Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2075–2091, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2075–2091, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2075-2021

Research article 09 Jul 2021

Research article | 09 Jul 2021

A Bayesian network approach to modelling rip-current drownings and shore-break wave injuries

Elias de Korte et al.

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Cited articles

Austin, M., Scott, T. M., Brown, J. W., Brown, J. A., MacMahan, J. H., Masselink, G., and Russell, P.: Temporal observations of rip current circulation on a macro-tidal beach, Cont. Shelf. Res., 30, 1149–1165, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2010.03.005, 2010. a
Austin, M., Scott, T. M., Russell, P. E., and Masselink, G.: Rip Current Prediction: Development, Validation and Evaluation of an Operational Tool, J. Coast. Res., 29, 283–300, https://doi.org/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-12-00093.1, 2013. a
Balsillie, J. H.: Redefinition of shore-breaker classification as a numerical continuum and a design shore-breaker, J. Coast. Res., 1, 247–254, 1985. a, b
Battjes, J. A.: Surf similarity, in: 14th Int. Conf. on Coastal Eng., 466–480, ASCE, New York, 1974. a, b
Bayes, T.: An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances, Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond., 53, 370–418, 1763. a
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We use a statistical model to address the controls and interactions of environmental (wave, tide, weather, beach morphology) data on surf zone injuries along a sandy coast where shore-break and rip-current hazards co-exist. Although fair but limited predictive life-risk skill is found, the approach provides new insight into the environmental controls, their interactions and their respective contribution to hazard and exposure, with implications for the development of public education messaging.
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