Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 18 Jul 2022
| 18 Jul 2022
Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach
Md Jamal Uddin Khan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LEGOS UMR5566, CNRS/CNES/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
UMR 7266 LIENSs, CNRS – La Rochelle University, 17000 La Rochelle, France
Fabien Durand
LEGOS UMR5566, CNRS/CNES/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
Laboratório de Geoquímica, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de Brasilia, Brasilia, Brazil
Kerry Emanuel
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Yann Krien
SHOM, DOPS/STM/REC, Toulouse, France
Laurent Testut
LEGOS UMR5566, CNRS/CNES/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
UMR 7266 LIENSs, CNRS – La Rochelle University, 17000 La Rochelle, France
A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, IWFM, BUET, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
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This study analyzes the impacts of changing vegetation and atmospheric dust concentrations over an area that is currently desert (the Sahara) to investigate their impacts on tropical cyclone activity during a warm climate state, the mid-Holocene. Our results suggest a significant change in Atlantic TC frequency, intensity and seasonality when considering the effects of a warmer climate in a greener world. They also highlight the importance of considering these factors in future climate studies.
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Short summary
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline...
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