Articles | Volume 22, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1519-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
System vulnerability to flood events and risk assessment of railway systems based on national and river basin scales in China
Weihua Zhu
School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
Kai Liu
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
Ming Wang
School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal
University, Beijing 100875, China
Philip J. Ward
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,
1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Elco E. Koks
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,
1081 HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Related authors
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Sadhana Nirandjan, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We use multi-source empirical damage data to generate vulnerability curves and assess the risk of transportation infrastructure to rainfall-induced hazards. The results show large variations in the shape of the vulnerability curves and risk of railway infrastructure in China across the different regions. The usage of multi-source empirical data offer opportunities to perform risk assessments that include spatial detail among regions.
Jinqi Wang, Hao Fang, Kai Liu, Yi Yue, Ming Wang, Bohao Li, and Xiaoyi Miao
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3834, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3834, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
This study assesses the future trends of rainfall-induced landslides across China by integrating a national landslide inventory with high-resolution precipitation data. Our findings reveal increasing susceptibility in China under climate change, highlighting the need for targeted disaster prevention strategies. The results can help improve disaster risk management and policy planning in the context of future climate scenarios.
Wiebke S. Jäger, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Timothy Tiggeloven, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2751–2769, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2751-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Multiple hazards, occurring simultaneously or consecutively, can have more extreme impacts than single hazards. We examined the disaster records in the global emergency events database EM-DAT to better understand this phenomenon. We developed a method to identify such multi-hazards and analysed their reported impacts using statistics. Multi-hazards have accounted for a disproportionate number of the impacts, but there appear to be different archetypal patterns in which the impacts compound.
Lou Brett, Christopher J. White, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Bart van den Hurk, Philip Ward, and Jakob Zscheischler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2591–2611, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2591-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound events, where multiple weather or climate hazards occur together, pose significant risks to both society and the environment. These events, like simultaneous wind and rain, can have more severe impacts than single hazards. Our review of compound event research from 2012–2022 reveals a rise in studies, especially on events that occur concurrently, hot and dry events, and compounding flooding. The review also highlights opportunities for research in the coming years.
Timothy Tiggeloven, Colin Raymond, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Jana Sillmann, Annegret H. Thieken, Sophie L. Buijs, Roxana Ciurean, Emma Cordier, Julia M. Crummy, Lydia Cumiskey, Kelley De Polt, Melanie Duncan, Davide M. Ferrario, Wiebke S. Jäger, Elco E. Koks, Nicole van Maanen, Heather J. Murdock, Jaroslav Mysiak, Sadhana Nirandjan, Benjamin Poschlod, Peter Priesmeier, Nivedita Sairam, Pia-Johanna Schweizer, Tristian R. Stolte, Marie-Luise Zenker, James E. Daniell, Alexander Fekete, Christian M. Geiß, Marc J. C. van den Homberg, Sirkku K. Juhola, Christian Kuhlicke, Karen Lebek, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Stefan Schneiderbauer, Silvia Torresan, Cees J. van Westen, Judith N. Claassen, Bijan Khazai, Virginia Murray, Julius Schlumberger, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2771, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Geoscience Communication (GC).
Short summary
Short summary
Natural hazards like floods, earthquakes, and landslides are often interconnected which may create bigger problems than when they occur alone. We studied expert discussions from an international conference to understand how scientists and policymakers can better prepare for these multi-hazards and use new technologies to protect its communities while contributing to dialogues about future international agreements beyond the Sendai Framework and supporting global sustainability goals.
Nicole van Maanen, Marleen de Ruiter, Wiebke Jäger, Veronica Casartelli, Roxana Ciurean, Noemi Padron, Anne Sophie Daloz, David Geurts, Stefania Gottardo, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Abel López Diez, Jaime Díaz Pacheco, Pedro Dorta Antequera, Tamara Febles Arévalo, Sara García González, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Carmen Alvarez-Albelo, Juan José Diaz-Hernandez, Lin Ma, Letizia Monteleone, Karina Reiter, Tristian Stolte, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Silvia Torresan, Sharon Tatman, David Romero Manrique de Lara, Yeray Hernández González, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3075, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
Disaster risk management faces growing challenges from multiple, changing hazards. Interviews with stakeholders in five European regions reveal that climate change, urban growth, and socio-economic shifts increase vulnerability and exposure. Measures to reduce one risk can worsen others, highlighting the need for better coordination. The study calls for flexible, context-specific strategies that connect scientific risk assessments with real-world decision-making.
Irene Benito, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Sanne Muis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2287–2315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Global flood models are key to the mitigation of coastal flooding impacts, yet they still have limitations when providing actionable insights locally. We present a multiscale framework that couples dynamic water level and flood models and bridges the fully global and local modelling approaches. We apply it to three historical storms. Our findings reveal that the importance of model refinements varies based on the study area characteristics and the storm’s nature.
Huazhi Li, Robert A. Jane, Dirk Eilander, Alejandra R. Enríquez, Toon Haer, and Philip J. Ward
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2993, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2993, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the likelihood of widespread compound flooding along the U.S. coastline. Using a large set of generated plausible events preserving observed dependence, we find that nearly half of compound floods on the West coast affect multiple sites. Such events are rarer on the East coast while most compound events affect single sites on the Gulf coast. Our results underscore the importance of including spatial dependence in compound flood risk assessment and can help in better risk management.
Nicole van Maanen, Joël J.-F. G. De Plaen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Maria Luisa Colmenares, Philip J. Ward, Paolo Scussolini, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2075–2080, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2075-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding coastal flood protection is vital for assessing risks from natural disasters and climate change. However, current global data on coastal flood protection are limited and based on simplified assumptions, leading to potential uncertainties in risk estimates. As a step in this direction, we propose a comprehensive dataset, COASTtal flood PROtection Standards within EUrope (COASTPROS-EU), which compiles coastal flood protection standards in Europe.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Joshua Green, Ivan D. Haigh, Niall Quinn, Jeff Neal, Thomas Wahl, Melissa Wood, Dirk Eilander, Marleen de Ruiter, Philip Ward, and Paula Camus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 747–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-747-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Compound flooding, involving the combination or successive occurrence of two or more flood drivers, can amplify flood impacts in coastal/estuarine regions. This paper reviews the practices, trends, methodologies, applications, and findings of coastal compound flooding literature at regional to global scales. We explore the types of compound flood events, their mechanistic processes, and the range of terminology. Lastly, this review highlights knowledge gaps and implications for future practices.
Sadhana Nirandjan, Elco E. Koks, Mengqi Ye, Raghav Pant, Kees C. H. Van Ginkel, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4341–4368, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4341-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Critical infrastructures (CIs) are exposed to natural hazards, which may result in significant damage and burden society. Vulnerability is a key determinant for reducing these risks, yet crucial information is scattered in the literature. Our study reviews over 1510 fragility and vulnerability curves for CI assets, creating a unique publicly available physical vulnerability database that can be directly used for hazard risk assessments, including floods, earthquakes, windstorms, and landslides.
Christopher J. White, Mohammed Sarfaraz Gani Adnan, Marcello Arosio, Stephanie Buller, YoungHwa Cha, Roxana Ciurean, Julia M. Crummy, Melanie Duncan, Joel Gill, Claire Kennedy, Elisa Nobile, Lara Smale, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-178, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Indicators contain observable and measurable characteristics to understand the state of a concept or phenomenon and/or monitor it over time. There have been limited efforts to understand how indicators are being used in multi-hazard and multi-risk contexts. We find most of existing indicators do not include the interactions between hazards or risks. We propose 12 recommendations to enable the development and uptake of multi-hazard and multi-risk indicators.
Eric Mortensen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Toon Haer, Bas van Bemmel, Dewi Le Bars, Sanne Muis, Dirk Eilander, Frederiek Sperna Weiland, Arno Bouwman, Willem Ligtvoet, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1381–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1381-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Current levels of coastal flood risk are projected to increase in coming decades due to various reasons, e.g. sea-level rise, land subsidence, and coastal urbanization: action is needed to minimize this future risk. We evaluate dykes and coastal levees, foreshore vegetation, zoning restrictions, and dry-proofing on a global scale to estimate what levels of risk reductions are possible. We demonstrate that there are several potential adaptation pathways forward for certain areas of the world.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Frederiek C. Sperna Weiland, Willem Ligtvoet, Arno Bouwman, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2251–2272, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2251-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework for assessing compound flood risk using hydrodynamic, impact, and statistical modeling. A pilot in Mozambique shows the importance of accounting for compound events in risk assessments. We also show how the framework can be used to assess the effectiveness of different risk reduction measures. As the framework is based on global datasets and is largely automated, it can easily be applied in other areas for first-order assessments of compound flood risk.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, Svetlana Agafonova, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Cavus, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Daliakopoulos, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Natalia Frolova, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego A. Guzmán, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ionita, Maxim Kharlamov, Dao Nguyen Khoi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado-Casimiro, Hong-Yi Li, Maria Carmen LLasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejia, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo-Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Nguyen Hong Quan, Pere Quintana-Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, Marjolein H. J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini, and Philip J. Ward
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2009–2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management. We present a dataset containing data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The dataset enables comparative analyses and allows detailed context-specific assessments. Additionally, it supports the testing of socio-hydrological models.
Di Wang, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, and Jun Xie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1423, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1409-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The short–medium-term intervention effect on the post-earthquake area was analysed by simulations in different scenarios. The sediment transport patterns varied in different sub-regions, and the relative effectiveness in different scenarios changed over time with a general downward trend, where the steady stage implicated the scenario with more facilities performing better in controlling sediment output. Therefore, the simulation methods could support optimal rehabilitation strategies.
Dirk Eilander, Anaïs Couasnon, Tim Leijnse, Hiroaki Ikeuchi, Dai Yamazaki, Sanne Muis, Job Dullaart, Arjen Haag, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 823–846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-823-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In coastal deltas, flooding can occur from interactions between coastal, riverine, and pluvial drivers, so-called compound flooding. Global models however ignore these interactions. We present a framework for automated and reproducible compound flood modeling anywhere globally and validate it for two historical events in Mozambique with good results. The analysis reveals differences in compound flood dynamics between both events related to the magnitude of and time lag between drivers.
Jianxin Zhang, Kai Liu, and Ming Wang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 521–540, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-521-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-521-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study successfully extracted global flood days based on gravity satellite and precipitation data between 60° S and 60° N from 1 April 2002 to 31 August 2016. Our flood days data performed well compared with current available observations. This provides an important data foundation for analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of large-scale floods and exploring the impact of ocean–atmosphere oscillations on floods in different regions.
Paolo Scussolini, Job Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Alessio Rovere, Pepijn Bakker, Dim Coumou, Hans Renssen, Philip J. Ward, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Clim. Past, 19, 141–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-141-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstruct sea level extremes due to storm surges in a past warmer climate. We employ a novel combination of paleoclimate modeling and global ocean hydrodynamic modeling. We find that during the Last Interglacial, about 127 000 years ago, seasonal sea level extremes were indeed significantly different – higher or lower – on long stretches of the global coast. These changes are associated with different patterns of atmospheric storminess linked with meridional shifts in wind bands.
Elco E. Koks, Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Margreet J. E. van Marle, and Anne Lemnitzer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3831–3838, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the impacts to critical infrastructure and how recovery has progressed after the July 2021 flood event in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results show that Germany and Belgium were particularly affected, with many infrastructure assets severely damaged or completely destroyed. This study helps to better understand how infrastructure can be affected by flooding and can be used for validation purposes for future studies.
Qian He, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, Kaiwen Li, and Ziyu Jiang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 3273–3292, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3273-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3273-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We used three machine learning models and determined that Gaussian process regression (GPR) is best suited to the interpolation of air temperature data for China. The GPR-derived results were compared with that of traditional interpolation techniques and existing data sets and it was found that the accuracy of the GPR-derived data was better. Finally, we generated a gridded monthly air temperature data set with 1 km resolution and high accuracy for China (1951–2020) using the GPR model.
Philip J. Ward, James Daniell, Melanie Duncan, Anna Dunne, Cédric Hananel, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Annegien Tijssen, Silvia Torresan, Roxana Ciurean, Joel C. Gill, Jana Sillmann, Anaïs Couasnon, Elco Koks, Noemi Padrón-Fumero, Sharon Tatman, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Adewole Adesiyun, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Alexander Alabaster, Bernard Bulder, Carlos Campillo Torres, Andrea Critto, Raúl Hernández-Martín, Marta Machado, Jaroslav Mysiak, Rene Orth, Irene Palomino Antolín, Eva-Cristina Petrescu, Markus Reichstein, Timothy Tiggeloven, Anne F. Van Loon, Hung Vuong Pham, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1487–1497, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1487-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The majority of natural-hazard risk research focuses on single hazards (a flood, a drought, a volcanic eruption, an earthquake, etc.). In the international research and policy community it is recognised that risk management could benefit from a more systemic approach. In this perspective paper, we argue for an approach that addresses multi-hazard, multi-risk management through the lens of sustainability challenges that cut across sectors, regions, and hazards.
Weihua Zhu, Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Sadhana Nirandjan, and Elco Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-277, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We use multi-source empirical damage data to generate vulnerability curves and assess the risk of transportation infrastructure to rainfall-induced hazards. The results show large variations in the shape of the vulnerability curves and risk of railway infrastructure in China across the different regions. The usage of multi-source empirical data offer opportunities to perform risk assessments that include spatial detail among regions.
Dirk Eilander, Willem van Verseveld, Dai Yamazaki, Albrecht Weerts, Hessel C. Winsemius, and Philip J. Ward
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 5287–5313, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-5287-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Digital elevation models and derived flow directions are crucial to distributed hydrological modeling. As the spatial resolution of models is typically coarser than these data, we need methods to upscale flow direction data while preserving the river structure. We propose the Iterative Hydrography Upscaling (IHU) method and show it outperforms other often-applied methods. We publish the multi-resolution MERIT Hydro IHU hydrography dataset and the algorithm as part of the pyflwdir Python package.
Qian He, Ming Wang, Kai Liu, Kaiwen Li, and Ziyu Jiang
Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-267, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-267, 2021
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We used three machine learning models and determined that Gaussian process regression (GPR) is best suited to interpolation of air temperature data for China. The GPR-derived results were compared with that of traditional interpolation techniques and existing datasets and it was found that the accuracy of the GPR-derived data was better. Finally, we generated a gridded monthly air temperature dataset with 1 km resolution and high accuracy for China (1951–2020) using the GPR model.
Marleen Carolijn de Ruiter, Anaïs Couasnon, and Philip James Ward
Geosci. Commun., 4, 383–397, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gc-4-383-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Many countries can get hit by different hazards, such as earthquakes and floods. Generally, measures and policies are aimed at decreasing the potential damages of one particular hazard type despite their potential of having unwanted effects on other hazard types. We designed a serious game that helps professionals to improve their understanding of these potential negative effects of measures and policies that reduce the impacts of disasters across many different hazard types.
Kees C. H. van Ginkel, Francesco Dottori, Lorenzo Alfieri, Luc Feyen, and Elco E. Koks
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1011–1027, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1011-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a state-of-the-art approach to assess flood damage for each unique road segment in Europe. We find a mean total flood risk of EUR 230 million per year for all individual road segments combined. We identify flood hotspots in the Alps, along the Sava River, and on the Scandinavian Peninsula. To achieve this, we propose a new set of damage curves for roads and challenge the community to validate and improve these. Analysis of network effects can be easily added to our analysis.
Jerom P. M. Aerts, Steffi Uhlemann-Elmer, Dirk Eilander, and Philip J. Ward
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3245–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3245-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We compare and analyse flood hazard maps from eight global flood models that represent the current state of the global flood modelling community. We apply our comparison to China as a case study, and for the first time, we include industry models, pluvial flooding, and flood protection standards. We find substantial variability between the flood hazard maps in the modelled inundated area and exposed gross domestic product (GDP) across multiple return periods and in expected annual exposed GDP.
Cited articles
Alfieri, L., Burek, P., Dutra, E., Krzeminski, B., Muraro, D., Thielen, J., and Pappenberger, F.: GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1161–1175, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1161-2013, 2013.
Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N.: The impacts of climate change on river
flood risk at the global scale, Clim. Change, 134, 387–401,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5, 2016.
Baker, J. W.: An introduction to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis(PSHA), White Paper, Version 1.3, 2008, Stanford University, https://www.jackwbaker.com/Publications/Baker_(2008)_Intro_to_PSHA_v1_3.pdf (last access: 19 May 2020), 2008.
Becker, A. and Grünewald, U.: Flood Risk in Central Europe, Science, 300, 1099, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1083624, 2003.
Beek, L. P. H. van and Bierkens, M. F. P.: The Global Hydrological Model PCR-GLOBWB: Conceptualization, Parameterization and Verification, Report Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands,
http://vanbeek.geo.uu.nl/suppinfo/vanbeekbierkens2009.pdf (last access: 19 May 2020), 2008.
Beek, L. P. H. van, Wada, Y., and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Global monthly water stress: 1. Water balance and water availability, Water Resour. Res., 47, W07517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010WR009791, 2011.
Benn, J.: Railway bridge failure during flooding in the UK and Ireland,
Proc. Inst. Civ. Eng. Eng., 166, 163–170, 2013.
Chang, H., Lafrenz, M., Jung, I. W., Figliozzi, M., Platman, D., and
Pederson, C.: Potential impacts of climate change on Flood-Induced Travel
Disruptions: A Case Study of Portland, Oregon, USA, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr.,
100, 938–952, https://doi.org/10.1080/00045608.2010.497110, 2010.
Chinese Railway Service Website: Train timetable data, https://www.12306.cn/index/, last access: 19 May 2020.
CRPH: High-speed railway emergency response plan, edited by: China railway Publishing House, Beijing,
http://www.nra.gov.cn/xxgkml/xxgk/xxgkml/201908/P020190830510214110215.pdf (last access: 19 May 2020), 2012.
CRPH: Code for design of railway earth structure, edited by China railway Publishing House, Beijing,
https://max.book118.com/html/2019/0930/6035141105002111.shtm (last access: 19 May 2020), 2016.
de Moel, H. and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Effect of uncertainty in land use,
damage models and inundation depth on flood damage estimates, Nat. Hazards,
58, 407–425, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-010-9675-6, 2011.
de Moel, H., Asselman, N. E. M., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of coastal flood damage estimates in the west of the Netherlands, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 1045–1058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-1045-2012, 2012.
Dottori, F., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Alfieri, L., Hirpa, F. A., and Feyen,
L.: Development and evaluation of a framework for global flood hazard
mapping, Adv. Water Resour., 94, 87–102,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.05.002, 2016.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2001.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2002.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2003.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2004.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook : China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing , ISSN 1009-6957, 2005.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2006.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook : China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2007.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2008.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2009.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2010.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2011.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2012.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2013.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2014.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2015.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2016.
Editorial Board of China Railway Yearbook: China railway yearbook, China Railway Publishing House, Beijing, ISSN 1009-6957, 2017.
Espinet, X., Rozenberg, J., Ogita, K. S. R. S., Singh Rao, K., and Ogita, S.: Piloting the Use of Network Analysis and Decision-Making under Uncertainty in Transport Operations: Preparation and Appraisal of a Rural Roads Project in Mozambique under Changing Flood Risk and Other Deep Uncertainties, Policy Research Working Paper, No. 8490, World Bank, Washington, DC, © World Bank, https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29943 (last access: 19 May 2020), 2018.
Fraiture, C.: Integrated water and food analysis at the global and basin level. An application of WATERSIM, Water Resour. Manag., 21, 185–198, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-5591-1-12, 2007.
GFDRR: Tbilisi disaster needs assessment 2015, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/tbilisi_disaster_needs_assessment_2015.pdf (last access: 19 May 2020), 2015.
Gil, J. and Steinbach, P.: From flood risk to indirect flood impact:
Evaluation of street network performance for effective management, response
and repair, WIT Trans. Ecol. Environ., 118, 335–344,
https://doi.org/10.2495/FRIAR080321, 2008.
Gong, M., Wang, Y., Wang, S., and Liu, W.: Enhancing robustness of
interdependent network under recovery based on a two-layer-protection
strategy, Sci. Rep., 7, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-13063-2, 2017.
Haimes, Y. Y.: On the complex definition of risk: A systems-based approach,
Risk Anal., 29, 1647–1654, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01310.x, 2009.
Hirabayashi, Y., Mahendran, R., Koirala, S., Konoshima, L., Yamazaki, D.,
Watanabe, S., Kim, H., and Kanae, S.: Global flood risk under climate change,
Nat. Clim. Chang., 3, 816–821, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1911, 2013.
Hong, L., Ouyang, M., Peeta, S., He, X., and Yan, Y.: Vulnerability
assessment and mitigation for the Chinese railway system under floods,
Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf., 137, 58–68,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2014.12.013, 2015.
Horacio, J., Ollero, A., Noguera, I., and Fernández-Pasquier, V.:
Flooding, channel dynamics and transverse infrastructure: a challenge for
Middle Ebro river management, J. Maps, 15, 310–319,
https://doi.org/10.1080/17445647.2019.1592719, 2019.
Janic, M. and Vleugel, J.: Estimating potential reductions in externalities
from rail–road substitution in Trans-European freight transport corridors,
Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ., 17, 154–160,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2011.09.015, 2012.
Jongman, B., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Feyen, L., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Mechler,
R., Botzen, W. J. W., Bouwer, L. M., Pflug, G., Rojas, R., and Ward, P. J.:
Increasing stress on disaster-risk finance due to large floods, Nat. Clim.
Chang., 4, 264–268, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2124, 2014.
Kellermann, P., Schöbel, A., Kundela, G., and Thieken, A. H.: Estimating flood damage to railway infrastructure – the case study of the March River flood in 2006 at the Austrian Northern Railway, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2485–2496, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2485-2015, 2015.
Kellermann, P., Schönberger, C., and Thieken, A. H.: Large-scale application of the flood damage model RAilway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2357–2371, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2357-2016, 2016.
Koks, E. E. and Haer, T.: A high-resolution wind damage model for Europe,
Sci. Rep., 10, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-63580-w, 2020.
Koks, E. E., Rozenberg, J., Zorn, C., Tariverdi, M., Vousdoukas, M., Fraser,
S. A., Hall, J. W., and Hallegatte, S.: A global multi-hazard risk analysis
of road and railway infrastructure assets, Nat. Commun., 10, 1–11,
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10442-3, 2019.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., Pińskwar, I., and Brakenridge, R.: Large floods in Europe, 1985–2009, Int. Assoc. Sci. Hydrol. Bull., 58, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2012.745082, 2013.
Lamb, R., Garside, P., Pant, R., and Hall, J. W.: A Probabilistic Model of
the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During
Floods, Risk Anal., 39, 2457–2478, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.13370, 2019.
Lavers, D. A., Allan, R. P., Villarini, G., Lloydhughes, B., Brayshaw, D. J., and Wade, A. J.: Future changes in atmospheric rivers and their implications
for winter flooding in Britain, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 34010, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034010, 2013.
Liu, K., Wang, M., Cao, Y., Zhu, W., Wu, J., and Yan, X.: A comprehensive
risk analysis of transportation networks affected by rainfall-Induced
multihazards, Risk Anal., 38, 1618–1633, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12968, 2018a.
Liu, K., Wang, M., Cao, Y., Zhu, W., and Yang, G.: Susceptibility of existing
and planned Chinese railway system subjected to rainfall-induced
multi-hazards, Transp. Res. Part A Policy Pract., 117, 214–226, 2018b.
Lyu, H. M., Xu, Y. S., Cheng, W. C., and Arulrajah, A.: Flooding hazards
across Southern China and prospective sustainability measures, Sustain.,
10, 1–18, https://doi.org/10.3390/su10051682, 2018.
Marsden, M. J.: Quadratic spline interpolation, Bull. Am. Math. Soc., 80,
903–906, https://doi.org/10.1090/S0002-9904-1974-13566-4, 1974.
Meshram, S. G., Powar, P. L., and Meshram, C.: Comparison of cubic,
quadratic, and quintic splines for soil erosion modeling, Appl. Water Sci.,
8, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-018-0807-6, 2018.
Metropolis, N.: The beginning of the Monte Carlo method, Los Alamos Science, (1987 Special Issue dedicated to Stanislaw Ulam), 1, 125–130, https://sgp.fas.org/othergov/doe/lanl/pubs/00326866.pdf (last access: 19 May 2020), 1987.
Moran, A. P., Thieken, A. H., Schöbel, A., and Rachoy, C.: Documentation of Flood Damage on Railway Infrastructure, in: Data
and Mobility, edited by: Düh, J., Hufnagl, H., Juritsch, E., Pfliegl, R., Schimany, H.-K., and Schönegger, H., AISC 81, Heidelberg, 61–70, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-15503-1_6, 2010.
Newman, M. E.: Networks An Introduction, Oxford University
Press, United States, https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199206650.001.0001, 2010.
Nones, M. and Pescaroli, G.: Implications of cascading effects for the EU
Floods Directive, Int. J. River Basin Manag., 14, 195–204,
https://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2016.1149074, 2016.
OpenStreetMap: Geographic railway system, https://www.openstreetmap.org/, last access: 19 May 2020.
Pregnolato, M., Ford, A., Wilkinson, S. M., and Dawson, R. J.: The impact of
flooding on road transport: A depth-disruption function, Transp. Res. Part D
Transp. Environ., 55, 67–81, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.06.020, 2017.
Prudhomme, C. and Genevier, M.: Can atmospheric circulation be linked to
flooding in Europe?, Hydrol. Process., 25, 1180–1190,
https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.7879, 2011.
Resource and Environment Science and Data Center: River basin map, http://www.resdc.cn/, last access: 19 May 2020.
Reed, D. W.: A review of British railway bridge flood failures, Hydrol. Sci. Pract., 21st Century, I, 210–216, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Duncan_Reed/publication/267254265_A_review_of_British_railway_bridge_flood_failures/links/5512efd60cf240060b2df24c.pdf (last access: 19 May 2020), 2004.
Rezvani, Z., Jansson, J., and Bodin, J.: Advances in consumer electric
vehicle adoption research: A review and research agenda, Transp. Res. Part D
Transp. Environ., 34, 122–136, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2014.10.010, 2015.
Rodrigue, J. P., Comtois, C., and Slack, B.: The geography of transport systems 4th edn., Taylor & Francis, https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315618159, 2016.
Rojas, R., Feyen, L., and Watkiss, P.: Climate change and river floods in the
European Union: Socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of
adaptation, Glob. Environ. Chang., 23, 1737–1751,
https://doi.org/10.1016/J.GLOENVCHA.2013.08.006, 2013.
Sampson, C. C., Smith, A. M., Bates, P. D., Neal, J. C., Alfieri, L., and Freer, J. E.: A high-resolution global flood hazard model, Water Resour. Res., 51, 7785–7789, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015WR016954, 2015.
Samuels, P. and Gouldby, B.: Language of Risk – Project definitions, 2nd ed., FLOODsite, Wallingford, UK, https://repository.tudelft.nl/islandora/object/uuid:268e1ef4-7b45-4b4d-8504-13d2f252e4d9?collection=research (last access: 19 May 2020), 2009.
Sene, K.: Flood warning, forecasting and emergency response, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77853-0, 2008.
Singh, P., Sinha, V. S. P., Vijhani, A., and Pahuja, N.: Vulnerability
assessment of urban road network from urban flood, Int. J. Disaster Risk
Reduct., 28, 237–250, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.03.017, 2018.
Speight, L. J., Hall, J. W., and Kilsby, C. G.: A multi-scale framework for
flood risk analysis at spatially distributed locations, J. Flood Risk
Manag., 10, 124–137, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12175, 2017.
Sun, W. and Yuan, Y.-X.: Optimization theory and methods:
nonlinear programming, edited by: Pardalos, P. M., Springer Science & Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA, ISBN 978-0-387-24975-9, 2006.
UNISDR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction,
Revealing Risk, Redefining Development, https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/home/foreword.html (last access: 19 May 2020), 2011.
Vandebogert, K.: Method of quadratic interpolation, 1–22, https://people.math.sc.edu/kellerlv/Quadratic_Interpolation.pdf (last access: 19 May 2020), 2017.
Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Weiland, F. S., Bouwman, A., Van Beek, R., Bierkens, M. F. P., Ligtvoet, W., and Winsemius, H. C.: Assessing flood risk at the global scale: Model setup, results, and sensitivity, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 044019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019, 2013.
Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Bates, P. D., Botzen, W. J.
W., DIaz Loaiza, A., Hallegatte, S., Kind, J. M., Kwadijk, J., Scussolini,
P., and Winsemius, H. C.: A global framework for future costs and benefits of
river-flood protection in urban areas, Nat. Clim. Chang., 7, 642–646,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3350, 2017.
Wei, S., Yuan, J., Qiu, Y., Luan, X., Han, S., Zhou, W., and Xu, C.:
Exploring the potential of open big data from ticketing websites to
characterize travel patterns within the Chinese high-speed rail system, PLoS
One, 12, 1–13, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0178023, 2017.
Winsemius, H. C., Van Beek, L. P. H., Jongman, B., Ward, P. J., and Bouwman, A.: A framework for global river flood risk assessments, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1871–1892, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013, 2013.
Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Van Beek, L. P. H., Bierkens, M. F.
P., Bouwman, A., Jongman, B., Kwadijk, J. C. J., Ligtvoet, W., Lucas, P. L.,
Van Vuuren, D. P., and Ward, P. J.: Global drivers of future river flood
risk, Nat. Clim. Chang., 6, 381–385, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2893, 2016.
World Bank: GLOFRIS global fluvial flood hazard, https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/0038584, last access: 19 May 2020.
Wu, Q.: Risk analysis of seismic hazard correlation between nuclear power plants, in Risk Analysis Based on Data and Crisis Response Beyond Knowledge, edited by: Huang, C. and Nivolianitou, Z. S., 550–556, CRC Press, ISBN 9780429286346, 2019.
Yang, D., Pan, K., and Wang, S.: On service network improvement for shipping
lines under the one belt one road initiative of China, Transp. Res. Part E
Logist. Transp. Rev., 117, 82–95,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tre.2017.07.003, 2018.
Zhu, W., Liu, K., Wang, M., and Koks, E. E.: Seismic Risk Assessment of the
Railway Network of China's Mainland, Int. J. Disaster Risk Sci., 11,
452–465, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-020-00292-9, 2020.
Short summary
We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese railway system to floods. To do so, we develop a method for generating flood events at both the national and river basin scale. Results show flood system vulnerability and risk of the railway system are spatially heterogeneous. The event-based approach shows how we can identify critical hotspots, taking the first steps in developing climate-resilient infrastructure.
We present a simulation framework to analyse the system vulnerability and risk of the Chinese...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint