations and five model ensembles we give a first answer. For the 3-day precipitation extremes over the Seine and Loire basins that caused the flooding all methods agree that the probability has increased by a factor of about two. For 1-day precipitation extremes in Germany the methods disagree.
G. J. van Oldenborgh, F. E. L. Otto, K. Haustein, and H. Cullen
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-13197-2015, 2015
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
On 4–6 December 2015, the storm 'Desmond' caused very heavy rainfall in northern England and Scotland, which led to widespread flooding. We provide an initial assessment of the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the likelihood of precipitation events like this. We use three independent methods of extreme event attribution based on observations and two climate models. All methods agree that the effect of climate change is positive, making events like this about 40% (5–80%) more likely.
K. Haustein, R. Washington, J. King, G. Wiggs, D. S. G. Thomas, F. D. Eckardt, R. G. Bryant, and L. Menut
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 341–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-341-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-341-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, the performance of three commonly used dust emissions schemes is investigated using a box model environment and observational data obtained in Botswana (Sua Pan). The results suggest that all schemes fail to reproduce the observed horizontal dust flux properly. They overestimate its magnitude by several orders of magnitude. The key parameter for this mismatch is the surface crusting which limits the availability of erosive material, even at higher wind speeds.
M. K. Karremann, J. G. Pinto, P. J. von Bomhard, and M. Klawa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2041–2052, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2041-2014, 2014
M. Mielke, N. S. Zinoviev, K. Dethloff, A. Rinke, V. J. Kustov, A. P. Makshtas, V. T. Sokolov, R. Neuber, M. Maturilli, D. Klaus, D. Handorf, and J. Graeser
Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-11855-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/acpd-14-11855-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
M. L. R. Liberato, J. G. Pinto, R. M. Trigo, P. Ludwig, P. Ordóñez, D. Yuen, and I. F. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 2239–2251, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Demographic yearbooks as a source of weather-related fatalities: the Czech Republic, 1919–2022
FOREWARNS: development and multifaceted verification of enhanced regional-scale surface water flood forecasts
Assessment of wind–damage relations for Norway using 36 years of daily insurance data
Interannual variations in the seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany and the response to climate change
Climatology of large hail in Europe: characteristics of the European Severe Weather Database
Amplified potential for vegetation stress under climate-change-induced intensifying compound extreme events in the Greater Mediterranean Region
Assimilation of surface pressure observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
An open-source radar-based hail damage model for buildings and cars
Linkages between atmospheric rivers and humid heat across the United States
Evaluating pySTEPS optical flow algorithms for convection nowcasting over the Maritime Continent using satellite data
Climate change impacts on regional fire weather in heterogeneous landscapes of central Europe
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
High-resolution projections of ambient heat for major European cities using different heat metrics
Heat wave characteristics: evaluation of regional climate model performances for Germany
Rain-on-snow responses to warmer Pyrenees: a sensitivity analysis using a physically based snow hydrological model
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
Intense rains in Israel associated with the 'Train effect'
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Wind as a natural hazard in Poland
Exploring extreme event attribution by using long-running meteorological observations
Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: The roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning (CG) and differences between +CG and −CG strokes in China regarding the China National Lightning Detection Network
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Forecasting large hail and lightning using additive logistic regression models and the ECMWF reforecasts
The impact of global navigation satellite system (GNSS) zenith total delay data assimilation on the short-term precipitable water vapor and precipitation forecast over Italy using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Shallow and deep learning of extreme rainfall events from convective atmospheres
Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity and aridity: the case of Kenya
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Assessment of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) ensemble extreme precipitation forecast skill over Europe
A long record of European windstorm losses and its comparison to standard climate indices
Assimilation of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) pseudo-observations in AROME-France – proof of concept
A phytoplankton bloom caused by the super cyclonic storm Amphan in the central Bay of Bengal
Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1437–1457, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1437-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The official mortality data in the Czech Republic in 1919–2022 are used to show long-term fluctuations in the number of fatalities caused by excessive natural cold and heat, lightning, natural disasters, and falls on ice/snow, as well as the sex and age of the deceased, based on certain meteorological, historical, and socioeconomic factors that strongly influence changes in the number and structure of such fatalities. Knowledge obtained is usable in risk management for the preservation of lives.
Ben Maybee, Cathryn E. Birch, Steven J. Böing, Thomas Willis, Linda Speight, Aurore N. Porson, Charlie Pilling, Kay L. Shelton, and Mark A. Trigg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1415–1436, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1415-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the development and verification of FOREWARNS, a novel method for regional-scale forecasting of surface water flooding. We detail outcomes from a workshop held with UK forecast users, who indicated they valued the forecasts and would use them to complement national guidance. We use results of objective forecast tests against flood observations over northern England to show that this confidence is justified and that FOREWARNS meets the needs of UK flood responders.
Ashbin Jaison, Asgeir Sorteberg, Clio Michel, and Øyvind Breivik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1341–1355, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The present study uses daily insurance losses and wind speeds to fit storm damage functions at the municipality level of Norway. The results show that the damage functions accurately estimate losses associated with extreme damaging events and can reconstruct their spatial patterns. However, there is no single damage function that performs better than another. A newly devised damage–no-damage classifier shows some skill in predicting extreme damaging events.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Faye Hulton and David M. Schultz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1079–1098, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1079-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Large hail devastates crops and property and can injure and kill people and livestock. Hail reports are collected by individual countries, so understanding where and when large hail occurs across Europe is an incomplete undertaking. We use the European Severe Weather Database to evaluate the quality of reports by year and by country since 2000. Despite its short record, the dataset appears to represent aspects of European large-hail climatology reliably.
Patrick Olschewski, Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng, Hassane Moutahir, Brian Böker, Edwin Haas, Harald Kunstmann, and Patrick Laux
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1099–1134, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1099-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We applied a multivariate and dependency-preserving bias correction method to climate model output for the Greater Mediterranean Region and investigated potential changes in false-spring events (FSEs) and heat–drought compound events (HDCEs). Results project an increase in the frequency of FSEs in middle and late spring as well as increases in frequency, intensity, and duration for HDCEs. This will potentially aggravate the risk of crop loss and failure and negatively impact food security.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Timo Schmid, Raphael Portmann, Leonie Villiger, Katharina Schröer, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 847–872, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-847-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hailstorms cause severe damage to buildings and cars, which motivates a detailed risk assessment. Here, we present a new open-source hail damage model based on radar data in Switzerland. The model successfully estimates the correct order of magnitude of car and building damages for most large hail events over 20 years. However, large uncertainty remains in the geographical distribution of modelled damages, which can be improved for individual events by using crowdsourced hail reports.
Colin Raymond, Anamika Shreevastava, Emily Slinskey, and Duane Waliser
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 791–801, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-791-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
How can we systematically understand what causes high levels of atmospheric humidity and thus heat stress? Here we argue that atmospheric rivers can be a useful tool, based on our finding that in several US regions, atmospheric rivers and humid heat occur close together in space and time. Most typically, an atmospheric river transports moisture which heightens heat stress, with precipitation following a day later. These effects tend to be larger for stronger and more extensive systems.
Joseph Smith, Cathryn Birch, John Marsham, Simon Peatman, Massimo Bollasina, and George Pankiewicz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 567–582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-567-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Nowcasting uses observations to make predictions of the atmosphere on short timescales and is particularly applicable to the Maritime Continent, where storms rapidly develop and cause natural disasters. This paper evaluates probabilistic and deterministic satellite nowcasting algorithms over the Maritime Continent. We show that the probabilistic approach is most skilful at small scales (~ 60 km), whereas the deterministic approach is most skilful at larger scales (~ 200 km).
Julia Miller, Andrea Böhnisch, Ralf Ludwig, and Manuela I. Brunner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 411–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-411-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the impacts of climate change on fire danger for 1980–2099 in different landscapes of central Europe, using the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) as a fire danger indicator. We find that today's 100-year FWI event will occur every 30 years by 2050 and every 10 years by 2099. High fire danger (FWI > 21.3) becomes the mean condition by 2099 under an RCP8.5 scenario. This study highlights the potential for severe fire events in central Europe from a meteorological perspective.
Joy Ommer, Jess Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-296, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed that they were beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe weather forecast and warning need to advance to trigger our imagination of what might be about to happen and start preparing.
Clemens Schwingshackl, Anne Sophie Daloz, Carley Iles, Kristin Aunan, and Jana Sillmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 331–354, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Ambient heat in European cities will substantially increase under global warming, as projected by three heat metrics calculated from high-resolution climate model simulations. While the heat metrics consistently project high levels of ambient heat for several cities, in other cities the projected heat levels vary considerably across the three heat metrics. Using complementary heat metrics for projections of ambient heat is thus important for assessments of future risks from heat stress.
Dragan Petrovic, Benjamin Fersch, and Harald Kunstmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 265–289, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-265-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The influence of model resolution and settings on the reproduction of heat waves in Germany between 1980–2009 is analyzed. Outputs from a high-resolution model with settings tailored to the target region are compared to those from coarser-resolution models with more general settings. Neither the increased resolution nor the tailored model settings are found to add significant value to the heat wave simulation. The models exhibit a large spread, indicating that the choice of model can be crucial.
Josep Bonsoms, Juan I. López-Moreno, Esteban Alonso-González, César Deschamps-Berger, and Marc Oliva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 245–264, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-245-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate warming is changing mountain snowpack patterns, leading in some cases to rain-on-snow (ROS) events. Here we analyzed near-present ROS and its sensitivity to climate warming across the Pyrenees. ROS increases during the coldest months of the year but decreases in the warmest months and areas under severe warming due to snow cover depletion. Faster snow ablation is anticipated in the coldest and northern slopes of the range. Relevant implications in mountain ecosystem are anticipated.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3111, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called 'ensemble prediction'. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity, space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitations.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-215, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
'Train effect' is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall, sometimes floods, and reported in N. America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains were identified by radar images, associated with Cyprus Lows, sharing the following features: Found at the cold sector south of the low center, at the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km, last 1–3 hours and yield 35 mm rainfall, up to 60 mm.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-211, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-211, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the Vapor Pressure Deficit (VPD), and important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal show the potential for using smartphone data to both compliment the regular weather station network, while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Matthew D. K. Priestley, David B. Stephenson, Adam A. Scaife, Daniel Bannister, Christopher J. T. Allen, and David Wilkie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3845–3861, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3845-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This research presents a model for estimating extreme gusts associated with European windstorms. Using observed storm footprints we are able to calculate the return level of events at the 200-year return period. The largest gusts are found across NW Europe, and these are larger when the North Atlantic Oscillation is positive. Using theoretical future climate states we find that return levels are likely to increase across NW Europe to levels that are unprecedented compared to historical storms.
Tadeusz Chmielewski and Piotr A. Bońkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3839–3844, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3839-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper deals with wind speeds of extreme wind events in Poland and the descriptions of their effects. Two recent estimations developed by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management in Warsaw and by Halina Lorenc are presented and briefly described. The 37 annual maximum gusts of wind speeds measured between 1971 and 2007 are analysed. Based on the measured and estimated wind speeds, the authors suggest new estimations for extreme winds that may occur in Poland.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2879, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2879, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events to changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored how these relationships can be investigated using a more common method, and relying solely on long-running observational records of temperature and precipitation.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
Jingyu Wang, Jiwen Fan, and Zhe Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3823–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hail and tornadoes are devastating hazards responsible for significant property damage and economic losses in the United States. Quantifying the connection between hazard events and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is of great significance for improving predictability, as well as for better understanding the influence of the climate-scale perturbations. A 14-year statistical dataset of MCS-related hazard production is presented.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2598, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents a model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops (wheat, maize, barley, rapeseed) and grapevines after a hailstorm. Using radar, agricultural land use data, and damage reports, it finds that the model performs best in the main production areas and at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevines. It also highlights the trade-offs in selecting suitable hail size thresholds for modeling, which eventually depends on user needs and cost considerations.
Ruijiao Jiang, Guoping Zhang, Shudong Wang, Bing Xue, Zhengshuai Xie, Tingzhao Yu, Kuoyin Wang, Jin Ding, and Xiaoxiang Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3747–3759, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3747-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning activity in China is analyzed. Low latitudes, undulating terrain, seaside, and humid surfaces are beneficial for lightning occurrence. Summer of the year or afternoon of the day is the high period. Large cloud-to-ground lightning frequency always corresponds to a small ratio and weak intensity of positive cloud-to-ground lightning on either a temporal or spatial scale. Interestingly, the discharge intensity difference between the two types of lightning shrinks on the Tibetan Plateau.
George Pacey, Stephan Pfahl, Lisa Schielicke, and Kathrin Wapler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3703-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cold fronts are often associated with areas of intense precipitation (cells) and sometimes with hazards such as flooding, hail and lightning. We find that cold-frontal cell days are associated with higher cell frequency and cells are typically more intense. We also show both spatially and temporally where cells are most frequent depending on their cell-front distance. These results are an important step towards a deeper understanding of cold-frontal storm climatology and improved forecasting.
Francesco Battaglioli, Pieter Groenemeijer, Ivan Tsonevsky, and Tomàš Púčik
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3651–3669, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3651-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Probabilistic models for lightning and large hail were developed across Europe using lightning observations and hail reports. These models accurately predict the occurrence of lightning and large hail several days in advance. In addition, the hail model was shown to perform significantly better than the state-of-the-art forecasting methods. These results suggest that the models developed in this study may help improve forecasting of convective hazards and eventually limit the associated risks.
Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Alessandra Mascitelli, Eugenio Realini, Stefano Barindelli, Giulio Tagliaferro, Silvia Puca, Stefano Dietrich, and Stefano Federico
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3319–3336, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3319-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work shows how local observations can improve precipitation forecasting for severe weather events. The improvement lasts for at least 6 h of forecast.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2057, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2057, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by very extreme precipitation. Flood protection rely on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties of the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Gerd Bürger and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3065–3077, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3065-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Our subject is a new catalogue of radar-based heavy rainfall events (CatRaRE) over Germany and how it relates to the concurrent atmospheric circulation. We classify reanalyzed daily atmospheric fields of convective indices according to CatRaRE, using conventional statistical and more recent machine learning algorithms, and apply them to present and future atmospheres. Increasing trends are projected for CatRaRE-type probabilities, from reanalyzed as well as from simulated atmospheric fields.
Marleen R. Lam, Alessia Matanó, Anne F. Van Loon, Rhoda A. Odongo, Aklilu D. Teklesadik, Charles N. Wamucii, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Shamton Waruru, and Adriaan J. Teuling
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2915–2936, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2915-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
There is still no full understanding of the relation between drought impacts and drought indices in the Horn of Africa where water scarcity and arid regions are also present. This study assesses their relation in Kenya. A random forest model reveals that each region, aggregated by aridity, has its own set of predictors for every impact category. Water scarcity was not found to be related to aridity. Understanding these relations contributes to the development of drought early warning systems.
Marie Hundhausen, Hendrik Feldmann, Natalie Laube, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2873–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau, and Alexandre Tuel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2857-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation can lead to floods and landslides, resulting in widespread damage and significant casualties. Some of its impacts can be mitigated if reliable forecasts and warnings are available. In this article, we assess the capacity of the precipitation forecast provided by ECMWF to predict heavy precipitation events on a subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescale over Europe. We find that the forecast skill of such events is generally higher in winter than in summer.
Stephen Cusack
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2841–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2841-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The link from European windstorm research findings to insurance applications is strengthened by a new storm loss history spanning 1950 to 2022. It is based on ERA5 winds, together with long-term trends from observed gusts for improved validation. Correlations between losses and climate indices are around 0.4 for interannual variations, rising to 0.7 for decadal variations. A significant divergence between standard climate indices and storm losses over the past 20 years needs further research.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Haojie Huang, Linfei Bai, Hao Shen, Xiaoqi Ding, Rui Wang, and Haibin Lü
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2807–2819, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2807-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The super cyclonic storm Amphan occurred in the central Bay of Bengal in May 2020, and a phytoplankton bloom occurred. Its dynamic mechanism was first researched. An inertial oscillation with a 2 d period appeared and lasted for approximately 2 weeks. With the weakened thermocline and thinner barrier layer thickness, nitrate and Chl a were uplifted to the upper ocean by upwelling. With the high photosynthetically available radiation, a phytoplankton bloom occurred.
Klaus Haslinger, Wolfgang Schöner, Jakob Abermann, Gregor Laaha, Konrad Andre, Marc Olefs, and Roland Koch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2749–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2749-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. Alterations of the climatic water balance and its components are analysed along different levels of elevation. Results indicate in general wetter conditions with particular shifts in timing of the snow melt season. On the contrary, an increasing risk for summer droughts is apparent due to increasing year-to-year variability and decreasing snow melt under future climate conditions.
Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2737–2748, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Cited articles
Adam, E. F., Brown, S., Nicholls, R. J., and Tsimplis, M.: A systematic
assessment of maritime disruptions affecting UK ports, coastal areas and
surrounding seas from 1950 to 2014, Nat. Hazards, 83, 691–713,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-016-2347-4, 2016.
Akbar, M. K., Kanjanda, S., and Musinguzi, A.: Effect of Bottom Friction,
Wind Drag Coefficient, and Meteorological Forcing in Hindcast of Hurricane
Rita Storm Surge Using SWAN + ADCIRC Model, J. Marine Sci. Eng., 5, 38,
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030038, 2017.
Albrecht, A., Hanewinkel, M., Bauhus, J., and Kohnle, U.: How does
silviculture affect storm damage in forests of south-western Germany?
Results from empirical modeling based on long-term observations, Eur. J.
Forest Res., 131, 229–247, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-010-0432-x, 2012.
Albrecht, A., Kohnle, U., Hanewinkel, M., and Bauhus, J.: Storm damage of
Douglas-fir unexpectedly high compared to Norway spruce, Ann. Forest Sci.,
70, 195–207, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-012-0244-x, 2013.
Albrecht, A. T., Fortin, M., Kohnle, U., and Ningre, F.: Coupling a tree
growth model with storm damage modeling – conceptual approach and results of
scenario simulations, Environ. Modell. Softw., 69, 63–76, 2015.
Albrecht, A. T., Jung, C., and Schindler, D.: Improving empirical storm
damage models by coupling with high-resolution gust speed data, Agr.
Forest Meteorol., 268, 23–31, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.12.017, 2019.
Allianz: Safety and shipping review 2019 – An annual review of trends and
developments in shipping losses and safety, Allianz Global Corporate &
Specialty, Munich, Germany,
https://www.agcs.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/agcs/agcs/reports/AGCS-Safety-Shipping-Review-2019.pdf
(last access: 14 December 2021), 2019.
Ashcroft, J.: The relationship between the gust ratio, terrain roughness,
gust duration and the hourly mean wind speed, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 53, 331–355, https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(94)90090-6, 1994.
Ashley, W. S. and Mote, T. L.: Derecho hazards in the United States, B.
Am. Meteorol. Soc., 86, 1577–1592, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-86-11-1577, 2005.
Baker, C. J.: A simplified analysis of various types of wind-induced road
vehicle accidents, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 22, 69–85,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-6105(86)90012-7, 1986.
Baker, C. J. and Reynolds, S.: Wind-induced accidents of road vehicles,
Accident Anal. Prev., 24, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-4575(92)90009-8, 1992.
Baker, C. J., Sterling, M., and Berry, P.: A generalised model of crop lodging, J. Theor. Biol., 363, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.07.032, 2014.
Bärring, L., Jönsson, P., Mattsson, J. O., and Åhman, R.:
Wind erosion on arable land in Scania, Sweden and the relation to the wind
climate – a review, Catena, 52, 173–190, 2003.
Barros, A. M. G., Pereira, J. M. C., and Lund, U. J.: Identifying
geographical patterns of wildfire orientation: A watershed-based analysis,
Forest Ecol. Manag., 264, 98–107, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2011.09.027, 2012.
Baumgartner, A., Klemmer, L., Raschke, E., and Waldmann, G.: Waldbrände
in Bayern 1950 bis 1959, Mitteilungen aus der Staatsforstverwaltung Bayerns, 36, 57-79, 1967.
BDB: WEA-Standortdaten, Betreiber-Datenbasis (BDB), http://www.btrdb.de/sto.html, last access: 21 December 2021.
Beck, V. and Dotzek, N.: Reconstruction of Near-Surface Tornado Wind Fields
from Forest Damage, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 49, 1517–1537,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAMC2254.1, 2010.
Becker, N., Rust, H. W., and Ulbrich, U.: Weather impacts on various types of
road crashes: a quantitative analysis using generalized additive models, Eur. Transp. Res. Rev., 14, 37, https://doi.org/10.1186/s12544-022-00561-2, 2022.
Belcher, S. E., Harman, I. N., and Finnigan, J. J.: The Wind in the Willows:
Flows in Forest Canopies in Complex Terrain, Annu. Rev. Fluid. Mech., 44,
479–504, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-fluid-120710-101036, 2012.
Berry, P., Kendall, S., Rutterford, Z., Orford, S., and Griffiths, S.: Historical analysis of the effects of breeding on the height of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) and consequences for lodging, Euphytica, 203, 375–383, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10681-014-1286-y, 2014.
Berry, P., Blackburn, A., Sterling, M., Miao, Y., Hatley, D., Gullick, D., Joseph, G., Whyatt, D., Soper, D., Murray, J., and Baker, C.: A multi-disciplinary approach for the precision management of lodging risk, in: Precision agriculture '19 – Papers presented at the 12th European Conference on Precision Agriculture, Montpellier, France, 8–11 July 2019, edited by: Stafford, J. V., Wageningen Academic Publishers, Wageningen, 969–975, https://doi.org/10.3920/978-90-8686-888-9, 2019.
Berry, P. M. and Spink, J.: Predicting yield losses caused by lodging in wheat, Field Crop. Res., 137, 19–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2012.07.019, 2012.
Berry, P. M., Baker, C. J., Hatley, D., Dong, R., Wang, X., Blackburn, G. A., Miao, Y., Sterling, M., and Whyatt, J. D.: Development and application of a model for calculating the risk of
stem and root lodging in maize, Field Crop. Res., 262, 108037, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2020.108037, 2021.
Bittelli, M., Ventura, F., Campbell, G., Snyder, R., Gallegati, F., and
Pisa, P.: Coupling of heat, water vapor, and liquid water fluxes to compute
evaporation in bare soils, J. Hydrol., 362, 191–205,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.08.014, 2008.
Bjerknes, J.: Life cycle of cyclones and the polar front theory of
atmospheric circulation. Geophys. Publik., 3, 1–18, 1922.
Blender, R., Fraedrich, K., and Lunkeit, F.: Identification of cyclone-track
regimes in the North Atlantic, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 123, 727–741, 1997.
Blender, R., Raible, C., and Lunkeit, F.: Non-exponential return time
distributions for vorticity extremes explained by fractional Poisson
processes, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 249–257, 2015.
Blennow, K. and Olofsson, E.: The probability of wind damage in forestry
under a changed wind climate, Climatic Change, 87, 347–360,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-007-9290-z, 2008.
Bluestein, M. and Zecher, J.: A New Approach to an Accurate Wind Chill Factor, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 80, 1893–1900,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<1893:ANATAA>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Bollmeyer, C., Keller, J. D., Ohlwein, C., Wahl, S., Crewell, S., Friederichs, P., Hense, A., Keune, J., Kneifel, S., Pscheidt, I., Redl,
S., and Steinke, S.: Towards a high-resolution regional reanalysis for the
European CORDEX domain, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 1–15,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2486, 2015.
Bonnesoeur, V., Constant, T., Moulia, B., and Fournier, M.: Forest trees
filter chronic wind-signals to acclimate to high winds, New Phytol., 210, 850–860, https://doi.org/10.1111/nph.13836, 2016.
Born, K., Ludwig, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Wind gust estimation for Mid-European
winter storms: Towards a probabilistic view, Tellus A, 64, 17471,
https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.17471, 2012.
Borrelli, P., Lugato, E., Montanarella, L., and Panagos, P.: A New Assessment of Soil Loss Due to Wind Erosion in European Agricultural Soils Using a
Quantitative Spatially Distributed Modelling Approach, Land Degrad. Dev., 28, 335–344, https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2588, 2017.
Brandle, J. R., Hodges, L., and Zhou, X. H.: Windbreaks in North American agricultural systems, in: New Vistas in Agroforestry: A Compendium for 1st World Congress of Agroforestry, Springer Netherlands, 65–78, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2424-1_5, 2004.
Brasseur, O.: Development and application of a physical approach to
estimating wind gusts, Mon. Weather Rev., 129, 5–25, 2001.
Bunkers, M. and Hjelmfelt, M.: Chapter Three – Thunderstorm downbursts:
Windstorms and blowdowns, in: Plant Disturbance Ecology, 2nd edn., edited by: Johnson, E. and Miyanishi, K., Academic Press, San Diego, 65–115, https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818813-2.00003-4, 2021.
Byram, G.: Combustion of forest fuels, in Forest fire: control and use,
edited by: Davis, K. P., McGraw-Hill, New York, 61–89, 1959a.
Byram, G.: Forest fire behaviour, in: Forest Fire: Control and Use, edited by: Davis, K., McGraw-Hill, New York, 584 pp., 1959b.
Carta, J. and Mentado, D.: A continuous bivariate model for wind power
density and wind turbine energy output estimations, Energ. Convers. Manage., 48, 420–432, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.ENCONMAN.2006.06.019, 2007.
Cassou, C., Terray, L., and Phillips, A.: Tropical Atlantic influence on
European heat waves, J. Climate, 18, 2805–2811, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3506.1, 2005.
Catto, J., Ackerley, D., Booth, J. Champion, A. J., Colle, B. A., Pfahl, S., Pinto, J. G., Quinting, J. F., and Seiler, C.: The Future of Midlatitude Cyclones, Current Climate Change Reports, 5, 407–420, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-019-00149-4, 2019.
Celik, A.: Assessing the suitability of wind speed probability distribution
functions based on wind power density, Renew. Energ., 28, 1563–1574, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0960-1481(03)00018-1, 2003.
Charuvisit, S., Kimura, K., and Fujino, Y.: Effects of wind barrier on a
vehicle passing in the wake of a bridge tower in cross wind and its
response, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 92, 609–639, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2004.03.006, 2004.
Chauhan, A. and Saini, R.: Statistical analysis of wind speed data using
Weibull distribution parameters, in: 2014 1st International Conference on
Non-Conventional Energy (ICONCE 2014), Kalyani, India, 16–17 January 2014, IEEE, 160–163, https://doi.org/10.1109/ICONCE.2014.6808712, 2014.
Chang, E., Lee, S., and Swanson, K.: Storm track dynamics, J. Climate, 15,
2163–2183, 2002.
Chen, X., Jeong, S., Park, H., Kim, J., and Park, C.-R.: Urbanization has
stronger impacts than regional climate change on wind stilling: a lesson
from South Korea, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 054016,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab7e51, 2020.
Chen, Y.-Y., Gardiner, B., Pasztor, F., Blennow, K., Ryder, J., Valade, A., Naudts, K., Otto, J., McGrath, M. J., Planque, C., and Luyssaert, S.: Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262), Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 771–791, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-771-2018, 2018.
Christakos, K., Cheliotis, I., Varlas, G., and Steeneveld, G.-J.: Offshore
Wind Energy Analysis of Cyclone Xaver over North Europe, Energy Proced., 94, 37–44, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egypro.2016.09.187, 2016.
Cionco, R.: A wind-profile index for canopy flow, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 3,
255–263, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02033923, 1972.
Clark, P. and Gray, S.: Sting jets in extratropical cyclones: A review, Q.
J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 943–969, 2018.
Crasemann, B., Handorf, D., Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., Nakamura, T., Ukita,
J., and Yamazaki, K.: Can preferred atmospheric circulation patterns over
the North-Atlantic-Eurasian region be associated with Arctic sea ice loss?,
Polar Sci., 14, 9–20, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polar.2017.09.002, 2017.
Csilléry, K., Kunstler, G., Courbaud, B., Allard, D., Lassegues, P.,
Haslinger, K., Gardiner, B., Lassègues, P., Haslinger, K., and Gardiner,
B.: Coupled effects of wind-storms and drought on tree mortality across 115
forest stands from the Western Alps and the Jura mountains, Glob. Change
Biol., 23, 5092–5107, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13773, 2017.
Couasnon, A., Eilander, D., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Haigh, I. D., Wahl, T., Winsemius, H. C., and Ward, P. J.: Measuring compound flood potential from river discharge and storm surge extremes at the global scale, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 489–504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-489-2020, 2020.
Dacre, H.: A review of extratropical cyclones: observations and conceptual
models over the past 100 years, Weather, 75, 4–7, 2020.
Dacre, H. and Gray, S.: The spatial distribution and evolution
characteristics of North Atlantic cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 137, 99–115,
2009.
Dacre, H. and Pinto, J. G.: Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones: a
review of where, when and why it occurs, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 48, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-00152-9, 2020.
Danielsson, U.: Windchill and the risk of tissue freezing, J. Appl. Physiol., 81, 2666–2673, https://doi.org/10.1152/jappl.1996.81.6.2666, 1996.
Dèfossez, P., Veylon, G., Yang, M., Bonnefond, J., Garrigou, D., Trichet, P., and Danjon, F.: Impact of soil water content on the overturning resistance of young Pinus Pinaster in sandy soil, Forest Ecol. Manag., 480, 118614, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118614, 2021.
Dèfossez, P., Rajaonalison, F., and Bosc, A.: How wind acclimation impacts Pinus pinaster growth in comparison to resource availability, Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 95, 118–129, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpab028, 2022.
Díaz-Yáñez, O., Mola-Yudego, B., and González-Olabarria, J.: Modelling damage occurrence by snow and wind in forest ecosystems, Ecol. Model., 408, 108741, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.108741, 2019.
Diffenbaugh, N., Scherer, M., and Trapp, R.: Robust increases in severe
thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing, P. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA, 110, 16361–16366, 2013.
Ding, M., Wu, Y.-C., and Zhang, L.-J.: Study on the algorithm to the
probabilistic distribution parameters of wind speed in wind farms. Proc.
Chinese Soc. Elec. Eng., 25, 107–110, 2005.
Donat, M. G., Pardowitz, T., Leckebusch, G. C., Ulbrich, U., and Burghoff, O.: High-resolution refinement of a storm loss model and estimation of return periods of loss-intensive storms over Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2821–2833, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2821-2011, 2011.
Dorland, C., Tol, R., and Palutikof, J.: Vulnerability of the Netherlands
and Northwest Europe to storm damage under climate change, Climatic Change, 43, 513–535, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005492126814, 1999.
Dorrington, J. and Strommen, K.: Jet speed variability obscures
Euro-Atlantic regime structure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2020GL087907,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087907, 2020.
Droste, A., Steeneveld, G., and Holtslag, A.: Introducing the urban wind
island effect, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 094007,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aad8ef, 2018.
Duperat, M., Gardiner, B., and Ruel, J.-C.: Testing an individual tree wind
damage risk model in a naturally regenerated balsam fir stand: potential
impact of thinning on the level of risk, Forestry: An International Journal
of Forest Research, 94, 141–150, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpaa023, 2021.
Dupont, S.: A simple wind–tree interaction model predicting the probability
of wind damage at stand level, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 224, 49–63, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2016.04.014, 2016.
Dupont, S., Ikonen, V.-P., Väisänen,, H., and Peltola, H.: Predicting tree damage in fragmented landscapes using a wind risk model coupled with an airflow model, Can. J. Forest Res., 45, 1065–1076, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2015-0066, 2015.
DWD: Warnkriterien, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD),
https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/warnungen_aktuell/kriterien/warnkriterien.html, last access: 15 December 2021.
Economou, T., Stephenson, D., Pinto, J. G., Shaffrey, L., and Zappa, G.:
Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones in a multi-model ensemble of
historical and future simulations, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 3076–3087, 2015.
Edwards, J.: The relationship between road accident severity and recorded
weather, J. Safety Res., 29, 249–262, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-4375(98)00051-6, 1998.
Ellis, J., Harris, M., Román-Rivera, M., Ferguson, J., Tereszkiewicz,
P., and McGill, S.: Application of the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
to Assess Sand Dune Response to Tropical Storms, Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 8, 670, https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse8090670, 2020.
Everham, E. and Brokaw, N.: Forest damage and recovery from catastrophic
wind, Bot. Rev., 62, 113–185, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02857920, 1996.
Favorskaya, M. N. and Jain, L. C.: Innovations in Remote Sensing of Forests, in: Handbook on Advances in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems, Intelligent Systems Reference Library, vol. 122, Springer, Cham,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-52308-8_1, 2017.
Feldstein, S. and Franzke, C.: Atmospheric teleconnection patterns, in:
Nonlinear and stochastic climate dynamics, Cambridge University Press, 54–104, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781316339251, ISBN: 9781316339251, 2017.
Feser, F., Barcikowska, M., Krueger, O., Schenk, F., Weisse, R., and Xia, L:
Storminess over the North Atlantic and Northwestern Europe – a review, Q. J.
Roy. Meteor. Soc., 141, 350–382, 2015.
Feuerstein, B., Groenemeijer, P., Dirksen, E., Hubrig, M., Holzer, A., and
Dotzek, N.: Towards an improved wind speed scale and damage description
adapted for Central Europe, Atmos. Res., 100, 547–564,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.12.026, 2011.
Fink, A. H., Brücher, T., Ermert, V., Krüger, A., and Pinto, J. G.: The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 9, 405–423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-9-405-2009, 2009.
Finnigan, J., Ayotte, K., Harman, I., Katul, G., Oldroyd, H., Patton, E.,
Poggi, D., Ross, A., and Taylor, P.: Boundary-Layer Flow Over Complex
Topography, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 177, 247–313, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-020-00564-3, 2020.
Flather, R.: Storm surges, in: Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences, edited by:
Steele, J., Thorpe, S., and Turekian, K., Academic, San Diego, California,
2882–2892, ISBN 978-0-12-813082-7, 2001.
Florinsky, I.: An illustrated introduction to general geomorphometry, Prog.
Phys. Geog., 41, 723–752, 2017.
Forzieri, G., Pecchi, M., Girardello, M., Mauri, A., Klaus, M., Nikolov, C., Rüetschi, M., Gardiner, B., Tomaštík, J., Small, D., Nistor, C., Jonikavicius, D., Spinoni, J., Feyen, L., Giannetti, F., Comino, R., Wolynski, A., Pirotti, F., Maistrelli, F., Savulescu, I., Wurpillot-Lucas, S., Karlsson, S., Zieba-Kulawik, K., Strejczek-Jazwinska, P., Mokroš, M., Franz, S., Krejci, L., Haidu, I., Nilsson, M., Wezyk, P., Catani, F., Chen, Y.-Y., Luyssaert, S., Chirici, G., Cescatti, A., and Beck, P. S. A.: A spatially explicit database of wind disturbances in European forests over the period 2000–2018, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 257–276, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-257-2020, 2020.
Franzke, C.: Persistent regimes and extreme events of the North Atlantic
atmospheric circulation, Philos. T. Roy. Soc. A, 371, 20110471, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2011.0471, 2013.
Franzke, C.: Impacts of a Changing Climate on Economic Damages and
Insurance, Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 1, 95–110,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-017-0004-3, 2017.
Franzke, C.: Towards the development of economic damage functions for
weather and climate extremes, Ecol. Econ., 189, 107172, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107172, 2021.
Franzke, C., Woollings, T., and Martius, O.: Persistent circulation regimes
and preferred regime transitions in the North Atlantic, J. Atmos. Sci., 68,
2809–2825, 2011.
Frey, O. and DeVogelaere, A.: The Containerized Shipping Industry and the
Phenomenon of Containers Lost at Sea, Marine Sanctuaries Conservation
Series, ONMS-14, 1–51, https://sanctuaries.noaa.gov/science/conservation/lostcontainers.html (last
access: 14 December 2021), 2014.
Fujita, T.: Tornadoes and Downbursts in the Context of Generalized Planetary
Scales, J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1511–1534,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1981)038<1511:TADITC>2.0.CO;2, 1981.
Ganbat, G., Seo, J., Han, J., and Baik, J.-J.: A theoretical study of the interactions of urban breeze circulation with mountain slope winds, Theor. Appl. Clim., 121, 545–555, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1252-6, 2015.
Garcia-Alonso, L., Moura, T. G. Z., and Roibas, D.: The effect of weather
conditions on port technical efficiency, Mar. Policy, 113, 103816,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2020.103816, 2020.
Gardiner, B.: Mathematical modelling of the static and dynamic
characteristics of plantation trees, in: Mathematical Modelling of Forest Ecosystems, edited by: Franke, J. and Roeder, A., Sauerländers Verlag,
40–61, ISBN 3793908003, 1992.
Gardiner, B.: The interactions of wind and tree movement in forest canopies,
in: Wind and Trees, edited by: Coutts, M. and Grace, J., Cambridge
University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511600425, ISBN 9780511600425, 1995.
Gardiner, B.: Wind damage to forests and trees: a review with an emphasis on
planted and managed forests, J. Forest Res., 26, 248–266, https://doi.org/10.1080/13416979.2021.1940665, 2021.
Gardiner, B. A., Stacey, G. R., Belcher, R. E., and Wood, C. J.: Field and wind tunnel assessments of the implications of respacing on tree stability, Forestry, 70, 233–252, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/70.3.233, 1997.
Gardiner, B., Peltola, H., and Kellomäki, S.: Comparison of two models
for predicting the critical wind speed required to damage coniferous trees,
Ecol. Model., 129, 1–23, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3800(00)00220-9, 2000.
Gardiner, B., Byrne, K., Hale, S., Kamimura, K., Mitchell, S., Peltola, H.,
and Ruel, J.-C.: A review of mechanistic modelling of wind damage risk to
forests, Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 81, 447–463, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpn022, 2008.
Gardiner, B., Blennow, K., Carnus, J. M., Fleischer, P., Ingemarson, F.,
Landmann, G., Lindner, M., Marzano, M., Nicoll, B., Orazio, C., Peyron, J.,
Reviron, M., Schelhaas, M., Schuck, A., Spielmann, M., and Usbeck, T.:
Destructive storms in European forests: past and forthcoming impacts, Final
report to European Commission-DG Environment, European Forest Institute,
https://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/wurpubs/fulltext/162053 (last access: May 2023), 2010.
Gardiner, B., Schuck, A., Schelhaas, M.-J., Orazio, C., Blennow, K., and
Nicoll, B.: Living with Storm Damage to Forests: What Science Can Tell Us,
edited by: Gardiner, B., Schuck, A., Schelhaas, M.-J., Orazio, C., Blennow, K., and Nicoll, B., European Forest Institute, Joensuu, ISBN: 978-952-5980-08-0, 2013.
Gardiner, B., Berry, P., and Moulia, B.: Review: Wind impacts on plant
growth, mechanics and damage, Plant Sci., 245, 94–118, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plantsci.2016.01.006, 2016.
Garratt, J.: Surface influence upon vertical profiles in the atmospheric
near-surface layer, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 106, 803–819, https://doi.org/10.1256/smsqj.45010, 1980.
Gatzen, C. P., Fink, A. H., Schultz, D. M., and Pinto, J. G.: An 18-year climatology of derechos in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1335–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1335-2020, 2020.
Gebhardt, O., Kuhlicke, C., Wolf, L., Vitolo, C., Duo, E., van Lanen, H., Rohrer, M., Sutanto, S., and Stoffel, M.: Results of the co-evaluation of the ANYWHERE tools, products and services at the pilot sites (Deliverable 1.4), UFZ, Leipzig, Germany, http://anywhere-h2020.eu/docs/ (last access: 30 May 2023), 2019.
German Meteorological Service (DWD): COSMO-REA6 data set, DWD [data set], https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/REA/COSMO_REA6/, last access: 31 May 2023a.
German Meteorological Service (DWD): DWD station network, https://opendata.dwd.de/, last access: 31 May 2023b.
Gholizadeh, H., Zoghipour, M., Torshizi, M.; Nazari, M., and Moradkhani, N.:
Gone with the wind: Impact of soil-dust storms on farm income, Ecol. Econ.,
188, 107133, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107133, 2021.
Goff, T., Nelson, M., Liknes, G., Feeley, T., Pugh, S., and Morin, R.: Rapid
assessment of tree damage resulting from a 2020 windstorm in Iowa, USA,
Forests, 12, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.3390/f12050555, 2021.
Gonçalves, A., Liberato, M., and Nieto, R.: Wind Energy Assessment
during High-Impact Winter Storms in the Iberian Peninsula, Environ. Sci. Proc., 4, 28, https://doi.org/10.3390/ecas2020-08132, 2020.
Gonçalves, A., Liberato, M., and Nieto, R.: Wind Energy Assessment during High-Impact Winter Storms in Southwestern Europe, Atmosphere, 12, 509, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12040509, 2021.
Grams, C. M., Binder, H., Pfahl, S., Piaget, N., and Wernli, H.: Atmospheric processes triggering the central European floods in June 2013, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 1691–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1691-2014, 2014.
Grimmond, C. and Oke, T.: Aerodynamic Properties of Urban Areas Derived from
Analysis of Surface Form, J. App. Meteorol. Clim., 38, 1262–1292,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1999)038<1262:APOUAD>2.0.CO;2, 1999.
Gromke, C. and Ruck, B.: On Wind Forces in the Forest-Edge Region During
Extreme-Gust Passages and Their Implications for Damage Patterns,
Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 168, 269–288, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-018-0348-4, 2018.
Gross, G.: A windthrow model for urban trees with application to storm
“Xavier”, Meteorol. Z., 27, 299–308, https://doi.org/10.15488/4901, 2018.
Gyakum, J. and Danielson, R.: Analysis of meteorological precursors to
ordinary and explosive cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific, Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 851–863, 2000.
Hahn, B. and Rohrig, K.: ISET-Wind-Index Assessment of the Annual Available
Wind Energy, Proc. Europ. Wind Energy Conf. Exh. EWEC2003, Madrid, Spain,
16–19 June 2003,
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.196.1675&rep=rep1&type=pdf (last access: 21 December 2021), 2003.
Hale, S., Gardiner, B., Peace, A., Nicoll, B., Taylor, P., and Pizzirani,
S.: Comparison and validation of three versions of a forest wind risk model,
Environ. Modell. Softw., 68, 27–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.01.016, 2015.
Hanewinkel, M., Kuhn, T., Bugmann, H., Lanz, A., and Brang, P.:
Vulnerability of uneven-aged forests to storm damage, Forestry, 87,
525–534, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpu008, 2014.
Hannachi, A., Straus, D., Franzke, C., Corti, S., and Woollings, T.:
Low-frequency nonlinearity and regime behavior in the Northern Hemisphere
extratropical atmosphere, Rev. Geophys., 55, 199–234,
https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3087.1, 2017.
Harper, B., Kepert, J., and Ginger, J.: Wind speed time averaging conversions
for tropical cyclone conditions, in: AMS 28th Conference on Hurricanes and
Tropical Meteorology, Orlando, FL, 28 April–2 May 2008, 1–2, 2008.
Harvey, B., Cook, P., Shaffrey, L., and Schiemann, R.: The response of the
northern hemisphere storm tracks and jet streams to climate change in the
CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 climate models. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125,
e2020JD032701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032701, 2020.
Haylock, M. R.: European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2847–2857, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2847-2011, 2011.
Held, I.: 100 years of progress in understanding the general circulation of
the atmosphere, Meteor. Mon., 59, 6.1–6.23, 2019.
Held, I. M.: Momentum transport by quasi-geostrophic eddies, J. Atmos. Sci.,
32, 1494–1497, 1975.
Held, I. M. and Hou, A. Y.: Nonlinear axially symmetric circulations in a
nearly inviscid atmosphere, J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 515–533, 1980.
Hemingway, R. and Robbins, J.: Developing a hazard-impact model to support
impact-based forecasts and warnings: The Vehicle OverTurning (VOT) Model,
Meteorol. Appl., 27, e1819, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1819, 2020.
Heneka, P., Hofherr, T., Ruck, B., and Kottmeier, C.: Winter storm risk of residential structures – model development and application to the German state of Baden-Württemberg, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 6, 721–733, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-6-721-2006, 2006.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on pressure levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.bd0915c6, 2018.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D.,
Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P.,
Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I.,
Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020.
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.-N.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1940 to present, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS) [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2023.
Hewson, T. and Neu, U.: Cyclones, windstorms and the IMILAST project, Tellus A, 67, 27128, https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v67.27128, 2015.
Hoeppe, P.: Trends in weather related disasters–Consequences for insurers
and society, Weather and Climate Extremes, 11, 70–79, 2016.
Hofman, M. and Bačkalov, I.: Risk-based analysis of inland vessel
stability, in: Proceedings of the 11th International Ship Stability Workshop,
Wageningen, 21–23 June 2010, 67–72, http://www.shipstab.org/files/Proceedings/ISSW/ISSW_2010_Wageningen_The_Netherlands/ISSW_2010_s03-p2.pdf (last access: 14 December 2021), 2010.
Holland, A., Riordan, A., and Franklin, E.: A Simple Model for Simulating
Tornado Damage in Forests, J. App. Meteorol. Clim., 45, 1597–1611,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JAM2413.1, 2006.
Holton, J. and Hakim, G.: An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology, Wiley, ISBN: 9780123848666, 2012.
Hoskins, B. and Valdes, P.: On the existence of storm tracks, J. Atmos. Sci.,
47, 1854–1864, 1990.
INTERCARGO: Bulk Carrier Casualty Report – Years 2008 to 2017 and the
trends, International Organization of Dry Cargo Shipowners, London, United
Kingdom,
https://www.intercargo.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/bulk-carrier-casualty-report-2017.pdf (last access: 14 December 2021), 2018.
IPCC: Summary for Policymakers, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical
Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment
Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by:
Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#SPM (last access: 1 May 2023), 2021.
Jenamani, R. and Kumar, A.: Bad weather and aircraft accidents–global
vis-à-vis Indian scenario, Curr. Sci. India, 104, 316–325, https://www.jstor.org/stable/24089632 (last access: 14 December 2021), 2013.
Jim, C. and Liu, H.: Storm damage on urban trees in Guangzhou, China,
Landscape Urban Plan., 38, 45–59, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2046(97)00018-2, 1997.
Joseph, G., Mohammadi, M., Sterling, M., Baker, C., Gillmeier, S., Soper, D.,
Jesson, M., Blackburn, G. A., Whyatt, J. D., Gullick, D., Murray, J., Berry, P., Hartley, D., and Finnan, J.: Determination of crop dynamic and aerodynamic parameters for lodging prediction, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 202, 104169, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104169, 2020.
Jung, C. and Schindler, D.: Statistical Modeling of Near-surface Wind Speed: A Case Study from Baden-Wuerttemberg (Southwest Germany), Austin J. Earth Sci., 2, 1006, ISSN: 2380-0771, 2015.
Jung, C. and Schindler, D.: Introducing a new approach for wind energy
potential assessment under climate change at the wind turbine scale, Energ.
Convers. Manage., 225, 113425, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2020.113425, 2020.
Jung, C. and Schindler, D.: Does the winter storm-related wind gust
intensity in Germany increase under warming climate? – A high-resolution
assessment, Weather and Climate Extremes, 33, 100360. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100360, 2021.
Jung, C., Schindler, D., Albrecht, A., and Buchholz, A.: The role of
highly-resolved gust speed in simulations of storm damage in forests at the
landscape scale: A case study from southwest Germany, Atmosphere, 7, 7, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos7010007, 2016.
Kadow, C., Illing, S., Lucio-Eceiza, E. E., Bergemann, M., Ramadoss, M., Sommer, P. S., Kunst, O., Schartner, T., Pankatz, K., Grieger, J., Schuster, M., Richling, A., Thiemann, H., Kirchner, I., Rust, H. W., Ludwig, T., Cubasch, U., and Ulbrich, U.: Introduction to Freva – A Free Evaluation System Framework for Earth System Modeling, Journal of Open Research Software, 9, p. 13, https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.253, 2021.
Kaimal, J. and Finnigan, J.: Atmospheric boundary layer flows: Their
structure and measurement, Oxford University Press, ISBN: 9780197560167, 1994.
Kaltenberger, R., Schaffhauser, A., and Staudinger, M.: “What the weather will do” – results of a survey on impact-oriented and impact-based warnings in European NMHSs, Adv. Sci. Res., 17, 29–38, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-17-29-2020, 2020.
Kamimura, K., Nanko, K., Matsumoto, A., Ueno, S., and Gardiner, B.: Tree
dynamic response and survival in a category-5 tropical cyclone: The case of
super typhoon Trami, Science Advances, 8, 1–11, 2022.
Kaspar, F., Müller-Westermeier, G., Penda, E., Mächel, H., Zimmermann, K., Kaiser-Weiss, A., and Deutschländer, T.: Monitoring of climate change in Germany – data, products and services of Germany's National Climate Data Centre, Adv. Sci. Res., 10, 99–106, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-10-99-2013, 2013.
Katinas, V., Gecevicius, G., and Marciukaitis, M.: An investigation of wind
power density distribution at location with low and high wind speed using
statistical model, Appl. Energ., 218, 442–451, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.02.163, 2018.
Kelman, I.: Defining Risk, FloodRiskNet Newsletter, Issue 2, 3 pp., http://www.ilankelman.org/abstracts/kelman2003frn.pdf (last access: 1 May 2023), 2003.
Kirk, P.: An updated tornado climatology for the UK: 1981–2010, Weather,
69, 171–175, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2247, 2014.
Kite-Powell, H.: The value of ocean surface wind information for maritime
commerce, Mar. Technol. Soc. J., 45, 75–84, https://doi.org/10.4031/MTSJ.45.1.13, 2011.
Klawa, M. and Ulbrich, U.: A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 725–732, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-725-2003, 2003.
Koks, E. and Haer, T.: A high-resolution wind damage model for Europe, Sci.
Rep.-UK, 10, 6866, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63580-w, 2020.
Kong, X., Peng, P., Li, L., Zhang, K., Hu, Z., Wang, X., and Zhao, G.: Wind lodging-associated yield loss is reduced by wheat genetic diversity, Eur. J. Agron., 133, 126441, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2021.126441, 2022.
Kramer, M., Hansen, A., Taper, M., and Kissinger, E.: Abiotic controls on
long-term windthrow disturbance and temperate rain forest dynamics in
southeast Alaska, Ecology, 82, 2749–2768, 2001.
Krayer, W. and Marshall, R.: Gust factors applied to hurricane winds, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 73, 613–617, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073<0613:gfathw>2.0.co;2, 1992.
Krejci, L., Kolejka, J., Vozenilek, V., and Machar, I.: Application of GIS to
empirical windthrow risk model in mountain forested landscapes, Forests, 9,
96, https://doi.org/10.3390/f9020096, 2018.
Kushla, J. and Ripple, W.: The role of terrain in a fire mosaic of a
temperate coniferous forest, Forest Ecol. Manag., 95, 97–107,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0378-1127(97)82929-5, 1997.
Lamb, H.: Historic storms of the North Sea, British Isles, and Northwest
Europe, Cambridge University Press, ISBN 10: 0521619319, 1991.
Leckebusch, G., Renggli, D., and Ulbrich, U.: Development and application of
an objective storm severity measure for the Northeast Atlantic region, Meteorol. Z., 17, 575–587, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0323, 2008.
Lee, S., Furtado, J., and Charlton-Perez, A.: Wintertime North American
weather regimes and the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 14892–14900, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085592, 2019.
Lepore, C., Abernathey, R., Henderson, N., Allen, J. T., and Tippett, M. K.: Future global convective environments in CMIP6 models, Earth's Future, 9, e2021EF002277, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002277, 2021.
Leviäkangas, P., Tuominen, A., Molarius, R., Kojo, H., Schabel, J., Toivonen, S., Keränen, J., Ludvigsen, J., Vajda, A., Tuomenvirta, H., Juga, I., Nurmi, P., Rauhala, J., Rehm, F., Gerz, T., Muehlhausen, T., Schweighofer, J., Michaelides, S., Papadakis, M., Dotzek, N., and Groenemeijer, P.: Extreme weather impacts on transport systems, VTT Working Papers 168, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland,
https://www.vttresearch.com/sites/default/files/pdf/workingpapers/2011/W168.pdf,
(last access: 14 December 2021), 2011.
Liberato, M., Pinto, J. G., Trigo, I., and Trigo, R.: Klaus – an exceptional
winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France, Weather, 66, 330–334,
https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.755, 2011.
Lindén, J. and Holmer, B.: Thermally induced wind patterns in the
Sahelian city of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 105,
229–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0383-7, 2011.
Liu, R., Liu, S., Yang, X., Lu, H., Pan, X., Xu, Z., Ma, Y., and Xu, T.:
Wind Dynamics Over a Highly Heterogeneous Oasis Area: An Experimental and
Numerical Study, J. Geophys, Res.-Atmos., 123, 8418–8440, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028397, 2018.
Locatelli, T., Tarantola, S., Gardiner, B., and Patenaude, G.: Variance-based
sensitivity analysis of a wind risk model - Model behaviour and lessons for
forest modelling, Environ. Modell. Softw., 87, 84–109, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.010, 2017.
Ma, Q., Lembo, V., and Franzke, C.: The Lorenz energy cycle: trends and the
impact of modes of climate variability, Tellus A, 73, 1–15, 2021.
Machar, I., Pechanec, V., Brus, J., Kilianova, H., and Kirchner, K.: Forest
management at the upper treeline in Jeseniky Mountains (Czech Republic), in:
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference – SGEM 2014, Albena, Bulgaria, 17–26 June 2014, Albena, Bulgaria, STEF92 Technology Ltd., Sofia, Bulgaria, 361–366, ISBN 978-619-7105-17-9, 2014.
Mailier, P., Stephenson, D., Ferro, C., and Hodges, K.: Serial clustering of
extratropical cyclones, Mon. Weather Rev., 134, 2224–2240, 2006.
Mansuy, N., Boulanger, Y., Terrier, A., Gauthier, S., Robitaille, A., and Bergeron, Y.: Spatial attributes of fire regime in eastern Canada: influences of regional landscape physiography and climate, Landscape Ecol., 29, 1157–1170, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10980-014-0049-4, 2014.
Martius, O., Pfahl, S., and Chevalier, C.: A global quantification of
compound precipitation and wind extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43,
7709–7717, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070017, 2016.
Masoudvaziri, N., Ganguly, P., Mukherjee, S., and Sun, K.: Impact of
geophysical and anthropogenic factors on wildfire size: a spatiotemporal
data-driven risk assessment approach using statistical learning, Stoch.
Env. Res. Risk A., 36, 1103–1129, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-021-02087-w, 2022.
Masroor, M., Rehman, S., Avtar, R., Sahana, M., Ahmed, R., and Sajjad, H.:
Exploring climate variability and its impact on drought occurrence: evidence
from Godavari Middle sub-basin, India, Weather and Climate Extremes, 30, 100277, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2020.100277, 2020.
Mayer, H.: Wind-induced tree sways, Trees, 1, 195–206,
https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01816816, 1987.
Mayer, P., Brang, P., Dobbertin, M., Hallenbarter, D., Renaud, J., Walthert,
L., and Zimmermann, S.: Forest storm damage is more frequent on acidic soils,
Ann. Forest Sci., 62, 303–311, 2005.
McGinley, J.: A Diagnosis of Alpine Lee Cyclogenesis, Mon. Weather Rev., 110,
1271–1287, 1982.
McVicar, T., Roderick, M., Donohue, R., Li, L., van Niel, T., Thomas, A., Grieser, J., Jhajharia, D., Himri, Y., Mahowald, N. M., Mescherskaya, A. V., Kruger, A. C., Rehman, S., and Dinpashoh, Y.: Global review and synthesis of trends in observed terrestrial
near-surface wind speed: Implications for evaporation, J. Hydrol., 416–417, 182–205, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.024, 2012.
Merz, B., Kuhlicke, C., Kunz, M., Pittore, M., Babeyko, A., Bresch, D. N.,
Domeisen, D. I., Feser, F., Koszalka, I., Kreibich, H., and Pantillon, F.:
Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards,
Rev. Geophys., 58, e2020RG000704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704, 2020.
Messmer, M. and Simmonds, I.: Global analysis of cyclone-induced compound
precipitation and wind extreme events, Weather and Climate Extremes, 32, 100324, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100324, 2021.
MetEireann warning levels:
https://www.met.ie/met-eireann-warning-system-explained, last access:
10 January 2023.
Miller, K. F.: Windthrow hazard in conifer plantations, Irish Forestry, 43,
66–78, 1986.
Milne, R.: Dynamics of swaying of Picea sitchensis, Tree Physiol., 9, 383–399, https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/9.3.383, 1991.
Mitchell, S.: Wind as a natural disturbance agent in forests: a synthesis,
Forestry, 86, 147–157, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cps058, 2013.
Mitchell, S., Hailemariam, T., and Kulis, Y.: Empirical modeling of cutblock
edge windthrow risk on Vancouver Island, Canada, using stand level information, Forest Ecol. Manag., 154, 117–130, 2001.
Mitchell-Wallace, K., Jones, M., Hillier, J., and Foote, M.: Natural
catastrophe risk management and modelling: A practitioner's guide, John
Wiley & Sons, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118906057, ISBN: 9781118906040, ISBN: 9781118906057, 2017.
Moemken, J., Reyers, M., Feldmann, H., and Pinto, J. G.: Future Changes of
Wind Speed and Wind Energy Potentials in EURO-CORDEX Ensemble Simulations,
J. Geophys. Res., 123, 6373–6389, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028473, 2018.
Mohammadi, M., Finnan, J., Sterling, M., and Baker, C.: A calibrated oat lodging model compared with agronomic measurements, Field Crop. Res., 255, 107784, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2020.107784, 2020.
Morimoto, J., Nakagawa, K., Takano, K., Aiba, M., Oguro, M., Furukawa, Y.,
Mishima, Y., Ogawa, K., Ito, R., Takemi, T., Nakamura, F., and Peterson, C.:
Comparison of vulnerability to catastrophic wind between Abies plantation forests and natural mixed forests in northern Japan, Forestry, 92, 436–443, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/cpy045, 2019.
Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft: Munich Re:
Winterstürme in Europa (II) – Schadenanalyse 1999 –
Schadenspotentiale, Münchener Rück, 1999.
Murshed, S. and Reed, E.: Mapping of the vulnerability of forest resources
due to extreme winter storms in the state of Baden-Württemberg in
Germany, AutoCarto, 128–140, 2016.
Negrón-Juárez, R., Chambers, J., Guimaraes, G., Zeng, H., Raupp, C., Marra, D. M., Ribeiro, G., Saatchi, S., Nelson, B., and Higuchi, N.: Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L16701, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043733, 2010.
Neal, R. A., Boyle, P., Grahame, N., Mylne, K., and Sharpe, M.: Ensemble based first guess support towards a risk-based severe weather warning service: ensemble severe weather forecasts, Meteorol. Appl., 21, 563–577, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1377, 2014.
Neu, U., Akperov, M., Bellenbaum, N., Benestad, R., Blender, R., Caballero,
R., Cocozza, A., Dacre, H., Feng, Y., Fraedrich, K., Grieger, J., Gulev, S.,
Hanley, J., Hewson, T., Inatsu, M., Keay, K., Kew, S., Kindem, I.,
Leckebusch, G., Liberato, M., Lionello, P., Mokhov, I., Pinto, J. G.,
Raible, C., Reale, M., Rudeva, I., Schuster, M., Simmonds, I., Sinclair, M.,
Sprenger, M., Tilinina, N., Trigo, I., Ulbrich, S., Ulbrich, U., Wang, X., and Wernli, H.: IMILAST: a community effort to intercompare extratropical
cyclone detection and tracking algorithms, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 94,
529–547, 2013.
Nicoll, B. and Ray, D.: Adaptive growth of tree root systems in response to
wind action and site conditions, Tree Physiol., 16, 891–898,
https://doi.org/10.1093/treephys/16.11-12.891, 1996.
Nicoll, B., Gardiner, B., Rayner, B., and Peace, A.: Anchorage of coniferous
trees in relation to species, soil type, and rooting depth, Can. J. Forest
Res., 36, 1871–1883, https://doi.org/10.1139/x06-072, 2006.
Nicoll, B., Connolly, T., and Gardiner, B.: Changes in Spruce Growth and
Biomass Allocation Following Thinning and Guying Treatments, Forests, 10,
253, https://doi.org/10.3390/f10030253, 2019.
Niermann, D., Borsche, M., Kaiser-Weiss, A., and Kaspar, F.: Evaluating
renewable-energy-relevant parameters of COSMO-REA6 by comparison with
satellite data, station observations and other reanalyses, Meteorol. Z., 28,
347–360, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2019/0945, 2019.
Niu, L., Feng, S., Ding, W., and Li, G.: Influence of Speed and Rainfall on
Large-Scale Wheat Lodging from 2007 to 2014 in China, PloS ONE, 11, e0157677, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0157677, 2016.
Nosnikau, V., Gardiner, B., Donis, J., and Fedarovich, L.: The Overview of
Existing Silvicultural Approaches Under the Influence of Adverse Weather
Phenomena and Recommendations for Increasing the Forest Resilience to High
Wind Events in Belarus, World Bank: GFDRR, Minsk, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-
reports/documentdetail/874711556620591536/the-overview-of-existing-silvicultural-approaches-under-the-influence-of-adverse-weather-phenomena-and-recommendations-for-increasing-the-forest-resilience-to-high-wind-events-in-belarus
(lats access: 1 May 2023), 2018.
Oke, D., Mills, D., Christen, D., and Voogt, J.: Urban Climates, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, 582 pp., https://doi.org/10.1017/9781139016476, ISBN: 9781139016476, 2017.
Oliver, H. and Mayhead, G.: Wind Measurements in a Pine Forest During a
Destructive Gale, Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 47, 185–194, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/47.2.185, 1974.
Panofsky, H. and Dutton, J.: Atmospheric Turbulence, Wiley, New York, ISBN 10: 0471057142, 1984.
Pardowitz, T., Osinski, R., Kruschke, T., and Ulbrich, U.: An analysis of uncertainties and skill in forecasts of winter storm losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2391–2402, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2391-2016, 2016.
Parker, D.: Secondary frontal waves in the North Atlantic region: a
dynamical perspective of current ideas, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 124,
829–856, 1998.
Parodi, A., Lagasio, M., Maugeri, M., Turato, B., and Gallus, W.:
Observational and modelling study of a major downburst event in Liguria: The
14 October 2016 case, Atmosphere, 10, 1–17, https://doi.org/10.3390/ATMOS10120788,
2019.
Pasztor, F., Matulla, C., Zuvela-Aloise, M., Rammer, W., and Lexer, M.:
Developing predictive models of wind damage in Austrian forests, Ann. Forest
Sci., 72, 289–301, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-014-0386-0, 2015.
Pejovic, T., Williams, V. A., Noland, R. B., and Toumi, R.: Factors
Affecting the Frequency and Severity of Airport Weather Delays and the
Implications of Climate Change for Future Delays, Transp. Res. Record,
2139, 97–106, https://doi.org/10.3141/2139-12, 2009.
Peltola, H.: Swaying of trees in response to wind and thinning in a stand of
Scots pine, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 77, 285–304, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00123529, 1996.
Peltola, H.: Mechanical stability of trees under static loads, Am. J. Bot.,
93, 1501–1511, https://doi.org/10.3732/ajb.93.10.1501, 2006.
Peltola, H. and Kellomaki, S.: A mechanistic model for calculating windthrow and stem breakage of Scots pines at stand edge, Silva Fenn., 27, 99–111, 1993.
Peltola, H., Kellomäki, S., Väisänen, H., and Ikonen, V.-P.: A
mechanistic model for assessing the risk of wind and snow damage to single
trees and stands of Scots pine, Norway spruce, and birch, Can. J. Forest Res., 29, 647–661, https://doi.org/10.1139/x99-029, 1999.
Peña-Angulo, D., Reig-Gracia, F., Domínguez-Castro, F., Revuelto, J., Aguilar, E., van der Schrier, G., and Vicente-Serrano, S. M.: ECTACI: European Climatology and Trend Atlas of Climate Indices (1979–2017), J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 125, e2020JD032798, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032798, 2020.
Peterson, C.: Catastrophic wind damage to North American forests and the
potential impact of climate change, Sci. Total Environ., 262, 287–311,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0048-9697(00)00529-5, 2000.
Peterson, C., Ribeiro, G., Negrón-Juárez, R., Marra, D., Chambers,
J., Higuchi, N., Lima, A., and Cannon, J.: Critical wind speed suggest wind
could be an important disturbance agent in Amazonian forests, Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 92, 444–459, 2019.
Petrović, V. and Bottasso, C.: Wind turbine optimal control during storms, J. Phys. Conf. Ser., 524, 012052, https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/524/1/012052, 2014.
Pinto, J. G., Spangehl, T., Ulbrich, U., and Speth, P.: Sensitivities of a
cyclone detection and tracking algorithm: individual tracks and climatology,
Meteorol. Z., 14, 823–838, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2005/0068, 2005.
Pinto, J. G., Karremann, M., Born, K., Della-Marta, P., and Klawa, M.: Loss
potentials associated with European windstorms under future climate
conditions, Clim. Res., 54, 1–20, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01111, 2012.
Pinto, J. G., Gómara, I., Masato, G., Dacre, H., Woollings, T., and
Caballero, R.: Large-scale dynamics associated with clustering of
extratropical cyclones affecting Western Europe, J. Geophys. Res., 119,
13704–13719, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022305, 2014.
Prahl, B. F., Rybski, D., Kropp, J., Burghoff, O., and Held, H.: Applying
stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms: Damage
functions for German storm loss, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L06806,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL050961, 2012.
Prahl, B. F., Rybski, D., Burghoff, O., and Kropp, J. P.: Comparison of storm damage functions and their performance, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015, 2015.
Priestley, M., Ackerley, D., Catto, J., Hodges, K., McDonald, R., and Lee,
R.: An Overview of the Extratropical Storm Tracks in CMIP6 Historical
Simulations, J. Climate, 33, 6315–6343, 2020a.
Priestley, M., Dacre, H., Shaffrey, L., Schemm, S., and Pinto, J. G.: The
role of secondary cyclones and cyclone families for the North Atlantic storm
track and clustering over western Europe, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146,
1184–1205, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3733, 2020b.
Primo, C.: Wind gust warning verification, Adv. Sci. Res., 13, 113–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-13-113-2016, 2016.
Pryor, S. and Barthelmie, R.: Climate change impacts on wind energy: A
review, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14, 430–437,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2009.07.028, 2010.
Quaschning, V.: Understanding renewable energy systems, Routledge, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315769431, 2016.
Quayle, R. and Steadman, R.: The Steadman Wind Chill: An Improvement over Present Scales, Weather Forecast., 13, 1187–1193,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(1998)013<1187:TSWCAI>2.0.CO;2, 1998.
Queck, R., Bienert, A., Maas, H.-G., Harmansa, S., Goldberg, V., and
Bernhofer, C.: Wind fields in heterogeneous conifer canopies:
parameterisation of momentum absorption using high-resolution 3D vegetation
scans, Eur. J. Forest Res., 131, 165–176, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-011-0550-0, 2012.
Queck, R., Bernhofer, C., Bienert, A., and Schlegel, F.: The TurbEFA Field
Experiment – Measuring the Influence of a Forest Clearing on the Turbulent
Wind Field, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 160, 397–423, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-016-0151-z, 2016.
Qin, L., Liu, Q., Zhang, M., and Saeed, S.: Effect of measurement errors on
the estimation of tree biomass, Can. J. Forest Res., 49, 1371–1378,
https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2019-0034, 2019.
Quine, C. and White, I.: Revised windiness scores for the windthrow hazard
classification: the revised scoring method, Research Information Note 230, Research Division of the Forestry Authority, https://cdn.forestresearch.gov.uk/2022/02/rin230.pdf (31 May 2023), 1993.
Quine, C. and White, I.: The potential of distance-limited topex in the
prediction of site windiness, Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 71, 325–332, 1998.
Quine, C., Gardiner, B., and Moore, J.: Chapter Four - Wind disturbance in forests: The process of wind created gaps, tree overturning, and stem breakage, in: Plant Disturbance Ecology, Elsevier, New York, 117–184, https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-12-818813-2.00004-6, 2020.
Radinovic, D.: Mediterranean cyclones and their influence on the weather and
climate, PSMP Rep Series 24, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland, 131 pp., 1987.
Rajkumara, S.: Lodging in cereals – a review, Agricultural Reviews, 29, 55–60, 2008.
Raupach, M., Finnigan, J., and Brunet, Y.: Coherent eddies and turbulence in vegetation canopies: the mixing-layer analogy, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 78,
351–382, 1996.
R Core Team: R: A language and environment for statistical computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.R-project.org/ (last access: 1 May 2023), 2020.
Ritter, M., Shen, Z., López Cabrera, B., Odening, M., and Deckert, L.:
Designing an index for assessing wind energy potential, Renew. Energ., 83, 416–424, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2015.04.038, 2015.
Roberts, J. F., Champion, A. J., Dawkins, L. C., Hodges, K. I., Shaffrey, L. C., Stephenson, D. B., Stringer, M. A., Thornton, H. E., and Youngman, B. D.: The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2487–2501, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2487-2014, 2014.
Romanic, D. and Hangan, H.: Experimental investigation of the interaction
between near-surface atmospheric boundary layer winds and downburst outflows, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 205, 104323, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2020.104323, 2020.
Rouse, R. and Hodges, L.: Windbreaks, Agronomy and Horticulture Department, Agronomy and Horticulture – Faculty Publications, ISBN: 0935817875, 2004.
Rudnicki, M., Mitchell, S., and Novak, M.: Wind tunnel measurements of crown
streamlining and drag relationships for three conifer species, Can. J. Forest Res., 34, 666–676, https://doi.org/10.1139/x03-233, 2004.
Ruel, J., Pin, D., Spacek, L., Cooper, K., and Benoit, R.: The estimation of
wind exposure for windthrow hazard rating: comparison between Strongblow,
MC2, Topex and a wind tunnel study, Forestry: An International Journal of Forest Research, 70, 253–266, https://doi.org/10.1093/forestry/70.3.253, 1997.
Ruy, M., Gonçalves, R., and Vicente, W.: Effect of dimensional variables on the behavior of trees for biomechanical studies, Appl. Sci., 12, 3815, https://doi.org/10.3390/app12083815, 2022.
Schindler, D. and Kolbe, S.: Assessment of the Response of a Scots Pine Tree
to Effective Wind Loading, Forests, 11, 145, https://doi.org/10.3390/f11020145, 2020.
Schindler, D. and Mohr, M.: No resonant response of Scots pine trees to wind
excitation, Agr. Forest Meteorol., 265, 227–244,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.11.021, 2019.
Schindler, D., Grebhan, K., Albrecht, A., Schönborn, J., and Kohnle, U.:
GIS-based estimation of the winter storm damage probability in forests: A
case study from Baden-Wuerttemberg (Southwest Germany), Int. J. Biometeorol.,
56, 57–69, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-010-0397-y, 2012.
Schmidt, P.: Lastannahmen – Einwirkungen auf Tragwerke: Grundlagen und
Anwendung nach EC 1, Springer Vieweg, ISBN: 978-3-8348-9855-5, 2019.
Schultz, D., Bosart, L., Colle, B., Davies, H., Dearden, C., Keyser, D.,
Martius, O., Roebber, P., Steenburgh, W., Volkert, H., and Winters, A.:
Extratropical cyclones: a century of research on meteorology's centerpiece.
Meteor. Mon., 59, 16–1, 2019.
Schütz, J., Götz, M., Schmid, W., and Mandallaz, D.: Vulnerability
of spruce (Picea abies) and beech (Fagus sylvatica) forest stands to storms and consequences for silviculture, Eur. J. Forest Res., 125, 291–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10342-006-0111-0, 2006.
Schweighofer, J.: The impact of extreme weather and climate change on inland
waterway transport, Nat. Hazards, 72, 23–40, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-012-0541-6, 2014.
Scott, R. and Mitchell, S.: Empirical modelling of windthrow risk in
partially harvested stands using tree, neighbourhood, and stand attributes,
Forest Ecol. Manag., 218, 193–209, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2005.07.012, 2005.
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., and Zhou, B.: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 1513–1766, https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-11/ (last access: 1 May 2023), 2021.
Shahabinejad, N., Mahmoodabadi, M., Jalalian, A., and Chavoshi, E.: In situ
field measurement of wind erosion and threshold velocity in relation to soil
properties in arid and semiarid environments, Environ. Earth Sci., 78, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-019-8508-5, 2019.
Shapiro, M. and Keyser, D.: Fronts, jet-streams and the tropopause, in:
Extratropical cyclones, American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA, 167–191, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-944970-33-8_10, 1990.
Sharples, J.: Review of formal methodologies for wind-slope correction of
wildfire rate of spread, Int. J. Wildland Fire, 17, 179–193, 2008.
Sissakian, V., Al-Ansari, N., and Knutsson, S.: Sand and dust storm events in
Iraq, Natural Science, 5, 1084–1094, 2013.
Sivakumar, M.: Impacts of sand storms/dust storms on agriculture, in: Natural
Disasters and Extreme Events in Agriculture, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg,
159–177, https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-28307-2_10, 2005.
Slot, R. M. M., Sørensen, J. D., Svenningsen, L., Moser, W., and Thøgersen, M. L.: Effective turbulence and its implications in wind turbine fatigue assessment, Wind Energy, 22, 1699–1715, https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2397, 2019.
SMHI: SMHI Warnings and advisories, https://www.smhi.se/en/weather/sweden-weather/warnings,
last access: 10 January 2023.
Snæbjörnsson, J., Baker, C., and Sigbjörnsson, R.: Probabilistic
assessment of road vehicle safety in windy environments, J. Wind Eng. Ind.
Aerodyn., 95, 1445–1462, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2007.02.020, 2007.
Spatz, H.-C. and Theckes, B.: Oscillation damping in trees, Plant Sci., 207, 66–71, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.plantsci.2013.02.015, 2013.
Sprenger, M., Schmidli, J., and Egloff, L.: The Laseyer wind storm-case
studies and a climatology, Meteorol. Z., 27, 15–32,
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000239023, 2018.
Stefanski, R. and Sivakumar, M.: Impacts of sand and dust storms on agriculture and potential agricultural applications of a SDSWS, IOP C. Ser. Earth Env., 7, p. 12016, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1307/7/1/012016, 2009.
Stoll, R., Gibbs, J. A., Salesky, S. T., Anderson, W., and Calaf, M.: Large-Eddy Simulation of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer, Bound.-Lay. Meteorol., 177, 541–581, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-020-00556-3, 2020.
Stull, R.: An introduction to boundary layer meteorology, Springer Dordrecht,
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-3027-8, 1988.
Stull, R.: Practical Meteorology: An Algebra-based Survey of Atmospheric
Science, Black and White edn., Sundog Publishing, LLC, Vancouver, 942 pp., ISBN 978-0-88865-283-6, 2017.
Suárez, J., Gardiner, B., and Quine, C.: A comparison of three methods
for predicting wind speed in complex forested terrain, Meteorol. Appl., 6,
329–342, 1999.
Sulik, S. and Kejna, M.: The origin and course of severe thunderstorm
outbreaks in Poland on 10 and 11 August, 2017, Bulletin of Geography, Physical Geography Series, 18, 25–39, https://doi.org/10.2478/bgeo-2020-0003, 2020.
Suvanto, S., Henttonen, H., Nöjd, P., and Mäkinen, H.: Forest
susceptibility to storm damage is affected by similar factors regardless of
storm type: Comparison of thunder storms and autumn extra-tropical cyclones
in Finland, Forest Ecol. Manag., 381, 17–28, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2016.09.005, 2016.
Suvanto, S., Henttonen, H., Nöjd, P., and Mäkinen, H.: High-resolution topographical information improves tree-level storm damage
models, Can. J. Forest Res., 48, 721–728, https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfr-2017-0315, 2018.
Takemi, T., Yoshida, T., Horiguchi, M., and Vanderbauwhede, W.:
Large-Eddy-simulation analysis of airflows and strong wind hazards in urban
areas, Urban Climate, 32, 100625, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2020.100625, 2020.
Tamura, Y.: Wind-induced damage to buildings and disaster risk reduction, in: The Seventh Asia-Pacific Conference on Wind Engineering, Taipei, Taiwan, 8–12 November 2009, 23 pp., 2009.
Taszarek, M., Allen, J. T., Brooks, H. E., Pilguj, N., and Czernecki, B.:
Differing trends in United States and European severe thunderstorm
environments in a warming climate, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E296–E322, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0004.1, 2021.
Taylor, A., Dracup, E., MacLean, D., Boulanger, Y., and Endicott, S.: Forest
structure more important than topography in determining windthrow during
Hurricane Juan in Canada's Acadian Forest, Forest Ecol. Manag., 434,
255–263, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2018.12.026, 2019.
Telewski, F.: 14 - Wind-induced physiological and developmental responses in
trees, in: Wind and Trees, edited by: Grace, J. and Coutts, M., Cambridge University Press, 237–263, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511600425.015, 1995.
Theofilatos, A. and Yannis, G.: A review of the effect of traffic and
weather characteristics on road safety, Accident Anal. Prev., 72, 244–256,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2014.06.017, 2014.
Thornes, J. and Davis, B.: Mitigating the impact of weather and climate on
railway operations in the UK, in: ASME/IEEE Joint Railroad Conference, Washington, DC, USA, 23–25 April 2002, IEEE, 29–38, https://doi.org/10.1109/RRCON.2002.1000089, 2002.
Tomas-Burguera, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Peña-Angulo, D., Domínguez-Castro, F., Noguera, I., and El Kenawy, A.: Global Characterization of the Varying Responses of the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index to Atmospheric Evaporative Demand, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos, 125, e2020JD033017, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD033017, 2020.
Tomczak, A., Jelonek, T., Grzywiński, W., Mania, P., Tomczak, K., and
Pazdrowski, W.: The Effects of Wind Exposure on Scots Pine Trees:
Within-Stem Variability of Wood Density and Mechanical Properties, Forests,
11, 1095, https://doi.org/10.3390/f11101095, 2020.
Torshizi, M., Miri, A., Shahriari, A., Dong, Z., and Davidson-Arnott, R.:
The effectiveness of a multi-row Tamarix windbreak in reducing aeolian
erosion and sediment flux, Niatak area, Iran, J. Environ. Manage., 265,
110486, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110486, 2020.
Torun, P. and Altunel, A.: Effects of environmental factors and forest
management on landscape-scale forest storm damage in Turkey, Ann. Forest
Sci., 77, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13595-020-00945-1, 2020.
Trigo, I., Davies, T., and Bigg, G.: Objective climatology of cyclones in the
Mediterranean region, J. Climate, 12, 1685–1696, 1999.
Troen, I. and Petersen, E.: European Wind Atlas, 1st ed., Risø National
Laboratory, Roskilde, ISBN: 87-550-1482-8, 1989.
TT Club, ICHCA International, and Port Equipment Manufacturers Association:
Recommended minimum safety specifications for quay container cranes, TT Club
(in collaboration with ICHCA International and PEMA),
https://www.ttclub.com/-/media/files/tt-club/port-equipment-information-papers/
recommended-minimum-safety-features-for-quay-container-cranes.pdf
(last access: 14 December 2021), 2011.
Uchida, T. and Kawashima, Y.: New Assessment Scales for Evaluating the
Degree of Risk of Wind Turbine Blade Damage Caused by Terrain-Induced
Turbulence, Energies, 12, 2624, https://doi.org/10.3390/en12132624, 2019.
Uchida, T. and Li, G.: Comparison of RANS and LES in the Prediction of
Airflow Field over Steep Complex Terrain, Open Journal of Fluid Dynamics, 8, 286, https://doi.org/10.4236/ojfd.2018.83018, 2018.
Uchida, T. and Ohya, Y.: Large-eddy simulation of turbulent airflow over
complex terrain, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerod., 91, 219–229,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-6105(02)00347-1, 2003.
Uchida, T. and Ohya, Y.: Micro-siting technique for wind turbine generators
by using large-eddy simulation, J. Wind Eng. Ind. Aerodyn., 96,
2121–2138, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jweia.2008.02.047, 2008.
Uchida, T. and Ohya, Y.: Latest Developments in Numerical Wind Synopsis
Prediction Using the RIAM-COMPACT® CFD Model – Design Wind Speed Evaluation and Wind Risk (Terrain-Induced Turbulence) Diagnostics in Japan, Energies, 4, 458–474, https://doi.org/10.3390/en4030458, 2011.
Uchida, T. and Sugitani, K.: Numerical and Experimental Study of Topographic
Speed-Up Effects in Complex Terrain, Energies, 13, 3896,
https://doi.org/10.3390/en13153896, 2020.
Ulbrich, U., Leckebusch, G., and Pinto, J. G.: Extra-tropical cyclones in the
present and future climate: a review, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 96, 117–131,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0083-8, 2009.
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs: World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, UN DESA/POP/2022/TR/NO. 3, Population Division, New York, https://population.un.org/wpp/Publications/ (last access: 1 May 2023), 2022.
University of Bonn: COSMO-REA2 data set, University of Bonn [data set], https://reanalysis.meteo.uni-bonn.de/?Download_Data___COSMO-REA2, last access 31 May 2023.
Usbeck, T., Wohlgemuth, T., Pfister, C., Volz, R., Beniston, M., and
Dobbertin, M.: Wind speed measurements and forest damage in Canton Zurich
(Central Europe) from 1891 to winter 2007: Wind Speed Measurements and
Forest Damage in Canton Zurich, Int. J. Climatol., 30, 347–358,
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1895, 2010.
Vajda, A., Tuomenvirta, H., Juga, I., Nurmi, P., Jokinen, P., and Rauhala,
J.: Severe weather affecting European transport systems: the identification,
classification and frequencies of events, Nat. Hazard., 72, 169–188,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0895-4, 2014.
van Oldenborgh, G. J., Krikken, F., Lewis, S., Leach, N. J., Lehner, F., Saunders, K. R., van Weele, M., Haustein, K., Li, S., Wallom, D., Sparrow, S., Arrighi, J., Singh, R. K., van Aalst, M. K., Philip, S. Y., Vautard, R., and Otto, F. E. L.: Attribution of the Australian bushfire risk to anthropogenic climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 941–960, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-941-2021, 2021.
Van Wagner, C. and Forest, P.: Development and structure of the Canadian
forest fire weather index system, Canadian Forestry Service, Forestry Tech. Rep., 35 pp., https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/publications?id=19927 (last access: 1 May 2023), 1987.
Verkaik, J. W.: Evaluation of Two Gustiness Models for Exposure Correction
Calculations, J. Appl. Meteorol., 39, 1613–1626,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2000)039<1613:EOTGMF>2.0.CO;2, 2000.
Vitolo, R., Stephenson, D., Cook, I., and Mitchell-Wallace, K.: Serial
clustering of intense European storms, Meteorol. Z, 18, 411–424, 2009.
Vogel, S.: Drag and Reconfiguration of Broad Leaves in High Winds, J. Exp.
Bot., 40, 941–948, 1989.
Vollsinger, S., Mitchell, S. J., Byrne, K. E., Novak, M. D., and Rudnicki,
M.: Wind tunnel measurements of crown streamlining and drag relationships
for several hardwood species, Can. J. Forest Res., 35, 1238–1249,
https://doi.org/10.1139/x05-051, 2005.
Wahl, S., Bollmeyer, C., Crewell, S., Figura, C., Friederichs, P., Hense,
A., Keller, J. D., and Ohlwein, C.: A novel convective-scale regional
reanalysis COSMO-REA2: Improving the representation of precipitation,
Meteorol. Z., 26, 345–361, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2017/0824, 2017.
Wahl, T., Jain, S., Bender, J., Meyers, S., and Luther, M.: Increasing risk
of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US cities,
Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 1093–1097, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2736, 2015.
Wang, B., Xu, Y., Zhu, L., and Li, Y.: Crosswind effect studies on road vehicle passing by bridge tower using computational fluid dynamics, Eng.
Appl. Comp. Fluid, 8, 330–344, https://doi.org/10.1080/19942060.2014.11015519, 2014.
Wallace, J. and Hobbs, P.: Atmospheric science: an introductory survey, Vol. 92, Elsevier, ISBN: 9780127329512, 2006.
Welker, C., Röösli, T., and Bresch, D. N.: Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 279–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-279-2021, 2021.
Weninger, T., Scheper, S., Lackóová, L., Kitzler, B., Gartner, K., King, N. W., Cornelis, W., Strauss, P., and Michel, K.: Ecosystem services of tree
windbreaks in rural landscapes–a systematic review, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 103002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1d0d, 2021.
Wiréhn, L., Käyhkö, J., Neset, T. S., and Juhola, S.: Analysing trade-offs in adaptation decision-making – agricultural management under climate change in Finland and Sweden, Reg. Environ. Change, 20, 1–14, 2020.
Woollings, T., Hannachi, A., and Hoskins, B.: Variability of the North
Atlantic eddy-driven jet-stream, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 856–868,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.625, 2010.
Young, I.: Seasonal variability of the global ocean wind and wave climate,
Int. J. Climatol., 19, 931–950, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199907)19:9<931::AID-JOC412>3.0.CO;2-O, 1999.
Zappa, G., Shaffrey, L., Hodges, K., Sansom, P., and Stephenson, D.: A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European
extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models, J. Climate, 26, 5846–5862, 2013.
Zscheischler, J., Westra, S., van den Hurk, B., Seneviratne, S., Ward, P.,
Pitman, A., AghaKouchak, A., Bresch, D., Leonard, M., Wahl, T., and Zhang,
X.: Future climate risk from compound events, Nat. Clim. Change, 8,
469–477, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3, 2018.
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C.,
Horton, R. M., van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A.,
Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A., Ridder, N., Thiery, W., and Vignotto,
E.: A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, 333–347, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z, 2020.
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint