Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-859-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-859-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
27 Mar 2020
Research article |
| 27 Mar 2020
| 27 Mar 2020
Estimation of evapotranspiration by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Penman–Monteith temperature (PMT) and Hargreaves–Samani (HS) models under temporal and spatial criteria – a case study in Duero basin (Spain)
Department of Plant Production, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Avda. Complutense s/n, Madrid, 28040, Spain
CEIGRAM (Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales), C/Senda del Rey 13, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Raquel Bravo
Ministerio de Agricultura y Pesca, Alimentación y Medio Ambiente, Paseo de la Infanta Isabel 1, Madrid, 28071, Spain
Antonio Saa
Department of Plant Production, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Avda. Complutense s/n, Madrid, 28040, Spain
CEIGRAM (Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales), C/Senda del Rey 13, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Ana M. Tarquis
CEIGRAM (Centro de Estudios e Investigación para la Gestión de Riesgos Agrarios y Medioambientales), C/Senda del Rey 13, Madrid, 28040, Spain
Javier Almorox
Department of Plant Production, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Avda. Complutense s/n, Madrid, 28040, Spain
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Juan J. Martin-Sotoca, Ernesto Sanz, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Andrés F. Almeida-Ñauñay, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, 2023
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This work includes vegetation (VCI) and water content index (WCI) series from two semiarid rangeland areas in Spain. Based on then, a Z-score for both was calculated to use it as an anomaly index. In this way, we associated negative anomalies with drought episodes. Then, we study the relations of these negative anomalies to see if it is possible to use WCI as an alarm of agronomic drought (VCI negative anomaly). The description of the behaviour of both areas and their comparison are made.
Juan José Martín-Sotoca, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Nicolas Dalezios, Ioannis Faraslis, and Ana María Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, 2019
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Vegetation indices based on satellite images, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), have been used for damaged pasture insurance. The occurrence of damage is usually defined by NDVI thresholds mainly based on normal statistics. In this work a pasture area in Spain was delimited by MODIS images. A statistical analysis of NDVI was applied to search for alternative distributions. Results show that generalized extreme value distributions present a better fit than normal ones.
R. Moratiel, A. Martínez-Cob, and B. Latorre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1401–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1401-2013, 2013
Alfonso Allen-Perkins, Angel Giménez-García, Ainhoa Magrach, Javier Galeano, Ana María Tarquis, and Ignasi Bartomeus
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Machine learning models outperform simple mechanistic models in predicting pollinator visitation rates. We use deep learning to infer rules from land cover maps to estimate pollination services globally. Results suggest deep learning can improve predictions by identifying complex patterns in landscape composition, especially in data-rich but knowledge-poor areas. The challenge is to make deep learning algorithms more interpretable so that experts can validate prediction rules for pollination.
Paolo Nasta, Günter Blöschl, Heye R. Bogena, Steffen Zacharias, Roland Baatz, Gabriëlle De Lannoy, Karsten H. Jensen, Salvatore Manfreda, Laurent Pfister, Ana M. Tarquis, Ilja van Meerveld, Marc Voltz, Yijian Zeng, William Kustas, Xin Li, Harry Vereecken, and Nunzio Romano
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The Unsolved Problems in Hydrology (UPH) initiative has emphasized the need to establish networks of multi-decadal hydrological observatories to tackle catchment-scale challenges on a global scale. This opinion paper provocatively discusses two end members of possible future hydrological observatory (HO) networks for a given hypothesized community budget: a comprehensive set of moderately instrumented observatories or, alternatively, a small number of highly instrumented super-sites.
Juan J. Martin-Sotoca, Ernesto Sanz, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Andrés F. Almeida-Ñauñay, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-145, 2023
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This work includes vegetation (VCI) and water content index (WCI) series from two semiarid rangeland areas in Spain. Based on then, a Z-score for both was calculated to use it as an anomaly index. In this way, we associated negative anomalies with drought episodes. Then, we study the relations of these negative anomalies to see if it is possible to use WCI as an alarm of agronomic drought (VCI negative anomaly). The description of the behaviour of both areas and their comparison are made.
Jonathan Rizzi, Ana M. Tarquis, Anne Gobin, Mikhail Semenov, Wenwu Zhao, and Paolo Tarolli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3873–3877, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3873-2021, 2021
Panagiotis T. Nastos, Nicolas R. Dalezios, Ioannis N. Faraslis, Kostas Mitrakopoulos, Anna Blanta, Marios Spiliotopoulos, Stavros Sakellariou, Pantelis Sidiropoulos, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1935–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, 2021
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Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation. Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, the need for feedback on all the risk assessment undertakings. However, there is a lack of such feedback, which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards at the present time. The objective of this review paper consists of addressing meteorological hazards and extremes within the risk management framework.
Irene Blanco-Gutiérrez, Rhys Manners, Consuelo Varela-Ortega, Ana M. Tarquis, Lucieta G. Martorano, and Marisol Toledo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 797–813, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-797-2020, 2020
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The Amazon rainforest is being destroyed, resulting in negative ecological and social impacts. We explore how stakeholders perceive the causes of the Amazon's degradation in Bolivia and Brazil and develop a series of scenarios to help strengthen the balance between human development and environmental conservation. The results suggest that the application of governance and well-integrated technical and social reform strategies encourages positive regional changes even under climate change.
Omar Roberto Valverde-Arias, Paloma Esteve, Ana María Tarquis, and Alberto Garrido
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 345–362, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-345-2020, 2020
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We designed an index-based insurance (IBI) for drought and flood in rice crops in Babahoyo (Ecuador). We assessed Babahoyo's soil, climatic and topographic variability, finding two homogeneous zones inside this area. We set differentiated insurance premiums according to the particular risk status of each zone. Results demonstrate that this IBI is an efficient risk transfer tool for policyholders. This insurance design could contribute to stabilizing farmers' incomes and rice production.
María del Pilar Jiménez-Donaire, Ana Tarquis, and Juan Vicente Giráldez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 21–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-21-2020, 2020
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A new combined drought indicator (CDI) is proposed that integrates rainfall, soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The performance of this indicator was evaluated against crop damage data from agricultural insurance schemes in five different areas in SW Spain. Results show that this indicator was able to predict important droughts in 2004–2005 and 2011–2012, marked by crop damage of between 70 % and 95 % of the total insured area. This opens important applications for improving insurance schemes.
Juan José Martín-Sotoca, Antonio Saa-Requejo, Rubén Moratiel, Nicolas Dalezios, Ioannis Faraslis, and Ana María Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1685–1702, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-1685-2019, 2019
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Vegetation indices based on satellite images, such as the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), have been used for damaged pasture insurance. The occurrence of damage is usually defined by NDVI thresholds mainly based on normal statistics. In this work a pasture area in Spain was delimited by MODIS images. A statistical analysis of NDVI was applied to search for alternative distributions. Results show that generalized extreme value distributions present a better fit than normal ones.
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Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 141–155, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-141-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-141-2017, 2017
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NDVI and EVI vegetation indexes, estimated from satellite images, can been used to estimate root zone soil moisture. However, depending on the spatial and radiometric resolution of the sensors used, estimations could change. In this work, images taken by satellites IKONOS-2 and LANDSAT-7 of the same location are compared on the four bands involved in these vegetation indexes. The results show that spatial resolution has a similar scaling effect in the four bands, but not radiometric resolution.
Ana M. Tarquis, María Teresa Castellanos, Maria Carmen Cartagena, Augusto Arce, Francisco Ribas, María Jesús Cabello, Juan López de Herrera, and Nigel R. A. Bird
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 24, 77–87, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-77-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-77-2017, 2017
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Melon crop got different levels of N that constituted a contribution to the variation of soil N at mainly larger scales. During its development a proportion of the N was taken up, adding a second factor of variability at smaller scales. After the melon harvest, the wheat was sown across the plots and harvested at the end of the season. Wheat was used as a N sink crop and allowed us to evaluate the soil N residual. Multiscale and relative entropy were applied to study N scale dependencies.
N. R. Dalezios, A. Blanta, N. V. Spyropoulos, and A. M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 14, 2435–2448, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2435-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-2435-2014, 2014
P. Cely, A. M. Tarquis, J. Paz-Ferreiro, A. Méndez, and G. Gascó
Solid Earth, 5, 585–594, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-585-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-5-585-2014, 2014
A. Matulka, P. López, J. M. Redondo, and A. Tarquis
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 21, 269–278, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-269-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-21-269-2014, 2014
R. Moratiel, A. Martínez-Cob, and B. Latorre
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13, 1401–1410, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-13-1401-2013, 2013
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Maria Magdalena Warter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Christian Marx, and Chris Soulsby
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3907–3924, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3907-2024, 2024
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Streams are increasingly impacted by droughts and floods. Still, the amount of water needed for sustainable flows remains unclear and contested. A comparison of two streams in the Berlin–Brandenburg region of northeast Germany, using stable water isotopes, shows strong groundwater dependence with seasonal rainfall contributing to high/low flows. Understanding streamflow variability can help us assess the impacts of climate change on future water resource management.
Samuel Jonson Sutanto, Matthijs Janssen, Mariana Madruga de Brito, and Maria del Pozo Garcia
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3703–3721, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3703-2024, 2024
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A conventional flood risk assessment only evaluates flood hazard in isolation without considering wildfires. This study, therefore, evaluates the effect of wildfires on flood risk, considering both current and future conditions for the Ebro River basin in Spain. Results show that extreme climate change increases the risk of flooding, especially when considering the effect of wildfires, highlighting the importance of adopting a multi-hazard risk management approach.
Miroslav Spano and Jaromir Riha
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3683–3701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3683-2024, 2024
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The study examines the effects of hydrogeological hazard due to construction of the Skalička Dam near the Hranice Karst on groundwater discharges and water levels in the local karst formations downstream. A simplified pipe model was used to analyze the impact of two dam layouts: lateral and through-flow reservoirs. Results show that the through-flow scheme more significantly influences water levels and the discharge of mineral water, while the lateral layout has only negligible impact.
Rudolf Brázdil, Dominika Faturová, Monika Šulc Michalková, Jan Řehoř, Martin Caletka, and Pavel Zahradníček
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3663–3682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3663-2024, 2024
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Flash floods belong to natural hazards that can be enhanced in frequency, intensity, and impact during recent climate change. This paper presents a complex analysis of spatiotemporal variability and human impacts (including material damage and fatalities) of flash floods in the Czech Republic for the 2001–2023 period. The analysis generally shows no statistically significant trends in the characteristics analyzed.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, and Joël J.-M. Hirschi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3627–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3627-2024, 2024
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We look at how compound flooding from the combination of river flooding and storm tides (storm surge and astronomical tide) may be changing over time due to climate change, with a case study of the Mekong River delta. We found that future compound flooding has the potential to flood the region more extensively and be longer lasting than compound floods today. This is useful to know because it means managers of deltas such as the Mekong can assess options for improving existing flood defences.
Maryam Pakdehi, Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf, Behzad Nazari, and Eunsaem Cho
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3537–3559, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3537-2024, 2024
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Machine learning (ML) algorithms have increasingly received attention for modeling flood events. However, there are concerns about the transferability of these models (their capability in predicting out-of-sample and unseen events). Here, we show that ML models can be transferable for hindcasting maximum river flood depths across extreme events (four hurricanes) in a large coastal watershed (HUC6) when informed by the spatial distribution of pertinent features and underlying physical processes.
María Carmen Llasat, Montserrat Llasat-Botija, Erika Pardo, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, and Marc Lemus-Canovas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3423–3443, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3423-2024, 2024
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This paper shows the first public and systematic dataset of flood episodes referring to the entire Pyrenees massif, at municipal scale, named PIRAGUA_flood. Of the 181 flood events (1981–2015) that produced 154 fatalities, 36 were transnational, with the eastern part of the massif most affected. Dominant weather types show a southern component flow, with a talweg on the Iberian Peninsula and a depression in the vicinity. A positive and significant trend was found in Nouvelle-Aquitaine.
Colin M. Zarzycki, Benjamin D. Ascher, Alan M. Rhoades, and Rachel R. McCrary
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3315–3335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3315-2024, 2024
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We developed an automated workflow to detect rain-on-snow events, which cause flooding in the northeastern United States, in climate data. Analyzing the Susquehanna River basin, this technique identified known events affecting river flow. Comparing four gridded datasets revealed variations in event frequency and severity, driven by different snowmelt and runoff estimates. This highlights the need for accurate climate data in flood management and risk prediction for these compound extremes.
Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Ruben Weesie, Valentin Aich, Juan P. Boisier, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Yiheng Du, Mauricio Galleguillos, René Garreaud, Monica Ionita, Sina Khatami, Johanna K. L. Koehler, Charles H. Luce, Shreedhar Maskey, Heidi D. Mendoza, Moses N. Mwangi, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Germano G. Ribeiro Neto, Tirthankar Roy, Robert Stefanski, Patricia Trambauer, Elizabeth A. Koebele, Giulia Vico, and Micha Werner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3173–3205, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024, 2024
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Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.
Sheik Umar Jam-Jalloh, Jia Liu, Yicheng Wang, and Yuchen Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3155–3172, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3155-2024, 2024
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Our paper explores improving flood forecasting using advanced weather and hydrological models. By coupling the WRF model with WRF-Hydro and HEC-HMS, we achieved more accurate forecasts. WRF–WRF-Hydro excels for short, intense storms, while WRF–HEC-HMS is better for longer, evenly distributed storms. Our research shows how these models provide insights for adaptive atmospheric–hydrologic systems and aims to boost flood preparedness and response with more reliable, timely predictions.
Joshua Dorrington, Marta Wenta, Federico Grazzini, Linus Magnusson, Frederic Vitart, and Christian M. Grams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2995–3012, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024, 2024
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Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.
Alison L. Kay, Nick Dunstone, Gillian Kay, Victoria A. Bell, and Jamie Hannaford
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2953–2970, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2953-2024, 2024
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Hydrological hazards affect people and ecosystems, but extremes are not fully understood due to limited observations. A large climate ensemble and simple hydrological model are used to assess unprecedented but plausible floods and droughts. The chain gives extreme flows outside the observed range: summer 2022 ~ 28 % lower and autumn 2023 ~ 42 % higher. Spatial dependence and temporal persistence are analysed. Planning for such events could help water supply resilience and flood risk management.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Jeroen Aerts, Max Tesselaar, Wouter Botzen, Heidi Kreibich, Lorenzo Alfieri, and Bruno Merz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2923–2937, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2923-2024, 2024
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Our study explored how seasonal flood forecasts could enhance insurance premium accuracy. Insurers traditionally rely on historical data, yet climate fluctuations influence flood risk. We employed a method that predicts seasonal floods to adjust premiums accordingly. Our findings showed significant year-to-year variations in flood risk and premiums, underscoring the importance of adaptability. Despite limitations, this research aids insurers in preparing for evolving risks.
Shahin Khosh Bin Ghomash, Heiko Apel, and Daniel Caviedes-Voullième
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2857–2874, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2857-2024, 2024
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Early warning is essential to minimise the impact of flash floods. We explore the use of highly detailed flood models to simulate the 2021 flood event in the lower Ahr valley (Germany). Using very high-resolution models resolving individual streets and buildings, we produce detailed, quantitative, and actionable information for early flood warning systems. Using state-of-the-art computational technology, these models can guarantee very fast forecasts which allow for sufficient time to respond.
Andrea Betterle and Peter Salamon
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2817–2836, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2817-2024, 2024
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The study proposes a new framework, named FLEXTH, to estimate flood water depth and improve satellite-based flood monitoring using topographical data. FLEXTH is readily available as a computer code, offering a practical and scalable solution for estimating flood depth quickly and systematically over large areas. The methodology can reduce the impacts of floods and enhance emergency response efforts, particularly where resources are limited.
Francisco Javier Gomez, Keighobad Jafarzadegan, Hamed Moftakhari, and Hamid Moradkhani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2647–2665, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2647-2024, 2024
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This study utilizes the global copula Bayesian model averaging technique for accurate and reliable flood modeling, especially in coastal regions. By integrating multiple precipitation datasets within this framework, we can effectively address sources of error in each dataset, leading to the generation of probabilistic flood maps. The creation of these probabilistic maps is essential for disaster preparedness and mitigation in densely populated areas susceptible to extreme weather events.
Manuel Grenier, Mathieu Boudreault, David A. Carozza, Jérémie Boudreault, and Sébastien Raymond
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2577–2595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2577-2024, 2024
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Modelling floods at the street level for large countries like Canada and the United States is difficult and very costly. However, many applications do not necessarily require that level of detail. As a result, we present a flood modelling framework built with artificial intelligence for socioeconomic studies like trend and scenarios analyses. We find for example that an increase of 10 % in average precipitation yields an increase in displaced population of 18 % in Canada and 14 % in the US.
Helge Bormann, Jenny Kebschull, Lidia Gaslikova, and Ralf Weisse
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2559-2024, 2024
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Inland flooding is threatening coastal lowlands. If rainfall and storm surges coincide, the risk of inland flooding increases. We examine how such compound events are influenced by climate change. Data analysis and model-based scenario analysis show that climate change induces an increasing frequency and intensity of compounding precipitation and storm tide events along the North Sea coast. Overload of inland drainage systems will also increase if no timely adaptation measures are taken.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-119, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-119, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Floods have caused significant damage in the past. To prepare for such events, we rely on historical data, but face issues due to rare rainfall events, lack of data, and climate change. Counterfactuals, or "what if" scenarios, simulate historical rainfall in different locations to estimate flood levels. Our new study refines this by deriving more plausible local scenarios, using the June 2024 Bavaria flood as a case study. This method could improve future flood preparation.
Yanxia Shen, Zhenduo Zhu, Qi Zhou, and Chunbo Jiang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2315–2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2315-2024, 2024
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We present an improved Multigrid Dynamical Bidirectional Coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic Model (IM-DBCM) with two major improvements: (1) automated non-uniform mesh generation based on the D-infinity algorithm was implemented to identify flood-prone areas where high-resolution inundation conditions are needed, and (2) ghost cells and bilinear interpolation were implemented to improve numerical accuracy in interpolating variables between the coarse and fine grids. The improved model was reliable.
Taylor Glen Johnson, Jorge Leandro, and Divine Kwaku Ahadzie
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2285–2302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2285-2024, 2024
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Reliance on infrastructure creates vulnerabilities to disruptions caused by natural hazards. To assess the impacts of natural hazards on the performance of infrastructure, we present a framework for quantifying resilience and develop a model of recovery based upon an application of project scheduling under resource constraints. The resilience framework and recovery model were applied in a case study to assess the resilience of building infrastructure to flooding hazards in Accra, Ghana.
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
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On 22 October 2019, the Francolí River basin experienced a heavy precipitation event, resulting in a catastrophic flash flood. Few studies comprehensively address both the physical and human dimensions and their interrelations during extreme flash flooding. This research takes a step forward towards filling this gap in knowledge by examining the alignment among all these factors.
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
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To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management.
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
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A methodology of regional flood hazard mapping is proposed, based on data in Austria, which combines automatic methods with manual interventions to maximise efficiency and to obtain estimation accuracy similar to that of local studies. Flood discharge records from 781 stations are used to estimate flood hazard patterns of a given return period at a resolution of 2 m over a total stream length of 38 000 km. The hazard maps are used for civil protection, risk awareness and insurance purposes.
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
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The simultaneous occurrence of meteorological (precipitation), agricultural (soil moisture), and hydrological (streamflow) drought can lead to augmented impacts. By analysing drought indices derived from the newest climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2018, Hydro-CH2018), we show that with climate change the concurrence of all drought types will increase in all studied regions of Switzerland. Our results stress the benefits of and need for both mitigation and adaptation measures at early stages.
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
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Precipitation-driven hazards including floods, landslides, and lahars can be catastrophic and difficult to forecast due to high uncertainty around future weather patterns. This work presents a stochastic weather model that produces statistically similar (realistic) rainfall over long time periods at minimal computational cost. These data provide much-needed inputs for hazard simulations to support long-term, time and spatially varying risk assessments.
Claudia De Lucia, Michele Amaddii, and Chiara Arrighi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-104, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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The work describes the flood damages to cultural heritage (CH) occurred in the event of September 2022 in Central Italy. Datasets related to flood impacts to cultural heritage are rare and this work aims at highlighting both tangible and intangible aspects and their correlation with physical characteristics of the flood, i.e., water depth and flow velocity. The results show that current knowledge and datasets are inadequate for risk assessment of CH.
Jan Sodoge, Christian Kuhlicke, Miguel D. Mahecha, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1757–1777, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1757-2024, 2024
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We delved into the socio-economic impacts of the 2018–2022 drought in Germany. We derived a dataset covering the impacts of droughts in Germany between 2000 and 2022 on sectors such as agriculture and forestry based on newspaper articles. Notably, our study illustrated that the longer drought had a wider reach and more varied effects. We show that dealing with longer droughts requires different plans compared to shorter ones, and it is crucial to be ready for the challenges they bring.
Mario Di Bacco, Daniela Molinari, and Anna Rita Scorzini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1681–1696, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1681-2024, 2024
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INSYDE 2.0 is a tool for modelling flood damage to residential buildings. By incorporating ultra-detailed survey and desk-based data, it improves the reliability and informativeness of damage assessments while addressing input data uncertainties.
Pravin Maduwantha, Thomas Wahl, Sara Santamaria-Aguilar, Robert Andrew Jane, James F. Booth, Hanbeen Kim, and Gabriele Villarini
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1122, 2024
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Most of the studies on compound flooding assume events that generate extreme rainfall and coastal water level responses originate from a single population, in reality, they originate from multiple populations each with unique statistical characteristics. This paper presents a flexible statistical framework for assessing the compound flood potential from multiple flood drivers that explicitly accounts for different event types.
Théo St. Pierre Ostrander, Thomé Kraus, Bruno Mazzorana, Johannes Holzner, Andrea Andreoli, Francesco Comiti, and Bernhard Gems
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1607–1634, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1607-2024, 2024
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Mountain river confluences are hazardous during localized flooding events. A physical model was used to determine the dominant controls over mountain confluences. Contrary to lowland confluences, in mountain regions, the channel discharges and (to a lesser degree) the tributary sediment concentration control morphological patterns. Applying conclusions drawn from lowland confluences could misrepresent depositional and erosional patterns and the related flood hazard at mountain river confluences.
Maria Staudinger, Martina Kauzlaric, Alexandre Mas, Guillaume Evin, Benoit Hingray, and Daniel Viviroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-909, 2024
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Various combinations of antecedent conditions and precipitation result in floods of varying degrees. Antecedent conditions played a crucial role in generating even large. The key predictors and spatial patterns of antecedent conditions leading to flooding at the basin's outlet were distinct. Precipitation and soil moisture from almost all sub-catchments were important for more frequent floods. For rarer events, only the predictors of specific sub-catchments were important.
Nils Poncet, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Yves Tramblay, Guillaume Thirel, Humberto Vergara, Jonathan Gourley, and Antoinette Alias
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1163–1183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024, 2024
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High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.
Wilson C. H. Chan, Nigel W. Arnell, Geoff Darch, Katie Facer-Childs, Theodore G. Shepherd, and Maliko Tanguy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1065–1078, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1065-2024, 2024
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The most recent drought in the UK was declared in summer 2022. We pooled a large sample of plausible winters from seasonal hindcasts and grouped them into four clusters based on their atmospheric circulation configurations. Drought storylines representative of what the drought could have looked like if winter 2022/23 resembled each winter circulation storyline were created to explore counterfactuals of how bad the 2022 drought could have been over winter 2022/23 and beyond.
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Robert Jüpner, Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, and Sergiy Vorogushyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-856, 2024
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We discuss the validation of flood hazard and risk assessments (FHRAs) to ensure they are useful for decision-making. We propose a new validation framework that considers not only technical aspects but also the real-world context in which decisions are made. By applying this framework to flood emergency planning, we demonstrate its practicality.
Dino Collalti, Nekeisha Spencer, and Eric Strobl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 873–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-873-2024, 2024
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The risk of extreme rainfall events causing floods is likely increasing with climate change. Flash floods, which follow immediately after extreme rainfall, are particularly difficult to forecast and assess. We develop a decision rule for flash flood classification with data on all incidents between 2001 and 2018 in Jamaica with the statistical copula method. This decision rule tells us for any rainfall event of a certain duration how intense it has to be to likely trigger a flash flood.
Ivan Vorobevskii, Thi Thanh Luong, and Rico Kronenberg
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 681–697, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-681-2024, 2024
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This study presents a new version of a framework which allows us to model water balance components at any site on a local scale. Compared with the first version, the second incorporates new datasets used to set up and force the model. In particular, we highlight the ability of the framework to provide seasonal forecasts. This gives potential stakeholders (farmers, foresters, policymakers, etc.) the possibility to forecast, for example, soil moisture drought and thus apply the necessary measures.
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa, Alexandre M. Ramos, José González-Cao, Orlando García-Feal, Cristina Catita, Moncho Gómez-Gesteira, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 609–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-609-2024, 2024
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The present study focuses on an in-depth analysis of floods in the lower section of the Tagus River from a hydrodynamic perspective by means of the Iber+ numerical model and on the development of dam operating strategies to mitigate flood episodes using the exceptional floods of February 1979 as a benchmark. The results corroborate the model's capability to evaluate floods in the study area and confirm the effectiveness of the proposed strategies to reduce flood impact in the lower Tagus valley.
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
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We present a global flood model built using a new terrain data set and evaluated in the Central Highlands of Vietnam.
Andrea Abbate, Leonardo Mancusi, Francesco Apadula, Antonella Frigerio, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 501–537, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-501-2024, 2024
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CRHyME (Climatic Rainfall Hydrogeological Modelling Experiment) is a new physically based and spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model. The main novelties consist of reproducing rainfall-induced geo-hydrological hazards such as shallow landslide, debris flow and watershed erosion through a multi-hazard approach. CRHyME was written in Python, works at a high spatial and temporal resolution, and is a tool suitable for quantifying extreme rainfall consequences at the basin scale.
Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 375–396, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024, 2024
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We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Luis Cea, Manuel Álvarez, and Jerónimo Puertas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-225-2024, 2024
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Mozambique is highly exposed to the impact of floods. To reduce flood damage, it is necessary to develop mitigation measures. Hydrological software is a very useful tool for that purpose, since it allows for a precise quantification of flood hazard in different scenarios. We present a methodology to quantify flood hazard in data-scarce regions, using freely available data and software, and we show its potential by analysing the flood event that took place in the Umbeluzi Basin in February 2023.
Chinh Luu, Giuseppe Forino, Lynda Yorke, Hang Ha, Quynh Duy Bui, Hanh Hong Tran, Dinh Quoc Nguyen, Hieu Cong Duong, and Matthieu Kervyn
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-57, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-57, 2024
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The study produced a novel and integrated approach to assessing the climate hazards of floods and wildfires. We explored multi-hazards assessment and risk through a machine learning modelling approach. The process includes (1) collecting a database of topography, climate, geology, environment, and building data, (2) developing models for multi-hazards assessment and coding in Google Earth Engine, and (3) producing credible multi-hazard susceptibility and building exposure maps.
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, and Marco Massabò
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 199–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-199-2024, 2024
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This work describes Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for the Greater Horn of Africa. It is based on hydrological simulations, inundation mapping, and estimation of population and assets exposed to upcoming river floods. The system supports duty officers in African institutions in the daily monitoring of hydro-meteorological disasters. A first evaluation shows the system performance for the catastrophic floods in the Nile River basin in summer 2020.
Nejc Bezak, Panos Panagos, Leonidas Liakos, and Matjaž Mikoš
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3885–3893, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3885-2023, 2023
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Extreme flooding occurred in Slovenia in August 2023. This brief communication examines the main causes, mechanisms and effects of this event. The flood disaster of August 2023 can be described as relatively extreme and was probably the most extreme flood event in Slovenia in recent decades. The economic damage was large and could amount to well over 5 % of Slovenia's annual gross domestic product; the event also claimed three lives.
Ana Paez-Trujilo, Jeffer Cañon, Beatriz Hernandez, Gerald Corzo, and Dimitri Solomatine
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3863–3883, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3863-2023, 2023
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This study uses a machine learning technique, the multivariate regression tree approach, to assess the hydroclimatic characteristics that govern agricultural and hydrological drought severity. The results show that the employed technique successfully identified the primary drivers of droughts and their critical thresholds. In addition, it provides relevant information to identify the areas most vulnerable to droughts and design strategies and interventions for drought management.
Bouchra Zellou, Nabil El Moçayd, and El Houcine Bergou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3543–3583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3543-2023, 2023
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In this study, we underscore the critical importance of strengthening drought prediction capabilities in the Mediterranean region. We present an in-depth evaluation of current drought forecasting approaches, encompassing statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical–dynamical models, and highlight unexplored research opportunities. Additionally, we suggest viable directions to enhance drought prediction and early warning systems within the area.
Sarra Kchouk, Louise Cavalcante, Lieke A. Melsen, David W. Walker, Germano Ribeiro Neto, Rubens Gondim, Wouter J. Smolenaars, and Pieter R. van Oel
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2726, 2023
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Droughts impact water and people, yet monitoring often overlooks impacts on people. In Northeast Brazil, we assess official data against local experiences, finding data mismatches and blindspots. Mismatches occur due to the data's broad scope missing finer details. Blindspots arise from ignoring diverse community responses and vulnerabilities to droughts. We suggest enhanced monitoring by technical extension officers for both severe and mild droughts.
Francisco Rodrigues do Amaral, Nicolas Gratiot, Thierry Pellarin, and Tran Anh Tu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3379–3405, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3379-2023, 2023
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We propose an in-depth analysis of typhoon-induced compound flood drivers in the megacity of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. We use in situ and satellite measurements throughout the event to form a holistic overview of its impact. No evidence of storm surge was found, and peak precipitation presents a 16 h time lag to peak river discharge, which evacuates only 1.5 % of available water. The astronomical tide controls the river level even during the extreme event, and it is the main urban flood driver.
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Short summary
The estimation of ETo using temperature is particularly attractive in places where air humidity, wind speed and solar radiation data are not readily available. In this study we used, for the estimation of ETo, seven models against Penman–Monteith FAO 56 with temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial perspective over Duero basin (Spain). The results of the tested models can be useful for adopting appropriate measures for efficient water management under the limitation of agrometeorological data.
The estimation of ETo using temperature is particularly attractive in places where air humidity,...
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