Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-675-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-675-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
30 Jan 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 30 Jan 2026
| 30 Jan 2026
Flood risks to the financial stability of residential mortgage borrowers: an integrated modeling approach
Institute for Risk Management and Insurance Innovation, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, USA
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, USA
Helena M. Garcia
Environment, Ecology, and Energy Program, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27514, USA
Antonia Sebastian
Environment, Ecology, and Energy Program, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27514, USA
Department of Earth, Marine, and Environmental Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27514, USA
Hope Thomson
School of Government Environmental Finance Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27514, USA
Harrison B. Zeff
Institute for Risk Management and Insurance Innovation, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, USA
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, USA
Gregory W. Characklis
Institute for Risk Management and Insurance Innovation, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, USA
Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, USA
Related authors
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Julius Schlumberger, Tristian R. Stolte, Helena M. Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip J. Ward, Marleen C. de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6132, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-6132, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
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Flood vulnerability is too often analysed for one moment in time (static), whereas vulnerability is highly dynamic. We reviewed 67 articles for their flood vulnerability methodologies and found that traditional methods for unraveling flood vulnerability deal differently with dynamic vulnerability. Each method seems to lend itself well for specific concepts of dynamics and different aspects of vulnerability. We recommend to use the complementary strengths of these approaches to improve the field.
Hunter C. Quintal, Antonia Sebastian, Marc L. Serre, Wiebke S. Jäger, and Marleen C. de Ruiter
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2870, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2870, 2025
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High quality weather event datasets are crucial to community preparedness and resilience. Researchers create such datasets using clustering methods, which we advance by addressing current limitation in the relationship between space and time. We propose a method to determine the appropriate factor by which to resample the spatial resolution of the data prior to clustering. Ultimately, our approach increases the ability to detect historic heatwaves over current methods.
Julius Schlumberger, Tristian Stolte, Helena Margaret Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Wiebke Jäger, Philip Ward, Marleen de Ruiter, Robert Šakić Trogrlić, Annegien Tijssen, and Mariana Madruga de Brito
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-850, 2025
Preprint archived
Short summary
Short summary
The risk flood of flood impacts is dynamic as society continuously responds to specific events or ongoing developments. We analyzed 28 studies that assess such dynamics of vulnerability. Most research uses surveys and basic statistics data, while integrated, flexible models are seldom used. The studies struggle to link specific events or developments to the observed changes. Our findings highlight needs and possible directions towards a better assessment of vulnerability dynamics.
Yi Victor Wang and Antonia Sebastian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 4103–4118, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-4103-2022, 2022
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In this article, we propose an equivalent hazard magnitude scale and a method to evaluate and compare the strengths of natural hazard events across different hazard types, including earthquakes, tsunamis, floods, droughts, forest fires, tornadoes, cold waves, heat waves, and tropical cyclones. With our method, we determine that both the February 2021 North American cold wave event and Hurricane Harvey in 2017 were equivalent to a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in hazard strength.
William Mobley, Antonia Sebastian, Russell Blessing, Wesley E. Highfield, Laura Stearns, and Samuel D. Brody
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 807–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-807-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-807-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In southeast Texas, flood impacts are exacerbated by increases in impervious surfaces, human inaction, outdated FEMA-defined floodplains and modeling assumptions, and changing environmental conditions. The current flood maps are inadequate indicators of flood risk, especially in urban areas. This study proposes a novel method to model flood hazard and impact in urban areas. Specifically, we used novel flood risk modeling techniques to produce annualized flood hazard maps.
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Executive editor
Flooding can create severe and immediate financial strain for households, particularly when property damage is uninsured and access to affordable credit is limited. This study introduces a simulation-based framework that links flood impacts directly to household financial conditions, revealing how flood damage can translate into credit constraints through negative equity, liquidity shortfalls, or both. Applying the framework to a series of major floods in North Carolina shows that a substantial share of flood-related property damage was uninsured and that many affected mortgage borrowers lacked the financial capacity to fund repairs, placing their recovery at risk. By identifying which households are most likely to face unmet funding needs after flooding, this work provides new insight into how climate-related hazards can propagate through housing and credit systems, with implications for financial stability and social resilience. Although projections are subject to uncertainty due to data limitations, the framework offers a valuable tool for exploring risk management and policy interventions, and highlights the urgent need for improved data coordination to better assess and manage climate-related financial risks.
Flooding can create severe and immediate financial strain for households, particularly when...
Short summary
Uninsured flood damage can destabilize household finances, particularly when access to affordable credit is limited. Across seven floods in North Carolina, 66% of damage was found to be uninsured. Among affected mortgage borrowers, 32% lacked sufficient income or collateral to finance repairs through home equity-based borrowing, making their recovery uncertain. These findings suggest that uninsured flood damage poses a serious and under-recognized threat to residential mortgage borrowers.
Uninsured flood damage can destabilize household finances, particularly when access to...
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