Articles | Volume 20, issue 4
Research article
09 Apr 2020
Research article |  | 09 Apr 2020

The role of spatial dependence for large-scale flood risk estimation

Ayse Duha Metin, Nguyen Viet Dung, Kai Schröter, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Björn Guse, Heidi Kreibich, and Bruno Merz

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Cited articles

Alfieri, L., Salamon, P., Bianchi, A., Neal, J., Bates, P., and Feyen, L.: Advances in pan-European flood hazard mapping, Hydrol. Process., 28, 4067–4077,, 2014. 
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Dottori, F., and Bianchi, A.: Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios, Global Environ. Chang., 35, 199–212,, 2015. 
Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., and Di Baldassarre, G.: Increasing flood risk under climate change: a pan-European assessment of the benefits of four adaptation strategies, Clim. Change, 136, 507–521,, 2016. 
Alfieri, L., Bisselink, B., Dottori, F., Naumann, G., de Roo, A., Salamon, P., Wyser, K., and Feyen, L.: Global projections of river flood risk in a warmer world, Earth's Futur., 5, 171–182,, 2017. 
BKG: Digitales Landbedeckungsmodell für Deutschland – DLM-DE2009, Stand der Dokumentation: 30.03.2012, available at: (last access: 8 April 2020), 2012. 
Short summary
For effective risk management, flood risk should be properly assessed. Traditionally, risk is assessed by making the assumption of invariant flow or loss probabilities (the chance that a given discharge or loss is exceeded) within the river catchment during a single flood event. However, in reality, flooding is more severe in some regions than others. This study indicates the importance of representing the spatial dependence of flood peaks and damage for risk assessments.
Final-revised paper