Articles | Volume 17, issue 5
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 613–625, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-613-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 613–625, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-613-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
08 May 2017
Research article
| 08 May 2017
A multi-centennial record of past floods and earthquakes in Valle d'Aosta, Mediterranean Italian Alps
Bruno Wilhelm et al.
Related authors
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effects and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Florian Raymond, Bruno Wilhelm, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-100, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the role of precipitation on the high magnitude flood generation to explore in what extent such events could be explained by only atmospheric variables. The role of the precipitation accumulations prior to the flood day progressively decreases when considering floods of weaker magnitude, suggesting a higher diversity of processes involved in the generation of e.g. annual flooding. Our results open new perspectives for flood hazard assessments directly based on climate model outputs.
B. Wilhelm, H. Vogel, C. Crouzet, D. Etienne, and F. S. Anselmetti
Clim. Past, 12, 299–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by reconstructing the Foréant record. Both influences result in a higher flood frequency during past cold periods. Atlantic influences seem to result in more frequent high-intensity flood events during past warm periods, suggesting an increase in flood intensity under the global warming. However, no high-intensity events occurred during the 20th century.
Eva Boisson, Bruno Wilhelm, Emmanuel Garnier, Alain Mélo, Sandrine Anquetin, and Isabelle Ruin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 831–847, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-831-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the database of Historical Impacts of Floods in the Arve Valley (HIFAVa). It reports flood occurrences and impacts (1850–2015) in a French Alpine catchment. Our results show an increasing occurrence of impacts from 1920 onwards, which is more likely related to indirect source effects and/or increasing exposure rather than hydrological changes. The analysis reveals that small mountain streams caused more impacts (67 %) than the main river.
Robin Fentimen, Eline Feenstra, Andres Rüggeberg, Efraim Hall, Valentin Rime, Torsten Vennemann, Irka Hajdas, Antonietta Rosso, David Van Rooij, Thierry Adatte, Hendrik Vogel, Norbert Frank, and Anneleen Foubert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-162, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2021-162, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for CP
Short summary
Short summary
In contrast to northeast Atlantic counterparts, coral mound build-up in the southeast Alboran Sea occurs during glacial as well as during interglacial periods and at very low aggradation rates (between 1 and 10 cm.ky−1). Interglacial benthic foraminiferal assemblages composition highlight the paramount importance of enhanced terrestrial input as a trigger for cold-water coral mound build-up. Rigid erect bryozoans may play an overlooked role in coral mound build-up during glacial periods.
Stamatina Makri, Andrea Lami, Luyao Tu, Wojciech Tylmann, Hendrik Vogel, and Martin Grosjean
Biogeosciences, 18, 1839–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1839-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1839-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Anoxia in lakes is a major growing concern. In this study we applied a multiproxy approach combining high-resolution hyperspectral imaging (HSI) pigment data with specific HPLC data to examine the Holocene evolution and main drivers of lake anoxia and trophic state changes. We find that when human impact was low, these changes were driven by climate and natural lake-catchment evolution. In the last 500 years, increasing human impact has promoted lake eutrophication and permanent anoxia.
Ulrich Harms, Ulli Raschke, Flavio S. Anselmetti, Michael Strasser, Volker Wittig, Martin Wessels, Sebastian Schaller, Stefano C. Fabbri, Richard Niederreiter, and Antje Schwalb
Sci. Dril., 28, 29–41, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-29-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-29-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Hipercorig is a new modular lake sediment coring instrument based on a barge and a hydraulic corer system driven by a down-the-hole hammer. Hipercorig's performance was tested on the two periglacial lakes, namely Mondsee and Constance, located on the northern edge of the Alpine chain. Up to 63 m of Holocene lake sediments and older meltwater deposits from the last deglaciation were recovered for the first time.
Zhisheng An, Peizhen Zhang, Hendrik Vogel, Yougui Song, John Dodson, Thomas Wiersberg, Xijie Feng, Huayu Lu, Li Ai, and Youbin Sun
Sci. Dril., 28, 63–73, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-63-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-28-63-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Earth has experienced remarkable climate–environmental changes in the last 65 million years. The Weihe Basin with its 6000–8000 m infill of a continuous sedimentary sequence gives a unique continental archive for the study of the Cenozoic environment and exploration of deep biospheres. This workshop report concludes key objectives of the two-phase Weihe Basin Drilling Project and the global significance of reconstructing Cenozoic climate evolution and tectonic–monsoon interaction in East Asia.
Martin Ménégoz, Evgenia Valla, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Juliette Blanchet, Julien Beaumet, Bruno Wilhelm, Hubert Gallée, Xavier Fettweis, Samuel Morin, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5355–5377, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5355-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates precipitation changes in the Alps, using observations and a 7 km resolution climate simulation over 1900–2010. An increase in mean precipitation is found in winter over the Alps, whereas a drying occurred in summer in the surrounding plains. A general increase in the daily annual maximum of precipitation is evidenced (20 to 40 % per century), suggesting an increase in extreme events that is significant only when considering long time series, typically 50 to 80 years.
Robin Fentimen, Eline Feenstra, Andres Rüggeberg, Efraim Hall, Valentin Rime, Torsten Vennemann, Irka Hajdas, Antonietta Rosso, David Van Rooij, Thierry Adatte, Hendrik Vogel, Norbert Frank, Thomas Krengel, and Anneleen Foubert
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2020-82, 2020
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
This study describes the development of a cold-water Coral mound in the southeast alboran sea over the last 300 ky. Mound development follows interglacial-glacial cycles.
Aurèle Vuillemin, André Friese, Richard Wirth, Jan A. Schuessler, Anja M. Schleicher, Helga Kemnitz, Andreas Lücke, Kohen W. Bauer, Sulung Nomosatryo, Friedhelm von Blanckenburg, Rachel Simister, Luis G. Ordoñez, Daniel Ariztegui, Cynthia Henny, James M. Russell, Satria Bijaksana, Hendrik Vogel, Sean A. Crowe, Jens Kallmeyer, and the Towuti Drilling Project
Science team
Biogeosciences, 17, 1955–1973, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1955-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-1955-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Ferruginous lakes experience restricted primary production due to phosphorus trapping by ferric iron oxides under oxic conditions. We report the presence of large crystals of vivianite, a ferrous iron phosphate, in sediments from Lake Towuti, Indonesia. We address processes of P retention linked to diagenesis of iron phases. Vivianite crystals had light Fe2+ isotope signatures and contained mineral inclusions consistent with antecedent processes of microbial sulfate and iron reduction.
Florian Raymond, Bruno Wilhelm, and Sandrine Anquetin
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-100, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2019-100, 2019
Manuscript not accepted for further review
Short summary
Short summary
We focus on the role of precipitation on the high magnitude flood generation to explore in what extent such events could be explained by only atmospheric variables. The role of the precipitation accumulations prior to the flood day progressively decreases when considering floods of weaker magnitude, suggesting a higher diversity of processes involved in the generation of e.g. annual flooding. Our results open new perspectives for flood hazard assessments directly based on climate model outputs.
Florence Sylvestre, Mathieu Schuster, Hendrik Vogel, Moussa Abdheramane, Daniel Ariztegui, Ulrich Salzmann, Antje Schwalb, Nicolas Waldmann, and the ICDP CHADRILL Consortium
Sci. Dril., 24, 71–78, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-24-71-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-24-71-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
CHADRILL aims to recover a sedimentary core spanning the Miocene–Pleistocene sediment succession of Lake Chad through deep drilling. This record will provide significant insights into the modulation of orbitally forced changes in northern African hydroclimate under different climate boundary conditions and the most continuous climatic and environmental record to be compared with hominid migrations across northern Africa and the implications for understanding human evolution.
Bernd Wagner, Thomas Wilke, Alexander Francke, Christian Albrecht, Henrike Baumgarten, Adele Bertini, Nathalie Combourieu-Nebout, Aleksandra Cvetkoska, Michele D'Addabbo, Timme H. Donders, Kirstin Föller, Biagio Giaccio, Andon Grazhdani, Torsten Hauffe, Jens Holtvoeth, Sebastien Joannin, Elena Jovanovska, Janna Just, Katerina Kouli, Andreas Koutsodendris, Sebastian Krastel, Jack H. Lacey, Niklas Leicher, Melanie J. Leng, Zlatko Levkov, Katja Lindhorst, Alessia Masi, Anna M. Mercuri, Sebastien Nomade, Norbert Nowaczyk, Konstantinos Panagiotopoulos, Odile Peyron, Jane M. Reed, Eleonora Regattieri, Laura Sadori, Leonardo Sagnotti, Björn Stelbrink, Roberto Sulpizio, Slavica Tofilovska, Paola Torri, Hendrik Vogel, Thomas Wagner, Friederike Wagner-Cremer, George A. Wolff, Thomas Wonik, Giovanni Zanchetta, and Xiaosen S. Zhang
Biogeosciences, 14, 2033–2054, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2033-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-2033-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Ohrid is considered to be the oldest existing lake in Europe. Moreover, it has a very high degree of endemic biodiversity. During a drilling campaign at Lake Ohrid in 2013, a 569 m long sediment sequence was recovered from Lake Ohrid. The ongoing studies of this record provide first important information on the environmental and evolutionary history of the lake and the reasons for its high endimic biodiversity.
James M. Russell, Satria Bijaksana, Hendrik Vogel, Martin Melles, Jens Kallmeyer, Daniel Ariztegui, Sean Crowe, Silvia Fajar, Abdul Hafidz, Doug Haffner, Ascelina Hasberg, Sarah Ivory, Christopher Kelly, John King, Kartika Kirana, Marina Morlock, Anders Noren, Ryan O'Grady, Luis Ordonez, Janelle Stevenson, Thomas von Rintelen, Aurele Vuillemin, Ian Watkinson, Nigel Wattrus, Satrio Wicaksono, Thomas Wonik, Kohen Bauer, Alan Deino, André Friese, Cynthia Henny, Imran, Ristiyanti Marwoto, La Ode Ngkoimani, Sulung Nomosatryo, La Ode Safiuddin, Rachel Simister, and Gerald Tamuntuan
Sci. Dril., 21, 29–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-21-29-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/sd-21-29-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The Towuti Drilling Project seeks to understand the long-term environmental and climatic history of the tropical western Pacific and to discover the unique microbes that live in metal-rich sediments. To accomplish these goals, in 2015 we carried out a scientific drilling project on Lake Towuti, located in central Indonesia. We recovered over 1000 m of core, and our deepest core extended 175 m below the lake floor and gives us a complete record of the lake.
Aleksandra Cvetkoska, Elena Jovanovska, Alexander Francke, Slavica Tofilovska, Hendrik Vogel, Zlatko Levkov, Timme H. Donders, Bernd Wagner, and Friederike Wagner-Cremer
Biogeosciences, 13, 3147–3162, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3147-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-3147-2016, 2016
Giovanni Zanchetta, Eleonora Regattieri, Biagio Giaccio, Bernd Wagner, Roberto Sulpizio, Alex Francke, Hendrik Vogel, Laura Sadori, Alessia Masi, Gaia Sinopoli, Jack H. Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, and Niklas Leicher
Biogeosciences, 13, 2757–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2757-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2757-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Chronology is fundamental in paleoclimatology for understanding timing of events and their origin. In this paper we try to obtain a more detailed chronology for the interval comprised between ca. 140 and 70 ka for the DEEP core in Lake Ohrid using regional independently-dated archives (i.e. speleothems and/or lacustrine succession with well-dated volcanic layers). This allows to insert the DEEP chronology within a common chronological frame between different continental and marine proxy records.
Janna Just, Norbert R. Nowaczyk, Leonardo Sagnotti, Alexander Francke, Hendrik Vogel, Jack H. Lacey, and Bernd Wagner
Biogeosciences, 13, 2093–2109, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2093-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2093-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The magnetic record from Lake Ohrid reflects a strong change in geochemical conditions in the lake. Before 320 ka glacial sediments contain iron sulfides, while later glacials are dominated by siderite. Superimposed on this large-scale pattern are climatic induced changes in the magnetic mineralogy. Glacial and stadial sediments are characterized by relative increases of high- vs. low-coercivity minerals which relate to enhanced erosion in the catchment, possibly due to a sparse vegetation.
Jack H. Lacey, Melanie J. Leng, Alexander Francke, Hilary J. Sloane, Antoni Milodowski, Hendrik Vogel, Henrike Baumgarten, Giovanni Zanchetta, and Bernd Wagner
Biogeosciences, 13, 1801–1820, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1801-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1801-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We use stable isotope data from carbonates to provide a palaeoenvironmental reconstruction covering the last 637 kyr at Lake Ohrid (FYROM/Albania). Our results indicate a relatively stable climate until 450 ka, wetter climate conditions at 400–250 ka, and a transition to a drier climate after 250 ka. This work emphasises the importance of Lake Ohrid as a valuable archive of climate change in the northern Mediterranean region.
Alexander Francke, Bernd Wagner, Janna Just, Niklas Leicher, Raphael Gromig, Henrike Baumgarten, Hendrik Vogel, Jack H. Lacey, Laura Sadori, Thomas Wonik, Melanie J. Leng, Giovanni Zanchetta, Roberto Sulpizio, and Biagio Giaccio
Biogeosciences, 13, 1179–1196, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1179-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-1179-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Ohrid (Macedonia, Albania) is thought to be more than 1.2 million years old. To recover a long paleoclimate record for the Mediterranean region, a deep drilling was carried out in 2013 within the scope of the Scientific Collaboration on Past Speciation Conditions in Lake Ohrid (SCOPSCO) project. Here, we present lithological, sedimentological, and (bio-)geochemical data from the upper 247.8 m composite depth of the overall 569 m long DEEP site record.
B. Wilhelm, H. Vogel, C. Crouzet, D. Etienne, and F. S. Anselmetti
Clim. Past, 12, 299–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
The long-term response of the flood activity to both Atlantic and Mediterranean climatic influences was explored by reconstructing the Foréant record. Both influences result in a higher flood frequency during past cold periods. Atlantic influences seem to result in more frequent high-intensity flood events during past warm periods, suggesting an increase in flood intensity under the global warming. However, no high-intensity events occurred during the 20th century.
J. Holtvoeth, D. Rushworth, H. Copsey, A. Imeri, M. Cara, H. Vogel, T. Wagner, and G. A. Wolff
Biogeosciences, 13, 795–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-795-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-795-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Lake Ohrid is situated in the southern Balkans between Albania and Macedonia. It is a unique ecosystem with remarkable biodiversity and a sediment record of past climates that goes back more than a million years. Detailed reconstructions of past climate development and human alteration of the environment require underpinned and so in this study we go the present-day lake vegetation and catchment soils and test new proxies over one of the known recent cooling events of the region 8200 years ago.
B. Wagner, M. J. Leng, T. Wilke, A. Böhm, K. Panagiotopoulos, H. Vogel, J. H. Lacey, G. Zanchetta, and R. Sulpizio
Clim. Past, 10, 261–267, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-261-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-261-2014, 2014
C. Meyer-Jacob, H. Vogel, A. C. Gebhardt, V. Wennrich, M. Melles, and P. Rosén
Clim. Past, 10, 209–220, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-209-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-209-2014, 2014
N. R. Nowaczyk, E. M. Haltia, D. Ulbricht, V. Wennrich, M. A. Sauerbrey, P. Rosén, H. Vogel, A. Francke, C. Meyer-Jacob, A. A. Andreev, and A. V. Lozhkin
Clim. Past, 9, 2413–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2413-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2413-2013, 2013
M. Magny, N. Combourieu-Nebout, J. L. de Beaulieu, V. Bout-Roumazeilles, D. Colombaroli, S. Desprat, A. Francke, S. Joannin, E. Ortu, O. Peyron, M. Revel, L. Sadori, G. Siani, M. A. Sicre, S. Samartin, A. Simonneau, W. Tinner, B. Vannière, B. Wagner, G. Zanchetta, F. Anselmetti, E. Brugiapaglia, E. Chapron, M. Debret, M. Desmet, J. Didier, L. Essallami, D. Galop, A. Gilli, J. N. Haas, N. Kallel, L. Millet, A. Stock, J. L. Turon, and S. Wirth
Clim. Past, 9, 2043–2071, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2043-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2043-2013, 2013
U. Frank, N. R. Nowaczyk, P. Minyuk, H. Vogel, P. Rosén, and M. Melles
Clim. Past, 9, 1559–1569, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1559-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1559-2013, 2013
H. Vogel, C. Meyer-Jacob, M. Melles, J. Brigham-Grette, A. A. Andreev, V. Wennrich, P. E. Tarasov, and P. Rosén
Clim. Past, 9, 1467–1479, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1467-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1467-2013, 2013
S. Joannin, B. Vannière, D. Galop, O. Peyron, J. N. Haas, A. Gilli, E. Chapron, S. B. Wirth, F. Anselmetti, M. Desmet, and M. Magny
Clim. Past, 9, 913–933, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-913-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-913-2013, 2013
L. Cunningham, H. Vogel, V. Wennrich, O. Juschus, N. Nowaczyk, and P. Rosén
Clim. Past, 9, 679–686, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-679-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-679-2013, 2013
B. Wagner, A. Francke, R. Sulpizio, G. Zanchetta, K. Lindhorst, S. Krastel, H. Vogel, J. Rethemeyer, G. Daut, A. Grazhdani, B. Lushaj, and S. Trajanovski
Clim. Past, 8, 2069–2078, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2069-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-2069-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Atmospheric, Meteorological and Climatological Hazards
Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management
Idealized simulations of Mei-yu rainfall in Taiwan under uniform southwesterly flow using a cloud-resolving model
Hotspots for warm and dry summers in Romania
Development of a forecast-oriented kilometre-resolution ocean–atmosphere coupled system for western Europe and sensitivity study for a severe weather situation
Tropical cyclone storm surge probabilities for the east coast of the United States: a cyclone-based perspective
Hydrometeorological analysis of the 12 and 13 September 2019 widespread flash flooding in eastern Spain
Monitoring the daily evolution and extent of snow drought
Characteristics of precipitation extremes over the Nordic region: added value of convection-permitting modeling
Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin
Invited perspectives: how does climate change affect the risk of natural hazards? Challenges and step changes from the reinsurance perspective
An observation operator for geostationary lightning imager data assimilation in the French storm-scale numerical weather prediction system AROME
Nowcasting thunderstorm hazards using machine learning: the impact of data sources on performance
Spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry event features and their transition across the Upper Jhelum Basin (UJB) in South Asia
Precipitation stable isotopic signatures of tropical cyclones in Metropolitan Manila, Philippines, show significant negative isotopic excursions
Evaluation of Mei-yu heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in Taiwan by a cloud-resolving model for three seasons of 2012–2014
Modelling the volcanic ash plume from Eyjafjallajökull eruption (May 2010) over Europe: evaluation of the benefit of source term improvements and of the assimilation of aerosol measurements
Applying machine learning for drought prediction in a perfect model framework using data from a large ensemble of climate simulations
Using high-resolution regional climate models to estimate return levels of daily extreme precipitation over Bavaria
An ensemble of state-of-the-art ash dispersion models: towards probabilistic forecasts to increase the resilience of air traffic against volcanic eruptions
A climatology of sub-seasonal temporal clustering of extreme precipitation in Switzerland and its links to extreme discharge
Impact of large wildfires on PM10 levels and human mortality in Portugal
Investigating 3D and 4D variational rapid-update-cycling assimilation of weather radar reflectivity for a heavy rain event in central Italy
Variability in lightning hazard over Indian region with respect to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases
Social sensing of high-impact rainfall events worldwide: a benchmark comparison against manually curated impact observations
Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards
Implementation of WRF-Hydro at two drainage basins in the region of Attica, Greece, for operational flood forecasting
Intense windstorms in the northeastern United States
Review article: Risk management framework of environmental hazards and extremes in Mediterranean ecosystems
Global ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 1: Observations
Global ground strike point characteristics in negative downward lightning flashes – Part 2: Algorithm validation
Assessing internal changes in the future structure of dry–hot compound events: the case of the Pyrenees
Changes in drought features at the European level over the last 120 years
Assimilation of Himawari-8 imager radiance data with the WRF-3DVAR system for the prediction of Typhoon Soudelor
Atmospheric conditions leading to an exceptional fatal flash flood in the Negev Desert, Israel
Review article: Towards resilient vital infrastructure systems – challenges, opportunities, and future research agenda
Fatalities associated with the severe weather conditions in the Czech Republic, 2000–2019
Drought propagation and construction of a comprehensive drought index based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and empirical Kendall distribution function (KC′): a case study for the Jinta River basin in northwestern China
Extreme wind return periods from tropical cyclones in Bangladesh: insights from a high-resolution convection-permitting numerical model
Review article: Observations for high-impact weather and their use in verification
An analysis of temporal scaling behaviour of extreme rainfall in Germany based on radar precipitation QPE data
The heavy precipitation event of 14–15 October 2018 in the Aude catchment: a meteorological study based on operational numerical weather prediction systems and standard and personal observations
Wet and dry spells in Senegal: comparison of detection based on satellite products, reanalysis, and in situ estimates
Drought impact in the Bolivian Altiplano agriculture associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation using satellite imagery data
A statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment
The impact of drought on soil moisture trends across Brazilian biomes
Simulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimations
Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe
A new view on the risk of typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific
Data assimilation impact studies with the AROME-WMED reanalysis of the first special observation period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment
Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, Manuela I. Brunner, Claudia Teutschbein, Doris E. Wendt, Vytautas Akstinas, Sigrid J. Bakke, Lucy J. Barker, Lenka Bartošová, Agrita Briede, Carmelo Cammalleri, Ksenija Cindrić Kalin, Lucia De Stefano, Miriam Fendeková, David C. Finger, Marijke Huysmans, Mirjana Ivanov, Jaak Jaagus, Jiří Jakubínský, Svitlana Krakovska, Gregor Laaha, Monika Lakatos, Kiril Manevski, Mathias Neumann Andersen, Nina Nikolova, Marzena Osuch, Pieter van Oel, Kalina Radeva, Renata J. Romanowicz, Elena Toth, Mirek Trnka, Marko Urošev, Julia Urquijo Reguera, Eric Sauquet, Aleksandra Stevkov, Lena M. Tallaksen, Iryna Trofimova, Anne F. Van Loon, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Jean-Philippe Vidal, Niko Wanders, Micha Werner, Patrick Willems, and Nenad Živković
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2201–2217, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Shi-Ting Chen, Dong-In Lee, and Kazuhisa Tsuboki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1795–1817, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1795-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, cloud-resolving simulations are performed under idealized and uniform southwesterly flow direction and speed to investigate the rainfall regimes in the Mei-yu season and the role of complex mesoscale topography on rainfall without the influence of unwanted disturbances, including a low-Froude number regime where the thermodynamic effects and island circulation dominate, a high-Froude number regime where topographic rainfall in a flow-over scenario prevails, and a mixed regime.
Viorica Nagavciuc, Patrick Scholz, and Monica Ionita
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1347–1369, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Here we have assessed the variability and trends of hot and dry summers in Romania. The length, spatial extent, and frequency of heat waves in Romania have increased significantly over the last 70 years, while no significant changes have been observed in the drought conditions. The increased frequency of heat waves, especially after the 1990s, could be partially explained by an increase in the geopotential height over the eastern part of Europe.
Joris Pianezze, Jonathan Beuvier, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Guillaume Samson, Ghislain Faure, and Gilles Garric
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1301–1324, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1301-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Most numerical weather and oceanic prediction systems do not consider ocean–atmosphere feedback during forecast, and this can lead to significant forecast errors, notably in cases of severe situations. A new high-resolution coupled ocean–atmosphere system is presented in this paper. This forecast-oriented system, based on current regional operational systems and evaluated using satellite and in situ observations, shows that the coupling improves both atmospheric and oceanic forecasts.
Katherine L. Towey, James F. Booth, Alejandra Rodriguez Enriquez, and Thomas Wahl
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1287–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding due to storm surge from tropical cyclones is a significant hazard. The influence of tropical cyclone characteristics, including its proximity, intensity, path angle, and speed, on the magnitude of storm surge is examined along the eastern United States. No individual characteristic was found to be strongly related to how much surge occurred at a site, though there is an increased likelihood of high surge occurring when tropical cyclones are both strong and close to a location.
Arnau Amengual
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1159–1179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
On 12 and 13 September 2019, a long-lasting heavy precipitation episode resulted in widespread flash flooding over eastern Spain. Well-organized and quasi-stationary convective structures impacted a vast area with rainfall amounts over 200 mm. The very dry initial soil moisture conditions resulted in a dampened hydrological response: until runoff thresholds were exceeded, infiltration-excess generation did not start. This threshold-based behaviour is explored through simple scaling theory.
Benjamin J. Hatchett, Alan M. Rhoades, and Daniel J. McEvoy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 869–890, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-869-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Snow droughts, or below-average snowpack, can result from either dry conditions and/or rainfall instead of snowfall. Monitoring snow drought through time and across space is important to evaluate when snow drought onset occurred, its duration, spatial extent, and severity as well as what conditions created it or led to its termination. We present visualization techniques, including a web-based snow-drought-tracking tool, to evaluate snow droughts and assess their impacts in the western US.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Anja T. Rädler
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 659–664, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-659-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disasters are causing high losses worldwide. To adequately deal with this loss potential, a reinsurer has to quantitatively assess the individual risks of natural catastrophes and how these risks are changing over time with respect to climate change. From a reinsurance perspective, the most pressing scientific challenges related to natural hazards are addressed, and broad changes are suggested that should be achieved by the scientific community to address these hazards in the future.
Pauline Combarnous, Felix Erdmann, Olivier Caumont, Éric Defer, and Maud Martet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-39, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-39, 2022
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study is to prepare the assimilation of satellite lightning data in the French regional numerical weather prediction system. The assimilation of lightning data requires an observation operator, based on empirical relationships between the lightning observations and a set of proxies derived from the numerical weather prediction system variables. We fit machine learning regression models to our data to yield those relationships and to investigate the best proxy for lightning.
Jussi Leinonen, Ulrich Hamann, Urs Germann, and John R. Mecikalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 577–597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-577-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the usefulness of different data sources and variables to the short-term prediction (
nowcasting) of severe thunderstorms using machine learning. Machine-learning models are trained with data from weather radars, satellite images, lightning detection and weather forecasts and with terrain elevation data. We analyze the benefits provided by each of the data sources to predicting hazards (heavy precipitation, lightning and hail) caused by the thunderstorms.
Rubina Ansari and Giovanna Grossi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 287–302, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-287-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-287-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The current research investigated spatio-temporal evolution of wet–dry events collectively, their characteristics, and their transition (wet to dry and dry to wet) across the Upper Jhelum Basin using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration (SPEI) at a monthly timescale. The results provide significant knowledge to identify and locate most vulnerable geographical hotspots of extreme events, providing the basis for more effective risk reduction and climate change adaptation plans.
Dominik Jackisch, Bi Xuan Yeo, Adam D. Switzer, Shaoneng He, Danica Linda M. Cantarero, Fernando P. Siringan, and Nathalie F. Goodkin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-213-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-213-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Philippines is a nation very vulnerable to devastating typhoons. We investigate if stable isotopes of precipitation can be used to detect typhoon activities in the Philippines based on daily isotope measurements from Metropolitan Manila. We find that strong typhoons such as Rammasun, which occurred in July 2014, leave detectable isotopic signals in precipitation. Besides other factors, the distance of the typhoon to the sampling site plays a key role in influencing the signal.
Chung-Chieh Wang, Pi-Yu Chuang, Chih-Sheng Chang, Kazuhisa Tsuboki, Shin-Yi Huang, and Guo-Chen Leu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 23–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-23-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study indicated that the Cloud-Resolving Storm Simulator (CReSS) model significantly improved heavy-rainfall quantitative precipitation forecasts in the Taiwan Mei-yu season. At high resolution, the model has higher threat scores and is more skillful in predicting larger rainfall events compared to smaller ones. And the strength of the model mainly lies in the topographic rainfall rather than less predictable and migratory events due to nonlinearity.
Matthieu Plu, Guillaume Bigeard, Bojan Sič, Emanuele Emili, Luca Bugliaro, Laaziz El Amraoui, Jonathan Guth, Beatrice Josse, Lucia Mona, and Dennis Piontek
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3731–3747, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3731-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, may have huge economic consequences due to flight cancellations. In this article, we demonstrate the benefits of source term improvement and of data assimilation for quantifying volcanic ash concentrations. The work, which was supported by the EUNADICS-AV project, is the first one, to our knowledge, that demonstrates the benefit of the assimilation of ground-based lidar data over Europe during an eruption.
Elizaveta Felsche and Ralf Ludwig
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3679–3691, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3679-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3679-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study applies artificial neural networks to predict drought occurrence in Munich and Lisbon, with a lead time of 1 month. An analysis of the variables that have the highest impact on the prediction is performed. The study shows that the North Atlantic Oscillation index and air pressure 1 month before the event have the highest importance for the prediction. Moreover, it shows that seasonality strongly influences the goodness of prediction for the Lisbon domain.
Benjamin Poschlod
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3573–3598, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3573-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Three regional climate models (RCMs) are used to simulate extreme daily rainfall in Bavaria statistically occurring once every 10 or even 100 years. Results are validated with observations. The RCMs can reproduce spatial patterns and intensities, and setups with higher spatial resolutions show better results. These findings suggest that RCMs are suitable for assessing the probability of the occurrence of such rare rainfall events.
Matthieu Plu, Barbara Scherllin-Pirscher, Delia Arnold Arias, Rocio Baro, Guillaume Bigeard, Luca Bugliaro, Ana Carvalho, Laaziz El Amraoui, Kurt Eschbacher, Marcus Hirtl, Christian Maurer, Marie D. Mulder, Dennis Piontek, Lennart Robertson, Carl-Herbert Rokitansky, Fritz Zobl, and Raimund Zopp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2973–2992, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2973-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Past volcanic eruptions that spread out ash over large areas, like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, forced the cancellation of thousands of flights and had huge economic consequences.
In this article, an international team in the H2020 EU-funded EUNADICS-AV project has designed a probabilistic model approach to quantify ash concentrations. This approach is evaluated against measurements, and its potential use to mitigate the impact of future large-scale eruptions is discussed.
Alexandre Tuel and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2949–2972, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2949-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme river discharge may be triggered by large accumulations of precipitation over short time periods, which can result from the successive occurrence of extreme-precipitation events. We find a distinct spatiotemporal pattern in the temporal clustering behavior of precipitation extremes over Switzerland, with clustering occurring on the northern side of the Alps in winter and on their southern side in fall. Clusters tend to be followed by extreme discharge, particularly in the southern Alps.
Patricia Tarín-Carrasco, Sofia Augusto, Laura Palacios-Peña, Nuno Ratola, and Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2867–2880, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2867-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2867-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Uncontrolled wildfires have a substantial impact on the environment and local populations. Although most southern European countries have been impacted by wildfires in the last decades, Portugal has the highest percentage of burned area compared to its whole territory. Under this umbrella, associations between large fires, PM10, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality (circulatory and respiratory) have been explored using Poisson regression models for 2001–2016.
Vincenzo Mazzarella, Rossella Ferretti, Errico Picciotti, and Frank Silvio Marzano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2849–2865, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2849-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Forecasting precipitation over the Mediterranean basin is still a challenge. In this context, data assimilation techniques play a key role in improving the initial conditions and consequently the timing and position of the precipitation forecast. For the first time, the ability of a cycling 4D-Var to reproduce a heavy rain event in central Italy, as well as to provide a comparison with the largely used cycling 3D-Var, is evaluated in this study.
Avaronthan Veettil Sreenath, Sukumarapillai Abhilash, and Pattathil Vijaykumar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2597–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2597-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2597-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Lightning is a multifaceted hazard with widespread negative consequences for the environment and society. We explore how El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases impact the lightning over India by modulating the deep convection and associated atmospheric thermodynamics. Results show that ENSO phases directly influence lightning during monsoon and postmonsoon seasons by pushing the mean position of subtropical westerlies southward.
Michelle D. Spruce, Rudy Arthur, Joanne Robbins, and Hywel T. P. Williams
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2407–2425, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2407-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Despite increased use of impact-based weather warnings, the social impacts of extreme weather events lie beyond the reach of conventional meteorological observations and remain difficult to quantify. This study compares data collected from the social media platform Twitter with a manually curated database of high-impact rainfall events across the globe between January–June 2017. Twitter is found to be a good detector of impactful rainfall events and, therefore, a useful source of impact data.
Folmer Krikken, Flavio Lehner, Karsten Haustein, Igor Drobyshev, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
Florian Pappenberger, Florence Rabier, and Fabio Venuti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2163–2167, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high-quality global medium‐range (3–15 d ahead of time) weather forecasts and monitoring of the Earth system. We have published a new strategy, and in this paper we discuss what this means for forecasting and monitoring natural hazards.
Elissavet Galanaki, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Vassiliki Kotroni, Theodore Giannaros, and Christos Giannaros
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1983–2000, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1983-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1983-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
A two-way coupled hydrometeorological model (WRF-Hydro) is used for flood forecasting purposes in medium-catchment-size basins in Greece. The results showed the capability of WRF-Hydro to adequately simulate the observed discharge and the slight improvement in terms of quantitative precipitation forecasting compared to the WRF-only simulations.
Frederick W. Letson, Rebecca J. Barthelmie, Kevin I. Hodges, and Sara C. Pryor
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2001–2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2001-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Windstorms during the last 40 years in the US Northeast are identified and characterized using the spatial extent of extreme wind speeds at 100 m height from the ERA5 reanalysis. During all of the top 10 windstorms, wind speeds exceeding the local 99.9th percentile cover at least one-third of the land area in this high-population-density region. These 10 storms followed frequently observed cyclone tracks but have intensities 5–10 times the mean values for cyclones affecting this region.
Panagiotis T. Nastos, Nicolas R. Dalezios, Ioannis N. Faraslis, Kostas Mitrakopoulos, Anna Blanta, Marios Spiliotopoulos, Stavros Sakellariou, Pantelis Sidiropoulos, and Ana M. Tarquis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1935–1954, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1935-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Risk assessment consists of three steps: identification, estimation and evaluation. Nevertheless, the risk management framework also includes a fourth step, the need for feedback on all the risk assessment undertakings. However, there is a lack of such feedback, which constitutes a serious deficiency in the reduction of environmental hazards at the present time. The objective of this review paper consists of addressing meteorological hazards and extremes within the risk management framework.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Stephane Pedeboy, Dustin Hill, Marcelo Saba, Hugh Hunt, Lukas Schwalt, Christian Vergeiner, Carlos T. Mata, Carina Schumann, and Tom Warner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1909–1919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1909-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1909-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Information about lightning properties is important in order to advance the current understanding of lightning, whereby the characteristics of ground strike points are in particular helpful to improving the risk estimation for lightning protection. High-speed video recordings of 1174 negative downward lightning flashes are taken in different regions around the world and analyzed in terms of flash multiplicity, duration, interstroke intervals and ground strike point properties.
Dieter R. Poelman, Wolfgang Schulz, Stephane Pedeboy, Leandro Z. S. Campos, Michihiro Matsui, Dustin Hill, Marcelo Saba, and Hugh Hunt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1921–1933, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1921-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1921-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The lightning flash density is a key input parameter for assessing the risk of occurrence of a lightning strike. Flashes tend to have more than one ground termination point on average; therefore the use of ground strike point densities is more appropriate. The aim of this study is to assess the ability of three distinct ground strike point algorithms to correctly determine the observed ground-truth strike points.
Marc Lemus-Canovas and Joan Albert Lopez-Bustins
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1721–1738, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1721-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1721-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present research that attempts to address recent and future changes in hot and dry compound events in the Pyrenees, which can induce severe environmental hazards in this area. The results show that during the last few decades, these kinds of compound events have only increased due to temperature increase. However, for the future, it is expected that the risk associated with these compound events will be raised by both the thermal increase and the longer duration of drought periods.
Monica Ionita and Viorica Nagavciuc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1685–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1685-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1685-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
By analyzing the joint frequency of compound events (e.g., high temperatures and droughts), we show that the potential evapotranspiration and mean air temperature are becoming essential components for drought occurrence over Central Europe and the Mediterranean region. This, together with the projected increase in potential evapotranspiration under a warming climate, has significant implications concerning the future occurrence of drought events over these regions.
Feifei Shen, Aiqing Shu, Hong Li, Dongmei Xu, and Jinzhong Min
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1569–1582, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1569-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1569-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on Himawari-8 can continuously monitor high-impact weather events with high frequency in space and time. The assimilation of AHI radiance data was implemented with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model for the analysis and prediction of Typhoon Soudelor (2015) in the Pacific typhoon season.
Uri Dayan, Itamar M. Lensky, Baruch Ziv, and Pavel Khain
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1583–1597, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1583-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
An intense rainstorm hit the Middle East between 24 and 27 April 2018. The storm reached its peak over Israel on 26 April when a heavy flash flood took the lives of 10 people. The rainfall was comparable to the long-term annual rainfall in the southern Negev. The timing was the end of the rainy season when rain is rare and spotty. The study analyses the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that made this rainstorm one of the latest spring severe events in the region during the last 3 decades.
Seyedabdolhossein Mehvar, Kathelijne Wijnberg, Bas Borsje, Norman Kerle, Jan Maarten Schraagen, Joanne Vinke-de Kruijf, Karst Geurs, Andreas Hartmann, Rick Hogeboom, and Suzanne Hulscher
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1383–1407, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1383-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1383-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This review synthesizes and complements existing knowledge in designing resilient vital infrastructure systems (VIS). Results from a systematic literature review indicate that (i) VIS are still being built without taking resilience explicitly into account and (ii) measures to enhance the resilience of VIS have not been widely applied in practice. The main pressing topic to address is the integration of the combined social, ecological, and technical resilience of these systems.
Rudolf Brázdil, Kateřina Chromá, Lukáš Dolák, Jan Řehoř, Ladislava Řezníčková, Pavel Zahradníček, and Petr Dobrovolný
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1355–1382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1355-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present an analysis of fatalities attributable to weather conditions in the Czech Republic during the 2000–2019 period based on our own database created from newspaper reports, on the database of the Czech Statistical Office, and on the database of the police of the Czech Republic as well as on their comparison. Despite some uncertainties, generally declining trends in the number of fatalities appear for the majority of weather variables. The structure of fatalities is described in detail.
Zheng Liang, Xiaoling Su, and Kai Feng
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1323–1335, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1323-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1323-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In view of the shortage of data in alpine mountainous areas and the difficulty of a single drought index to reflect all the characteristics of drought, this paper constructs a comprehensive drought index (MAHDI) based on the SWAT model and the empirical Kendall distribution function, which connects multiple drought elements. The results show that MAHDI can simultaneously characterize meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought and has strong applicability and comprehensiveness.
Hamish Steptoe and Theodoros Economou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1313–1322, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1313-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1313-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use high-resolution computer simulations of tropical cyclones to investigate extreme wind speeds over Bangladesh. We show that some northern provinces, up to 200 km inland, may experience conditions equal to or exceeding a very severe cyclonic storm event with a likelihood equal to coastal regions less than 50 km inland. We hope that these kilometre-scale hazard maps facilitate one part of the risk assessment chain to improve local ability to make effective risk management decisions.
Chiara Marsigli, Elizabeth Ebert, Raghavendra Ashrit, Barbara Casati, Jing Chen, Caio A. S. Coelho, Manfred Dorninger, Eric Gilleland, Thomas Haiden, Stephanie Landman, and Marion Mittermaier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1297–1312, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1297-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This paper reviews new observations for the verification of high-impact weather and provides advice for their usage in objective verification. New observations include remote sensing datasets, products developed for nowcasting, datasets derived from telecommunication systems, data collected from citizens, reports of impacts and reports from insurance companies. This work has been performed in the framework of the Joint Working Group on Forecast Verification Research (JWGFVR) of the WMO.
Judith Marie Pöschmann, Dongkyun Kim, Rico Kronenberg, and Christian Bernhofer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1195–1207, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1195-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1195-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We examined maximum rainfall values for different durations from 16 years of radar-based rainfall records for whole Germany. Unlike existing observations based on rain gauge data no clear linear relationship could be identified. However, by classifying all time series, we could identify three similar groups determined by the temporal structure of rainfall extremes observed in the study period. The study highlights the importance of using long data records and a dense measurement network.
Olivier Caumont, Marc Mandement, François Bouttier, Judith Eeckman, Cindy Lebeaupin Brossier, Alexane Lovat, Olivier Nuissier, and Olivier Laurantin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1135–1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1135-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study focuses on the heavy precipitation event of 14 and 15 October 2018, which caused deadly flash floods in the Aude basin in south-western France.
The case is studied from a meteorological point of view using various operational numerical weather prediction systems, as well as a unique combination of observations from both standard and personal weather stations. The peculiarities of this case compared to other cases of Mediterranean heavy precipitation events are presented.
Cheikh Modou Noreyni Fall, Christophe Lavaysse, Mamadou Simina Drame, Geremy Panthou, and Amadou Thierno Gaye
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1051–1069, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1051-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1051-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme wet and dry rainfall periods over Senegal provided by satellite, reanalyses, and ground observations are compared. Despite a spatial coherence of seasonal rainfall accumulation between all products, discrepancies are found at intra-seasonal timescales. All datasets highlight comparable seasonal cycles of dry and wet spells. Nevertheless, CHIRPS and TAMSAT are close to observations for the dry spells, whereas TRMM obtains the closest values of wet spells as regards the observations.
Claudia Canedo-Rosso, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Georg Pflug, Bruno Condori, and Ronny Berndtsson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 995–1010, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-995-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-995-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Drought is a major natural hazard that causes large losses for farmers. This study evaluated drought severity based on a drought classification scheme using NDVI and LST, which was related to the ENSO anomalies. In addition, the spatial distribution of NDVI was associated with precipitation and air temperature at the local level. Our findings show that drought severity increases during El Niño years, and as a consequence the socio-economic drought risk of farmers will likely increase.
William C. Arthur
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 893–916, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-893-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-893-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We have developed a statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs), to undertake hazard and risk assessments at continental scales. The model enables users to build an understanding of the likelihood and magnitude of TC-related wind speeds across full ocean basins but at a fine spatial resolution. The model can also be applied to single events, either scenarios or forecast events, to inform detailed impact assessments.
Flavio Lopes Ribeiro, Mario Guevara, Alma Vázquez-Lule, Ana Paula Cunha, Marcelo Zeri, and Rodrigo Vargas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 879–892, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-879-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-879-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The main objective of this paper was to analyze differences in soil moisture responses to drought for each biome of Brazil. For that we used satellite data from the European Space Agency from 2009 to 2015. We found an overall soil moisture decline of −0.5 % yr−1 at the country level and identified the most vulnerable biomes of Brazil. This information is crucial to enhance the national drought early warning system and develop strategies for drought risk reduction and soil moisture conservation.
Kees Nederhoff, Jasper Hoek, Tim Leijnse, Maarten van Ormondt, Sofia Caires, and Alessio Giardino
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The design of coastal protection affected by tropical cyclones is often based solely on the analysis of historical tropical cyclones (TCs). The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on historical data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed, called the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE can simulate thousands of tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any data source.
Elody Fluck, Michael Kunz, Peter Geissbuehler, and Stefan P. Ritz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 683–701, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Severe convective storms (SCSs) and the related hail events constitute major atmospheric hazards in parts of Europe. In our study, we identified the regions of France, Germany, Belgium and Luxembourg that were most affected by hail over a 10 year period (2005 to 2014). A cell-tracking algorithm was computed on remote-sensing data to enable the reconstruction of several thousand SCS tracks. The location of hail hotspots will help us understand hail formation and improve hail forecasting.
Kelvin S. Ng and Gregor C. Leckebusch
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-663-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-663-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the rarity of high-impact tropical cyclones (TCs), it is difficult to achieve a robust TC hazard assessment based on historical observations only. Here we present an approach to construct a TC event set that contains more than 10 000 years of TC events by using a computationally simple and efficient method. This event set has similar characteristics as the historical observations but includes a better representation of intense TCs. Thus, a robust TC hazard assessment can be achieved.
Nadia Fourrié, Mathieu Nuret, Pierre Brousseau, and Olivier Caumont
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 463–480, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-463-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The assimilation impact of four observation data sets on forecasts is studied in a mesoscale weather model. The ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) zenithal total delay data set with information on humidity has the largest impact on analyses and forecasts, representing an evenly spread and frequent data set for each analysis time over the model domain. Moreover, the reprocessing of these data also improves the forecast quality, but this impact is not statistically significant.
Cited articles
Ai, F., Strasser, M., Preu, B., Hanebuth, T. J. J., Krastel, S., and Kopf, A.: New constraints on the oceanographic vs. seismic control on submarine landslides initiation: A geotechnical approach off Uruguay and northern Argentina, Geo Mar. Lett., 34, 399–417, 2014.
Amann, B., Sönke, S., and Grosjean, M.: A millennial-long record of warm season precipitation and flood frequency for the Northwestern Alps inferred from varved lake sediments: implications for the future, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 115, 89–100, 2015.
Appleby, P. G., Richardson, N., and Nolan, P. J.: 241Am dating of lake sediments, Hydrobiologia, 214, 35–42, 1991.
Arnaud, F., Lignier, V., Revel, M., Desmet, M., Pourchet, M., Beck, C., Charlet, F., Trentesaux, A., and Tribovillard, N.: Flood and earthquake disturbance of 210Pb geochronology (Lake Anterne, North French Alps), Terra Nova, 14, 225–232, 2002.
Arnaud, F., Revel-Rolland, M., Bosch, D., Winiarski, T., Chapron, E., Desmet, M., Tribovillard, N., and Givelet, N.: A reliable 300 years-long history of lead contamination in Northern French Alps from distant lake sediment records, J. Environ. Monit., 6, 448–456, 2004.
Avşar, U., Hubert-Ferrari, A., De Batist, M., Lepoint, G., Schmidt, S., and Fagel, N.: Seismically-triggered organic-rich layers in recent sediments from Göllüköy Lake (North Anatolian Fault, Turkey), Quaternary Sci. Rev., 103, 67–80, 2014.
Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A., Stoffel, M., St George, S., and Hirschboeck, K.: A review of flood records from tree rings, Prog. Phys. Geog., 39, 794–816, 2015.
Beck, C.: Late Quaternary lacustrine paleo-seismic archives in north-western Alps: Examples of earthquake-origin assessment of sedimentary disturbances, Earth Sci. Rev., 96, 327–344, 2009.
Benito, G., Macklin, M. G., Panin, A., Rossato, S., Fontana, A., Jones, A. F., Machado, M. J., Matlakhova, E., Mozzi, P., and Zielhofer, C.: Recurring flood distribution patterns related to short-term Holocene climatic variability, Science reports, 5, 1–8, 2015.
Boschi, E., Guidoboni, E., Ferrari, G., Mariotti, D., Valensise, G., and Gasperini, P.: Catalogue of Strong Italian Earthquakes, Ann. Geofis., 43, 609–868, 2000.
Brázdil, R., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Benito, G., Demarée, G., Macdonald, N., and Roald, L. A.: Historical floods in Europe in the past Millennium, in: Changes in Flood Risk in Europe, edited by: Kundzewicz, Z. W., IAHS Press, Wallingford, 121–166, 2012.
Buzzi, A. and Foschini, L.: Mesoscale meteorological features associated with heavy precipitation in the Southern Alpine Region, Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 72, 131–146, 2000.
Chapron, E., Simonneau, A., Ledoux, G., Arnaud, F., Lajeunesse, P., and Albéric, P.: French Alpine Foreland Holocene Paleoseismicity Revealed by Coeval Mass Wasting Deposits in Glacial Lakes, in: Submarine Mass Movements and their Consequences, edited by: Lamarche, G., Mountjoy, J., Bull, S., Hubble, T., Krastel, S., Lane, E., Micallef, A., Moscardelli, L., Mueller, C., Pecher, I., and Woelz, S., Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, 41, 341–349, 2016.
Croudace, I. W., Rindby, A., and Rothwell, R. G.: ITRAX: description and evaluation of a new multi-function X-ray core scanner, in: New Techniques in Sediment Core Analysis, edited by: Rothwell, R. G., Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 367, 51–63, 2006.
Davis, O. K. and Schafer, D.: Sporormiella fungal spores, a palynological means of detecting herbivore density, Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 237, 40–50, 2006.
Denniston, R. G., Villarini, G., Gonzales, A. N., Wyrwoll, K. H., Polyak, V. J., Ummenhofer, C. C, Lachniet, M. S., Wanamaker Jr., A. D., Humphreys, W. F., Woods, D., and Cugley, J.: Extreme rainfall activity in the Australian tropics reflects changes in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation over the last two millennia, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 112, 4576–4581, 2015.
Etienne, D., Wilhelm, B., Sabatier, P., Reyss, J.-L., and Arnaud, F.: Influence of sample location and livestock numbers on Sporormiella concentrations and accumulation rates in surface sediments of Lake Allos, French Alps, J. Paleolimnol., 49, 117–127, 2013.
Eva, C., Barani, S., Carenzo, G., De Ferrari, R., Eva, E., Ferretti, G., Pasta, M., Pavan, M., Scafidi, D., Solarino, S., Spallarossa, D., Turino, C., and Zunino, E.: 30 years of seismicity in the South-western Alps and Northern Apennines as recorded by the Regional Seismic network of Northwestern Italy, Proceedings of GNGTS 2010, Prato, Italy, 2010.
Fäh, D., Giardini, D., Kästli, P., Deichmann, N., Gisler, M., Schwarz-Zanetti, G., Alvarez-Rubio, S., Sellami, S., Edwards, B., Allmann, B., Bethmann, F., Wössner, J., Gassner-Stamm, G., Fritsche, S., and Eberhard, D.: ECOS-09 Earthquake Catalogue of Switzerland Release 2011, Report and Database, Public catalogue, 17 April 2011, Swiss Seismological Service ETH Zürich, Report SED/RISK/R/001/20110417, 2011.
Fanetti, D., Anselmetti, F. S., Chapron, E., Sturm, M., and Vezzoli, L.: Megaturbidite deposits in the Holocene basin fill of Lake Como (southern Alps, Italy), Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 259, 323–340, 2008.
Gani, M. R.: From turbid to lucid: A straightforward approach to sediment gravity flows and their deposits, Sediment. Rec., 2, 4–8, 2004.
Gaume, E., Bain, V., Bernardara, P., Newinger, O., Barbuc, M., Bateman, A., Blaškovicčová, L., Blöschl, G., Borga, M., Dumitrescu, A., Daliakopoulos, I., Garcia, J., Irimescu, A., Kohnova, S., Koutroulis, A., Marchi, L., Matreata, S., Medina, V., Preciso, E., Sempere-Torres, D., Stancalie, G., Szolgay, J., Tsanis, I., Velasco, D., and Viglione, A.: A collation of data on European flash floods, J. Hydrol., 367, 70–78, 2009.
Giguet-Covex, C., Arnaud, F., Poulenard, J., Disnar, J. R., Delhon, C., Francus, P., David, F., Enters, D., Rey, P.-J., and Delannoy, J.-J.: Changes of erosion patterns during the Holocene in a currently treeless subalpine catchment inferred from lake sediment geochemistry (Lake Anterne, 2063 m asl, NW French Alps), Holocene, 21, 651–665, 2011.
Gilli, A., Anselmetti, F. S., Glur, L., and Wirth, S. B.: Lake sediments as archives of recurrence rates and intensities of past flood events, in: Dating Torrential Processes on Fans and Cones – Methods and Their Application for Hazard and Risk Assessment, edited by: Schneuwly-Bollschweiler, M., Stoffel, M., and Rudolf-Miklau, F., Adv. Glob. Change Res., 47, 225–242, 2012.
Goldberg, E. D.: Geochronology with 210Pb Radioactive Dating, IAEA, Vienna, 121–131, 1963.
Guidoboni, E., Ferrari, G., Mariotti, D., Comastri, A., Tarabusi, G., and Valensise, G.: Catalogue of strong earthquakes in Italy 461B.C.–1997 and Mediterranean area 760 B.C.–1500, 2007, available at: http://storing.ingv.it/cfti4med (last access: 18 October 2016), 2007.
Guyard, H., Chapron, E., St-Onge, G., Anselmetti, F. S., Arnaud, F., Magand, O., Francus, P., and Melières, M. A.: High-altitude varve records of abrupt environmental changes and mining activity over the last 4000 years in the Western French Alps (Lake Bramant, Grandes Rousses Massif), Quaternary Sci. Rev. 26, 2644–2660, 2007.
Guzzetti, F. and Tonelli, G.: Information system on hydrological and geomorphological catastrophes in Italy (SICI): a tool for managing landslide and flood hazards, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 4, 213–232, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-213-2004, 2004.
Howarth, J. D., Fitzsimons, S. J., Norris, R. J., and Jacobsen, G. E.: Lake sediments record high intensity shaking that provides insight into the location and rupture length of large earthquakes on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand, Earth Planet. Sc. Lett., 403, 340–351, 2014
IPCC: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Jenny, J.-P., Wilhelm, B., Arnaud, F., Sabatier, P., Giguet-Covex, C., Mélo, A., Fanget, B., Malet, E., Ployon, E., and Perga, M. E.: A 4D sedimentological approach to reconstructing the flood frequency and intensity of the Rhône River (Lake Bourget, NW European Alps), J. Paleolimnol., 51, 469–483, 2014.
Kremer, K., Corella, J. P., Adatte, T., Garnier, E., Zenhäusern, G., and Girardclos, S.: Origin of turbidites in deep Lake Geneva (France-Switzerland) in the last 1500 years, J. Sed. Res., 85, 1455–1465, 2015.
Lambert, J. and Levret-Albaret, A.: Mille ans de Séismes en France, Catalogues d'Épicentres, Paramètres et Références, Ouest-Editions ed., 78 pp., Presses Académiques, Nantes, 1996.
Lapointe, F., Francus, P., Lamoureaux, S. F., Saıd, M., and Cuven, S.: 1,750 years of large rainfall events inferred from particle size at East Lake, Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Canada, J. Paleolimnol., 48, 159–173, 2012.
Larroque, C., Scotti, O., and Ioualalen, I.: Reappraisal of the 1887 Ligurian earthquake [western Mediterranean] from macroseismicity, active tectonics and tsunami modelling, Geophys. J. Int., 190, 87–104, 2012.
Lauterbach, S., Chapron, E., Hüls, M., Gilli, A., Arnaud, F., Piccin, A., Nomade, J., Desmet, M., von Grafenstein, U., and DecLakes Participants: A sediment record of Holocene surface runoff events and earthquake activity from Lake Iseo (Southern Alps, Italy), Holocene, 22, 749–760, 2012.
Lionello, P., Abrantes, F., Congedi, L., Dulac, F., Gacic, M., Gomis, D., Goodess, C., Hoff, H., Kutiel, H., Luterbacher, J., Planton, S., Reale, M., Schröder, K., Struglia, M. V., Toreti, A., Tsimplis, M., Ulbrich, U., and Xoplaki, E.: Introduction: Mediterranean Climate: Background Information, edited by: Lionello, P., The Climate of the Mediterranean Region, From the Past to the Future, Amsterdam, Elsevier, Netherlands, XXXV–lXXX, ISBN: 9780124160422, 2012.
Marchi, L., Borga, M., Preciso, E., and Gaume E.: Characterisation of selected extreme flash floods in Europe and implications for flood risk management, J. Hydrol., 394, 118–133, 2010.
Marco, S., Stein, M., Agnon, A., and Ron, H.: Long-term earthquake clustering: A 50,000 year paleoseismic record in the Dead Sea Graben, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 101, 6179–6191, 1996.
Mercalli, L., Cat Berro, D., Montuschi, S., Castallano, C., Ratti, M., Di Napoli, G., Mortara, G., and Guidani, N.: Atlante climatico della Valle d'Aosta, Societa Meteorolgica Subalpina, Torino, 2003.
Migowski, C., Agnon, A., Bookman, R., Negendank, J. F. W., and Stein, M.: Recurrence pattern of Holocene earthquakes along the Dead Sea transform revealed by varve-counting and radiocarbon dating of lacustrine sediments, Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 222, 301–314, 2004.
Moernaut, J., Van Daele, M., Heirman, K., Fontijn, K., Strasser, M., Pino, M., Urrutia, R., and De Batist, M.: Lacustrine turbidites as a tool for quantitative earthquake reconstruction: New evidence for a variable rupture mode in south central Chile, J. Geophys. Res.-Sol. Ea., 119, 1607–1633, 2014.
Monecke, K., Anselmetti, F. S., Becker, A., Sturm, M., and Giardini, D.: The record of historic earthquakes in lake sediments of Central Switzerland, Tectonophysics, 394, 21–40, 2004.
Morgenstern, N. R.: Submarine Slumping and Initiation of Turbidity Currents, edited by: Richards, A. F., 189–220, Mar. Geotechnique UP, Urbana, Ill, 1967.
Mulder, T. and Chapron, E.: Flood deposits in continental and marine environments: Character and significance, in: Sediment Transfer From Shelf to Deep Water–Revisiting the Delivery System RM, edited by: Zavala, S. C., AAPG Stud. Geol., 61, 1–30, 2011.
Mulder, T. and Cochonat, P.: Classification of offshore mass movements, J. Sediment. Res., 66, 43–57, 1996.
Munich Re Group: Annual review: natural catastrophes 2002, Münich Re Group, Münich, p. 62, 2003.
Passega, R.: Grain-size representation by CM patterns as a geological tool, J. Sediment. Petrol., 34, 830–847, 1964.
Petersen, J., Wilhelm, B., Revel, M., Rolland, Y., Crouzet, C., Arnaud, F., Brisset, E., Chaumillon, E., and Magand, O.: Sediments of Lake Vens (SW European Alps, France) record large-magnitude earthquake events, J. Paleolimnol., 51, 343–355, 2014.
Renberg, I., Bindler, R., and Bränvall, M. L.: Using the historical atmospheric lead-deposition record as a chronological marker in sediment deposits in Europe, Holocene, 11, 511–516, 2001.
Ratto, S., Bonetto, F., and Comoglio, C.: The October 2000 flooding in Valle d'Aosta (Italy): Event description and land planning measures for the risk mitigation, International Journal of River Basin Management, 1, 105–116, 2003.
Ratzov, G., Cattaneo, A., Babonneau, N., Déverchère, J., Yelles, K., Bracene, R., and Courboulex, F.: Holocene turbidites record earthquake supercycles at a slow-rate plate boundary, Geology, 43, 331–334, 2015.
Rizza, M., Ritz, J. F., Braucher, R., Vassallo, R., Prentice, C., Mahan, S., and Demberel, S.: Slip rate and slip magnitudes of past earthquakes along the Bogd left-lateral strike-slip fault (Mongolia), Geophys. J. Int., 186, 897–927, 2011.
Rodriguez-Pascua, M. A., Garduno-Monroy, V. H., Israde-Alcantara, I., and Pérez-Lopez, R.: Estimation of the paleoepicentral area from the spatial gradient of deformation in lacustrine seismites (Tierras Blancas Basin, Mexico), Quat. Int., 219, 66–78, 2010.
Schiefer, E., Gilbert, R., and Hassan, M. A.: A lake sediment-based proxy of floods in the Rocky Mountain Front Ranges, Canada, J. Paleolimnol., 45, 137–149, 2011.
Schillereff, D. N., Chiverrell, R. C., Macdonald, N., and Hooke, J. M.: Flood stratigraphies in lake sediments: A review, Earth-Sci. Rev., 135, 17–37, 2014.
Schillereff, D. N., Chiverrell, R. C., Macdonald, N., and Hooke, J. M.: Hydrological thresholds and basin control over paleoflood records in lakes, Geology, 44, 43–46, 2016.
Schmidt, S., Howa, H., Diallo, A., Martín, J., Cremer, M., Duros, P., Fontanier, C., Deflandre, B., Metzger, E., and Mulder, T.: Recent sediment transport and deposition in the Cap-Ferret Canyon, South-East margin of Bay of Biscay, Deep Sea Research II, 104, 134–144, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.06.004, 2014.
Schnellmann, M., Anselmetti, F. S., Giardini, D., and McKenzie, J. A.: Mass-movement-induced fold-and-thrust belt structures in unconsolidated sediments in Lake Lucerne (Switzerland), Sedimentology, 52, 271–289, 2005.
Scotti, O., Baumont, D., Quenet, G., and Levret, A.: The French macroseismic database SISFRANCE: Objectives, results and perspectives, Ann. Geophys., 47, 571–581, 2004.
Shiki, T., Kumon, F., Inouchi, Y., Kontani, Y., Sakamoto, T., Tateishi, M., and Fukuyama, K.: Sedimentary features of the seismo-turbidites, Lake Biwa, Japan, Sediment. Geol., 135, 37–50, 2000.
Simonneau, A., Chapron, E., Vannière, B., Wirth, S. B., Gilli, A., Di Giovanni, C., Anselmetti, F. S., Desmet, M., and Magny, M.: Mass-movement and flood-induced deposits in Lake Ledro, southern Alps, Italy: implications for Holocene palaeohydrology and natural hazards, Clim. Past, 9, 825–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-825-2013, 2013.
Støren, E. N., Olaf Dahl, S., Nesje, A., and Paasche, Ø.: Identifying the sedimentary imprint of high-frequency Holocene river floods in lake sediments: development and application of a new method, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 29, 3021–3033, 2010.
Strasser, M., Anselmetti, F. S., Donat, F., Giardini, D., and Schnellmann, M.: Magnitudes and source areas of large prehistoric northern Alpine earthquakes revealed by slope failures in lakes, Geology, 12, 1005–1008, 2006.
Strasser, M., Hilbe, M., and Anselmetti, F. S.: Mapping basin-wide subaquatic slope failure susceptibility as a tool to assess regional seismic and tsunami hazards, Mar. Geophys. Res., 32, 331–347, 2011.
Strasser, M., Monecke, K., Schnellmann, M., and Anselmetti, F. S.: Lake sediments as natural seismographs: A compiled record of Late Quaternary earthquakes in Central Switzerland and its implication for Alpine deformation, Sedimentology, 60, 319–341, 2013.
Sturm, M. and Matter, A.: Turbidites and varves in Lake Brienz (Switzerland): Deposition of clastic detritus by density currents, in: Modern and Ancient Lake Sediments, edited by: Matter, A. and Tucker, M. E., Int. Assoc. Sedimentol. Spec. Publ., 2, 147–168, 1978.
Van Daele, M., Moernaut, J., Doom, L. , Boes, E. , Fontijn, K., Heirman, K., Vandoorne,W., Hebbeln, D., Pino, M., Urrutia, R., Brümmer, R., and De Batist, M.: A comparison of the sedimentary records of the 1960 and 2010 great Chilean earthquakes in 17 lakes: Implications for quantitative lacustrine palaeoseismology, Sedimentology, 62, 1466–1496, 2015.
Vannière, B., Magny, M., Joannin, S., Simonneau, A., Wirth, S. B., Hamann, Y., Chapron, E., Gilli, A., Desmet, M., and Anselmetti, F. S.: Orbital changes, variation in solar activity and increased anthropogenic activities: controls on the Holocene flood frequency in the Lake Ledro area, Northern Italy, Clim. Past, 9, 1193–1209, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1193-2013, 2013.
Weiss, D., Shotyk, W., Kramers, J. D., and Gloor, M.: Sphagnum mosses as archives of recent and past atmospheric lead deposition in Switzerland, Atmos. Environ., 33, 3751–3763, 1999.
Wiemer, G., Moernaut, J., Stark, N., Kempf, P., De Batptist, M., Pino, M., Urrutia, R., Ladrón de Guevara, B., Strasser, M., and Kopf, A.: The role of sediment composition and behavior under dynamic loading conditions on slope failure initiation: A study of a subaqueous landslide in earthquake-prone South-Central Chile, Int. J. Earth Sci., 104, 1439–1457, 2015.
Wilhelm, B., Arnaud, F., Sabatier, P., Crouzet, C., Brisset, E., Chaumillon, E., Disnar, J. R., Guiter, F., Malet, E., Reyss, J. L., Tachikawa, K., Bard, E., and Delannoy, J. J.: 1400 years of extreme precipitation patterns over the Mediterranean French Alps and possible forcing mechanisms, Quaternary Res., 78, 1–12, 2012a.
Wilhelm, B., Arnaud, F., Enters, D., Allignol, F., Legaz, A., Magand, O., Revillon, S., Giguet-Covex, C., and Malet, E.: Does global warming favour the occurrence of extreme floods in European Alps? First evidences from a NW Alps proglacial lake sediment record, Clim. Change, 113, 63–581, 2012b.
Wilhelm, B., Arnaud, F., Sabatier, P., Magand, O., Chapron, E., Courp, T., Tachikawa, K., Fanget, B., Malet, E., Pignol, C., Bard, E., and Delannoy, J. J.: Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the NW European Alps, J. Quaternary Sci., 28, 189–199, 2013.
Wilhelm, B., Sabatier, P., and Arnaud, F.: Is a regional flood signal reproducible from lake sediments?, Sedimentology, 62, 1103–1117, 2015.
Wilhelm, B., Vogel, H., Crouzet, C., Etienne, D., and Anselmetti, F. S.: Frequency and intensity of palaeofloods at the interface of Atlantic and Mediterranean climate domains, Clim. Past, 12, 299–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-299-2016, 2016a.
Wilhelm, B., Nomade, J., Crouzet, C., Litty, C., Sabatier, P., Belle, S., and Anselmetti, F. S.: Quantified sensitivity of small lake sediments to record historic earthquakes: Implications for paleoseismology, J. Geophys. Res.-Earth, 121, 2–16, 2016b.
Wirth, S. B., Gilli, A., Simonneau, A., Ariztegui, D., Vannière, B., Glur, L., Chapron, E., Magny, M., and Anselmetti, F. S.: A 2000-year long seasonal record of floods in the southern European Alps, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4025–4029, 2013.
Short summary
We explored the potential of a sedimentary sequence in Valle d'Aosta (Northern Italy) as a natural archive of hazards. Our results suggest that this sequence is regionally the most sensitive to earthquake shaking with the record of 8 earthquakes over the last ~270 years and that it well represents the regional and (multi-)decennial variability of Mediterranean summer–autumn floods. Hence, this sequence offers a great potential to extend chronicles of regional floods and earthquakes back in time.
We explored the potential of a sedimentary sequence in Valle d'Aosta (Northern Italy) as a...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint