Articles | Volume 22, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Jul 2022
Research article |
| 18 Jul 2022
| 18 Jul 2022
Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach
Md Jamal Uddin Khan
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
LEGOS UMR5566, CNRS/CNES/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
UMR 7266 LIENSs, CNRS – La Rochelle University, 17000 La Rochelle, France
Fabien Durand
LEGOS UMR5566, CNRS/CNES/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
Laboratório de Geoquímica, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade de Brasilia, Brasilia, Brazil
Kerry Emanuel
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, MIT, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Yann Krien
SHOM, DOPS/STM/REC, Toulouse, France
Laurent Testut
LEGOS UMR5566, CNRS/CNES/IRD/UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
UMR 7266 LIENSs, CNRS – La Rochelle University, 17000 La Rochelle, France
A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, IWFM, BUET, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh
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Cited
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Physics-guided non-autoregressive transformer for lightweight cyclone track prediction in the Bay of Bengal A. Faiaz et al.
- Combining uncertain machine learning predictions and numerical simulation results for the extreme value analysis of cyclone-induced wave heights – Application in Guadeloupe J. Rohmer et al.
- Projections of tropical cyclone-driven storm-tide risk to critical infrastructure in the Bay of Bengal C. Blakely et al.
- Modelling and Mapping Rapid-Onset Coastal Flooding: A Systematic Literature Review A. Re et al.
- A statistical method to quantify the tide-surge interaction effects with application in probabilistic prediction of extreme storm tides along the northern coasts of the South China Sea W. Zhuge et al.
- Modeling the extreme sea levels and waves in the northern South China Sea: A synthetic tropical cyclone approach W. Zhuge et al.
- A data-driven framework for enhancing coastal flood resilience in resource-crunched developing nations A. Narendr et al.
- Tropical cyclone induced compound flooding in Madagascar: a coupled modeling approach M. Khan et al.
- Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate M. Weaver et al.
- Towards a strategic framework for coastal vulnerability assessment and adaptive management: a review P. M M et al.
- Climate change induced storm surge flood: A systematic review for future research progression D. Ganaie et al.
- Review Paper on Beach Evolution of the Indian Coasts S. Mohanty & R. Kumar
- From decades to years: Rising seas and cyclones amplify Bangladesh’s storm-tide hazards in a warming climate J. Qiu et al.
- Future projections of storm surges and associated coastal inundation along the east coast of India M. PLN & S. Kolukula
- High-Frequency Multi-Satellite Observations of Brahmaputra River Hydrology and Floodplain Dynamics F. Abdullah et al.
15 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Physics-guided non-autoregressive transformer for lightweight cyclone track prediction in the Bay of Bengal A. Faiaz et al.
- Combining uncertain machine learning predictions and numerical simulation results for the extreme value analysis of cyclone-induced wave heights – Application in Guadeloupe J. Rohmer et al.
- Projections of tropical cyclone-driven storm-tide risk to critical infrastructure in the Bay of Bengal C. Blakely et al.
- Modelling and Mapping Rapid-Onset Coastal Flooding: A Systematic Literature Review A. Re et al.
- A statistical method to quantify the tide-surge interaction effects with application in probabilistic prediction of extreme storm tides along the northern coasts of the South China Sea W. Zhuge et al.
- Modeling the extreme sea levels and waves in the northern South China Sea: A synthetic tropical cyclone approach W. Zhuge et al.
- A data-driven framework for enhancing coastal flood resilience in resource-crunched developing nations A. Narendr et al.
- Tropical cyclone induced compound flooding in Madagascar: a coupled modeling approach M. Khan et al.
- Seasonal variations of tropical cyclone genesis and landfall patterns impacting Southeast Asia in a warmer climate M. Weaver et al.
- Towards a strategic framework for coastal vulnerability assessment and adaptive management: a review P. M M et al.
- Climate change induced storm surge flood: A systematic review for future research progression D. Ganaie et al.
- Review Paper on Beach Evolution of the Indian Coasts S. Mohanty & R. Kumar
- From decades to years: Rising seas and cyclones amplify Bangladesh’s storm-tide hazards in a warming climate J. Qiu et al.
- Future projections of storm surges and associated coastal inundation along the east coast of India M. PLN & S. Kolukula
- High-Frequency Multi-Satellite Observations of Brahmaputra River Hydrology and Floodplain Dynamics F. Abdullah et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 02 May 2026
Short summary
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline...
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