Articles | Volume 16, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2799-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2799-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
21 Dec 2016
Research article |
| 21 Dec 2016
Typhoon Haiyan's sedimentary record in coastal environments of the Philippines and its palaeotempestological implications
Institute of Geography, Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany
Simon Matthias May
Institute of Geography, Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany
Max Engel
Institute of Geography, Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany
Michelle Reyes
Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines
Anna Pint
Institute of Geography, Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany
Stephan Opitz
Institute of Geography, Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany
Manuel Dierick
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
Lia Anne Gonzalo
Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH), Department of Science and
Technology, Quezon City, Philippines
Sascha Esser
Institute of Geography, Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany
Helmut Brückner
Institute of Geography, Universität zu Köln, Cologne, Germany
Related authors
Katharina Seeger, Philip S. J. Minderhoud, Andreas Peffeköver, Anissa Vogel, Helmut Brückner, Frauke Kraas, Nay Win Oo, and Dominik Brill
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2257–2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate elevation data is essential for flood risk assessment. We assess land elevation to local mean sea level of the Ayeyarwady Delta with a new, local DEM based on geodetic data and evaluate the performance of 10 global DEMs in an SLR impact assessment. Our study reveals major differences in performance between global DEMs and consequentially introduced uncertainty in SLR impact assessments, indicating potential similar uncertainties for other data-poor coastal lowlands around the world.
Stephan Pötter, Katharina Seeger, Christiane Richter, Dominik Brill, Mathias Knaak, Frank Lehmkuhl, and Philipp Schulte
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 72, 77–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-72-77-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-72-77-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed a wetland environment for a late Middle to Upper Pleniglacial (approx. 30–20 ka) loess sequence in western Germany. Typically, these sequences reveal terrestrial conditions with soil formation processes during this time frame. The here-investigated section, however, was influenced by periodical flooding, leading to marshy conditions and a stressed ecosystem. Our results show that the landscape of the study area was much more fragmented during this time than previously thought.
Stephanie Scheidt, Matthias Lenz, Ramon Egli, Dominik Brill, Martin Klug, Karl Fabian, Marlene M. Lenz, Raphael Gromig, Janet Rethemeyer, Bernd Wagner, Grigory Federov, and Martin Melles
Geochronology, 4, 87–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-87-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-87-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Levinson-Lessing Lake in northern central Siberia provides an exceptional opportunity to study the evolution of the Earth's magnetic field in the Arctic. This is the first study carried out at the lake that focus on the palaeomagnetic record. It presents the relative palaeointensity and palaeosecular variation of the upper 38 m of sediment core Co1401, spanning ~62 kyr. A comparable high-resolution record of this time does not exist in the Eurasian Arctic.
Dominik Brill, Simon Matthias May, Nadia Mhammdi, Georgina King, Benjamin Lehmann, Christoph Burow, Dennis Wolf, Anja Zander, and Helmut Brückner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 205–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wave-transported boulders are important records for storm and tsunami impact over geological timescales. Their use for hazard assessment requires chronological information. We investigated the potential of a new dating technique, luminescence rock surface exposure dating, for estimating transport ages of wave-emplaced boulders. Our results indicate that the new approach may provide chronological information on decadal to millennial timescales for boulders not datable by any other method so far.
Max Engel, Stefanie Rückmann, Philipp Drechsler, Dominik Brill, Stephan Opitz, Jörg W. Fassbinder, Anna Pint, Kim Peis, Dennis Wolf, Christoph Gerber, Kristina Pfeiffer, Ricardo Eichmann, and Helmut Brückner
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 68, 215–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-215-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-215-2020, 2020
S. M. May, M. Engel, D. Brill, C. Cuadra, A. M. F. Lagmay, J. Santiago, J. K. Suarez, M. Reyes, and H. Brückner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 543–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-543-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-543-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Block and boulder fields record catastrophic coastal flooding events and play a pivotal role in coastal hazard assessment. After Supertyphoon Haiyan on 8 Nov 2013 the transport of extremely large blocks of up to 180 t in E Samar (Philippines) was documented, indicating that hydrodynamic conditions induced by tropical cyclones, including infragravity waves, and resulting coarse-clast transport patterns may be comparable to tsunamis.
Katharina Seeger, Philip S. J. Minderhoud, Andreas Peffeköver, Anissa Vogel, Helmut Brückner, Frauke Kraas, Nay Win Oo, and Dominik Brill
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 27, 2257–2281, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2257-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-27-2257-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Accurate elevation data is essential for flood risk assessment. We assess land elevation to local mean sea level of the Ayeyarwady Delta with a new, local DEM based on geodetic data and evaluate the performance of 10 global DEMs in an SLR impact assessment. Our study reveals major differences in performance between global DEMs and consequentially introduced uncertainty in SLR impact assessments, indicating potential similar uncertainties for other data-poor coastal lowlands around the world.
Stephan Pötter, Katharina Seeger, Christiane Richter, Dominik Brill, Mathias Knaak, Frank Lehmkuhl, and Philipp Schulte
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 72, 77–94, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-72-77-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-72-77-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We reconstructed a wetland environment for a late Middle to Upper Pleniglacial (approx. 30–20 ka) loess sequence in western Germany. Typically, these sequences reveal terrestrial conditions with soil formation processes during this time frame. The here-investigated section, however, was influenced by periodical flooding, leading to marshy conditions and a stressed ecosystem. Our results show that the landscape of the study area was much more fragmented during this time than previously thought.
Max Engel, Felix Henselowsky, Fabian Roth, Annette Kadereit, Manuel Herzog, Stefan Hecht, Susanne Lindauer, Olaf Bubenzer, and Gerd Schukraft
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 71, 213–226, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-71-213-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-71-213-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The late-glacial Bergstraßenneckar is a former course of the Neckar River in the Upper Rhine Graben of southwest Germany at a time when the confluence with the Rhine river was 50 km further to the north. The former river bends are still visible in topographic maps and satellite imagery. Sediment cores and geophysical measurements from the former river channels let us reconstruct the shift from a running river to silting-up meanders and permit us to date this to ca. 11 000 to 10 500 years ago.
Stephanie Scheidt, Matthias Lenz, Ramon Egli, Dominik Brill, Martin Klug, Karl Fabian, Marlene M. Lenz, Raphael Gromig, Janet Rethemeyer, Bernd Wagner, Grigory Federov, and Martin Melles
Geochronology, 4, 87–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-87-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gchron-4-87-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Levinson-Lessing Lake in northern central Siberia provides an exceptional opportunity to study the evolution of the Earth's magnetic field in the Arctic. This is the first study carried out at the lake that focus on the palaeomagnetic record. It presents the relative palaeointensity and palaeosecular variation of the upper 38 m of sediment core Co1401, spanning ~62 kyr. A comparable high-resolution record of this time does not exist in the Eurasian Arctic.
Dominik Brill, Simon Matthias May, Nadia Mhammdi, Georgina King, Benjamin Lehmann, Christoph Burow, Dennis Wolf, Anja Zander, and Helmut Brückner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 9, 205–234, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-205-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-9-205-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Wave-transported boulders are important records for storm and tsunami impact over geological timescales. Their use for hazard assessment requires chronological information. We investigated the potential of a new dating technique, luminescence rock surface exposure dating, for estimating transport ages of wave-emplaced boulders. Our results indicate that the new approach may provide chronological information on decadal to millennial timescales for boulders not datable by any other method so far.
Max Engel, Stefanie Rückmann, Philipp Drechsler, Dominik Brill, Stephan Opitz, Jörg W. Fassbinder, Anna Pint, Kim Peis, Dennis Wolf, Christoph Gerber, Kristina Pfeiffer, Ricardo Eichmann, and Helmut Brückner
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 68, 215–236, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-215-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-215-2020, 2020
Hannes Laermanns, Simon Matthias May, Daniel Kelterbaum, Giorgi Kirkitadze, Stephan Opitz, Levan Navrozashvili, Mikheil Elashvili, and Helmut Brückner
E&G Quaternary Sci. J., 68, 119–139, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-119-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/egqsj-68-119-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The landscape on the Black Sea coast of Georgia has changed significantly during the last few millennia. By using granulometric and geochemical analyses, we reconstructed significant sea level, coastline and palaeoenvironmental changes that have taken place in the surroundings of the Supsa fan since at least 4000 BCE.
S. M. May, M. Engel, D. Brill, C. Cuadra, A. M. F. Lagmay, J. Santiago, J. K. Suarez, M. Reyes, and H. Brückner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 543–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-543-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-543-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Block and boulder fields record catastrophic coastal flooding events and play a pivotal role in coastal hazard assessment. After Supertyphoon Haiyan on 8 Nov 2013 the transport of extremely large blocks of up to 180 t in E Samar (Philippines) was documented, indicating that hydrodynamic conditions induced by tropical cyclones, including infragravity waves, and resulting coarse-clast transport patterns may be comparable to tsunamis.
J. P. Lapidez, J. Tablazon, L. Dasallas, L. A. Gonzalo, K. M. Cabacaba, M. M. A. Ramos, J. K. Suarez, J. Santiago, A. M. F. Lagmay, and V. Malano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1473–1481, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1473-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1473-2015, 2015
Related subject area
Sea, Ocean and Coastal Hazards
Modelling extreme water levels using intertidal topography and bathymetry derived from multispectral satellite images
Regional assessment of extreme sea levels and associated coastal flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast
Joint probability analysis of storm surges and waves caused by tropical cyclones for the estimation of protection standard: a case study on the eastern coast of the Leizhou Peninsula and the island of Hainan in China
Meteotsunami in the United Kingdom: the hidden hazard
A new European coastal flood database for low-medium intensity events
Climate-induced storminess forces major increases in future storm surge hazard in the South China Sea region
Assessing Typhoon Soulik-induced morphodynamics over the Mokpo coastal region in South Korea based on a geospatial approach
Bayesian hierarchical modelling of sea-level extremes in the Finnish coastal region
Assessing the coastal hazard of Medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling
A predictive equation for wave setup using genetic programming
Bayesian extreme value analysis of extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast using historical information
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea
Compound flood events: analysing the joint occurrence of extreme river discharge events and storm surges in northern and central Europe
Improvements to the detection and analysis of external surges in the North Sea
Optimal probabilistic placement of facilities using a surrogate model for 3D tsunami simulations
Enabling dynamic modelling of coastal flooding by defining storm tide hydrographs
The role of preconditioning for extreme storm surges in the western Baltic Sea
Storm characteristics influence nitrogen removal in an urban estuarine environment
Freak wave events in 2005–2021: statistics and analysis of favourable wave and wind conditions
Probabilistic projections and past trends of sea level rise in Finland
The effect of deep ocean currents on ocean- bottom seismometers records
A wave-resolving modeling study of rip current variability, rip hazard, and swimmer escape strategies on an embayed beach with irregular rip channels
Total water levels along the South Atlantic Bight during three along-shelf propagating tropical cyclones: relative contributions of storm surge and wave runup
An interdisciplinary agent-based evacuation model: integrating the natural environment, built environment, and social system for community preparedness and resilience
Coastal extreme sea levels in the Caribbean Sea induced by tropical cyclones
Characteristics of consecutive tsunamis and resulting tsunami behaviors in southern Taiwan induced by the Hengchun earthquake doublet on 26 December 2006
Potential tsunami hazard of the southern Vanuatu subduction zone: tectonics, case study of the Matthew Island tsunami of 10 February 2021 and implication in regional hazard assessment
Detecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data using an autoassociative neural network
Boulder transport and wave height of a seventeenth century South China Sea tsunami on Penghu Islands, Taiwan
Observations of extreme wave runup events on the US Pacific Northwest coast
28 years of coastal subsidence evolution on the slow-moving Nice-Côte d’Azur airport area (France) revealed by InSAR: Insights into the deformation mechanism
Warning water level determination and its spatial distribution in coastal areas of China
Human displacements from tropical cyclone Idai attributable to climate change
A global open-source database of flood-protection levees on river deltas (openDELvE)
Hazard assessment and hydrodynamic, morphodynamic, and hydrological response to Hurricane Gamma and Hurricane Delta on the northern Yucatán Peninsula
Estimating dune erosion at the regional scale using a meta-model based on neural networks
Simulation of tsunami induced by a submarine landslide in a glaciomarine margin: the case of Storfjorden LS-1 (southwestern Svalbard Islands)
Multi-hazard analysis of flood and tsunamis on the western Mediterranean coast of Turkey
Importance of non-stationary analysis for assessing extreme sea levels under sea level rise
Wind-wave characteristics and extremes along the Emilia-Romagna coast
Partitioning the contributions of dependent offshore forcing conditions in the probabilistic assessment of future coastal flooding
Identification and ranking of subaerial volcanic tsunami hazard sources in Southeast Asia
Modelling geographical and built-environment attributes as predictors of human vulnerability during tsunami evacuations: a multi-case-study and paths to improvement
Modelling the sequential earthquake–tsunami response of coastal road embankment infrastructure
Historical tsunamis of Taiwan in the 18th century: the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and 1782 tsunami event
Multilevel multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for assessing uncertainty in coastal flooding
Reconstruction of wind and surge of the 1906 storm tide at the German North Sea coast
Developing a framework for the assessment of current and future flood risk in Venice, Italy
Storm surge hazard over Bengal delta: a probabilistic–deterministic modelling approach
Compound flood impact of water level and rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in a coastal city: the case of Shanghai
Wagner L. L. Costa, Karin R. Bryan, and Giovanni Coco
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3125–3146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3125-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
For predicting flooding events at the coast, topo-bathymetric data are essential. However, elevation data can be unavailable. To tackle this issue, recent efforts have centred on the use of satellite-derived topography (SDT) and bathymetry (SDB). This work is aimed at evaluating their accuracy and use for flooding prediction in enclosed estuaries. Results show that the use of SDT and SDB in numerical modelling can produce similar predictions when compared to the surveyed elevation data.
Joshua Kiesel, Marvin Lorenz, Marcel König, Ulf Gräwe, and Athanasios T. Vafeidis
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2961–2985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2961-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Among the Baltic Sea littoral states, Germany is anticipated to experience considerable damage as a result of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise (SLR). Here we apply a new modelling framework to simulate how flooding along the German Baltic Sea coast may change until 2100 if dikes are not upgraded. We find that the study region is highly exposed to flooding, and we emphasise the importance of current plans to update coastal protection in the future.
Zhang Haixia, Cheng Meng, and Fang Weihua
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2697–2717, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2697-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Simultaneous storm surge and waves can cause great damage due to cascading effects. Quantitative joint probability analysis is critical to determine their optimal protection design values. The joint probability of the surge and wave for the eastern coasts of Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan are estimated with a Gumbel copula based on 62 years of numerically simulated data, and the optimal design values under various joint return periods are derived using the non-linear programming method.
Clare Lewis, Tim Smyth, David Williams, Jess Neumann, and Hannah Cloke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2531–2546, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2531-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Meteotsunami are globally occurring water waves initiated by atmospheric disturbances. Previous research has suggested that in the UK, meteotsunami are a rare phenomenon and tend to occur in the summer months. This article presents a revised and updated catalogue of 98 meteotsunami that occurred between 1750 and 2022. Results also demonstrate a larger percentage of winter events and a geographical pattern highlighting the
hotspotregions that experience these events.
Marine Le Gal, Tomás Fernández-Montblanc, Enrico Duo, Juan Montes Perez, Paulo Cabrita, Paola Souto Ceccon, Vera Gastal, Paolo Ciavola, and Clara Armaroli
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1157, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1157, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing coastal hazards is crucial to mitigate flooding disasters. In this regard, coastal flood databases are valuable tools. This paper describes a new coastal flood map catalogue covering the entire European coastline, as well as the methodology to build it and its accuracy. The catalogue focuses on frequent extreme events and relies on synthetic scenarios estimated from local storm conditions. Flood prone areas and regions sensitive to storm duration and water level peak were identified.
Melissa Wood, Ivan D. Haigh, Quan Quan Le, Hung Nghia Nguyen, Hoang Ba Tran, Stephen E. Darby, Robert Marsh, Nikolaos Skliris, Joël J.-M. Hirschi, Robert J. Nicholls, and Nadia Bloemendaal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2475–2504, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2475-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We used a novel database of simulated tropical cyclone tracks to explore whether typhoon-induced storm surges present a future flood risk to low-lying coastal communities around the South China Sea. We found that future climate change is likely to change tropical cyclone behaviour to an extent that this increases the severity and frequency of storm surges to Vietnam, southern China, and Thailand. Consequently, coastal flood defences need to be reviewed for resilience against this future hazard.
Sang-Guk Yum, Moon-Soo Song, and Manik Das Adhikari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2449–2474, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2449-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study performed analysis on typhoon-induced coastal morphodynamics for the Mokpo coast. Wetland vegetation was severely impacted by Typhoon Soulik, with 87.35 % of shoreline transects experiencing seaward migration. This result highlights the fact that sediment resuspension controls the land alteration process over the typhoon period. The land accretion process dominated during the pre- to post-typhoon periods.
Olle Räty, Marko Laine, Ulpu Leijala, Jani Särkkä, and Milla M. Johansson
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2403–2418, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2403-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We studied annual maximum sea levels in the Finnish coastal region. Our aim was to better quantify the uncertainty in them compared to previous studies. Using four statistical models, we found out that hierarchical models, which shared information on sea-level extremes across Finnish tide gauges, had lower uncertainty in their results in comparison with tide-gauge-specific fits. These models also suggested that the shape of the distribution for extreme sea levels is similar on the Finnish coast.
Christian Ferrarin, Florian Pantillon, Silvio Davolio, Marco Bajo, Mario Marcello Miglietta, Elenio Avolio, Diego S. Carrió, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Claudio Sanchez, Platon Patlakas, Juan Jesús González-Alemán, and Emmanouil Flaounas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273–2287, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2273-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The combined use of meteorological and ocean models enabled the analysis of extreme sea conditions driven by Medicane Ianos, which hit the western coast of Greece on 18 September 2020, flooding and damaging the coast. The large spread associated with the ensemble highlighted the high model uncertainty in simulating such an extreme weather event. The different simulations have been used for outlining hazard scenarios that represent a fundamental component of the coastal risk assessment.
Charline Dalinghaus, Giovanni Coco, and Pablo Higuera
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2157–2169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2157-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wave setup is a critical component of coastal flooding. Consequently, understanding and being able to predict wave setup is vital to protect coastal resources and the population living near the shore. Here, we applied machine learning to improve the accuracy of present predictors of wave setup. The results show that the new predictors outperform existing formulas demonstrating the capability of machine learning models to provide a physically sound description of wave setup.
Leigh Richard MacPherson, Arne Arns, Svenja Fischer, Fernando J. Méndez, and Jürgen Jensen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-1122, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Efficient adaptation planning to coastal flooding caused by extreme sea levels requires accurate assessments of the underlying hazard. Tide-gauge data alone is often insufficient for providing the desired accuracy but may be supplemented with historical information. We estimate extreme sea levels along the German Baltic coast and show that relying solely on tide-gauge data leads to underestimations. Incorporating historical information leads to improved estimates with reduced uncertainties.
Ina Teutsch, Markus Brühl, Ralf Weisse, and Sander Wahls
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2053–2073, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves.
Philipp Heinrich, Stefan Hagemann, Ralf Weisse, Corinna Schrum, Ute Daewel, and Lidia Gaslikova
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1967–1985, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1967-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
High seawater levels co-occurring with high river discharges have the potential to cause destructive flooding. For the past decades, the number of such compound events was larger than expected by pure chance for most of the west-facing coasts in Europe. Additionally rivers with smaller catchments showed higher numbers. In most cases, such events were associated with a large-scale weather pattern characterized by westerly winds and strong rainfall.
Alexander Böhme, Birgit Gerkensmeier, Benedikt Bratz, Clemens Krautwald, Olaf Müller, Nils Goseberg, and Gabriele Gönnert
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1947–1966, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1947-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
External surges in the North Sea are caused by low-pressure cells travelling over the northeast Atlantic. They influence extreme water levels on the German coast and have to be considered in the design process of coastal defence structures. This study collects data about external surges from 1995–2020 and analyses their causes, behaviours and potential trends. External surges often occur less than 72 h apart, enabling a single storm surge to be influenced by more than one external surge.
Kenta Tozato, Shuji Moriguchi, Shinsuke Takase, Yu Otake, Michael R. Motley, Anawat Suppasri, and Kenjiro Terada
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1891–1909, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1891-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study presents a framework that efficiently investigates the optimal placement of facilities probabilistically based on advanced numerical simulation. Surrogate models for the numerical simulation are constructed using a mode decomposition technique. Monte Carlo simulations using the surrogate models are performed to evaluate failure probabilities. Using the results of the Monte Carlo simulations and the genetic algorithm, optimal placements can be investigated probabilistically.
Job C. M. Dullaart, Sanne Muis, Hans de Moel, Philip J. Ward, Dirk Eilander, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1847–1862, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1847-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal flooding is driven by storm surges and high tides and can be devastating. To gain an understanding of the threat posed by coastal flooding and to identify areas that are especially at risk, now and in the future, it is crucial to accurately model coastal inundation and assess the coastal flood hazard. Here, we present a global dataset with hydrographs that represent the typical evolution of an extreme sea level. These can be used to model coastal inundation more accurately.
Elin Andrée, Jian Su, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel, and Kristine Skovgaard Madsen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1817–1834, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1817-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
When natural processes interact, they may compound each other. The combined effect can amplify extreme sea levels, such as when a storm occurs at a time when the water level is already higher than usual. We used numerical modelling of a record-breaking storm surge in 1872 to show that other prior sea-level conditions could have further worsened the outcome. Our research highlights the need to consider the physical context of extreme sea levels in measures to reduce coastal flood risk.
Anne Margaret H. Smiley, Suzanne P. Thompson, Nathan S. Hall, and Michael F. Piehler
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-292, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-292, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Floodwaters can deliver reactive nitrogen to sensitive aquatic systems and diminish water quality. We assessed the nitrogen removal capabilities of flooded habitats and urban landscapes. Differences in processing rates across land cover treatments and between nutrient treatments suggest that abundance and spatial distributions of habitats, as well as storm characteristics, influence landscape-scale nitrogen removal. Results have important implications for coastal development and climate change.
Ekaterina Didenkulova, Ira Didenkulova, and Igor Medvedev
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1653–1663, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1653-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The paper is dedicated to freak wave accidents which happened in the world ocean in 2005–2021 and that were described in mass media sources. The database accounts for 429 events, all of which resulted in ship or coastal and offshore structure damage and/or human losses. In agreement with each freak wave event, we put background wave and wind conditions extracted from the climate reanalysis ERA5. We analyse their statistics and discuss the favourable conditions for freak wave occurrence.
Havu Pellikka, Milla M. Johansson, Maaria Nordman, and Kimmo Ruosteenoja
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1613–1630, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1613-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We explore the rate of past and future sea level rise at the Finnish coast, northeastern Baltic Sea, in 1901–2100. For this analysis, we use tide gauge observations, modelling results, and a probabilistic method to combine information from several sea level rise projections. We provide projections of local mean sea level by 2100 as probability distributions. The results can be used in adaptation planning in various sectors with different risk tolerance, e.g. land use planning or nuclear safety.
Carlos Corela, Afonso Loureiro, José Luis Duarte, Luis Matias, Tiago Rebelo, and Tiago Bartolomeu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1433–1451, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1433-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We show that ocean-bottom seismometers are controlled by bottom currents, but these are not always a function of the tidal forcing. Instead we suggest that the ocean bottom has a flow regime resulting from two possible contributions: the permanent low-frequency bottom current and the tidal current along the full tidal cycle, between neap and spring tides. In the short-period noise band the ocean current generates harmonic tremors that corrupt the dataset records.
Ye Yuan, Huaiwei Yang, Fujiang Yu, Yi Gao, Benxia Li, and Chuang Xing
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-122, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-122, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Drownings due to rip currents are a major threat to beach safety. In this study an improved model and tracking of virtual swimmers were applied to an embayed beach in China to study rip current characteristics and the optimal swimmer escape strategies. We found that swim onshore consistently seems the most successful strategy in this study. Swim onshore or swim parallel to the beach could improve the probability of survival. Stay afloat can bring a higher risk of being expelled to deeper water.
Chu-En Hsu, Katherine Serafin, Xiao Yu, Christie Hegermiller, John C. Warner, and Maitane Olabarrieta
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-49, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-49, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed how tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics affect total water level components. We used a numerical model to simulate surges and wind waves in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) during hurricanes Matthew 2016, Dorian 2019, and Isaias 2020. We compared the water levels along the SAB. As the TCs approached, the water levels were affected by the instantaneous wind speed and the TC locations. To quantify the individual effects of TC properties on water levels, further analysis is required.
Chen Chen, Charles Koll, Haizhong Wang, and Michael K. Lindell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 733–749, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-733-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper uses empirical-data-based simulation to analyze how to evacuate efficiently from disasters. We find that departure delay time and evacuation decision have significant impacts on evacuation results. Evacuation results are more sensitive to walking speed, departure delay time, evacuation participation, and destinations than to other variables. This model can help authorities to prioritize resources for hazard education, community disaster preparedness, and resilience plans.
Ariadna Martín, Angel Amores, Alejandro Orfila, Tim Toomey, and Marta Marcos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 587–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-587-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the potentially most hazardous phenomena affecting the coasts of the Caribbean Sea. This work simulates the coastal hazards in terms of sea surface elevation and waves that originate through the passage of these events. A set of 1000 TCs have been simulated, obtained from a set of synthetic cyclones that are consistent with present-day climate. Given the large number of hurricanes used, robust values of extreme sea levels and waves are computed along the coasts.
An-Chi Cheng, Anawat Suppasri, Kwanchai Pakoksung, and Fumihiko Imamura
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 447–479, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-447-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Consecutive earthquakes occurred offshore of southern Taiwan on 26 December 2006. This event revealed unusual tsunami generation and propagation, as well as unexpected consequences for the southern Taiwanese coast (i.e., amplified waves and prolonged durations). This study aims to elucidate the source characteristics of the 2006 tsunami and the important behaviors responsible for tsunami hazards in Taiwan such as wave trapping and shelf resonance.
Jean Roger, Bernard Pelletier, Aditya Gusman, William Power, Xiaoming Wang, David Burbidge, and Maxime Duphil
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 393–414, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-393-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
On 10 February 2021 a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurring at the southernmost part of the Vanuatu subduction zone triggered a regional tsunami that was recorded on many coastal gauges and DART stations of the south-west Pacific region. Beginning with a review of the tectonic setup and its implication in terms of tsunami generation in the region, this study aims to show our ability to reproduce a small tsunami with different types of rupture models and to discuss a larger magnitude 8.2 scenario.
Kathrin Wahle, Emil V. Stanev, and Joanna Staneva
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Knowledge of what causes maximum water levels is often key in coastal management. Processes, such as storm surge and atmospheric forcing, alter the predicted tide. Whilst most of these processes are modeled in present-day ocean forecasting, there is still a need for a better understanding of situations where modeled and observed water levels deviate from each other. Here, we will use machine learning to detect such anomalies within a network of sea-level observations in the North Sea.
Neng-Ti Yu, Cheng-Hao Lu, I-Chin Yen, Jia-Hong Chen, Jiun-Yee Yen, and Shyh-Jeng Chyi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-293, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2022-293, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Rock debris moved by tsunami waves that probably followed the 1661 earthquake in SW Taiwan are found. The long-awaited question of whether large tsunamis could impact on the South China Sea coasts is answered. The 3 m tall waves are powerful enough to carry big rocks, up to 2 t in weight and 1.7 m in length, landward for 30 m in distance and onto a 2.5 m high cliff. The earthquake and tsunami must be huge compared to the modern record set by the 1994 M6.4 earthquake and 0.4 m high tsunami.
Chuan Li, H. Tuba Özkan-Haller, Gabriel García Medina, Robert A. Holman, Peter Ruggiero, Treena M. Jensen, David B. Elson, and William R. Schneider
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 107–126, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-107-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we examine a set of observed extreme, non-earthquake-related and non-landslide-related wave runup events. Runup events with similar characteristics have previously been attributed to trapped waves, atmospheric disturbances, and abrupt breaking of long waves. However, we find that none of these mechanisms were likely at work in the observations we examined. We show that instead, these runup events were more likely due to energetic growth of bound infragravity waves.
Olivier Cavalié, Frédéric Cappa, and Béatrice Pinel-Puysségur
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1113, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1113, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Coastal areas are fragile ecosystems that face multiple hazards. In this study, we measured the downward motion of the Nice-Côte d'Azur airport (Nice, France) that has been built on reclaimed area and found that it subsides from 16 mm/yr in the 1990s to 8 mm/yr today. A continuous remotely monitoring of the platform will provide key data for a detailed investigation of future subsidence maps and their contribution will help to evaluate the potential failure of a part of the airport platform.
Shan Liu, Xianwu Shi, Qiang Liu, Jun Tan, Yuxi Sun, Qingrong Liu, and Haoshuang Guo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 127–138, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-127-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This study proposes a quantitative method for the determination of warning water levels. The proposed method is a multidimensional scale, centered on the consideration of various factors that characterize various coastlines. The implications of our study are not only scientific, as we provide a method for water level determination that is rooted in the scientific method (and reproducible across various contexts beyond China), but they are also deeply practical.
Benedikt Mester, Thomas Vogt, Seth Bryant, Christian Otto, Katja Frieler, and Jacob Schewe
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1308, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2022-1308, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In 2019, cyclone Idai displaced more than 478,000 people in Mozambique. In our study, we use coastal flood modeling and satellite imagery to construct a counterfactual cyclone event without the effects of climate change. We show that 17,000 displacements can be attributed to sea level rise and the intensification of storm wind speeds due to global warming. Our impact attribution study is the first one on human displacement and one of very few for a low-income country.
Jaap H. Nienhuis, Jana R. Cox, Joey O'Dell, Douglas A. Edmonds, and Paolo Scussolini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4087–4101, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4087-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Humans build levees to protect themselves against floods. We need to know where they are to correctly predict flooding, for example from sea level rise. Here we have looked through documents to find levees, and checked that they exist using satellite imagery. We developed a global levee map, available at www.opendelve.eu, and we found that 24 % of people in deltas are protected by levees.
Alec Torres-Freyermuth, Gabriela Medellín, Jorge A. Kurczyn, Roger Pacheco-Castro, Jaime Arriaga, Christian M. Appendini, María Eugenia Allende-Arandía, Juan A. Gómez, Gemma L. Franklin, and Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4063–4085, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4063-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Barrier islands in tropical regions are prone to coastal flooding and erosion during hurricane events. The Yucatán coast was impacted by hurricanes Gamma and Delta. Inner shelf, coastal, and inland observations were acquired. Beach morphology changes show alongshore gradients. Flooding occurred on the back barrier due to heavy inland rain and the coastal aquifer's confinement. Modeling systems failed to reproduce the coastal hydrodynamic response due to uncertainties in the boundary conditions.
Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Jose A. A. Antolinez, and Roshanka Ranasinghe
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3897–3915, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3897-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Sandy dunes protect the hinterland from coastal flooding during storms. Thus, models that can efficiently predict dune erosion are critical for coastal zone management and early warning systems. Here we develop such a model for the Dutch coast based on machine learning techniques, allowing for dune erosion estimations in a matter of seconds relative to available computationally expensive models. Validation of the model against benchmark data and observations shows good agreement.
María Teresa Pedrosa-González, José Manuel González-Vida, Jesús Galindo-Záldivar, Sergio Ortega, Manuel Jesús Castro, David Casas, and Gemma Ercilla
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3839–3858, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3839-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The L-ML-HySEA (Landslide Multilayer Hyperbolic Systems and Efficient Algorithms) model of the tsunami triggered by the Storfjorden LS-1 landslide provides new insights into the sliding mechanism and bathymetry controlling the propagation, amplitude values and shoaling effects as well as coastal impact times. This case study provides new perspectives on tsunami hazard assessment in polar margins, where global climatic change and its related ocean warming may contribute to landslide trigger.
Cuneyt Yavuz, Kutay Yilmaz, and Gorkem Onder
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3725–3736, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3725-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Even if the coincidence of flood and tsunami hazards may be experienced once in a blue moon, it should also be investigated due to the uncertainty of the time of occurrence of these natural hazards. The objective of this study is to reveal a statistical methodology to evaluate the aggregate potential hazard levels due to flood hazards with the presence of earthquake-triggered tsunamis. The proposed methodology is applied to Fethiye city, located on the Western Mediterranean coast of Turkey.
Damiano Baldan, Elisa Coraci, Franco Crosato, Maurizio Ferla, Andrea Bonometto, and Sara Morucci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3663–3677, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3663-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Extreme-event analysis is widely used to provide information for the design of coastal protection structures. Non-stationarity due to sea level rise can affect such estimates. Using different methods on a long time series of sea level data, we show that estimates of the magnitude of extreme events in the future can be inexact due to relative sea level rise. Thus, considering non-stationarity is important when analyzing extreme-sea-level events.
Umesh Pranavam Ayyappan Pillai, Nadia Pinardi, Ivan Federico, Salvatore Causio, Francesco Trotta, Silvia Unguendoli, and Andrea Valentini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3413–3433, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3413-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The study presents the application of high-resolution coastal modelling for wave hindcasting on the Emilia-Romagna coastal belt. The generated coastal databases which provide an understanding of the prevailing wind-wave characteristics can aid in predicting coastal impacts.
Jeremy Rohmer, Deborah Idier, Remi Thieblemont, Goneri Le Cozannet, and François Bachoc
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3167–3182, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3167-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We quantify the influence of wave–wind characteristics, offshore water level and sea level rise (projected up to 2200) on the occurrence of flooding events at Gâvres, French Atlantic coast. Our results outline the overwhelming influence of sea level rise over time compared to the others. By showing the robustness of our conclusions to the errors in the estimation procedure, our approach proves to be valuable for exploring and characterizing uncertainties in assessments of future flooding.
Edgar U. Zorn, Aiym Orynbaikyzy, Simon Plank, Andrey Babeyko, Herlan Darmawan, Ismail Fata Robbany, and Thomas R. Walter
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3083–3104, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3083-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Tsunamis caused by volcanoes are a challenge for warning systems as they are difficult to predict and detect. In Southeast Asia there are many active volcanoes close to the coast, so it is important to identify the most likely volcanoes to cause tsunamis in the future. For this purpose, we developed a point-based score system, allowing us to rank volcanoes by the hazard they pose. The results may be used to improve local monitoring and preparedness in the affected areas.
Jorge León, Alejandra Gubler, and Alonso Ogueda
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2857–2878, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2857-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Our research focuses on how the geophysical characteristics of coastal cities can determine evacuees' vulnerability during a tsunami evacuation. We identify, analyse, and rank some of those essential characteristics by examining seven case studies in Chile through computer-based inundation, evacuation, and statistical regressive modelling. These results could lead to urban planning guidelines to enhance future evacuations and increase resilience to global tsunamis.
Azucena Román-de la Sancha, Rodolfo Silva, Omar S. Areu-Rangel, Manuel Gerardo Verduzco-Zapata, Edgar Mendoza, Norma Patricia López-Acosta, Alexandra Ossa, and Silvia García
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2589–2609, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2589-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Transport networks in coastal urban areas are vulnerable to seismic events, with damage likely due to both ground motions and tsunami loading. The paper presents an approach that captures the earthquake–tsunami effects on transport infrastructure in a coastal area, taking into consideration the combined strains of the two events. The model is applied to a case in Manzanillo, Mexico, using ground motion records of the 1995 earthquake–tsunami event.
Tien-Chi Liu, Tso-Ren Wu, and Shu-Kun Hsu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2517–2530, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2517-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The findings from historical reports and numerical studies suggest the 1781 Jiateng Harbor flooding and the 1782 tsunami should be two independent incidents. Local tsunamis generated in southwest Taiwan could be responsible for the 1781 flooding, while the existence of the 1782 tsunami remains doubtful. With the documents of a storm event on 22 May 1782, the possibility that the significant water level of the 1782 tsunami was caused by storm surges or multiple hazards could not be ignored.
Mariana C. A. Clare, Tim W. B. Leijnse, Robert T. McCall, Ferdinand L. M. Diermanse, Colin J. Cotter, and Matthew D. Piggott
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2491–2515, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2491-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Assessing uncertainty is computationally expensive because it requires multiple runs of expensive models. We take the novel approach of assessing uncertainty from coastal flooding using a multilevel multifidelity (MLMF) method which combines the efficiency of less accurate models with the accuracy of more expensive models at different resolutions. This significantly reduces the computational cost but maintains accuracy, making previously unfeasible real-world studies possible.
Elke Magda Inge Meyer, Ralf Weisse, Iris Grabemann, Birger Tinz, and Robert Scholz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2419–2432, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2419-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The severe storm tide of 13 March 1906 is still one of the most severe storm events for the East Frisian coast. Water levels from this event are considered for designing dike lines. For the first time, we investigate this event with a hydrodynamic model by forcing with atmospheric data from 147 ensemble members from century reanalysis projects and a manual reconstruction of the synoptic situation. Water levels were notably high due to a coincidence of high spring tides and high surge.
Julius Schlumberger, Christian Ferrarin, Sebastiaan N. Jonkman, Manuel Andres Diaz Loaiza, Alessandro Antonini, and Sandra Fatorić
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2381–2400, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2381-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Flooding has serious impacts on the old town of Venice. This paper presents a framework combining a flood model with a flood-impact model to support improving protection against future floods in Venice despite the recently built MOSE barrier. Applying the framework to seven plausible flood scenarios, it was found that individual protection has a significant damage-mediating effect if the MOSE barrier does not operate as anticipated. Contingency planning thus remains important in Venice.
Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Fabien Durand, Kerry Emanuel, Yann Krien, Laurent Testut, and A. K. M. Saiful Islam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2359–2379, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2359-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Cyclonic storm surges constitute a major threat to lives and properties along the vast coastline of the Bengal delta. From a combination of cyclone and storm surge modelling, we present a robust probabilistic estimate of the storm surge flooding hazard under the current climate. The estimated extreme water levels vary regionally, and the inland flooding is strongly controlled by the embankments. More than 1/10 of the coastal population is currently exposed to 50-year return period flooding.
Hanqing Xu, Zhan Tian, Laixiang Sun, Qinghua Ye, Elisa Ragno, Jeremy Bricker, Ganquan Mao, Jinkai Tan, Jun Wang, Qian Ke, Shuai Wang, and Ralf Toumi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2347–2358, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2347-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A hydrodynamic model and copula methodology were used to set up a joint distribution of the peak water level and the inland rainfall during tropical cyclone periods, and to calculate the marginal contributions of the individual drivers. The results indicate that the relative sea level rise has significantly amplified the peak water level. The astronomical tide is the leading driver, followed by the contribution from the storm surge.
Cited articles
Abe, T., Goto, K., and Sugawara, D.: Relationship between the maximum extent of tsunami sand and the inundation limit of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami on the Sendai Plain, Japan, Sediment. Geol., 282, 142–150, 2012.
Atwater, B. F., Cisternas, M., Yulianto, E., Prendergast, A. L., Jankaew, K., Eipert, A. A., Starin Fernando, W. I., Tejakusuma, I., Schiappacasse, I., and Sawai, Y.: The 1960 tsunami on beach-ridge plains near Maullín, Chile: Landward descent, renewed breaches, aggraded fans, multiple predecessors, Andean Geol., 40, 393–418, 2013.
Baines, G. B. K. and McLean, R. F.: Sequential studies of hurricane deposit evolution at Funafuti Atoll, Mar. Geol., 21, 1–8, 1976.
Bird, E. C. F. (Ed.): Philippines, in: Encyclopedia of the World's Coastal Landforms, Springer Netherlands, Dordrecht, 1151–1156, 2010.
Bishop, P., Sanderson, D., Hansom, J., and Chaimanee, N.: Age-dating of tsunami deposits: lessons from the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand, Geogr. J., 171, 379–384, 2005.
Blott, S. J. and Pye, K.: GRADISTAT: A grain size distribution and statistics package for the analysis of unconsolidated sediments, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 26, 1237–1248, 2001.
Bricker, J., Takagi, H., Mas, E., Kure, S., Adriano, B., Yi, C., and Roeber, V.: Spatial variation of damage due to storm surge and waves during Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, 70, I_231–I_235, 2014.
Brill, D., Klasen, N., Brückner, H., Jankaew, K., Scheffers, A., Kelletat, D., and Scheffers, S.: OSL dating of tsunami deposits from Phra Thong Island, Thailand, Quat. Geochronol., 10, 224–229, 2012.
Brill, D., Pint, A., Jankaew, K., Frenzel, P., Schwarzer, K., Vött, A., and Brückner, H.: Sediment transport and hydrodynamic parameters of tsunami waves recorded in onshore geoarchives – A case study from Thailand, J. Coastal Res., 30, 922–941, 2014.
Brückner, H. and Brill, D.: Der Tsunami von 2004 – fünf Jahre danach, Geographische Rundschau, 61, 4–10, 2009.
Corral, A., Ossó, A., and Llebot, J. E.: Scaling of tropical-cyclone dissipation, Nat. Phys., 6, 693–696, 2010.
Cuadra, C., Biton, N. I., Cabacaba, K. M., Santiago, J., Suarez, J. K., Lapidez, J. P., Lagmay, A. M. F., and Malano, V.: Development of Inundation Map for Bantayan Island, Cebu Using Delft3D-Flow Storm Surge Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan, NOAH Open-File Reports, 3, 37–44, 2014.
Dimalanta, C. B., Suerte, L. O., Yumul, G. P., Tamayo, R. A., and Ramos, E. G. L.: A Cretaceous supra-subduction oceanic basin source for Central Philippine ophiolitic basement complexes: Geological and geophysical constraints, Geosci. J., 10, 305–320, 2006.
Donnelly, C., Kraus, N., and Larson, M.: State of knowledge on the measurement and modeling of coastal overwash, J. Coastal Res., 22, 965–991, 2006.
Engel, M., Brill, D., May, S. M., Brückner, H., and Reyes, M.: Philippinen: "Haiyans" Erbe, Geographische Rundschau, 66, 54–57, 2014.
Folk, R. L. and Ward, W. C.: Brazos River bar: a study in the significance of grain size parameters, J. Sediment. Petrol., 27, 3–26, 1957.
Fritz, H. M., Blount, C. D., Thwin, S., Kyaw Thu, M., and Chan, N.: Cyclone Nargis storm surge in Myanmar, Nat. Geosci., 2, 448–449, 2009.
Goto, K., Imamura, F., Keerthi, N., Kunthasap, P., Matsui, T., Minoura, K., Ruangrassamee, A., Sugawara, D., and Supharatid, S.: Distribution and significance of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami deposits: initial results from Thailand and Sri Lanka, in: Tsunamiites – Features and Implications, edited by: Shiki, T., Tsuji, Y., Yamazaki, T., and Minoura, K., Elsevier B.V., 105–122, 2008.
Goto, K., Chague-Goff, C., Fujino, S., Goff, J., Jaffe, B., Nishimura, Y., Richmond, B., Sugawara, D., Szczucinski, W., Tappin, D. R., Witter, R., and Yulianto, E.: New insights of tsunami hazard from the 2011 Tohoku-oki event, Mar. Geol., 290, 46–50, 2011.
Goto, K., Hashimoto, K., Sugawara, D., Yanagisawa, H., and Abe, T.: Spatial thickness variability of the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami deposits along the coastline of Sendai Bay, Mar. Geol., 358, 38–48, 2014.
Hammer, Ø., Harper, D. A. T., and Ryan, P. D.: PAST: Paleontological statistics software package for education and data analysis, Palaeontol. Electron., 4, 9 pp., 2001.
Hippensteel, S. P., Eastin, M. D., and Garcia, W. J.: The geological legacy of Hurricane Irene: Implications for the fidelity of the paleo-storm record, GSA Today, 23, 4–10, 2013.
Imamura, F., Synolakis, C. E., Gica, E., Titov, V., Listanco, E., and Lee, H. J.: Field survey of the 1994 Mindoro Island, Philippines tsunami, Pure Appl. Geophys., 144, 875–890, 1995.
IRIDeS (International Research Institute of Disaster Science): IRIDeS fact-finding missions to Philippines, Initial Report, Tohoku University, Japan, available at: http://irides.tohoku.ac.jp/media/files/IRIDeS_Report_Haiyan_20140527.pdf, last access: 31 May 2015, 2014.
Jaffe, B. E., Buckley, M. L., Richmond, B. M., Strotz, L., Etienne, S., Clark, K., and Gelfenbaum, G.: Flow speed estimated by inverse modeling of sandy sediment deposited by the 29 September 2009 tsunami near Satitoa, east Upolu, Samoa, Earth-Sci. Rev., 107, 23–37, 2011.
Jankaew, K., Atwater, B. F., Sawai, Y., Choowong, M., Charoentitirat, T., Martin, M. E., and Prendergast, A.: Medieval forewarning of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami in Thailand, Nature, 455, 1228–1231, 2008.
Kennedy, A., Mori, N., Zhang, Y., Yasuda, T., Chen, S.-E., Tajima, Y., Pecor, W., and Toride, K.: Observations and modelling of coastal boulder transport and loading during super typhoon Haiyan, Coast. Eng. J., 58, 1640004, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563416400040, 2016.
Knutson, T. R., McBride, J. L., Chan, J., Emanuel, K., Holland, G., Landsea, C., Held, I., Kossin, J. P., Srivastava, A. K., and Sugi, M.: Tropical cyclones and climate change, Nat. Geosci., 3, 157–163, 2010.
Komar, P. and Wang, C.: Processes of selective grain transport and the formation of placers on beaches, J. Geol., 92, 637–655, 1984.
Kortekaas, S. and Dawson, A. G.: Distinguishing tsunami and storm deposits: An example from Martinhal, SW Portugal, Sediment. Geol., 200, 208–221, 2007.
Lagmay, A. M. F., Agaton, R. P., Bahala, M. A. C., Briones, J. B. L. T., Cabacaba, K. M. C., Caro, C. V. C., Dasallas, L. L., Gonzalo, L. A. L., Ladiero, C. N., Lapidez, J. P., Mungcal, M. T. F., Puno, J. V. R., Ramos, M. M. A. C., Santiago, J., Suarez, J. K., and Tablazon, J. P.: Devastating storm surges of Typhoon Haiyan, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 11, 1–12, 2015.
Maragos, J. E., Baines, G. B. K., and Beveridge, P. J.: Tropical Cyclone Bebe creates a new land formation on Funafuti Atoll, Science, 181, 1161–1164, 1973.
Mas, E., Bricker, J., Kure, S., Adriano, B., Yi, C., Suppasri, A., and Koshimura, S.: Field survey report and satellite image interpretation of the 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 805–816, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-805-2015, 2015.
Matias, A., Ferreira, Ó., Vila-Concejo, A., Garcia, T., and Dias, J. A.: Classification of washover dynamics in barrier islands, Geomorphology, 97, 655–674, 2008.
May, S. M., Engel, M., Brill, D., Squire, P., Scheffers, A., and Kelletat, D.: Coastal hazards from tropical cyclones and extratropical winter storms based on Holocene storm chronologies, in: Coastal Hazards, edited by: Finkl, C. W., Springer, Part VII, 557–585, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-5234-4_20, 2013.
May, S. M., Brill, D., Engel, M., Scheffers, A., Pint, A., Opitz, S., Wennrich, V., Squire, P., Kelletat, D., and Brückner, H.: Traces of historical tropical cyclones and tsunamis in the Ashburton Delta (NW Australia), Sedimentology, 62, 1546–1572, https://doi.org/10.1111/sed.12192, 2015a.
May, S. M., Engel, M., Brill, D., Cuadra, C., Lagmay, A. M. F., Santiago, J., Suarez, J. K., Reyes, M., and Brückner, H.: Block and boulder transport in Eastern Samar (Philippines) during Supertyphoon Haiyan, Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 543–558, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-543-2015, 2015b.
Morgerman, J.: Super Typhoon Haiyan in Tacloban City & Leyte, Philippines, iCyclone Chase Report, 47 pp., 2014.
Mori, N., Kato, M., Kim, S., Mase, H., Shibutani, Y., Takemi, T., Tsuboki, K., and Yasuda, T.: Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 5106–5113, 2014.
Morton, R., Gelfenbaum, G., and Jaffe, B.: Physical criteria for distinguishing sandy tsunami and storm deposits using modern examples, Sediment. Geol., 200, 184–207, 2007.
Nanayama, F., Shigeno, K., Satake, K., Shimokawa, K., Koitabashi, S., Miyasaka, S., and Ishii, M.: Sedimentary differences between the 1993 Hokkaido-nansei-oki tsunami and the 1959 Miyakojima typhoon at Taisei, southwestern Hokkaido, northern Japan, Sediment. Geol., 135, 255–264, 2000.
Navy METOC: http://www.metoc.gov.au/products/wms_globwave.php (last access: 14 November 2014), 2014.
NDRRMC (National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council): SitRep No. 107 Effects of Typhoon "YOLANDA" (HAIYAN), 14 March 2014, NDRRMC, Quezon City, Philippines, available at: http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/1329/Effects_of_Typhoon_YOLANDA_(HAIYAN)_SitRep_No_107_14MAR2014.pdf (last access: 19 March 2014), 2014.
Nott, J.: Tropical cyclones and the evolution of the sedimentary coast of Northern Australia, J. Coastal Res., 22, 49–62, 2006.
PAGASA: Climate change in the Philippines, Climatology and Agrometeorology Division, Quezon City, Philippines, 2011.
PAGASA: Storm surge occurences during the passage of Typhoon Yolanda on November 8, 2013 in selected areas of Leyte and Samar, Report of PAGASA Stride team, 33 pp., 2014.
Phantuwongraj, S., Choowong, M., Nanayama, F., Hisada, K.-I., Charusiri, P., Chutakositkanon, V., Pailoplee, S., and Chabangbon, A.: Coastal geomorphic conditions and styles of storm surge washover deposits from Southern Thailand, Geomorphology, 192, 43–58, 2013.
Pilarczyk, J., Horton, B., Soria, J. L., Switzer, A., Siringan, F., Fritz, H. M., Khan, N., Ildefonso, S., Doctor, A. A., and Garcia, M.: Micropaleontology of the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan overwash sediments from the Leyte Gulf, Philippines, Sediment. Geol., 339, 104–114, 2016.
Pun, I. F., Lin, I. I., and Lo, M. H.: Recent increase in high tropical cyclone heat potential area in the Western North Pacific Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 4680–4684, 2013.
Quintela, M., Costa, P. J. M., Fatela, F., Drago, T., Hoska, N., Andrade, C., and Freitas, M. C.: The AD 1755 tsunami deposits onshore and offshore of Algarve (south Portugal): sediment transport interpretations based on the study of Foraminifera assemblages, Quatern. Int., 408, 123–138, 2016.
Rangin, C., Müller, C., and Porth, H.: Neogene geodynamic evolution of the Visayan Region, Geologisches Jahrbuch, Reihe B, 70, 7–27, 1989.
Reyes, M., Engel, M., May, S. M., Brill, D., and Brückner, H.: Life and death after Super Typhoon Haiyan, Coral Reefs, 34, p. 419, 2015.
Richmond, B. M., Watt, S., Buckley, M., Jaffe, B., Gelfenbaum, G., and Morton, R. A.: Recent storm and tsunami coarse-clast deposit characteristics, southeast Hawaii, Mar. Geol., 283, 79–89, 2011.
Roeber, V. and Bricker, J.: Destructive tsunami-like wave generated by surf beat over a coral reef during Typhoon Haiyan, Nature Communications, 6, 1–9, 2015.
Scheffers, A., Engel, M., Scheffers, S., Squire, P., and Kelletat, D.: Beach ridge systems – archives for Holocene coastal events?, Prog. Phys. Geog., 36, 5–37, 2012.
Scheffers, A. M., Engel, M., May, S. M., Scheffers, S. R., Joannes-Boyau, R., Hänßler, E., Kennedy, K., Kelletat, D., Brückner, H., Vött, A., Schellmann, G., Schäbitz, F., Radtke, U., Sommer, B., Willershäuser, T., and Felis, T.: Potential and limits of combining studies of coarse and fine-grained sediments for the coastal event history of a Caribbean carbonate environment, Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 388, 503–531, 2014.
Schwartz, R. K.: Bedform and stratification characteristics of some modern small-scale washover sand bodies, Sedimentology, 29, 835–849, 1982.
Sedgwick, P. E. and Davis, R. A.: Stratigraphy of washover deposits in Florida: implications for recognition in the stratigraphic record, Mar. Geol., 200, 31–48, 2003.
Shanmugam, G.: Process-sedimentological challenges in distinguishing paleo-tsunami deposits, Nat. Hazards, 63, 5–30, 2012.
Soria, J. L. A., Switzer, A. D., Villanoy, C. L., Fritz, H. M., Bilgera, P. H. T., Cabrera, O. C., Siringan, F. P., Yacat-Sta. Maria, Y., Ramos, R. D., and Fernandez, I. Q.: Repeat storm surge disasters of Typhoon Haiyan and its 1897 predecessor in the Philippines, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 31–48, 2016.
Spiske, M. and Halley, R. B.: A coral-rubble ridge as evidence for hurricane overwash, Anegada (British Virgin Islands), Adv. Geosci., 38, 9–20, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-38-9-2014, 2014.
Switzer, A. D. and Jones, B. G.: Setup, deposition, and sedimentary characteristics of two storm overwash deposits, Abrahams Bosom Beach, southeastern Australia, J. Coastal Res., 24, 189–200, 2008.
Switzer, A., Srinivasalu, S., Thangadurai, N., and Ram Mohan, V.: Bedding structures in the Indian tsunami deposits that provide clues to the dynamics of tsunami inundation, Geological Society, London, Special Publications, 361, 61–77, 2012.
Tajima, Y., Yasuda, T., Pacheco, B. M., Cruz, E. C., Kawasaki, K., Nobuoka, H., Miyamoto, M., Asano, Y., Arikawa, T., Ortigas, N. M., Aquino, R., Mata, W., Valdez, J., and Briones, F.: Initial report of JSCE-PICE joint survey on the storm surge disaster caused by Typhoon Haiyan, Coast. Eng. J., 56, 14500065, https://doi.org/10.1142/S0578563414500065, 2014.
Tuttle, M. P., Ruffman, A., Anderson, T., and Jeter, H.: Distinguishing tsunami from storm deposits in eastern North America: the 1929 Grand Banks Tsunami versus the 1991 Halloween Storm, Seismol. Res. Lett., 75, 117–131, 2004.
Wang, P. and Horwitz, M. H.: Erosional and depositional characteristics of regional overwash deposits caused by multiple hurricanes, Sedimentology, 54, 545–564, 2007.
Weiss, R.: The mystery of boulders moved by tsunamis and storms, Mar. Geol., 295–298, 28–33, 2012.
Williams, H. F. L.: Stratigraphy, sedimentology and microfossil content of Hurricane Rita storm surge deposits in Southwest Louisiana, J. Coastal Res., 25, 1041–1051, 2009.
Williams, H. F. L.: Storm surge deposition by Hurricane Ike on the McFaddin National Wildlife Refuge, Texas: Implications for palaeotempestology studies, J. Foramin. Res., 40, 210–219, 2010.
Williams, H. F. L.: Contrasting styles of Hurricane Irene washover sedimentation on three east coast barrier islands: Cape Lookout, North Carolina; Assateague Island, Virginia; and Fire Island, New York, Geomorphology, 231, 182–192, 2015.
Woodruff, J. D., Donnelly, J. P., Mohrig, D., and Geyer, W. R.: Reconstructing relative flooding intensities responsible for hurricane-induced deposits from Laguna Playa Grande, Vieques, Puerto Rico, Geology, 36, 391–394, 2008.
Short summary
Sediments and landforms related to Typhoon Haiyan were documented for coastal settings on the Philippines. Sand sheets are restricted to coasts with strong inundation, while washover fans due to overtopping waves were more abundant. Wave-generated coral ridges are reported from an intertidal reef platform. As generated by an exceptional storm, documented signatures like the limited landward extent of sand sheets may potentially help to distinguish storm and tsunami in the geological record.
Sediments and landforms related to Typhoon Haiyan were documented for coastal settings on the...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint