Articles | Volume 17, issue 2
Research article 28 Feb 2017
Research article | 28 Feb 2017
Quantifying the effect of forests on frequency and intensity of rockfalls
Christine Moos et al.
No articles found.
Markus Stoffel, Christophe Corona, Francis Ludlow, Michael Sigl, Heli Huhtamaa, Emmanuel Garnier, Samuli Helama, Sébastien Guillet, Arlene Crampsie, Katrin Kleemann, Chantal Camenisch, Joseph McConnell, and Chaochao Gao
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Preprint under review for CPShort summary
The mid-17th century saw several volcanic eruptions, deteriorating climate, political stability and famine in Europe, China and Japan. We analyze impacts of the eruptions on climate, but also study the socio-political context in which they occurred. We show that an unambiguous distinction of volcanic cooling or wetting from natural climate variability is not straightforward. It also shows that political instability, poor harvest and famine can not only be attributed to volcanic climatic impacts.
Helen Mackay, Gill Plunkett, Britta Jensen, Thomas Aubry, Christophe Corona, Woon Mi Kim, Matthew Toohey, Michael Sigl, Markus Stoffel, Kevin Anchukaitis, Christoph Raible, Matthew Bolton, Joesph Manning, Timothy Newfield, Nicola Di Cosmo, Francis Ludlow, Conor Kostick, Zhen Yang, Lisa Coyle McClung, Matthew Amesbury, Alistair Monteath, Paul Hughes, Pete Langdon, Dan Charman, Robert Booth, Kimberley Davies, Antony Blundell, and Graeme Swindles
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Preprint under review for CPShort summary
We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant northern hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal reponse is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption, even when it is precisely dated.
Heli Huhtamaa, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Preprint under review for CPShort summary
Natural proxy data and written sources reveal that large 17th century eruptions had considerable climatic, agricultural and socioeconomic impacts far away from the eruption locations. Yet, micro-regional investigation shows that the eruption-climate-society causalities were commonly indirect, as various factors, like agro-ecosystem, resource availability, institutions and social networks, dictated how the volcanic cold pulses and related crop failures materialized on the grassroots level.
Sam White, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Davide Zanchettin, Heli Huhtamaa, Dagomar Degroot, Markus Stoffel, and Christophe Corona
Clim. Past Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for CPShort summary
This study examines whether the Huaynaputina volcano eruption in 1600 triggered persistent cooling the North Atlantic region by comparing paleoclimate simulations and climate reconstructions from natural proxies and historical written sources. It finds that the reconstructions are consistent with, but do not necessarily support, an eruption-triggered mechanism for persistent cooling. The study also considers the historical societal impacts of climatic change during this period.
Guoxiong Zheng, Martin Mergili, Adam Emmer, Simon Allen, Anming Bao, Hao Guo, and Markus Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 15, 3159–3180,Short summary
This paper reports on a recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event that occurred on 26 June 2020 in Tibet, China. We find that this event was triggered by a debris landslide from a steep lateral moraine. As the relationship between the long-term evolution of the lake and its likely landslide trigger revealed by a time series of satellite images, this case provides strong evidence that it can be plausibly linked to anthropogenic climate change.
Feiko Bernard van Zadelhoff, Adel Albaba, Denis Cohen, Chris Phillips, Bettina Schaefli, Lucas Karel Agnes Dorren, and Massimiliano Schwarz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript under review for NHESSShort summary
Shallow landslides pose a risk to people, property and infrastructure. Assesment of this hazard and the impact of protective measures can reduce losses. We developed a model (SlideforMap) that can assess the shallow landslide risk on a regional scale for specific rainfall events. Trees are an effective and cheap protective measure on a regional scale. Our model can assess their hazard reduction down to the individual tree level.
Peter M. Abbott, Gill Plunkett, Christophe Corona, Nathan J. Chellman, Joseph R. McConnell, John R. Pilcher, Markus Stoffel, and Michael Sigl
Clim. Past, 17, 565–585,Short summary
Volcanic eruptions are a key source of climatic variability, and greater understanding of their past influence will increase the accuracy of future projections. We use volcanic ash from a 1477 CE Icelandic eruption in a Greenlandic ice core as a temporal fix point to constrain the timing of two eruptions in the 1450s CE and their climatic impact. Despite being the most explosive Icelandic eruption in the last 1200 years, the 1477 CE event had a limited impact on Northern Hemisphere climate.
Andreas Kääb, Tazio Strozzi, Tobias Bolch, Rafael Caduff, Håkon Trefall, Markus Stoffel, and Alexander Kokarev
The Cryosphere, 15, 927–949,Short summary
We present a map of rock glacier motion over parts of the northern Tien Shan and time series of surface speed for six of them over almost 70 years. This is by far the most detailed investigation of this kind available for central Asia. We detect a 2- to 4-fold increase in rock glacier motion between the 1950s and present, which we attribute to atmospheric warming. Relative to the shrinking glaciers in the region, this implies increased importance of periglacial sediment transport.
Michael Fehlmann, Mario Rohrer, Annakaisa von Lerber, and Markus Stoffel
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 4683–4698,Short summary
The Thies disdrometer is used to monitor precipitation intensity and its phase and thus may provide valuable information for the management of meteorological and hydrological risks. In this study, we characterize biases of this instrument using common reference instruments at a pre-alpine study site in Switzerland. We find a systematic underestimation of liquid precipitation amounts and suggest possible reasons for and corrections to this bias and relate these findings to other study sites.
Adel Albaba, Massimiliano Schwarz, Corinna Wendeler, Bernard Loup, and Luuk Dorren
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 2339–2358,Short summary
We present a discrete-element-based model which is adapted and used to produce hillslope debris flows. The model parameters were calibrated using field experiments, and a very good agreement was found in terms of pressure and flow velocity. Calibration results suggested that a link might exist between the model parameters and the initial conditions of the granular material. However, to better understand this link, further investigations are required by conducting detailed lab-scale experiments.
Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Marina V. Fonti, Matthias Saurer, Sébastien Guillet, Christophe Corona, Patrick Fonti, Vladimir S. Myglan, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Oksana V. Naumova, Dmitriy V. Ovchinnikov, Alexander V. Shashkin, Irina P. Panyushkina, Ulf Büntgen, Malcolm K. Hughes, Eugene A. Vaganov, Rolf T. W. Siegwolf, and Markus Stoffel
Clim. Past, 15, 685–700,Short summary
We present a unique dataset of multiple tree-ring and stable isotope parameters, representing temperature-sensitive Siberian ecotones, to assess climatic impacts after six large stratospheric volcanic eruptions at 535, 540, 1257, 1640, 1815, and 1991 CE. Besides the well-documented effects of temperature derived from tree-ring width and latewood density, stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose provide information about moisture and sunshine duration changes after the events.
Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Alexandre Badoux, Dieter Rickenmann, Martin Böckli, Salome Schläfli, Nicolas Steeb, Markus Stoffel, and Christian Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1115–1137,
Martin Beniston, Daniel Farinotti, Markus Stoffel, Liss M. Andreassen, Erika Coppola, Nicolas Eckert, Adriano Fantini, Florie Giacona, Christian Hauck, Matthias Huss, Hendrik Huwald, Michael Lehning, Juan-Ignacio López-Moreno, Jan Magnusson, Christoph Marty, Enrique Morán-Tejéda, Samuel Morin, Mohamed Naaim, Antonello Provenzale, Antoine Rabatel, Delphine Six, Johann Stötter, Ulrich Strasser, Silvia Terzago, and Christian Vincent
The Cryosphere, 12, 759–794,Short summary
This paper makes a rather exhaustive overview of current knowledge of past, current, and future aspects of cryospheric issues in continental Europe and makes a number of reflections of areas of uncertainty requiring more attention in both scientific and policy terms. The review paper is completed by a bibliography containing 350 recent references that will certainly be of value to scholars engaged in the fields of glacier, snow, and permafrost research.
M. Jochner, J. M. Turowski, A. Badoux, M. Stoffel, and C. Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 311–320,Short summary
The export of coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) from mountain catchments seems to be strongly linked to rising discharge, but the mechanism leading to this is unclear. We show that log jams in a steep headwater stream are an effective barrier for CPOM export. Exceptional discharge events play a dual role: First, they destroy existing jams, releasing stored material. Second, they intensify channel--hillslope coupling, thereby recruiting logs to the channel, around which new jams can form.
H. Frey, H. Machguth, M. Huss, C. Huggel, S. Bajracharya, T. Bolch, A. Kulkarni, A. Linsbauer, N. Salzmann, and M. Stoffel
The Cryosphere, 8, 2313–2333,Short summary
Existing methods (area–volume relations, a slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models) are used to estimate the ice reserves stored in Himalayan–Karakoram glaciers. Resulting volumes range from 2955–4737km³. Results from the ice-thickness distribution models agree well with local measurements; volume estimates from area-related relations exceed the estimates from the other approaches. Evidence on the effect of the selected method on results is provided.
Related subject area
Landslides and Debris Flows HazardsBrief communication: The role of geophysical imaging in local landslide early warning systemsEvaluating landslide response in a seismic and rainfall regime: a case study from the SE Carpathians, RomaniaMain Ethiopian Rift landslides formed in contrasting geological settings and climatic conditionsInvestigating causal factors of shallow landslides in grassland regions of SwitzerlandDebris flow event on Osorno volcano, Chile, during summer 2017: new interpretations for chain processes in the southern AndesIntegrating empirical models and satellite radar can improve landslide detection for emergency responseA modeling methodology to study the tributary-junction alluvial fan connectivity during a debris flow eventEvaluating methods for debris-flow prediction based on rainfall in an Alpine catchmentOptimizing and validating the Gravitational Process Path model for regional debris-flow runout modellingEvaluation of filtering methods for use on high frequency measurements of landslide displacementsGeographic-information-system-based topographic reconstruction and geomechanical modelling of the Köfels rockslideSpatiotemporal clustering of flash floods in a changing climate (China, 1950–2015)Atmospheric triggering conditions and climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan at the beginning of the 21st centuryAutomated landslide detection outperforms manual mapping for several recent large earthquakesAnalysis of meteorological parameters triggering rainfall-induced landslide: a review of 70 years in ValtellinaLandslide risk management analysis on expansive residential areas – case study of La Marina (Alicante, Spain)Uncertainty analysis of a rainfall threshold estimate for stony debris flow based on the backward dynamical approachControls on the formation and size of potential landslide dams and dammed lakes in the Austrian AlpsThe role of geomorphology, rainfall and soil moisture in the occurrence of landslides triggered by 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut in the PhilippinesInvited perspectives: Landslide populations – can they be predicted?Glacier detachments and rock-ice avalanches in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan (1973–2019)Exploring the potential relationship between the occurrence of debris flow and landslidesCascade effect of rock bridge failure in planar rock slides: numerical test with a distinct element codeDebrisFlow Predictor: an agent-based runout program for shallow landslidesRapid assessment of urban mega-gully and landslide events with Structure-from-Motion techniques validates link to water resources infrastructure failuresLeveraging time series analysis of radar coherence and normalized difference vegetation index ratios to characterize pre-failure activity of the Mud Creek landslide, CaliforniaA model for interpreting the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, ChinaNepalese landslide information system (NELIS): a conceptual framework for a web-based geographical information system for enhanced landslide risk management in NepalModelling landslide hazards under global changes: the case of a Pyrenean valleyDebris flows recorded in the Moscardo catchment (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019The potential of Smartstone probes in landslide experiments: how to read motion dataINSPIRE standards as a framework for artificial intelligence applications: a landslide exampleNew global characterisation of landslide exposureSemi-empirical prediction of dam height and stability of dams formed by rock slope failures in NorwayDetecting precursors of an imminent landslide along the Jinsha RiverA systematic exploration of satellite radar coherence methods for rapid landslide detectionIncluding informal housing in slope stability analysis – an application to a data-scarce location in the humid tropicsStability evaluation and potential failure process of rock slopes characterized by non-persistent fracturesDeriving rainfall thresholds for landsliding at the regional scale: daily and hourly resolutions, normalisation, and antecedent rainfallShear rate effect on the residual strength characteristics of saturated loess in naturally drained ring shear testsAssessment of the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslidesThe mudflow disaster at Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia: understandings and insights derived from numerical simulation and postevent field surveysRainfall and rockfalls in the Canary Islands: assessing a seasonal linkTiming, drivers and impacts of the historic Masiere di Vedana rock avalanche (Belluno Dolomites, NE Italy)Sensitivity and identifiability of rheological parameters in debris flow modelingAssessing the annual risk of vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide: a case study on Kennedy Road in Wan Chai, Hong KongTopographic uncertainty quantification for flow-like landslide models via stochastic simulationsGeo-climatic hazards in the eastern subtropical Andes: distribution, climate drivers and trendsA multivariate statistical method for susceptibility analysis of debris flow in southwestern ChinaAnalysis of the instability conditions and failure mode of a special type of translational landslide using long-term monitoring data: a case study of the Wobaoshi landslide (in Bazhong, China)
Jim S. Whiteley, Arnaud Watlet, J. Michael Kendall, and Jonathan E. Chambers
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3863–3871,Short summary
This work summarises the contribution of geophysical imaging methods to establishing and operating local landslide early warning systems, demonstrated through a conceptual framework. We identify developments in geophysical monitoring equipment, the spatiotemporal resolutions of these approaches and methods to translate geophysical to geotechnical information as the primary benefits that geophysics brings to slope-scale early warning.
Vipin Kumar, Léna Cauchie, Anne-Sophie Mreyen, Mihai Micu, and Hans-Balder Havenith
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3767–3788,Short summary
The SE Carpathians belong to one of the most active seismic regions of Europe. In recent decades, extreme rainfall events have also been common. These natural processes result in frequent landslides, particularly of a debris flow type. Despite such regimes, the region has been little explored to understand the response of the landslides in seismic and rainfall conditions. This study attempts to fill this gap by evaluating landslide responses under seismic and extreme-rainfall regimes.
Karel Martínek, Kryštof Verner, Tomáš Hroch, Leta A. Megerssa, Veronika Kopačková, David Buriánek, Ameha Muluneh, Radka Kalinová, Miheret Yakob, and Muluken Kassa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3465–3487,Short summary
This study combines field geological and geohazard mapping with remote sensing data. Geostatistical analysis evaluated precipitation, land use, vegetation density, rock mass strength, and tectonics. Contrasting tectonic and climatic setting of the Main Ethiopian Rift and uplifted Ethiopian Plateau have major impacts on the distribution of landslides.
Lauren Zweifel, Maxim Samarin, Katrin Meusburger, and Christine Alewell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3421–3437,Short summary
Mountainous grassland areas can be severely affected by soil erosion, such as by shallow landslides. With an automated mapping approach we are able to locate shallow-landslide sites on aerial images for 10 different study sites across Swiss mountain regions covering a total of 315 km2. Using a statistical model we identify important explanatory variables for shallow-landslide occurrence for the individual sites as well as across all regions, which highlight slope, aspect and terrain roughness.
Ivo Janos Fustos-Toribio, Bastian Morales-Vargas, Marcelo Somos-Valenzuela, Pablo Moreno-Yaeger, Ramiro Muñoz-Ramirez, Ines Rodriguez Araneda, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029,Short summary
Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
Katy Burrows, David Milledge, Richard J. Walters, and Dino Bellugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2993–3014,Short summary
When cloud cover obscures optical satellite imagery, there are two options remaining for generating information on earthquake-triggered landslide locations: (1) models which predict landslide locations based on, e.g., slope and ground shaking data and (2) satellite radar data, which penetrates cloud cover and is sensitive to landslides. Here we show that the two approaches can be combined to give a more consistent and more accurate model of landslide locations after an earthquake.
Alex Garcés, Gerardo Zegers, Albert Cabré, Germán Aguilar, Aldo Tamburrino, and Santiagio Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
We propose a workflow to model the response of an alluvial fan located in the Atacama Desert, during an extreme storm event. For this alluvial fan, five different deposits were identified and associated with different debris flow surges. Using a commercial software, our workflow concatenates these surges into one model. This study depicts the significance of the mechanical classification of debris flows to reproduce how an alluvial fan controls the tributary-river junction connectivity.
Jacob Hirschberg, Alexandre Badoux, Brian W. McArdell, Elena Leonarduzzi, and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2773–2789,Short summary
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
Jason Goetz, Robin Kohrs, Eric Parra Hormazábal, Manuel Bustos Morales, María Belén Araneda Riquelme, Cristián Henríquez, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2543–2562,Short summary
Debris flows are fast-moving landslides that can cause incredible destruction to lives and property. Using the Andes of Santiago as an example, we developed tools to finetune and validate models predicting likely runout paths over large regions. We anticipate that our automated approach that links the open-source R software with SAGA-GIS will make debris-flow runout simulation more readily accessible and thus enable researchers and spatial planners to improve regional-scale hazard assessments.
Sohrab Sharifi, Michael Hendry, Renato Macciotta, and Trevor Evans
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
This study is devoted to comparing the effectiveness of three different filters for noise reduction of instruments. It was observed that the Savitzky-Golay and Gaussian-weighted moving average filters outperform the simple moving average. Application of these two filters in real-time landslide monitoring leads to timely detection of acceleration moment and better preservation of information regarding displacement and velocity.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483,Short summary
The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Nan Wang, Luigi Lombardo, Marj Tonini, Weiming Cheng, Liang Guo, and Junnan Xiong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2109–2124,Short summary
This study exploits 66 years of flash flood disasters across China. The conclusions are as follows. The clustering procedure highlights distinct spatial and temporal patterns of flash flood disasters at different scales. There are distinguished seasonal, yearly and even long-term persistent flash flood behaviors of flash flood disasters. Finally, the decreased duration of clusters in the recent period indicates a possible activation induced by short-duration extreme rainfall events.
Xun Wang, Marco Otto, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2125–2144,Short summary
We applied a high-resolution, gridded atmospheric data set combined with landslide inventories to investigate the atmospheric triggers, define triggering thresholds, and characterize the climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Our results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering and prediction in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as the added value of climatic disposition derived from atmospheric triggering conditions.
David Graham Milledge, Dino G. Bellugi, Jack Watt, and Alexander Logan Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Earthquakes can trigger thousands of landslides, causing severe and widespread damage. Efforts to understand what controls these landslides rely heavily on costly and time-consuming manual mapping from satellite imagery. We developed a new method that automatically detects landslides triggered by an earthquake using thousands of free satellite images. We found that in the majority of cases, it was better able to identify the locations of landslides than the manual maps that we tested it against.
Andrea Abbate, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2041–2058,Short summary
In this paper the relation between the intensity of meteorological events and the magnitude of triggered geo-hydrological issues was examined. A back analysis was developed across a region of the central Alps. The meteorological triggers were interpreted using two approaches: the first using local rain gauge data and a new one considering meteorological reanalysis maps. The results obtained were compared and elaborated for defining a magnitude of each geo-hydrological event.
Isidro Cantarino, Miguel Angel Carrion, Jose Sergio Palencia-Jimenez, and Víctor Martínez-Ibáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1847–1866,Short summary
Risk ratio (RR), developed in this paper, stands out as a robust indicator for finding the relationship between residential construction and its associated landslide risk. It proved especially useful for municipalities on the Mediterranean coast, since it differentiates between those that take on a higher risk and those that do not. Our research establishes valuable criteria to find how suitable a specific local entity's risk management is and explore what causes the incidence of landslide risk.
Marta Martinengo, Daniel Zugliani, and Giorgio Rosatti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1769–1784,Short summary
Rainfall thresholds are relations between rainfall intensity and duration on which the forecast of the possible occurrence of a debris flow can be based. To check the robustness of a physically based stony debris flow rainfall threshold, in this work we developed a procedure to estimate the effects of various sources of error on the determination of the threshold parameters. Results show that these effects are limited and therefore show the good robustness of the threshold estimate.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Jörg Robl, Günther Prasicek, Stefan Hergarten, Daniel Hölbling, Lorena Abad, and Zahra Dabiri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1615–1637,Short summary
This study relies on topography to simulate the origin and displacement of potentially river-blocking landslides. It highlights a continuous range of simulated landslide dams that go unnoticed in the field due to their small scale. The computation results show that landslide-dammed lake volume can be estimated from upstream drainage area and landslide volume, thus enabling an efficient hazard assessment of possible landslide-dammed lake volume – and flooding magnitude in case of dam failure.
Clàudia Abancó, Georgina L. Bennett, Adrian J. Matthews, Mark Anthony M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1531–1550,Short summary
In 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut triggered thousands of landslides in the Itogon region (Philippines). An inventory of 1101 landslides revealed that landslides mostly occurred in slopes covered by wooded grassland in clayey materials, predominantly facing E-SE. Satellite rainfall and soil moisture data associated with Typhoon Mangkhut and the previous months in 2018 were analyzed. Results showed that landslides occurred during high-intensity rainfall that coincided with the highest soil moisture values.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1467–1471,Short summary
This is a perspective based on personal experience on whether a large number of landslides caused by a single trigger (e.g. an earthquake, an intense rainfall, a rapid snowmelt event) or by multiple triggers in a period can be predicted, in space and time, considering the consequences of slope failures.
Silvan Leinss, Enrico Bernardini, Mylène Jacquemart, and Mikhail Dokukin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1409–1429,Short summary
A cluster of 13 large mass flow events including five detachments of entire valley glaciers was observed in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan, in 1973–2019. The local clustering provides additional understanding of the influence of temperature, seismic activity, and geology. Most events occurred in summer of years with mean annual air temperatures higher than the past 46-year trend. The glaciers rest on weak bedrock and are rather short, making them sensitive to friction loss due to meltwater.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Donghe Ma, and Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1247–1262,Short summary
In previous studies of landslide susceptibility mapping, one inventory is for one kind of landslide. However, this causes some problems for prevention and management. This study aims to map two kinds of landslides and use the results on the same map to explore the potential relationship. Through superimposition of two zoning maps, this provides a new way to evaluate the disaster chain and provides a valuable reference for land use planners.
Adeline Delonca, Yann Gunzburger, and Thierry Verdel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1263–1278,Short summary
Rockfalls are a major sources of danger, particularly along transportation routes. Thus, the assessment of their occurrence is a major challenge for risk management. One interesting factor involved in the occurrence of an event is the failure mechanism of rock bridges along the potential failure plane. This work proposes to study the phenomenology of this failure considering numerical modelling. The influence of rock bridge position in regard to the rockfall failure mode is highlighted.
Richard Guthrie and Andrew Befus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1029–1049,Short summary
In order to address a need for a debris flow or debris avalanche model that can be applied regionally with relatively few inputs, we developed and present herein an agent-based landslide-simulation model called DebrisFlow Predictor. DebrisFlow Predictor is a fully predictive, probabilistic debris flow runout model. It produces realistic results and can be applied easily to entire regions. We hope that the model will provide useful insight into hazard and risk assessments where it is applicable.
Napoleon Gudino-Elizondo, Matthew W. Brand, Trent W. Biggs, Alvaro Gomez-Gutierrez, Eddy Langendoen, Ronald Bingner, Yongping Yuan, and Brett F. Sanders
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss.,
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESSShort summary
Mass movement hazards in the form of gullies and landsides pose significant risks in urbanizing areas, yet are poorly documented. This paper presents observations and modeling of mass movement events over a 5-year period in Tijuana, Mexico. Three major events were observed, and all were linked to water resources infrastructure failures (WRIFs), namely leaks and breaks in water supply pipes. Modeling shows that WRIF-based erosion events are significant with respect to the total sediment budget.
Mylène Jacquemart and Kristy Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 629–642,Short summary
We used interferometric radar coherence – a data quality indicator typically used to assess the reliability of radar interferometry data – to document the destabilization of the Mud Creek landslide in California, 5 months prior to its catastrophic failure. We calculated a time series of coherence on the slide relative to the surrounding hillslope and suggest that this easy-to-compute metric might be useful for assessing the stability of a hillslope.
Zongxing Zou, Huiming Tang, Robert E. Criss, Xinli Hu, Chengren Xiong, Qiong Wu, and Yi Yuan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 517–532,Short summary
The evolutionary trend of deforming landslides and feasible treatments for huge reservoir landslides needs further study. A geomechanical model is presented to elucidate the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides. The deformation process of Shuping landslide is well interpreted by the geomechanical model. A successful engineering treatment is applied in treating the Shuping landslide, providing references for treating other huge landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.
Sansar Raj Meena, Florian Albrecht, Daniel Hölbling, Omid Ghorbanzadeh, and Thomas Blaschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 301–316,Short summary
Comprehensive and sustainable landslide management, including identification of landslide-susceptible areas, requires a lot of organisations and people to collaborate efficiently. In this study, we propose a concept for a system that provides users with a platform to share the location of landslide events for further collaboration in Nepal. The system can be beneficial for specifying potentially risky regions and consequently, the development of risk mitigation strategies at the local level.
Séverine Bernardie, Rosalie Vandromme, Yannick Thiery, Thomas Houet, Marine Grémont, Florian Masson, Gilles Grandjean, and Isabelle Bouroullec
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 147–169,Short summary
The present study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate change, based on scenarios, on landslide hazards in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100. The results demonstrate the influence of land cover on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. Climate change may have a significant impact because of the increase of the soil water content. The results indicate that the occurrence of landslide hazards in the future is expected to increase.
Lorenzo Marchi, Federico Cazorzi, Massimo Arattano, Sara Cucchiaro, Marco Cavalli, and Stefano Crema
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 87–97,Short summary
Debris-flow research requires experimental data that are difficult to collect because of the intrinsic characteristics of these hazardous processes. This paper presents debris-flow data recorded in the Moscardo Torrent (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019. In this time interval, 30 debris flows were observed. The paper presents data on triggering rainfall, flow velocity, peak discharge, and volume for the monitored hydrographs.
J. Bastian Dost, Oliver Gronz, Markus C. Casper, and Andreas Krein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3501–3519,Short summary
We show the potential to observe the unconfined internal-motion behaviour of single clasts in landslides using a wireless sensor measuring acceleration and rotation. The probe's dimensions are 10 mm × 55 mm. It measures up to 16 g and 2000° s−1 with a 100 Hz sampling rate. From the data, we derive transport mode, velocity, displacement and 3D trajectories of several probes. Results are verified by high-speed image analysis and laser distance measurements.
Gioachino Roberti, Jacob McGregor, Sharon Lam, David Bigelow, Blake Boyko, Chris Ahern, Victoria Wang, Bryan Barnhart, Clinton Smyth, David Poole, and Stephen Richard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3455–3483,Short summary
We show how INSPIRE, the European initiative to standardize data across borders, can be used to produce explainable AI-based applications. We do so by producing landslide susceptibility maps for the Veneto region in Italy. EU countries are mandated by law to implement the INSPIRE data framework by 2021, but they are aligning and serving INSPIRE data at a slow pace. Our paper can provide a boost to INSPIRE implementation as it shows the value of standardized data.
Robert Emberson, Dalia Kirschbaum, and Thomas Stanley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3413–3424,Short summary
Landslides cause thousands of fatalities and cost billions of dollars of damage worldwide every year, but different inventories of landslide events can have widely diverging completeness. This can lead to spatial biases in our understanding of the impacts. Here we use a globally homogeneous model of landslide hazard and exposure to provide consistent estimates of where landslides are most likely to cause damage to people, roads and other critical infrastructure at 1 km resolution.
Thierry Oppikofer, Reginald L. Hermanns, Vegard U. Jakobsen, Martina Böhme, Pierrick Nicolet, and Ivanna Penna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3179–3196,Short summary
Damming of rivers is an important secondary effect of landslides due to upstream flooding and possible outburst floods in case of dam failure. For preliminary regional hazard and risk assessment of dams formed by rock slope failures in Norway, we developed semi-empirical relationships to assess the height and stability of dams based on an inventory of 69 dams formed by rock slope failures in southwestern Norway and published landslide dam inventories from other parts of the world.
Wentao Yang, Lianyou Liu, and Peijun Shi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3215–3224,Short summary
We analysed deformation of a moving slope along the Jinsha River from November 2015 to November 2019. The slope is 80 km downstream from the famous Baige landslide, which caused two mega floods affecting downstream communities. This slope was relatively stable for the first 3 years (2015–2018) but moved significantly in the last year (2018–2019). The deformation is linked to seasonal precipitation. If this slope continues to slide downwards, it may have similar impacts to the Baige landslide.
Katy Burrows, Richard J. Walters, David Milledge, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3197–3214,Short summary
Satellite radar could provide information on landslide locations within days of an earthquake or rainfall event anywhere on Earth, but until now there has been a lack of systematic testing of possible radar methods, and most methods have been demonstrated using a single case study event and data from a single satellite sensor. Here we test five methods on four events, demonstrating their wide applicability and making recommendations on when different methods should be applied in the future.
Elisa Bozzolan, Elizabeth Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3161–3177,Short summary
We include informal housing in slope stability analysis, considering different slope properties and precipitation events (including climate change). The dominant failure processes are identified, and their relative role in slope failure is quantified. A new rainfall threshold is assessed for urbanised slopes. Instability
rulesare provided to recognise urbanised slopes most at risk. The methodology is suitable for regions with scarce field measurements and landslide inventories.
Wen Zhang, Jia Wang, Peihua Xu, Junqing Lou, Bo Shan, Fengyan Wang, Chen Cao, Xiaoxue Chen, and Jinsheng Que
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2921–2935,Short summary
Slope failure is extremely common in mountainous areas. Therefore, the stability and potential failure of slopes must be analysed accurately. For most fractured rock slopes, the aforementioned analyses are considerably challenging. This study aims to propose a comprehensive approach that combines three well-established methods to conduct the aformentioned analyses. Finally, the critical slip surface, factor of safety, and accumulation distance are selected for safety assurance in slope analysis.
Elena Leonarduzzi and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2905–2919,Short summary
Landslides are a natural hazard that affects alpine regions. Here we focus on rainfall-induced shallow landslides and one of the most widely used approaches for their predictions: rainfall thresholds. We design several comparisons utilizing a landslide database and rainfall records in Switzerland. We find that using daily rather than hourly rainfall might be a better option in some circumstances, and mean annual precipitation and antecedent wetness can improve predictions at the regional scale.
Baoqin Lian, Xingang Wang, Jianbing Peng, and Qiangbing Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2843–2856,
Qin Chen, Lixia Chen, Lei Gui, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, Juan Du, and Xuelian Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2547–2565,Short summary
Previous studies have focused on generalized vulnerability assessment from landslides or other types of slope failures, such as debris flow and rockfall. The proposed study establishes a three-step approach to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides. Herein, good consistency between the estimated building physical vulnerability and in-field damage evidence was found.
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Joaquín E. Oyarzún-Ulloa, Ivo J. Fustos-Toribio, Natalia Garrido-Urzua, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2319–2333,Short summary
This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which resulted from an avalanche in the Cordon Yelcho. We integrate in situ geotechnical tests and numerical modeling to model the Villa Santa Lucía mudflow event. Our results suggest that the initial soil water content is sufficient to transform the landslide and scoured soil into a mudflow. Therefore, knowing the soil characteristics is crucial to evaluating the impact of landslides in the study area.
Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Roberto Sarro, Rosa Marìa Mateos, and Maria Teresa Brunetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2307–2317,Short summary
In the Canary Islands, a link between rainfall and rockfall occurrence is found for most of the year, except for the warm season. Empirical rainfall thresholds for rockfalls are first proposed for Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and the dependence of the thresholds on the mean annual rainfall is discussed. The use of thresholds in early-warning systems might contribute to the mitigation of the rockfall hazard in the archipelago and reduce the associated risk.
Sandro Rossato, Susan Ivy-Ochs, Silvana Martin, Alfio Viganò, Christof Vockenhuber, Manuel Rigo, Giovanni Monegato, Marco De Zorzi, Nicola Surian, Paolo Campedel, and Paolo Mozzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2157–2174,Short summary
Rock avalanches are extremely dangerous, causing much damage worldwide. The
Masiere di Vedanais a rock avalanche deposit (9 km2, 170 Mm3) in NE Italy. We dated it back to late Roman to early Middle Ages. Identified drivers are the overall structural setting, exceptional rainfall events and seismic shakings. No exceptional event is required as a trigger. When dealing with heavily deformed bedrocks, especially in inhabited areas, the occurrence of a huge event like this must be considered.
Gerardo Zegers, Pablo A. Mendoza, Alex Garces, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1919–1930,Short summary
We perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of a numerical debris flow model and examine the effects of using post-event measurements on two creeks in Chile. Our results demonstrate the utility of sensitivity analysis in debris flow modeling and the benefits of post-event observations on parameter identifiability. This study provides guidance on the choice of uncertain parameters, contributing to more reliable simulations for debris flow risk assessments and land use planning.
Meng Lu, Jie Zhang, Lulu Zhang, and Limin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1833–1846,Short summary
When analyzing the risk of landslides hitting moving vehicles, the spacing between vehicles and the vehicle types on the highway can be highly uncertain. Using a highway slope case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method to assess the risk of moving vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide; the method allows for the investigation of the possible number of different types of vehicles hit by the landslide and provides a new guideline for highway slope design.
Hu Zhao and Julia Kowalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1441–1461,Short summary
We study the impact of topographic uncertainty on landslide run-out modeling using conditional and unconditional stochastic simulation. First, we propose a generic workflow and then apply it to a historic flow-like landslide. We find that topographic uncertainty can greatly affect landslide run-out modeling, depending on how well the underlying flow path is captured by topographic data. The difference between unconditional and conditional stochastic simulation is discussed in detail.
Iván Vergara, Stella M. Moreiras, Diego Araneo, and René Garreaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1353–1367,Short summary
Geo-climatic hazards usually cause large losses of human life and economic losses. As they are very susceptible to weather, in many regions of the world these hazards are changing in frequency and magnitude due to current climate change. The purpose of this paper is to understand if, in the subtropical Andes of Argentina, these phenomena are increasing or decreasing and subsequently to understand the causes of these possible changes.
Feng Ji, Zili Dai, and Renjie Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1321–1334,Short summary
Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility to debris flows in this area, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples and proposes an empirical model based on quantification theory. A total of 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.
Yimin Liu, Chenghu Wang, Guiyun Gao, Pu Wang, Zhengyang Hou, and Qisong Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1305–1319,Short summary
We considered a translational landslide exhibiting an unusual morphology, i.e., the Wobaoshi landslide. The deformation and failure mode of the plate-shaped bodies were analyzed and investigated based on numerical simulations and calculations. The monitoring data and geomechanical model proved that the accumulated water pressure in cracks causes the plate-shaped bodies to creep. Therefore, these research findings are of reference significance for the rainfall-induced translational landslides.
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The goal of this study was to quantify the effect of forests on the occurrence frequency and intensity of rockfalls. This was done based on 3-D rockfall simulations for different forest and non-forest scenarios on a virtual slope. The rockfall frequency and intensity below forested slopes is significantly reduced. Statistical models provide information on how specific forest and terrain parameters influence this reduction and they allow prediction and quantification of the forest effect.
The goal of this study was to quantify the effect of forests on the occurrence frequency and...