Articles | Volume 23, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1335-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review article
| 
06 Apr 2023
Review article |
| 06 Apr 2023
| 06 Apr 2023
Review article: Design and evaluation of weather index insurance for multi-hazard resilience and food insecurity
Marcos Roberto Benso
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
WADI Lab, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São
Carlos, SP, Brazil
National Institute of Science and Technology for the Fight Against Hunger, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 (INCT-II), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo
WADI Lab, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São
Carlos, SP, Brazil
Roberto Fray Silva
Institute of Advanced Studies, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Center for Artificial Intelligence (C4AI), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
National Institute of Science and Technology for the Fight Against Hunger, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Greicelene Jesus Silva
WADI Lab, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São
Carlos, SP, Brazil
National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 (INCT-II), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Luis Miguel Castillo Rápalo
WADI Lab, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São
Carlos, SP, Brazil
Fabricio Alonso Richmond Navarro
WADI Lab, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São
Carlos, SP, Brazil
Patricia Angélica Alves Marques
Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, SP, Brazil
Center for Artificial Intelligence (C4AI), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 (INCT-II), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
José Antônio Marengo
Brazilian National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 (INCT-II), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
WADI Lab, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São
Carlos, SP, Brazil
Center for Artificial Intelligence (C4AI), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
National Institute of Science and Technology for the Fight Against Hunger, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
National Institute of Science and Technology for Climate Change Phase 2 (INCT-II), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
Related authors
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Nikunj K. Mangukiya, Maria Clara Fava, Ashutosh Sharma, Roberto Fray da Silva, Ankit Agarwal, Maria Tereza Razzolini, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Narendra K. Goel, Mathew Kurian, and Adelaide Cássia Nardocci
Proc. IAHS, 386, 41–46, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-41-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-386-41-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
More and more extreme rainfall causes flooding problems in cities and communities, affecting the health and well-being of the population, as well as causing damage to the economy. To help design actions aiming at reducing the impacts of these floods, computational models can be used to simulate their extent. However, there are different types of models currently available. In this study, we evaluated three different models, for a city in Brazil and a region in India, to guide the best use of it.
Gabriela C. Gesualdo, Marcos R. Benso, Fabrício A. R. Navarro, Luis M. Castillo, and Eduardo M. Mendiondo
Proc. IAHS, 385, 117–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-385-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We simulated indexed insurance for a water utility responsible for providing water to 7.2 million people in a metropolitan region. According to our findings, an annual amount (premium) of USD 0.43, 0.87, and 1.73 should be charged per person to obtain drought coverage for three, six, and twelve months. The premium fee can be implemented in the water bills as a new strategy to pool the risk between the supplied users and the utility, to prevent them from being exposed to surcharge fluctuations.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Gesualdo Chiquito, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-3002, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The production of food is susceptible to several climate hazards such as droughts, excessive rainfall, and heat waves. In this paper, we present a methodology that uses artificial intelligence for assessing the impact of climate risks on food production. Our methodology helps us to automatically select the most relevant indices and critical thresholds of these indices that when surpassed can increase the danger of crop yield loss.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Enner Alcântara, José A. Marengo, José Mantovani, Luciana R. Londe, Rachel Lau Yu San, Edward Park, Yunung Nina Lin, Jingyu Wang, Tatiana Mendes, Ana Paula Cunha, Luana Pampuch, Marcelo Seluchi, Silvio Simões, Luz Adriana Cuartas, Demerval Goncalves, Klécia Massi, Regina Alvalá, Osvaldo Moraes, Carlos Souza Filho, Rodolfo Mendes, and Carlos Nobre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1157–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The municipality of Petrópolis (approximately 305 687 inhabitants) is nestled in the mountains 68 km outside the city of Rio de Janeiro. On 15 February 2022, the city of Petrópolis in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, received an unusually high volume of rain within 3 h (258 mm). This resulted in flash floods and subsequent landslides that caused 231 fatalities, the deadliest landslide disaster recorded in Petrópolis. This work shows how the disaster was triggered.
Ashish Shrestha, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Samuel Park, Charlotte Cherry, Margaret Garcia, David J. Yu, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 4893–4917, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4893-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Equitable sharing of benefits is key to successful cooperation in transboundary water resource management. However, external changes can shift the split of benefits and shifts in the preferences regarding how an actor’s benefits compare to the other’s benefits. To understand how these changes can impact the robustness of cooperative agreements, we develop a socio-hydrological system dynamics model of the benefit sharing provision of the Columbia River Treaty and assess a series of scenarios.
Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Paulo Tarso Oliveira, Dulce Buchala Bicca Rodrigues, and Hoshin Vijai Gupta
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 4955–4968, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-4955-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the São Paulo metropolitan region. Our findings indicate an expansion of the basin critical period, and identify October and November as the most vulnerable months. There is an urgent need to implement efficient mitigation and adaptation policies that recognize the annual pattern of variation between insecure and secure periods.
Denise Taffarello, Raghavan Srinivasan, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, João Luis Bittencourt Guimarães, Maria do Carmo Calijuri, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4699–4723, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4699-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-4699-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios under different land uses, related to ecosystem-based adaptation in subtropical headwaters. Using a spatially semi-distributed model, nitrate, total phosphorous loads and sediments yield were modeled in Brazilian catchments ranging from 7 to 1037 km2. In short, we proposed the new hydrologic services index as a composite metric comparing water pollution levels for reference catchments related to the grey water footprint and water yield.
Diego A. Guzmám, Guilherme S. Mohor, Denise Taffarello, and Eduardo M. Mendiondo
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-615, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-615, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
Climate variability and increasing water demands prioritize the need to implement planning strategies for urban water security. Within the context of managing the financial resilience, we have explored how to evaluate the water utility company economic profit losses to face the hydrological drought impacts. Thus, the main objective of this work is propose a methodology to integrate the coevolution of anthropogenic factors and climate, which directly influence water availability.
Jose A. Marengo, Gilberto F. Fisch, Lincoln M. Alves, Natanael V. Sousa, Rong Fu, and Yizhou Zhuang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 7671–7681, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7671-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-7671-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The onset and demise of the rainy season in Amazonia are assessed in this study using meteorological data from the GoAmazon experiment for the 2014–15 rainy season. The onset of the rainy season was strongly associated with changes in large-scale circulation in the region, and our analyses using regional thermodynamic indices suggest that local changes such the regional thermodynamic characteristics may have been less important on the occurrence of the onset compared to large-scale circulation.
A. Drumond, J. Marengo, T. Ambrizzi, R. Nieto, L. Moreira, and L. Gimeno
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2577–2598, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2577-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2577-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: Lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree River basin, Germany
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
A Guide of Indicators Creation for Critical Infrastructures Resilience. Based on a Multi-criteria Framework Focusing on Optimisation Actions for Road Transport System
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Dynamic Response of Pile-Slab Retaining Wall Structure under Rockfall Impact
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Analysis of flood warning and evacuation efficiency by comparing damage and life-loss estimates with real consequences related to the São Francisco tailings dam failure in Brazil
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Criteria-based visualization design for hazard maps
Low-regret climate change adaptation in coastal megacities – evaluating large-scale flood protection and small-scale rainwater detention measures for Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Modeling compound flood risk and risk reduction using a globally applicable framework: a pilot in the Sofala province of Mozambique
Scenario-based multi-risk assessment from existing single-hazard vulnerability models. An application to consecutive earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
Using machine learning algorithms to identify predictors of social vulnerability in the event of a hazard: Istanbul case study
Large-scale risk assessment on snow avalanche hazard in alpine regions
Probabilistic and machine learning methods for uncertainty quantification in power outage prediction due to extreme events
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1188, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The disaster impacts were largely associated with a fast urban expansion over the last three decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Also, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-758, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances will increase in the future endangering our forests and their provision of wood, protection against natural hazards and carbon sequestration. Considering the hazard to forests by wind or fire damage together with vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize high-risk forest stands. In this study we propose a new methodological approach helping with decision-making process for climate-smart forest management.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in water management, spatial and landscape planning in the Spree River basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this planning gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures and the adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-204, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Operationalision of “resilience” will be a major milestone contributing to hazard management for Critical infrastructures (CIs). To integrate resilience assessment into operational management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables users to create specific indicators to suit their particular situation. The assessment results can assist CIs managers in their decision-making as it is based on a multi-criteria framework that considers the various interests of stakeholders.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2715, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This manuscript addresses to numerically analyze the dynamic responses and damage mechanism of the pile-slab retaining wall under the rockfall impacts by employing the refined finite element model. The results provide insights into structure dynamic response analysis of the PSRW and serve as a benchmark for further research.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction on the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructures to increase their capabilities.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
André Felipe Rocha Silva and Julian Cardoso Eleutério
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3095–3110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3095-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work evaluates the application of flood consequence models through their application in a real case related to a tailings dam failure. Furthermore, we simulated the implementation of less efficient alert systems on life-loss alleviation. The results revealed that the models represented the event well and were able to estimate the relevance of implementing efficient alert systems. They highlight that their use may be an important tool for new regulations for dam safety legislation.
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, and Zacharias Fasoulakis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-137, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses which can impact population and assets of different types. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess the feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed to facilitate a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Max Schneider, Fabrice Cotton, and Pia-Johanna Schweizer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2505–2521, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2505-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Hazard maps are fundamental to earthquake risk reduction, but research is missing on how to design them. We review the visualization literature to identify evidence-based criteria for color and classification schemes for hazard maps. We implement these for the German seismic hazard map, focusing on communicating four properties of seismic hazard. Our evaluation finds that the redesigned map successfully communicates seismic hazard in Germany, improving on the baseline map for two key properties.
Leon Scheiber, Christoph Gabriel David, Mazen Hoballah Jalloul, Jan Visscher, Hong Quan Nguyen, Roxana Leitold, Javier Revilla Diez, and Torsten Schlurmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2333–2347, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2333-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Like many other megacities in low-elevation coastal zones, Ho Chi Minh City in southern Vietnam suffers from the convoluting impact of changing environmental stressors and rapid urbanization. This study assesses quantitative hydro-numerical results against the background of the low-regret paradigm for (1) a large-scale flood protection scheme as currently constructed and (2) the widespread implementation of small-scale rainwater detention as envisioned in the Chinese Sponge City Program.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Massimiliano Pittore, Nils Brinckmann, Juan Lizarazo-Marriaga, Sergio Medina, Nicola Tarque, and Fabrice Cotton
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2203–2228, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
To investigate cumulative damage on extended building portfolios, we propose an alternative and modular method to probabilistically integrate sets of single-hazard vulnerability models that are being constantly developed by experts from various research fields to be used within a multi-risk context. We demonstrate its application by assessing the economic losses expected for the residential building stock of Lima, Peru, a megacity commonly exposed to consecutive earthquake and tsunami scenarios.
Oya Kalaycıoğlu, Serhat Emre Akhanlı, Emin Yahya Menteşe, Mehmet Kalaycıoğlu, and Sibel Kalaycıoğlu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2133–2156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2133-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The associations between household characteristics and hazard-related social vulnerability in Istanbul, Türkiye, were assessed using machine learning techniques. The results indicated that less educated households with no social security and job insecurity that live in squatter houses are at a higher risk of social vulnerability. We present the findings in an open-access R Shiny web application, which can serve as a guidance for identifying the target groups in the interest of risk mitigation.
Gregor Ortner, Michael Bründl, Chahan M. Kropf, Thomas Röösli, Yves Bühler, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2089–2110, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2089-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a new approach to assess avalanche risk on a large scale in mountainous regions. It combines a large-scale avalanche modeling method with a state-of-the-art probabilistic risk tool. Over 40 000 individual avalanches were simulated, and a building dataset with over 13 000 single buildings was investigated. With this new method, risk hotspots can be identified and surveyed. This enables current and future risk analysis to assist decision makers in risk reduction and adaptation.
Prateek Arora and Luis Ceferino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1665–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1665-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Power outage models can help utilities manage risks for outages from hurricanes. Our article reviews the existing outage models during hurricanes and highlights their strengths and limitations. Existing models can give erroneous estimates with outage predictions larger than the number of customers, can struggle with predictions for catastrophic hurricanes, and do not adequately represent infrastructure failure's uncertainties. We suggest models for the future that can overcome these challenges.
Cited articles
Abdi, M. J., Raffar, N., Zulkafli, Z., Nurulhuda, K., Rehan, B. M., Muharam, F. M., Khosim, N. A., and Tangang, F.: Index-based insurance and hydroclimatic risk management in agriculture: A systematic review of index selection and yield-index modelling methods, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 67, 102653, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102653, 2022. a, b, c, d
Akter, S.: The Role of Microinsurance as a Safety Net Against Environmental Risks in Bangladesh, J. Environ. Dev., 21, 263–280, https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496512442505, 2012. a
Aria, M. and Cuccurullo, C.: bibliometrix: An R-tool for comprehensive science mapping analysis, J. Informetr., 11, 959–975, 2017. a
Awondo, S. N.: Efficiency of region-wide catastrophic weather risk pools: Implications for African Risk Capacity insurance program, J. Dev. Econ., 136, 111–118, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2018.10.004, 2019. a, b
Baldos, U., Haqiqi, I., Hertel, T., Horridge, M., and Liu, J.: SIMPLE-G: A multiscale framework for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability, Environ. Modell. Softw., 133, 104805, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104805, 2020. a
Barnett, B. J., Barrett, C. B., and Skees, J. R.: Poverty Traps and Index-Based Risk Transfer Products, World Dev., 36, 1766–1785, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.10.016, 2008. a
Benso, M. R., Fray da Silva, R., Gesualdo, G.,
Jesus da Silva, G., Castillo, L., Richmond Navarro, F. A., Marques,
P. A. A., Marengo, J., Mendiondo, and Eduardo, M.: Multi-hazard
risk index insurance for soybean in Parana, Brazil, V1, Mendeley Data [data set],
https://doi.org/10.17632/3xjshm9n5w.1, 2023. a
Bhering, S. B., Dos Santos, H. G., Bognola, I., Cúrcio, G., Carvalho Junior, W. D., Chagas,
C. D. S., Manzatto, C., Áglio, M., and Silva, J. D. S.: Mapa de solos do Estado do Paraná,
legenda atualizada, in: 32th CONGRESSO BRASILEIRO DE CIÊNCIA DO SOLO, O solo e
a produção de bioenergia: perspectivas e desafios: anais, SBCS, Viçosa, MG; UFC,
Fortaleza, 2009. a
Blier-Wong, C., Cossette, H., Lamontagne, L., and Marceau, E.: Machine learning in P&C insurance: A review for pricing and reserving, Risks, 9, 4, https://doi.org/10.3390/risks9010004, 2020. a, b, c
Boyle, C. F., Haas, J., and Kern, J. D.: Development of an irradiance-based
weather derivative to hedge cloud risk for solar energy systems, Renew.
Energ., 164, 1230–1243, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.10.091, 2021. a, b, c, d
Brandão, A. D. and Sodek, L.: Nitrate uptake and metabolism by roots of soybean plants under oxygen deficiency, Brazilian Journal of Plant Physiology, 21, 13–23, 2009. a
Breiman, L.: Random forests, Mach. Learn., 45, 5–32, 2001. a
Brunner, M. I., Slater, L., Tallaksen, L. M., and Clark, M.: Challenges in modeling and predicting floods and droughts: A review, WIREs Water, 8, e1520, https://doi.org/10.1002/WAT2.1520, 2021. a
Cobo, M., López-Herrera, A., Herrera-Viedma, E., and Herrera, F.: An approach for detecting, quantifying, and visualizing the evolution of a research field: A practical application to the Fuzzy Sets Theory field, J. Informetr., 5, 146–166, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2010.10.002, 2011. a
Cremades, R., Surminski, S., Máñez Costa, M., Hudson, P., Shrivastava, P., and Gascoigne, J.: Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 4–7, 2018. a
da Silva, E. H. F. M., Antolin, L. A. S., Zanon, A. J., Junior, A. S. A., de Souza, H. A., dos Santos Carvalho, K., Junior, N. A. V., and Marin, F. R.: Impact assessment of soybean yield and water productivity in Brazil due to climate change, Eur. J. Agron., 129, 126329, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2021.126329, 2021. a
Denaro, S., Castelletti, A., Giuliani, M., and Characklis, G.: Fostering cooperation in power asymmetrical water systems by the use of direct release rules and index-based insurance schemes, Adv. Water Resour., 115, 301–314, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.09.021, 2018. a, b
Denaro, S., Castelletti, A., Giuliani, M., and Characklis, G.: Insurance Portfolio Diversification Through Bundling for Competing Agents Exposed to Uncorrelated Drought and Flood Risks, Water Resour. Res., 56, e2019WR026443, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019WR026443, 2020. a, b
Ejiyi, C. J., Qin, Z., Salako, A. A., Happy, M. N., Nneji, G. U., Ukwuoma, C. C., Chikwendu, I. A., and Gen, J.: Comparative Analysis of Building Insurance Prediction Using Some Machine Learning Algorithms, International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence, 7, 75–85, https://doi.org/10.9781/ijimai.2022.02.005, 2022. a
FAO: Chapter 2. Food security: concepts and measurement, Trade Reforms and Food Security, Conceptualizing the Linkages, Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Rome, https://www.fao.org/3/y4671e/y4671e06.htm (last access: 8 March 2023), 2003. a
FAO: The Water-Energy-Food Nexus A new approach in support of food security and sustainable agriculture, Food and Agriculture Organization, United Nations, Rome, https://www.fao.org/3/bl496e/bl496e.pdf (last access: 8 March 2023), 2014. a
Figueiredo, R., Martina, M. L., Stephenson, D. B., and Youngman, B. D.: A probabilistic paradigm for the parametric insurance of natural hazards, Risk Anal., 38, 2400–2414, 2018. a
Foster, B., Kern, J., and Characklis, G.: Mitigating hydrologic financial risk in hydropower generation using index-based financial instruments, Water Resources and Economics, 10, 45–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wre.2015.04.001, 2015. a
Frees, E. W., Derrig, R. A., and Meyers, G.: Predictive modeling applications in actuarial science, vol. 1, Cambridge University Press, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139342674, 2014. a
Furuya, J., Mar, S. S., Hirano, A., and Sakurai, T.: Optimum insurance contract of flood damage index insurance for rice farmers in Myanmar, Paddy Water Environ., 19, 319–330, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10333-021-00859-2, 2021. a, b, c
Ghosh, R. K., Gupta, S., Singh, V., and Ward, P. S.: Demand for Crop Insurance in Developing Countries: New Evidence from India, J. Agr. Econ., 72, 293–320, https://doi.org/10.1111/1477-9552.12403, 2021. a, b
Gill, J. C. and Malamud, B. D.: Reviewing and visualizing the interactions of natural hazards, Rev. Geophys., 52, 680–722, https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000445, 2014. a, b, c
Gómez-Limón, J. A.: Hydrological drought insurance for irrigated agriculture in southern Spain, Agr. Water Manage., 240, 106271, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106271, 2020. a, b, c, d
Guerrero-Baena, M. and Gómez-Limón, J.: Insuring Water Supply in Irrigated Agriculture: A Proposal for Hydrological Drought Index-Based Insurance in Spain, Water, 11, 686, https://doi.org/10.3390/w11040686, 2019. a, b, c
Guzmán, D. A., Mohor, G. S., and Mendiondo, E. M.: Multi-Year Index-Based Insurance for Adapting Water Utility Companies to Hydrological Drought: Case Study of a Water Supply System of the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region, Brazil, Water, 12, 2954, https://doi.org/10.3390/w12112954, 2020. a, b
Halcrow, H. G.: Actuarial Structures for Crop Insurance, Am. J. Agr. Econ., 31, 418, https://doi.org/10.2307/1232330, 1949. a
Hillier, J. K., Matthews, T., Wilby, R. L., and Murphy, C.: Multi-hazard dependencies can increase or decrease risk, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 595–598, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0832-y, 2020. a
Hoek van Dijke, A. J., Herold, M., Mallick, K., Benedict, I., Machwitz, M., Schlerf, M., Pranindita, A., Theeuwen, J. J., Bastin, J.-F., and Teuling, A. J.: Shifts in regional water availability due to global tree restoration, Nat. Geosci., 15, 363–368, 2022. a
Hohl, R., Jiang, Z., Vu, M. T., Vijayaraghavan, S., and Liong, S.-Y.: Using a regional climate model to develop index-based drought insurance for sovereign disaster risk transfer, Agricultural Finance Review, 81, 151–168, https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-02-2020-0020, 2021. a, b, c
Hudson, P., Botzen, W. W., Feyen, L., and Aerts, J. C.: Incentivising flood risk adaptation through risk based insurance premiums: Trade-offs between affordability and risk reduction, Ecol. Econ., 125, 1–13, 2016. a
IPCC: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge Press University, ISBN 978-92-9169-160-9, 2022. a
Kahneman, D. and Tversky, A.: Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk, Econometrica, 47, 263–292, https://doi.org/10.2307/1914185, 1979. a
Kath, J., Mushtaq, S., Henry, R., Adeyinka, A., and Stone, R.: Index insurance benefits agricultural producers exposed to excessive rainfall risk, Weather and Climate Extremes, 22, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.WACE.2018.10.003, 2018. a, b
Kath, J., Mushtaq, S., Henry, R., Adeyinka, A. A., Stone, R., Marcussen, T., and Kouadio, L.: Spatial variability in regional scale drought index insurance viability across Australia's wheat growing regions, Climate Risk Management, 24, 13–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2019.04.002, 2019. a, b, c, d
Keskitalo, E. C. H., Vulturius, G., and Scholten, P.: Adaptation to climate change in the insurance sector: examples from the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, Nat. Hazards, 71, 315–334, 2014. a
Kim, W., Iizumi, T., and Nishimori, M.: Global patterns of crop production losses associated with droughts from 1983 to 2009, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 58, 1233–1244, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-18-0174.1, 2019. a
Komendantova, N., Mrzyglocki, R., Mignan, A., Khazai, B., Wenzel, F., Patt, A., and Fleming, K.: Multi-hazard and multi-risk decision-support tools as a part of participatory risk governance: Feedback from civil protection stakeholders, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 8, 50–67, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2013.12.006, 2014. a
Kraehnert, K., Osberghaus, D., Hott, C., Habtemariam, L. T., Wätzold, F., Hecker, L. P., and Fluhrer, S.: Insurance Against Extreme Weather Events: An Overview, Review of Economics, 72, 71–95, https://doi.org/10.1515/roe-2021-0024, 2021. a
Leblois, A., Quirion, P., and Sultan, B.: Price vs. weather shock hedging for cash crops: Ex ante evaluation for cotton producers in Cameroon, Ecol. Econ., 101, 67–80, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.021, 2014. a
Lesk, C., Coffel, E., Winter, J., Ray, D., Zscheischler, J., Seneviratne, S. I., and Horton, R.: Stronger temperature–moisture couplings exacerbate the impact of climate warming on global crop yields, Nature Food, 2, 683–691, 2021. a
Liaw, A. and Wiener, M.: Classification and Regression by randomForest, R News, 2, 18–22, https://CRAN.R-project.org/doc/Rnews/ (last access: 8 March 2023), 2002. a
Liberati, A., Altman, D. G., Tetzlaff, J., Mulrow, C., Gøtzsche, P. C., Ioannidis, J. P., Clarke, M., Devereaux, P. J., Kleijnen, J., and Moher, D.: The PRISMA statement for reporting systematic reviews and meta-analyses of studies that evaluate health care interventions: explanation and elaboration, J. Clin. Epidemiol., 62, e1–e34, 2009. a, b
Lyubchich, V., Newlands, N. K., Ghahari, A., Mahdi, T., and Gel, Y. R.: Insurance risk assessment in the face of climate change: Integrating data science and statistics, WIREs Comput. Stat., 11, e1462, https://doi.org/10.1002/wics.1462, 2019. a
Machado, M. L., Nascimento, N., Baptista, M., Gonçalves, M., Silva, A., Lima, J. d., Dias, R., Silva, A., Machado, E., and Fernandes, W.: Curvas de danos de inundação versus profundidade de submersão: desenvolvimento de metodologia, Revista de Gestão de Água da América Latina, 2, 35–52, 2005. a
MacQueen, J.: Classification and analysis of multivariate observations, in: 5th Berkeley Symp. Math. Statist. Probability, 1966, Barkley, University of
California Press, 281–297, 1967. a
Miranda, M. J.: Area‐Yield Crop Insurance Reconsidered, Am. J. Agr. Econ., 73, 233–242, https://doi.org/10.2307/1242708, 1991. a, b
Monteleone, B., Borzí, I., Bonaccorso, B., and Martina, M.: Quantifying crop vulnerability to weather-related extreme events and climate change through vulnerability curves, Nat. Hazards, 1–36, online first, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05791-0, 2022. a
Mortensen, E. and Block, P.: ENSO Index-Based Insurance for Agricultural Protection in Southern Peru, Geosciences, 8, 64, https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8020064, 2018. a, b, c
Müller, A. and Grandi, M.: Weather Derivatives: A Risk Management Tool for Weather-sensitive Industries, Geneva Pap. R. I.-Iss. P., 25, 273–287, https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0440.00065, 2000. a, b
Mußhoff, O., Hirschauer, N., Grüner, S., and Pielsticker, S.: Bounded rationality and the adoption of weather index insurance, Agricultural Finance Review, 78, 116–134, https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-02-2017-0008, 2018. a
Nelsen, R. B.: An Introduction to Copulas, in: Springer Series in Statistics, Springer New York, New York, NY, https://doi.org/10.1007/0-387-28678-0, 2006. a
Norton, M. T., Turvey, C., and Osgood, D.: Quantifying spatial basis risk for weather index insurance, The Journal of Risk Finance, 14, 20–34, https://doi.org/10.1108/15265941311288086, 2013. a, b, c
Odening, M. and Shen, Z.: Challenges of insuring weather risk in agriculture, Agricultural Finance Review, 74, 188–199, https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-11-2013-0039, 2014. a
Parana: Levantamento da Produção Agropecuária, https://www.agricultura.pr.gov.br/deral/ProducaoAnual, last access: 8 March 2023. a
Paudel, Y., Botzen, W. J., and Aerts, J. C.: Influence of climate change and socio-economic development on catastrophe insurance: a case study of flood risk scenarios in the Netherlands, Reg. Environ. Change, 15, 1717–1729, 2015. a
Pereira, D. I., Pereira, P., Brilha, J., and Santos, L.: Geodiversity assessment of Paraná State (Brazil): an innovative approach, Environ. Manage., 52, 541–552, 2013. a
Peterson, T., Folland, C., Gruza, G., Hogg, W., Mokssit, A., and Plummer, N.: Report on the activities of the working group on climate change detection and related rapporteurs, World Meteorological Organization Geneva, http://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/docs/wgccd.2001.pdf (last access: 8 March 2023), 2001. a
Pislyakov, V. and Shukshina, E.: Measuring excellence in Russia: Highly cited papers, leading institutions, patterns of national and international
collaboration, J. Assoc. Inf. Sci. Tech., 65, 2321–2330, https://doi.org/10.1002/asi.23093, 2014. a
Platteau, J.-P., De Bock, O., and Gelade, W.: The demand for microinsurance: A literature review, World Dev., 94, 139–156, 2017. a
Porth, L., Boyd, M., and Pai, J.: Reducing risk through pooling and selective reinsurance using simulated annealing: An example from crop insurance, Geneva Risk Ins. Rev., 41, 163–191, 2016. a
R Core Team: R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria, https://www.r-project.org/ (last access: 8 March 2023), 2022. a
Raucci, G. L., Lanna, R., da Silveira, F., and Capitani, D. H. D.: Development of weather derivatives: evidence from the Brazilian soybean market, Italian Review of Agricultural Economics, 74, 17–28, https://doi.org/10.13128/REA-10850, 2019. a
Riahi, K., Van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O'Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., KC, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebi, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenöder, F., Da Silva, L. A., Smith, S., Stehfest, E., Bosetti, V., Eom, J., Gernaat, D., Masui, T., Rogelj, J., Strefler, J., Drouet, L., Krey, V., Luderer, G., Harmsen, M.,
Takahashi, K., Baumstark, L., Doelman, J. C., Kainuma, M., Klimont, Z., Marangoni, G., Lotze-Campen, H., Obersteiner, M., Tabeau, A., and Tavoni, M.: The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: an overview, Global Environ. Change, 42, 153–168, 2017. a
Ricome, A., Affholder, F., Gérard, F., Muller, B., Poeydebat, C., Quirion, P., and Sall, M.: Are subsidies to weather-index insurance the best use of public funds? A bio-economic farm model applied to the Senegalese groundnut basin, Agr. Syst., 156, 149–176, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2017.05.015, 2017. a
Righetto, J., Mendiondo, E., and Righetto, A.: Modelo de Seguro para Riscos Hidrológicos, Revista Brasileira de Recursos, 12, 107–113, https://doi.org/10.21168/rbrh.v12n2.p107-113, 2007. a
Rodríguez, Y. E., Pérez-Uribe, M. A., and Contreras, J.: Wind put barrier options pricing based on the Nordix index, Energies, 14, 1177, https://doi.org/10.3390/en14041177, 2021. a, b
Roznik, M., Brock Porth, C., Porth, L., Boyd, M., and Roznik, K.: Improving agricultural microinsurance by applying universal kriging and generalised additive models for interpolation of mean daily temperature, Geneva Pap. R. I.-Iss. P., 44, 446–480, https://doi.org/10.1057/s41288-019-00127-9, 2019. a
Sant, D. T.: Estimating Expected Losses in Auto Insurance, J. Risk Insur., 47, 133–151, https://doi.org/10.2307/252686, 1980. a
Sarris, A.: Weather index insurance for agricultural development: Introduction and overview, Agr. Econ., 44, 381–384, https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12022, 2013. a
Saxton, K. E. and Rawls, W. J.: Soil water characteristic estimates by texture and organic matter for hydrologic solutions, Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 70, 1569–1578, 2006. a
Scopus: What is Scopus about?, https://service.elsevier.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/15100/supporthub/scopus/ (last access: 8 March 2023), 2022. a
Sekhri, S., Kumar, P., Fürst, C., and Pandey, R.: Mountain specific multi-hazard risk management framework (MSMRMF): Assessment and mitigation of multi-hazard and climate change risk in the Indian Himalayan Region, Ecol. Indic., 118, 106700, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106700, 2020. a
Skees, J. R.: Challenges for use of index‐based weather insurance in lower
income countries, Agricultural Finance Review, 68, 197–217,
https://doi.org/10.1108/00214660880001226, 2008. a, b, c
Smith, A. B. and Matthews, J. L.: Quantifying uncertainty and variable sensitivity within the US billion-dollar weather and climate disaster cost estimates, Nat. Hazards, 77, 1829–1851, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-1678-x, 2015. a
Tilloy, A., Malamud, B. D., Winter, H., and Joly-Laugel, A.: A review of quantification methodologies for multi-hazard interrelationships, Earth-Sci. Rev., 196, 102881, https://doi.org/10.1016/J.EARSCIREV.2019.102881, 2019. a, b
Turvey, C., Shee, A., and Marr, A.: Addressing fractional dimensionality in the application of weather index insurance and climate risk financing in agricultural development: A dynamic triggering approach, Weather Clim. Soci., 11, 901–915, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-19-0014.1, 2019. a, b
UNDRR: 2009 unisdr terminology on disaster risk reduction, https://www.unisdr.org/files/7817_UNISDRTerminologyEnglish.pdf (last access: 8 March 2023), 2009. a
UNEP FI: Principles for sustainable insurance, UN Environment Programme Finance Initiative, Geneva, Switzerland, https://www.unepfi.org/insurance/insurance/ (last access: 8 March 2023), 2012. a
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic Change, 109, 5–31, 2011. a
Vroege, W., Bucheli, J., Dalhaus, T., Hirschi, M., and Finger, R.: Insuring crops from space: the potential of satellite-retrieved soil moisture to reduce farmers' drought risk exposure, Eur. Rev. Agric. Econ., 48, 266–314, https://doi.org/10.1093/erae/jbab010, 2021.
a, b, c
Wang, S. S.: A Universal Framework for Pricing Financial and Insurance Risks, ASTIN Bull., 32, 213–234, https://doi.org/10.2143/AST.32.2.1027, 2002. a
Yoshida, K., Srisutham, M., Sritumboon, S., Suanburi, D., Janjirauttikul, N., and Suanpaga, W.: Evaluation of economic damages on rice production under extreme climate and agricultural insurance for adaptation measures in Northeast Thailand, Engineering Journal, 23, 451–460, https://doi.org/10.4186/ej.2019.23.6.451, 2019. a
Zara, C.: Weather derivatives in the wine industry, International Journal of Wine Business Research, 22, 222–237, https://doi.org/10.1108/17511061011075365, 2010. a
Zscheischler, J., Martius, O., Westra, S., Bevacqua, E., Raymond, C., Horton, R. M., van den Hurk, B., AghaKouchak, A., Jézéquel, A., Mahecha, M. D., Maraun, D., Ramos, A. M., Ridder, N. N., Thiery, W., and Vignotto, E.: A typology of compound weather and climate events, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1, 333–347, 2020. a, b
Short summary
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts, extreme temperatures, and floods. The authors suggest that one way to do this is by offering insurance contracts that cover these different types of disasters. By having this insurance, farmers can receive financial support and recover more quickly. The article elicits different ideas about how to design this type of insurance and suggests ways to make it better.
This article is about how farmers can better protect themselves from disasters like droughts,...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint