Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
31 Mar 2021
Research article |
| 31 Mar 2021
| 31 Mar 2021
The heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: a meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observations
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Marc Mandement
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
François Bouttier
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Judith Eeckman
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
IMFT, Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Alexane Lovat
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Observing Systems Division, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Olivier Nuissier
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Olivier Laurantin
Observing Systems Division, Météo-France, Toulouse, France
Related authors
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Vincent Forcadell, Clotilde Augros, Olivier Caumont, Kévin Dedieu, Maxandre Ouradou, Cloé David, Jordi Figueras i Ventura, Olivier Laurantin, and Hassan Al-Sakka
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6707–6734, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates the potential of enhancing severe-hail detection through the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to dual-polarization radar data. It is shown that current methods can be calibrated to significantly enhance their performance for severe-hail detection. This study establishes the foundation for the solution of a more complex problem: the estimation of the maximum size of hailstones on the ground using deep learning applied to radar data.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Frédéric Burnet, Julien Delanoë, Susana Jorquera, Yann Seity, and Vinciane Unger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5415–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5415-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud radars and microwave radiometers offer the potential to improve fog forecasts when assimilated into a high-resolution model. As this process can be complex, a retrieval of model variables is sometimes made as a first step. In this work, results from a 1D-Var algorithm for the retrieval of temperature, humidity and cloud liquid water content are presented. The algorithm is applied first to a synthetic dataset and then to a dataset of real measurements from a recent field campaign.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 795–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
On 14–15 October 2018, in the Aude department (France), a heavy-precipitation event produced up to about 300 mm of rain in 11 h. Simulations carried out show that the former Hurricane Leslie, while involved, was not the first supplier of moisture over the entire event. The location of the highest rainfall was primarily driven by the location of a quasi-stationary front and secondarily by the location of precipitation bands downwind of mountains bordering the Mediterranean Sea.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Benoît Vié, Julien Delanoë, Jean-Charles Dupont, and Mary Borderies
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4929–4946, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents work towards making retrievals on the liquid water content in fog and low clouds. Future retrievals will rely on a radar simulator and high-resolution forecast. In this work, real observations are used to assess the errors associated with the simulator and forecast. A selection method to reduce errors associated with the forecast is proposed. It is concluded that the distribution of errors matches the requirements for future retrievals.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 463–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation impact of four observation data sets on forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal total delay data set with information on humidity has the largest impact on analyses and forecasts, representing an evenly spread and frequent data set for each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality, but this impact is not statistically significant.
Felix Erdmann, Eric Defer, Olivier Caumont, Richard J. Blakeslee, Stéphane Pédeboy, and Sylvain Coquillat
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 853–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article compares lightning observations from an optical sensor onboard the International Space Station to two ground-based networks using different radio frequencies. The location and timing of coincident flashes agree well for the three instruments. Differences exist for the detected number of flashes and the characteristics. Small flashes in particular are not always detected by all three instruments. About half of the flashes at altitudes below 10 km are not seen by the satellite sensor.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The number of connected personal weather stations has dramatically increased in the last years. These weather stations produce a high number of data that need a thorough quality control to unleash their potential. A novel quality-control algorithm now allows us to take full advantage of these data and observe thunderstorms with fine-scale details that cannot be caught by standard networks. These results pave the way for tremendous advances in both understanding and forecasting thunderstorms.
Tony Le Bastard, Olivier Caumont, Nicolas Gaussiat, and Fatima Karbou
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5669–5684, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5669-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5669-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of surface rainfall from radars becomes less effective at long ranges or in mountainous regions where the radar beam is far from the ground. The method proposed in this paper investigates how vertical profiles simulated from high-resolution model can be used to predict the evolution of the precipitation below the radar beam. Our results show that this novel method leads to better results than the current operational methods that either use climatological or idealised profiles.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, Olivier Caumont, Alexis Doerenbecher, Eric Wattrelot, Patrick Moll, Hervé Bénichou, Dominique Puech, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Paolo Di Girolamo, Evelyne Richard, and Frédérique Saïd
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2657–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The AROME-WMED (western Mediterranean) model is a dedicated version of the mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction AROME-France model that ran in real time during the first special observation period of HyMeX. Two reanalyses were performed after the campaign. This paper depicts the main differences between the real-time version and the benefits brought by both HyMeX reanalyses. The second reanalysis is found to be closer to observations than the previous AROME-WMED analyses.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area is investigated. The 1D + 3DVar assimilation method has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity in the Météo-France kilometre-scale NWP model AROME. The results suggest that the joint assimilation of W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind profiles lead to a slight improvement of moisture analyses and rainfall precipitation forecasts.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, and Nadia Fourrié
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 821–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The study reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP model on predicting heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area. The positive impact of the assimilation of such data is particularly evidenced for a heavy precipitation event and results are slightly encouraging over a 45-day period. In addition, the impact of the length of the assimilation window in a 3h-3DVar assimilation system is investigated.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Francesco De Angelis, Domenico Cimini, Ulrich Löhnert, Olivier Caumont, Alexander Haefele, Bernhard Pospichal, Pauline Martinet, Francisco Navas-Guzmán, Henk Klein-Baltink, Jean-Charles Dupont, and James Hocking
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3947–3961, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3947-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Modern data assimilation systems require knowledge of the typical differences between observations and model background (O–B). This work illustrates a 1-year O–B analysis for ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) observations in clear-sky conditions for a prototype network of six MWRs in Europe. Observations are MWR brightness temperatures (TB). Background profiles extracted from the output of a convective-scale model are used to simulate TB through the radiative transfer model RTTOV-gb.
A. Hally, O. Caumont, L. Garrote, E. Richard, A. Weerts, F. Delogu, E. Fiori, N. Rebora, A. Parodi, A. Mihalović, M. Ivković, L. Dekić, W. van Verseveld, O. Nuissier, V. Ducrocq, D. D'Agostino, A. Galizia, E. Danovaro, and A. Clematis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 537–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, 2015
Cloé David, Clotilde Augros, Benoît Vié, François Bouttier, and Tony Le Bastard
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-685, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-685, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Simulations of storm characteristics and associated radar signatures were improved, especially under the freezing level, using an advanced cloud scheme. Discrepancies between observations and forecasts at and above the melting layer highlighted issues in both the radar forward operator and the microphysics. To overcome part of these issues, different parametrizations of the operator were suggested. This work aligns with the future integration of polarimetric data into assimilation systems.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Vincent Forcadell, Clotilde Augros, Olivier Caumont, Kévin Dedieu, Maxandre Ouradou, Cloé David, Jordi Figueras i Ventura, Olivier Laurantin, and Hassan Al-Sakka
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6707–6734, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study demonstrates the potential of enhancing severe-hail detection through the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to dual-polarization radar data. It is shown that current methods can be calibrated to significantly enhance their performance for severe-hail detection. This study establishes the foundation for the solution of a more complex problem: the estimation of the maximum size of hailstones on the ground using deep learning applied to radar data.
Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, and Olivier Nuissier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-208, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in weather forecasts and predictability, which has so far been considered weak. By focusing on the persistence of weather scenarios over successive forecasts, we found that it significantly affects the reliability of forecasts.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Judith Eeckman, Brian De Grenus, Floreana Miesen, James Thornton, Philip Brunner, and Nadav Peleg
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1832, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1832, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The fate of liquid water from melting snow in winter and spring is difficult to understand in the mountains. This work uses uncommon methods to accurately track the dynamics of snowmelt and infiltration at different depths in the ground and at different altitudes. The results show that melting snow quickly infiltrates into the upper layers of the soil but is also quickly transferred into the surface layer of the soil along the slopes towards the river.
Gabriel Colas, Valéry Masson, François Bouttier, Ludovic Bouilloud, Laura Pavan, and Virve Karsisto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1039, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1039, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Snow-covered or icy roads increase the risk of accidents for drivers, pedestrians, and cyclists. To avoid these slippery conditions, road winter maintenance must plan their operations in advance using weather forecasts. We improved the Town Energy Balance (TEB) urban climate model to simulate the dangerous road slippery conditions in cities or in remote areas. Evaluations showed that the results are promising for using TEB to inform road winter maintenance decisions.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 907–927, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-907-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Improvements in numerical weather prediction models make it possible to warn of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated. It leads to a significant improvement in the modelling of the surface pressure field up to 9 h ahead. Their incorporation improves the location and intensity of the heavy precipitation event that occurred in the South of France in September 2021.
Guillaume Evin, Matthieu Le Lay, Catherine Fouchier, David Penot, Francois Colleoni, Alexandre Mas, Pierre-André Garambois, and Olivier Laurantin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 261–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological modelling of mountainous catchments is challenging for many reasons, the main one being the temporal and spatial representation of precipitation forcings. This study presents an evaluation of the hydrological modelling of 55 small mountainous catchments of the northern French Alps, focusing on the influence of the type of precipitation reanalyses used as inputs. These evaluations emphasize the added value of radar measurements, in particular for the reproduction of flood events.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Sylvie Malardel, Aurore Voldoire, and César Sauvage
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 117–141, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-117-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In numerical models, the turbulent exchanges of heat and momentum at the air–sea interface are not represented explicitly but with parameterisations depending on the surface parameters. A new parameterisation of turbulent fluxes (WASP) has been implemented in the surface model SURFEX v8.1 and validated on four case studies. It combines a close fit to observations including cyclonic winds, a dependency on the wave growth rate, and the possibility of being used in atmosphere–wave coupled models.
Juliette Godet, Olivier Payrastre, Pierre Javelle, and François Bouttier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3355–3377, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3355-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This article results from a master's research project which was part of a natural hazards programme developed by the French Ministry of Ecological Transition. The objective of this work was to investigate a possible way to improve the operational flash flood warning service by adding rainfall forecasts upstream of the forecasting chain. The results showed that the tested forecast product, which is new and experimental, has a real added value compared to other classical forecast products.
Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, and Eric Defer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2821–2840, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2821-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This work develops a novel lightning data assimilation (LDA) technique to make use of Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) Lightning Imager (LI) data in a regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction model. The approach combines statistical Bayesian and 3-dimensional variational methods. Our LDA can promote missing convection and suppress spurious convection in the initial state of the model, and it has similar skill to the operational radar data assimilation for rainfall forecasts.
Maryse Charpentier-Noyer, Daniela Peredo, Axelle Fleury, Hugo Marchal, François Bouttier, Eric Gaume, Pierre Nicolle, Olivier Payrastre, and Maria-Helena Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2001–2029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2001-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a methodological framework designed for event-based evaluation in the context of an intense flash-flood event. The evaluation adopts the point of view of end users, with a focus on the anticipation of exceedances of discharge thresholds. With a study of rainfall forecasts, a discharge evaluation and a detailed look at the forecast hydrographs, the evaluation framework should help in drawing robust conclusions about the usefulness of new rainfall ensemble forecasts.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Frédéric Burnet, Julien Delanoë, Susana Jorquera, Yann Seity, and Vinciane Unger
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5415–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5415-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5415-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cloud radars and microwave radiometers offer the potential to improve fog forecasts when assimilated into a high-resolution model. As this process can be complex, a retrieval of model variables is sometimes made as a first step. In this work, results from a 1D-Var algorithm for the retrieval of temperature, humidity and cloud liquid water content are presented. The algorithm is applied first to a synthetic dataset and then to a dataset of real measurements from a recent field campaign.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2943–2962, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2943-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 2697–2714, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-2697-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The hydrometeorological skills of two new nowcasting systems for forecasting Mediterranean intense rainfall events and floods are investigated. The results reveal that up to 75 or 90 min of forecast the performance of the nowcasting system blending numerical weather prediction and extrapolation of radar estimation is higher than the numerical weather model. For lead times up to 3 h the skills are equivalent in general. Using these nowcasting systems for flash flood forecasting is also promising.
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Samira Khodayar, Silvio Davolio, Paolo Di Girolamo, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Emmanouil Flaounas, Nadia Fourrie, Keun-Ok Lee, Didier Ricard, Benoit Vie, Francois Bouttier, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, and Veronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 17051–17078, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-17051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation (HP) constitutes a major meteorological threat in the western Mediterranean. Every year, recurrent events affect the area with fatal consequences. Despite this being a well-known issue, open questions still remain. The understanding of the underlying mechanisms and the modeling representation of the events must be improved. In this article we present the most recent lessons learned from the Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment (HyMeX).
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 795–818, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-795-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
On 14–15 October 2018, in the Aude department (France), a heavy-precipitation event produced up to about 300 mm of rain in 11 h. Simulations carried out show that the former Hurricane Leslie, while involved, was not the first supplier of moisture over the entire event. The location of the highest rainfall was primarily driven by the location of a quasi-stationary front and secondarily by the location of precipitation bands downwind of mountains bordering the Mediterranean Sea.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, and Marie-Noëlle Bouin
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 11857–11887, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-11857-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Air–sea processes are key elements during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events. We aim to progress in their representation in high-resolution weather forecast. Using coupled ocean–air–wave simulations, we investigated air–sea mechanisms modulated by ocean and waves during a case that occurred in southern France. Results showed significant impact of the forecast on low-level dynamics and air–sea fluxes and illustrated potential benefits of coupled numerical weather prediction systems.
Alistair Bell, Pauline Martinet, Olivier Caumont, Benoît Vié, Julien Delanoë, Jean-Charles Dupont, and Mary Borderies
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4929–4946, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4929-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents work towards making retrievals on the liquid water content in fog and low clouds. Future retrievals will rely on a radar simulator and high-resolution forecast. In this work, real observations are used to assess the errors associated with the simulator and forecast. A selection method to reduce errors associated with the forecast is proposed. It is concluded that the distribution of errors matches the requirements for future retrievals.
Judith Eeckman, Hélène Roux, Audrey Douinot, Bertrand Bonan, and Clément Albergel
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1425–1446, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-1425-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The risk of flash flood is of growing importance for populations, particularly in the Mediterranean area in the context of a changing climate. The representation of soil processes in models is a key factor for flash flood simulation. The importance of the various methods for soil moisture estimation are highlighted in this work. Local measurements from the field as well as data derived from satellite imagery can be used to assess the performance of model outputs.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 463–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation impact of four observation data sets on forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal total delay data set with information on humidity has the largest impact on analyses and forecasts, representing an evenly spread and frequent data set for each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality, but this impact is not statistically significant.
Christian Keil, Lucie Chabert, Olivier Nuissier, and Laure Raynaud
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 15851–15865, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15851-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-15851-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
During strong synoptic control, which dominates the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-month HyMeX-SOP1 period, the domain-integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the spatial forecast quality of the most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentile, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes.
Olivier Nuissier, Fanny Duffourg, Maxime Martinet, Véronique Ducrocq, and Christine Lac
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14649–14667, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14649-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14649-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This present article demonstrates how numerical simulations with very high horizontal resolution (150 m) can contribute to better understanding the key physical processes (turbulence and microphysics) that lead to Mediterranean heavy precipitation.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin and Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
Ocean Sci., 16, 1125–1142, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1125-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-16-1125-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A kilometre-scale coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation is used to study the impact of a medicane on the oceanic upper layer. The processes responsible for the surface cooling are comparable to those of weak tropical cyclones. The oceanic response is influenced by the dynamics of the central Mediterranean. In particular, a cyclonic eddy leads to weaker cooling. Heavy rain occuring early in the event creates a salinity barrier layer, reinforcing the effects of the surface fluxes on the cooling.
Marie-Noëlle Bouin and Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 6861–6881, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-6861-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A coupled, kilometre-scale simulation of a medicane is used to assess the impact of the ocean feedback and role of surface fluxes. Sea surface temperature (SST) drop is much weaker than for tropical cyclones, resulting in no impact on the cyclone. Surface fluxes depend mainly on wind and SST for evaporation and on air temperature for sensible heat. Processes in the Mediterranean, like advection of continental air, rain evaporation and dry air intrusion, play a role in cyclone development.
Felix Erdmann, Eric Defer, Olivier Caumont, Richard J. Blakeslee, Stéphane Pédeboy, and Sylvain Coquillat
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 853–875, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-853-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
This article compares lightning observations from an optical sensor onboard the International Space Station to two ground-based networks using different radio frequencies. The location and timing of coincident flashes agree well for the three instruments. Differences exist for the detected number of flashes and the characteristics. Small flashes in particular are not always detected by all three instruments. About half of the flashes at altitudes below 10 km are not seen by the satellite sensor.
César Sauvage, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, and Véronique Ducrocq
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 1675–1699, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-1675-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Air–sea exchanges during Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are key and their representation must be improved for high-resolution weather forecasts. This study investigates the mechanisms acting at the air–sea interface during a case that occurred in southern France. To focus on the impact of sea state, we developed and used an original coupled air–wave model. Results show modifications of the forecast for the air–sea fluxes, the near-surface wind and the location of precipitation.
Marc Mandement and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The number of connected personal weather stations has dramatically increased in the last years. These weather stations produce a high number of data that need a thorough quality control to unleash their potential. A novel quality-control algorithm now allows us to take full advantage of these data and observe thunderstorms with fine-scale details that cannot be caught by standard networks. These results pave the way for tremendous advances in both understanding and forecasting thunderstorms.
Tony Le Bastard, Olivier Caumont, Nicolas Gaussiat, and Fatima Karbou
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 5669–5684, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5669-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-5669-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The estimation of surface rainfall from radars becomes less effective at long ranges or in mountainous regions where the radar beam is far from the ground. The method proposed in this paper investigates how vertical profiles simulated from high-resolution model can be used to predict the evolution of the precipitation below the radar beam. Our results show that this novel method leads to better results than the current operational methods that either use climatological or idealised profiles.
Stefano Federico, Rosa Claudia Torcasio, Elenio Avolio, Olivier Caumont, Mario Montopoli, Luca Baldini, Gianfranco Vulpiani, and Stefano Dietrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1839–1864, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1839-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This study shows the possibility to improve the weather forecast at the very short range (0–3 h) using lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations. We consider two challenging events that occurred over Italy, named Serrano and Livorno, characterized by moderate and exceptional rainfall, respectively.
The improvement given to the forecast by using the lightning and/or radar reflectivity observations is considerable. The best performance is obtained when using both data.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, Olivier Caumont, Alexis Doerenbecher, Eric Wattrelot, Patrick Moll, Hervé Bénichou, Dominique Puech, Olivier Bock, Pierre Bosser, Patrick Chazette, Cyrille Flamant, Paolo Di Girolamo, Evelyne Richard, and Frédérique Saïd
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 2657–2678, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2657-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The AROME-WMED (western Mediterranean) model is a dedicated version of the mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction AROME-France model that ran in real time during the first special observation period of HyMeX. Two reanalyses were performed after the campaign. This paper depicts the main differences between the real-time version and the benefits brought by both HyMeX reanalyses. The second reanalysis is found to be closer to observations than the previous AROME-WMED analyses.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, Nadia Fourrié, and Pascal Marquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 907–926, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-907-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The potential of W-band radar reflectivity to improve the quality of analyses and forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area is investigated. The 1D + 3DVar assimilation method has been adapted to assimilate the W-band reflectivity in the Météo-France kilometre-scale NWP model AROME. The results suggest that the joint assimilation of W-band reflectivity and horizontal wind profiles lead to a slight improvement of moisture analyses and rainfall precipitation forecasts.
Mary Borderies, Olivier Caumont, Julien Delanoë, Véronique Ducrocq, and Nadia Fourrié
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 821–835, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-821-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The study reports on the impact of the assimilation of wind data from airborne Doppler cloud-profiling radar in a kilometre-scale NWP model on predicting heavy precipitation events in the Mediterranean area. The positive impact of the assimilation of such data is particularly evidenced for a heavy precipitation event and results are slightly encouraging over a 45-day period. In addition, the impact of the length of the assimilation window in a 3h-3DVar assimilation system is investigated.
Alexane Lovat, Béatrice Vincendon, and Véronique Ducrocq
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1801–1818, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1801-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1801-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
This work aims to estimate the extent to which the terrain descriptors and the spatial resolution of the hydrological model influence flash-flood modelling at the local and basin scale. The skill of the hydrological simulations is evaluated with conventional data (such as discharge measurements) and impact data (post-event surveys and high-water marks). The results reveal that the spatial resolution has the largest impact on the hydrological simulations, larger than soil texture and land cover.
Christine Lac, Jean-Pierre Chaboureau, Valéry Masson, Jean-Pierre Pinty, Pierre Tulet, Juan Escobar, Maud Leriche, Christelle Barthe, Benjamin Aouizerats, Clotilde Augros, Pierre Aumond, Franck Auguste, Peter Bechtold, Sarah Berthet, Soline Bielli, Frédéric Bosseur, Olivier Caumont, Jean-Martial Cohard, Jeanne Colin, Fleur Couvreux, Joan Cuxart, Gaëlle Delautier, Thibaut Dauhut, Véronique Ducrocq, Jean-Baptiste Filippi, Didier Gazen, Olivier Geoffroy, François Gheusi, Rachel Honnert, Jean-Philippe Lafore, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Quentin Libois, Thibaut Lunet, Céline Mari, Tomislav Maric, Patrick Mascart, Maxime Mogé, Gilles Molinié, Olivier Nuissier, Florian Pantillon, Philippe Peyrillé, Julien Pergaud, Emilie Perraud, Joris Pianezze, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Didier Ricard, Evelyne Richard, Sébastien Riette, Quentin Rodier, Robert Schoetter, Léo Seyfried, Joël Stein, Karsten Suhre, Marie Taufour, Odile Thouron, Sandra Turner, Antoine Verrelle, Benoît Vié, Florian Visentin, Vincent Vionnet, and Philippe Wautelet
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents the Meso-NH model version 5.4, which is an atmospheric non-hydrostatic research model that is applied on synoptic to turbulent scales. The model includes advanced numerical techniques and state-of-the-art physics parameterization schemes. It has been expanded to provide capabilities for a range of Earth system prediction applications such as chemistry and aerosols, electricity and lightning, hydrology, wildland fires, volcanic eruptions, and cyclones with ocean coupling.
Aurore Voldoire, Bertrand Decharme, Joris Pianezze, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Florence Sevault, Léo Seyfried, Valérie Garnier, Soline Bielli, Sophie Valcke, Antoinette Alias, Mickael Accensi, Fabrice Ardhuin, Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Véronique Ducrocq, Stéphanie Faroux, Hervé Giordani, Fabien Léger, Patrick Marsaleix, Romain Rainaud, Jean-Luc Redelsperger, Evelyne Richard, and Sébastien Riette
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4207–4227, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4207-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the principles of the new coupling interface based on the SURFEX multi-surface model and the OASIS3-MCT coupler. As SURFEX can be plugged into several atmospheric models, it can be used in a wide range of applications. The objective of this development is to build and share a common structure for the atmosphere–surface coupling of all these applications, involving on the one hand atmospheric models and on the other hand ocean, ice, hydrology, and wave models.
Francesco De Angelis, Domenico Cimini, Ulrich Löhnert, Olivier Caumont, Alexander Haefele, Bernhard Pospichal, Pauline Martinet, Francisco Navas-Guzmán, Henk Klein-Baltink, Jean-Charles Dupont, and James Hocking
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 10, 3947–3961, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3947-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-10-3947-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Modern data assimilation systems require knowledge of the typical differences between observations and model background (O–B). This work illustrates a 1-year O–B analysis for ground-based microwave radiometer (MWR) observations in clear-sky conditions for a prototype network of six MWRs in Europe. Observations are MWR brightness temperatures (TB). Background profiles extracted from the output of a convective-scale model are used to simulate TB through the radiative transfer model RTTOV-gb.
Judith Eeckman, Pierre Chevallier, Aaron Boone, Luc Neppel, Anneke De Rouw, Francois Delclaux, and Devesh Koirala
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 4879–4893, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4879-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-4879-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The central part of the Himalayan Range presents tremendous heterogeneity in terms of topography and climatology, but the representation of hydro-climatic processes for Himalayan catchments is limited due to a lack of knowledge in such poorly instrumented environments. The proposed approach is to characterize the effect of altitude on precipitation by considering ensembles of acceptable altitudinal factors. Ensembles of acceptable values for the components of the water cycle are then provided.
Judith Eeckman, Santosh Nepal, Pierre Chevallier, Gauthier Camensuli, Francois Delclaux, Aaron Boone, and Anneke De Rouw
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-401, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-401, 2017
Preprint retracted
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares the simulation of water cycle obtained using two different hydrological models
in two small mountainous Himalayan catchments. The reliability of the simulations for evapotranspiration, discharge can therefore be considered as satisfactory. The differences in the structure and results of the two models mainly concern the water storages and flows in the soil, in particular in high-mountain environment.
A. Hally, O. Caumont, L. Garrote, E. Richard, A. Weerts, F. Delogu, E. Fiori, N. Rebora, A. Parodi, A. Mihalović, M. Ivković, L. Dekić, W. van Verseveld, O. Nuissier, V. Ducrocq, D. D'Agostino, A. Galizia, E. Danovaro, and A. Clematis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 537–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling strength over central Europe in the recent warming climate
A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security
Soil conditioner mixtures as an agricultural management alternative to mitigate drought impacts: a proof of concept
Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
Probabilistic hazard analysis of the gas emission of Mefite d'Ansanto, southern Italy
Are heavy-rainfall events a major trigger of associated natural hazards along the German rail network?
Brief communication: Forecasting extreme precipitation from atmospheric rivers in New Zealand
The record-breaking precipitation event of December 2022 in Portugal
Compound events in Germany in 2018: drivers and case studies
Assimilation of temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations in AROME-France
The anomalously thundery month of June 1925 in southwest Spain: description and synoptic analysis
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level
Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity
Subseasonal forecasts of heat waves in West African cities
Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events
Brief communication: Training of AI-based nowcasting models for rainfall early warning should take into account user requirements
Examining the Eastern European extreme summer temperatures of 2023 from a long-term perspective: the role of natural variability vs. anthropogenic factors
How well are hazards associated with derechos reproduced in regional climate simulations?
Reconstructing hail days in Switzerland with statistical models (1959–2022)
Exploring the interplay between observed warming, atmospheric circulation, and soil-atmosphere feedbacks on heatwaves in a temperate mountain region
Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland’s electricity grid: Insights from 92 damaging windstorms
GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change
Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?
Intense rains in Israel associated with the train effect
Convection-permitting climate model representation of severe convective wind gusts and future changes in southeastern Australia
Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through citizen science
Global estimates of 100-year return values of daily precipitation from ensemble weather prediction data
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Probabilistic short-range forecasts of high-precipitation events: optimal decision thresholds and predictability limits
The miscellaneous synoptic forcings in the four-day widespread extreme rainfall event over North China in July 2023
Surprise floods: the role of our imagination in preparing for disasters
Modelling crop hail damage footprints with single-polarization radar: the roles of spatial resolution, hail intensity, and cropland density
Insights into ground strike point properties in Europe through the EUCLID lightning location system
The role of citizen science in assessing the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall events in urban areas: a case study in the city of Genoa, Italy
Precipitation extremes in Ukraine from 1979 to 2019: climatology, large-scale flow conditions, and moisture sources
Characterizing hail-prone environments using convection-permitting reanalysis and overshooting top detections over south-central Europe
Aircraft engine dust ingestion at global airports
Catchment-scale assessment of drought impact on environmental flow in the Indus Basin, Pakistan
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping
Estimation of future rainfall extreme values by temperature-dependent disaggregation of climate model data
Climatic characteristics of the Jianghuai cyclone and its linkage with precipitation during the Meiyu period from 1961 to 2020
Verifying the relationships among the variabilities of summer precipitation extremes over western Japan in the d4PDF climate ensemble, monsoon activity, and Pacific sea surface temperature
An appraisal of the value of simulated weather data for quantifying coastal flood hazard in the Netherlands
The usefulness of Extended-Range Probabilistic Forecasts for Heat wave forecasts in Europe
Application of the teaching–learning-based optimization algorithm to an analytical model of thunderstorm outflows to analyze the variability of the downburst kinematic and geometric parameters
Projections and uncertainties of winter windstorm damage in Europe in a changing climate
Improving seasonal predictions of German Bight storm activity
A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe
Application of machine learning to forecast agricultural drought impacts for large scale sub-seasonal drought monitoring in Brazil
Thomas Schwitalla, Lisa Jach, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Kirsten Warrach-Sagi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1405–1424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1405-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
During recent decades, Europe has experienced increasing periods of severe drought and heatwave. To provide an overview of how land-surface conditions shape land–atmosphere (LA) coupling, the interannual LA coupling strength variability for the summer seasons of 1991–2022 is investigated by means of ERA5 data. The results clearly reflect ongoing climate change by a shift in the coupling relationships towards reinforced heating and drying by the land surface.
Marcos Roberto Benso, Roberto Fray Silva, Gabriela Chiquito Gesualdo, Antonio Mauro Saraiva, Alexandre Cláudio Botazzo Delbem, Patricia Angélica Alves Marques, José Antonio Marengo, and Eduardo Mario Mendiondo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1387–1404, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies climate extreme indices to assess climate risks to food security. Using an explainable machine learning analysis, key climate indices affecting maize and soybean yields in Brazil were identified. Results reveal the temporal sensitivity of these indices and critical yield loss thresholds, informing policy and adaptation strategies.
Juan F. Dueñas, Edda Kunze, Huiying Li, and Matthias C. Rillig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 1377–1386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1377-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the potential of adding mixtures composed of minimum dosages of several popular amendment types to soil. Our goal was to increase the resistance of agricultural soil to drought stress. We found that adding mixtures of three to five amendment types increased the capacity of soil to retain water, reduced soil erosion, and increased fungal abundance while buffering soil from drastic changes in pH. More research is encouraged to validate this approach.
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our aim is to characterize the observed evolution of compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system. The frequency of compound events exhibits a decrease over the 1950–2022 period, which is likely due to a decrease in cold days. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is an important driver of compound event occurrence and has likely contributed to the decrease in cold days, while we cannot draw conclusions on its influence on the decrease in compound events.
Fabio Dioguardi, Giovanni Chiodini, and Antonio Costa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-657-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We present results of non-volcanic-gas (CO2) hazard assessment at the Mefite d’Ansanto area (Italy) where a cold-gas stream, which has already been lethal to humans and animals, forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone. We took the uncertainty related to the gas emission and meteorological conditions into account. Results include maps of CO2 concentrations at defined probability levels and the probability of overcoming specified CO2 concentrations over specified time intervals.
Sonja Szymczak, Frederick Bott, Vigile Marie Fabella, and Katharina Fricke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 683–707, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-683-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the correlation between heavy-rainfall events and three associated natural hazards along the German rail network using GIS analyses and random-effects logistic models. The results show that 23 % of floods, 14 % of gravitational mass movements, and 2 % of tree fall events between 2017 and 2020 occurred after a heavy-rainfall event, and the probability of occurrence of flood and tree fall events significantly increased. This study contributes to more resilient rail transport.
Daniel G. Kingston, Liam Cooper, David A. Lavers, and David M. Hannah
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 675–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-675-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme rainfall comprises a major hydrohazard for New Zealand and is commonly associated with atmospheric rivers – narrow plumes of very high atmospheric moisture transport. Here, we focus on improved forecasting of these events by testing a forecasting tool previously applied to similar situations in western Europe. However, our results for New Zealand suggest the performance of this forecasting tool may vary depending on geographical setting.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Alan Demortier, Marc Mandement, Vivien Pourret, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 429–449, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-429-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The use of numerical weather prediction models enables the forecasting of hazardous weather situations. The incorporation of new temperature and relative humidity observations from personal weather stations into the French limited-area model is evaluated in this study. This leads to the improvement of the associated near-surface variables of the model during the first hours of the forecast. Examples are provided for a sea breeze case during a heatwave and a fog episode.
Francisco Javier Acero, Manuel Antón, Alejandro Jesús Pérez Aparicio, Nieves Bravo-Paredes, Víctor Manuel Sánchez Carrasco, María Cruz Gallego, José Agustín García, Marcelino Núñez, Irene Tovar, Javier Vaquero-Martínez, and José Manuel Vaquero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 305–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-305-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The month of June 1925 was found to be exceptional in the southwest interior of the Iberian Peninsula due to the large number of thunderstorms and their significant impacts, with serious losses of human lives and material resources. We analyzed this event from different, complementary perspectives: reconstruction of the history of the events from newspapers, study of monthly meteorological variables of the longest series available, and the analysis of the meteorological synoptic situation.
Tiberiu-Eugen Antofie, Stefano Luoni, Aloïs Tilloy, Andrea Sibilia, Sandro Salari, Gustav Eklund, Davide Rodomonti, Christos Bountzouklis, and Christina Corbane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 287–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation.
Joona Cornér, Clément Bouvier, Benjamin Doiteau, Florian Pantillon, and Victoria A. Sinclair
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 207–229, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-207-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Classification reduces the considerable variability between extratropical cyclones (ETCs) and thus simplifies studying their representation in climate models and changes in the future climate. In this paper we present an objective classification of ETCs using measures of ETC intensity. This is motivated by the aim of finding a set of ETC intensity measures which together comprehensively describe both the dynamical and impact-relevant nature of ETC intensity.
Cedric G. Ngoungue Langue, Christophe Lavaysse, and Cyrille Flamant
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 147–168, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-147-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The present study addresses the predictability of heat waves at subseasonal timescales in West African cities over the period 2001–2020. Two models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the UK Met Office models, were evaluated using two reanalyses: ERA5 and MERRA. The results suggest that at subseasonal timescales, the forecast models provide a better forecast than climatology, but the hit rate and false alarm rate are sub-optimal.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Georgy Ayzel and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 41–47, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-41-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting rainfall over the next hour is an essential feature of early warning systems. Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a powerful alternative to conventional nowcasting technologies, but it still struggles to adequately predict impact-relevant heavy rainfall. We think that DL could do much better if the training tasks were defined more specifically and that such specification presents an opportunity to better align the output of nowcasting models with actual user requirements.
Monica Ionita, Petru Vaideanu, Bogdan Antonescu, Catalin Roibu, Qiyun Ma, and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4683–4706, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4683-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Eastern Europe's heat wave history is explored from 1885 to 2023, with a focus on pre-1960 events. The study reveals two periods with more frequent and intense heat waves (HWs): 1920s–1960s and 1980s–present. The research highlights the importance of a long-term perspective, revealing that extreme heat events have occurred throughout the entire study period, and it emphasizes the combined influence of climate change and natural variations on increasing HW severity.
Tristan Shepherd, Frederick Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4473–4505, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4473-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A historic derecho in the USA is presented. The 29 June 2012 derecho caused more than 20 deaths and millions of US dollars of damage. We use a regional climate model to understand how model fidelity changes under different initial conditions. We find changes drive different convective conditions, resulting in large variation in the simulated hazards. The variation using different reanalysis data shows that framing these results in the context of contemporary and future climate is a challenge.
Lena Wilhelm, Cornelia Schwierz, Katharina Schröer, Mateusz Taszarek, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3869–3894, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3869-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we used statistical models to reconstruct past hail days in Switzerland from 1959–2022. This new time series reveals a significant increase in hail day occurrences over the last 7 decades. We link this trend to increases in moisture and instability variables in the models. This time series can now be used to unravel the complexities of Swiss hail occurrence and to understand what drives its year-to-year variability.
Marc Lemus-Canovas, Sergi Gonzalez-Herrero, Laura Trapero, Anna Albalat, Damian Insua-Costa, Martin Senande-Rivera, and Gonzalo Miguez-Macho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-192, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores the 2022 heatwaves in the Pyrenees, examining the factors that contributed to their intensity and distribution. The June event was driven by strong winds that created uneven temperature patterns, while the July heatwave featured calmer conditions and more uniform temperatures. Human-driven climate change has made these heatwaves more severe compared to the past. This research helps us better understand how climate change affects extreme weather in mountainous regions.
Ilona Láng-Ritter, Terhi Kristiina Laurila, Antti Mäkelä, Hilppa Gregow, and VIctoria Anne SInclair
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-3019, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a classification method for extratropical cyclones and windstorms and show their impacts on Finland's electricity grid by analysing 92 most damaging windstorms (2005–2018). The southwest- and northwest-originating windstorms cause the most damage to the power grid. The most relevant parameters for damage are the wind gust speed and extent of wind gusts. Windstorms are more frequent and damaging in autumn and winter, but weaker wind speeds in summer also cause significant damage.
Xiaowei Zhao, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, Tian Lan, Chaowei Xue, Tongfang Li, Zhaoxia Ye, Zhifang Yang, and Yurou Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3479–3495, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To effectively track and identify droughts, we developed a novel integrated drought index that combines the effects of precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture on drought. After comparison and verification, the integrated drought index shows superior performance compared to a single meteorological drought index or agricultural drought index in terms of drought identification.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Baruch Ziv, Uri Dayan, Lidiya Shendrik, and Elyakom Vadislavsky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3267–3277, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The train effect is related to convective cells that pass over the same place. Trains produce heavy rainfall and sometimes floods and are reported in North America during spring and summer. In Israel, 17 trains associated with Cyprus lows were identified by radar images and were found within the cold sector south of the low center and in the left flank of a maximum wind belt; they cross the Israeli coast, with a mean length of 45 km; last 1–3 h; and yield 35 mm of rainfall up to 60 mm.
Andrew Brown, Andrew Dowdy, and Todd P. Lane
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3225–3243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A computer model that simulates the climate of southeastern Australia is shown here to represent extreme wind events associated with convective storms. This is useful as it allows us to investigate possible future changes in the occurrences of these events, and we find in the year 2050 that our model simulates a decrease in the number of occurrences. However, the model also simulates too many events in the historical climate compared with observations, so these future changes are uncertain.
Katharina Küpfer, Alexandre Tuel, and Michael Kunz
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2803, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail). We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.
Hofit Shachaf, Colin Price, Dorita Rostkier-Edelstein, and Cliff Mass
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3035–3047, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We have used the temperature and relative humidity sensors in smartphones to estimate the vapor pressure deficit (VPD), an important atmospheric parameter closely linked to fuel moisture and wildfire risk. Our analysis for two severe wildfire case studies in Israel and Portugal shows the potential for using smartphone data to compliment the regular weather station network while also providing high spatial resolution of the VPD index.
Florian Ruff and Stephan Pfahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2939–2952, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2939-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
High-impact river floods are often caused by extreme precipitation. Flood protection relies on reliable estimates of the return values. Observational time series are too short for a precise calculation. Here, 100-year return values of daily precipitation are estimated on a global grid based on a large set of model-generated precipitation events from ensemble weather prediction. The statistical uncertainties in the return values can be substantially reduced compared to observational estimates.
Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2875–2893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
François Bouttier and Hugo Marchal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2793–2816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2793-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Weather prediction uncertainties can be described as sets of possible scenarios – a technique called ensemble prediction. Our machine learning technique translates them into more easily interpretable scenarios for various users, balancing the detection of high precipitation with false alarms. Key parameters are precipitation intensity and space and time scales of interest. We show that the approach can be used to facilitate warnings of extreme precipitation.
Jinfang Yin, Feng Li, Mingxin Li, Rudi Xia, Xinghua Bao, Jisong Sun, and Xudong Liang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-145, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A persistent severe rainfall event occurred over North China in July 2023, which was regarded as one of the precipitation extremes of 2023 globally. The extreme rainfall was significant underestimated by forecasters at that time. Flooding from this event affected 1.3 million people, causing severe human casualties and significant economic losses. In this study, we examined the convective initiation and subsequent persistent heavy rainfall over North China based on simulations with the WRF model.
Joy Ommer, Jessica Neumann, Milan Kalas, Sophie Blackburn, and Hannah L. Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2633–2646, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2633-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
What’s the worst that could happen? Recent floods are often claimed to be beyond our imagination. Imagination is the picturing of a situation in our mind and the emotions that we connect with this situation. But why is this important for disasters? This survey found that when we cannot imagine a devastating flood, we are not preparing in advance. Severe-weather forecasts and warnings need to advance in order to trigger our imagination of what might happen and enable us to start preparing.
Raphael Portmann, Timo Schmid, Leonie Villiger, David N. Bresch, and Pierluigi Calanca
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2541–2558, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2541-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents an open-source model to determine the occurrence of hail damage to field crops and grapevines after hailstorms in Switzerland based on radar, agricultural land use data, and insurance damage reports. The model performs best at 8 km resolution for field crops and 1 km for grapevine and in the main production areas. Highlighting performance trade-offs and the relevance of user needs, the study is a first step towards the assessment of risk and damage for crops in Switzerland.
Dieter Roel Poelman, Hannes Kohlmann, and Wolfgang Schulz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2511–2522, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2511-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
EUCLID's lightning data unveil distinctive ground strike point (GSP) patterns in Europe. Over seas, GSPs per flash surpass inland, reaching a minimum in the Alps. Mountainous areas like the Alps and Pyrenees have the closest GSP separation, highlighting terrain elevation's impact. The daily peak current correlates with average GSPs per flash. These findings could significantly influence lightning protection measures, urging a focus on GSP density rather than flash density for risk assessment.
Nicola Loglisci, Giorgio Boni, Arianna Cauteruccio, Francesco Faccini, Massimo Milelli, Guido Paliaga, and Antonio Parodi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2495–2510, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2495-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the meteo-hydrological features of the 27 and 28 August 2023 event that occurred in Genoa. Rainfall observations were made using rain gauge networks based on either official networks or citizen science networks. The merged analysis stresses the spatial variability in the precipitation, which cannot be captured by the current spatial density of authoritative stations. Results show that at minimal distances the variations in cumulated rainfall over a sub-hourly duration are significant.
Ellina Agayar, Franziska Aemisegger, Moshe Armon, Alexander Scherrmann, and Heini Wernli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2441–2459, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2441-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents the results of a climatological investigation of extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in Ukraine for the period 1979–2019. During all seasons EPEs are associated with pronounced upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies. In addition, we find distinct seasonal and regional differences in moisture sources. Several extreme precipitation cases demonstrate the importance of these processes, complemented by a detailed synoptic analysis.
Antonio Giordani, Michael Kunz, Kristopher M. Bedka, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Tiziana Paccagnella, Valentina Pavan, Ines M. L. Cerenzia, and Silvana Di Sabatino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2331–2357, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2331-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To improve the challenging representation of hazardous hailstorms, a proxy for hail frequency based on satellite detections, convective parameters from high-resolution reanalysis, and crowd-sourced reports is tested and presented. Hail likelihood peaks in mid-summer at 15:00 UTC over northern Italy and shows improved agreement with observations compared to previous estimates. By separating ambient signatures based on hail severity, enhanced appropriateness for large-hail occurrence is found.
Claire L. Ryder, Clément Bézier, Helen F. Dacre, Rory Clarkson, Vassilis Amiridis, Eleni Marinou, Emmanouil Proestakis, Zak Kipling, Angela Benedetti, Mark Parrington, Samuel Rémy, and Mark Vaughan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2263–2284, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2263-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Desert dust poses a hazard to aircraft via degradation of engine components. This has financial implications for the aviation industry and results in increased fuel burn with climate impacts. Here we quantify dust ingestion by aircraft engines at airports worldwide. We find Dubai and Delhi in summer are among the dustiest airports, where substantial engine degradation would occur after 1000 flights. Dust ingestion can be reduced by changing take-off times and the altitude of holding patterns.
Khalil Ur Rahman, Songhao Shang, Khaled Saeed Balkhair, Hamza Farooq Gabriel, Khan Zaib Jadoon, and Kifayat Zaman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2191–2214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2191-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper assesses the impact of drought (meteorological drought) on the hydrological alterations in major rivers of the Indus Basin. Threshold regression and range of variability analysis are used to determine the drought severity and times where drought has caused low flows and extreme low flows (identified using indicators of hydrological alterations). Moreover, this study also examines the degree of alterations in river flows due to drought using the hydrological alteration factor.
Alexander Frank Vessey, Kevin I. Hodges, Len C. Shaffrey, and Jonathan J. Day
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2115–2132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones.
Niklas Ebers, Kai Schröter, and Hannes Müller-Thomy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2025–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2025-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Future changes in sub-daily rainfall extreme values are essential in various hydrological fields, but climate scenarios typically offer only daily resolution. One solution is rainfall generation. With a temperature-dependent rainfall generator climate scenario data were disaggregated to 5 min rainfall time series for 45 locations across Germany. The analysis of the future 5 min rainfall time series showed an increase in the rainfall extremes values for rainfall durations of 5 min and 1 h.
Ran Zhu and Lei Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1937–1950, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1937-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
There is a positive correlation between the frequency of Jianghuai cyclone activity and precipitation during the Meiyu period. Its occurrence frequency has an obvious decadal variation, which corresponds well with the quasi-periodic and decadal variation in precipitation during the Meiyu period. This study provides a reference for the long-term and short-term forecasting of precipitation during the Meiyu period.
Shao-Yi Lee, Sicheng He, and Tetsuya Takemi
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1304, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Summer rainfall extremes over western Japan were calculated every year, using radar, rain-gauges, and model. Similar regions were determined by machine learning. The relationships between regional rainfall extremes and Pacific climate modes. The modelled relationships were similar to the observed ones for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the warming trend. However, the model did not reproduce the relationship for Pacific Decadal Variability.
Cees de Valk and Henk van den Brink
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-912, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Recently updated flood safety norms in the Netherlands prescribe that sea dikes and other flood-protecting structures should withstand high sea levels reached very rarely, locally down to only once in 10 million years. We show that such levels can be estimated with reasonable accuracy by the cautious use of very large datasets of numerical simulations of weather and storm surge.
Natalia Korhonen, Otto Hyvärinen, Virpi Kollanus, Timo Lanki, Juha Jokisalo, Risto Kosonen, David S. Richardson, and Kirsti Jylhä
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-75, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The skill of hindcasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in forecasting heat wave days (periods with the 5-day moving average temperature being above its local summer 90th percentile) over Europe 1 to 4 weeks ahead is examined. The heat wave days forecasts show potential in warning of heat risk in 1–2 weeks in advance, and enhanced accuracy in forecasting prolonged heat waves, in lead times of up to 3 weeks, when the heat wave had initiated prior to the forecast issuance.
Andi Xhelaj and Massimiliano Burlando
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1657–1679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1657-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The study provides an in-depth analysis of a severe downburst event in Sânnicolau Mare, Romania, utilizing an analytical model and optimization algorithm. The goal is to explore a multitude of generating solutions and to identify potential alternatives to the optimal solution. Advanced data analysis techniques help to discern three main distinct storm scenarios. For this particular event, the best overall solution from the optimization algorithm shows promise in reconstructing the downburst.
Luca G. Severino, Chahan M. Kropf, Hilla Afargan-Gerstman, Christopher Fairless, Andries Jan de Vries, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, and David N. Bresch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1555–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1555-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We combine climate projections from 30 climate models with a climate risk model to project winter windstorm damages in Europe under climate change. We study the uncertainty and sensitivity factors related to the modelling of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. We emphasize high uncertainties in the damage projections, with climate models primarily driving the uncertainty. We find climate change reshapes future European windstorm risk by altering damage locations and intensity.
Daniel Krieger, Sebastian Brune, Johanna Baehr, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1539–1554, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Previous studies found that climate models can predict storm activity in the German Bight well for averages of 5–10 years but struggle in predicting the next winter season. Here, we improve winter storm activity predictions by linking them to physical phenomena that occur before the winter. We guess the winter storm activity from these phenomena and discard model solutions that stray too far from the guess. The remaining solutions then show much higher prediction skill for storm activity.
João P. A. Martins, Sara Caetano, Carlos Pereira, Emanuel Dutra, and Rita M. Cardoso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1501–1520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Over Europe, 2022 was truly exceptional in terms of extreme heat conditions, both in terms of temperature anomalies and their temporal and spatial extent. The satellite all-sky land surface temperature (LST) is used to provide a climatological context to extreme heat events. Where drought conditions prevail, LST anomalies are higher than 2 m air temperature anomalies. ERA5-Land does not represent this effect correctly due to a misrepresentation of vegetation anomalies.
Joseph William Gallear, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Marcelo Zeri, and Andrew Hartley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-60, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In Brazil, drought is of national concern and can have major consequences for agriculture. Here, we determine how to develop forecasts for drought impacts on vegetation health using machine learning. Results aim to inform future developments in operational drought monitoring at the National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters in Brazil (CEMADEN). This information is essential for disaster preparedness and planning of future actions to support areas affected by drought.
Cited articles
Ancell, B. C.: Improving High-Impact Forecasts through Sensitivity-Based
Ensemble Subsets: Demonstration and Initial Tests, Weather Forecast.,
31, 1019–1036, https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-15-0121.1, 2016. a
Aullo, G., Santurette, P., Ducrocq, V., Jacq, V., Guillemot, F., Sénéquier,
D., Bourdette, N., and Bessemoulin, P.: L'épisode de pluies diluviennes du
12 au 13 novembre 1999 sur le Sud de la France, Météo-France, Toulouse, 80 pp., ISBN 2110923407, 2002. a
Berne, A., Delrieu, G., Creutin, J.-D., and Obled, C.: Temporal and spatial
resolution of rainfall measurements required for urban
hydrology, J. Hydrol., 299, 166–179, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2004.08.002, 2004. a
Bouttier, F., Vié, B., Nuissier, O., and Raynaud, L.: Impact of
Stochastic Physics in a Convection-Permitting
Ensemble, Mon. Weather Rev., 140, 3706–3721, https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-12-00031.1, 2012. a
Bouttier, F., Raynaud, L., Nuissier, O., and Ménétrier, B.:
Sensitivity of the AROME ensemble to initial and surface perturbations
during HyMeX, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142,
390–403, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2622, 2016. a
Bresson, E., Ducrocq, V., Nuissier, O., Ricard, D., and de Saint-Aubin, C.:
Idealized numerical simulations of quasi-stationary convective systems over
the Northwestern Mediterranean complex
terrain, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 138, 1751–1763, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.1911, 2012. a
Brousseau, P., Berre, L., Bouttier, F., and Desroziers, G.: Background-error
covariances for a convective-scale data-assimilation system: AROME-France
3D-Var, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 137, 409–422, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.750, 2011. a
Brousseau, P., Seity, Y., Ricard, D., and Léger, J.: Improvement of the
forecast of convective activity from the AROME-France
system, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 2231–2243,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2822, 2016. a
Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS): METOFFICE-GLO-SST-L4-NRT-OBS-ANOM-V2 product, available at: http://marine.copernicus.eu/, last access: 25 March 2021. a
Courtier, P., Freydier, C., Geleyn, J.-F., Rabier, F., and Rochas, M.: The
Arpege project at Meteo France, in: Seminar on Numerical Methods in
Atmospheric Models, ECMWF, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK, 9–13 September 1991, 193–232, available at:
https://www.ecmwf.int/node/8798 (last access: 27 March 2021), 1991. a
Creutin, J. D., Borga, M., Lutoff, C., Scolobig, A., Ruin, I., and
Créton-Cazanave, L.: Catchment dynamics and social response during
flash floods: the potential of radar rainfall monitoring for warning
procedures, Meteorol. Appl., 16, 115–125, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.128,
2009. a
Donlon, C. J., Martin, M., Stark, J., Roberts-Jones, J., Fiedler, E., and
Wimmer, W.: The Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis
(OSTIA) system, Remote Sens. Environ., 116, 140–158,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2010.10.017, 2012. a
Ducrocq, V., Braud, I., Davolio, S., Ferretti, R., Flamant, C., Jansa, A.,
Kalthoff, N., Richard, E., Taupier-Letage, I., Ayral, P.-A., Belamari, S.,
Berne, A., Borga, M., Boudevillain, B., Bock, O., Boichard, J.-L., Bouin,
M.-N., Bousquet, O., Bouvier, C., Chiggiato, J., Cimini, D., Corsmeier, U.,
Coppola, L., Cocquerez, P., Defer, E., Delanoë, J., Di Girolamo, P.,
Doerenbecher, A., Drobinski, P., Dufournet, Y., Fourrié, N., Gourley, J. J.,
Labatut, L., Lambert, D., Le Coz, J., Marzano, F. S., Molinié, G.,
Montani, A., Nord, G., Nuret, M., Ramage, K., Rison, W., Roussot, O., Saïd,
F., Schwarzenboeck, A., Testor, P., Van Baelen, J., Vincendon, B., Aran,
M., and Tamayo, J.: HyMeX-SOP1: The Field Campaign Dedicated to Heavy
Precipitation and Flash Flooding in the Northwestern
Mediterranean, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 95, 1083–1100,
https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-12-00244.1, 2014. a
Duffourg, F., Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., Flamant, C., Chazette, P., Delanoë,
J., Doerenbecher, A., Fourrié, N., Di Girolamo, P., Lac, C., Legain, D.,
Martinet, M., Saïd, F., and Bock, O.: Offshore deep convection initiation
and maintenance during the HyMeX IOP 16a heavy precipitation event,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 259–274,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2725, 2016. a
Duffourg, F., Lee, K.-O., Ducrocq, V., Flamant, C., Chazette, P., and
Di Girolamo, P.: Role of moisture patterns in the backbuilding formation of
HyMeX IOP13 heavy precipitation systems,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 144, 291–303, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3201, 2018. a
Faggian, N., Roux, B., Steinle, P., and Ebert, B.: Fast calculation of the
fractions skill score, MAUSAM, 457–466, available at:
https://metnet.imd.gov.in/mausamdocs/166310_F.pdf (last access: 27 March 2021), 2015. a
Figueras i Ventura, J. and Tabary, P.: The New French Operational
Polarimetric Radar Rainfall Rate
Product, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 52, 1817–1835, https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-12-0179.1, 2013. a
Fiori, E., Comellas, A., Molini, L., Rebora, N., Siccardi, F., Gochis, D. J.,
Tanelli, S., and Parodi, A.: Analysis and hindcast simulations of an extreme
rainfall event in the Mediterranean area: The Genoa 2011
case, Atmos. Res., 138, 13–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2013.10.007, 2014. a
Fiori, E., Ferraris, L., Molini, L., Siccardi, F., Kranzlmueller, D., and
Parodi, A.: Triggering and evolution of a deep convective system in the
Mediterranean Sea: modelling and observations at a very fine
scale, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 143, 927–941,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2977, 2017. a, b
Grillakis, M. G., Koutroulis, A. G., Komma, J., Tsanis, I. K., Wagner, W., and Blöschl, G.: Initial soil moisture effects on flash flood generation – A comparison between basins of contrasting hydro-climatic
conditions, J. Hydrol., 541, 206–217,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.03.007, 2016. a
Habets, F., Boone, A., Champeaux, J. L., Etchevers, P., Franchistéguy,
L., Leblois, E., Ledoux, E., Moigne, P. L., Martin, E., Morel, S., Noilhan,
J., Seguí, P. Q., Rousset-Regimbeau, F., and Viennot, P.: The
SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU hydrometeorological model applied over
France, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D06113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007jd008548, 2008. a
Hally, A., Caumont, O., Garrote, L., Richard, E., Weerts, A., Delogu, F., Fiori, E., Rebora, N., Parodi, A., Mihalović, A., Ivković, M., Dekić, L., van Verseveld, W., Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., D'Agostino, D., Galizia, A., Danovaro, E., and Clematis, A.: Hydrometeorological multi-model ensemble simulations of the 4 November 2011 flash flood event in Genoa, Italy, in the framework of the DRIHM project, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 537–555, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-537-2015, 2015. a, b, c
Jones, S., Golding, B., Members of the HIWeather Task Team, Participants in the HIWeather Workshops in Karlsruhe, Germany (2013) and Silver Springs, USA (2014): HIWeather Implementation Plan, available at:
http://www.hiweather.net/Uploads/ue/file/20190411/1554934497413129.pdf (last access: 27 March 2021), 2014. a
Lac, C., Chaboureau, J.-P., Masson, V., Pinty, J.-P., Tulet, P., Escobar, J., Leriche, M., Barthe, C., Aouizerats, B., Augros, C., Aumond, P., Auguste, F., Bechtold, P., Berthet, S., Bielli, S., Bosseur, F., Caumont, O., Cohard, J.-M., Colin, J., Couvreux, F., Cuxart, J., Delautier, G., Dauhut, T., Ducrocq, V., Filippi, J.-B., Gazen, D., Geoffroy, O., Gheusi, F., Honnert, R., Lafore, J.-P., Lebeaupin Brossier, C., Libois, Q., Lunet, T., Mari, C., Maric, T., Mascart, P., Mogé, M., Molinié, G., Nuissier, O., Pantillon, F., Peyrillé, P., Pergaud, J., Perraud, E., Pianezze, J., Redelsperger, J.-L., Ricard, D., Richard, E., Riette, S., Rodier, Q., Schoetter, R., Seyfried, L., Stein, J., Suhre, K., Taufour, M., Thouron, O., Turner, S., Verrelle, A., Vié, B., Visentin, F., Vionnet, V., and Wautelet, P.: Overview of the Meso-NH model version 5.4 and its applications, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1929–1969, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1929-2018, 2018. a
Lafore, J. P., Stein, J., Asencio, N., Bougeault, P., Ducrocq, V., Duron, J., Fischer, C., Héreil, P., Mascart, P., Masson, V., Pinty, J. P., Redelsperger, J. L., Richard, E., and Vilà-Guerau de Arellano, J.: The Meso-NH Atmospheric Simulation System. Part I: adiabatic formulation and control simulations, Ann. Geophys., 16, 90–109, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00585-997-0090-6, 1998. a
Laurantin, O.: ANTILOPE: hourly rainfall analysis merging radar and rain gauge data, in: Int. Symp. Weather Radar and Hydrology (WRaH2008), Grenoble/Autrans, France, 10–15 March 2008, 2008. a
Laurantin, O.: ANTILOPE: hourly rainfall analysis over France merging radar and rain gauges data, in: Proceedings of the 11th International Precipitation
Conference, edited by: Leijnse, H. and Uijlenhoet, R., KNMI, Ede-Wageningen, the Netherlands, 30 June to 3 July 2013. a
Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Amengual, A., Garcia, C., Morán-Tejeda, E., Homar, V., Maimó-Far, A., Hermoso, A., Ramis, C., and Romero, R.: Hydro-meteorological reconstruction and geomorphological impact assessment of the October 2018 catastrophic flash flood at Sant Llorenç, Mallorca (Spain), Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2597–2617, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2597-2019, 2019. a
Mandement, M. and Caumont, O.: Contribution of personal weather stations to the observation of deep-convection features near the ground, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 299–322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-299-2020, 2020a. a, b
Mandement, M. and Caumont, O.: A numerical study to investigate the roles of former hurricane Leslie, orography, and evaporative cooling in the 2018 Aude heavy precipitation event, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2020-54, in revision, 2020b. a
Members of the ALADIN international team: The ALADIN project: Mesoscale
modelling seen as a basic tool for weather forecasting and atmospheric
research, World Meteorological Organization Bulletin, 46, 317–324, 1997. a
Ministère de l'écologie, du développement durable et de l'énergie (French Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development, and Energy): HYDRO data bank, available at: http://hydro.eaufrance.fr/, last access: 19 August 2020. a
Nuissier, O., Ducrocq, V., Ricard, D., Lebeaupin, C., and Anquetin, S.: A
numerical study of three catastrophic precipitating events over southern
France, I: Numerical framework and synoptic ingredients,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 134, 111–130, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.200,
2008. a, b, c, d
Parodi, A., Kranzlmüller, D., Clematis, A., Danovaro, E., Galizia, A.,
Garrote, L., Llasat, M. C., Caumont, O., Richard, E., Harpham, Q., Siccardi,
F., Ferraris, L., Rebora, N., Delogu, F., Fiori, E., Molini, L.,
Foufoula-Georgiou, E., and D'Agostino, D.: DRIHM(2US): An e-Science
Environment for Hydrometeorological Research on High-Impact Weather Events,
B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 98, 2149–2166, https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-16-0279.1, 2017. a
Payrastre, O.: Post event Survey Aude October 2018 – HYMEX LOP, SEDOO OMP, https://doi.org/10.6096/MISTRALS-HYMEX.1512, 2019. a
Payrastre, O., Bourgin, F., Caumont, O., Ducrocq, V., Éric Gaume, Janet, B.,
Javelle, P., Lague, D., Moncoulon, D., Naulin, J.-P., Perrin, C., Ramos,
M.-H., Ruin, I., and the PICS project contributors: Integrated nowcasting
of flash floods and related socio-economic impacts: The French ANR PICS
project (2018–2021), in: European Geosciences Union General Assembly, EGU2019-15204, available at:
https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2019/EGU2019-15204.pdf (last access: 27 March 2021), 2019. a
Raynaud, L. and Bouttier, F.: Comparison of initial perturbation methods for
ensemble prediction at convective scale,
Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 142, 854–866, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2686, 2016. a
Ricard, D., Ducrocq, V., and Auger, L.: A Climatology of the Mesoscale
Environment Associated with Heavily Precipitating Events over a Northwestern
Mediterranean Area, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 51, 468–488, https://doi.org/10.1175/jamc-d-11-017.1, 2012.
a, b
Roberts, N. M. and Lean, H. W.: Scale-Selective Verification of Rainfall
Accumulations from High-Resolution Forecasts of Convective Events,
Mon. Weather Rev., 136, 78–97, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR2123.1, 2008. a
Romero, R., Doswell, C. A., and Ramis, C.: Mesoscale Numerical Study of Two
Cases of Long-Lived Quasi-Stationary Convective Systems over Eastern Spain,
Mon. Weather Rev., 128, 3731–3751,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<3731:MNSOTC>2.0.CO;2, 2000. a
Rossa, A., Liechti, K., Zappa, M., Bruen, M., Germann, U., Haase, G., Keil, C., and Krahe, P.: The COST 731 Action: A review on uncertainty propagation in advanced hydro-meteorological forecast systems, Atmos. Res., 100, 150–167, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.11.016, 2011. a
Seity, Y., Brousseau, P., Malardel, S., Hello, G., Bénard, P., Bouttier, F.,
Lac, C., and Masson, V.: The AROME-France Convective-Scale Operational
Model, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 976–991, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3425.1,
2011. a
Sivapalan, M., Jothityangkoon, C., and Menabde, M.: Linearity and nonlinearity of basin response as a function of scale: Discussion of alternative definitions, Water Resour. Res., 38, 41–45,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2001wr000482, 2002. a
Termonia, P., Fischer, C., Bazile, E., Bouyssel, F., Brožková, R., Bénard, P., Bochenek, B., Degrauwe, D., Derková, M., El Khatib, R., Hamdi, R., Mašek, J., Pottier, P., Pristov, N., Seity, Y., Smolíková, P., Španiel, O., Tudor, M., Wang, Y., Wittmann, C., and Joly, A.: The ALADIN System and its canonical model configurations AROME CY41T1 and ALARO CY40T1, Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 257–281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-257-2018, 2018. a
Vincendon, B., Ducrocq, V., Nuissier, O., and Vié, B.: Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1529–1544, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1529-2011, 2011. a
Short summary
This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France.
The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint