Articles | Volume 26, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-675-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-675-2026
Research article
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30 Jan 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 30 Jan 2026

Flood risks to the financial stability of residential mortgage borrowers: an integrated modeling approach

Kieran P. Fitzmaurice, Helena M. Garcia, Antonia Sebastian, Hope Thomson, Harrison B. Zeff, and Gregory W. Characklis

Model code and software

Model code Kieran P. Fitzmaurice https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15313723

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Executive editor
Flooding can create severe and immediate financial strain for households, particularly when property damage is uninsured and access to affordable credit is limited. This study introduces a simulation-based framework that links flood impacts directly to household financial conditions, revealing how flood damage can translate into credit constraints through negative equity, liquidity shortfalls, or both. Applying the framework to a series of major floods in North Carolina shows that a substantial share of flood-related property damage was uninsured and that many affected mortgage borrowers lacked the financial capacity to fund repairs, placing their recovery at risk. By identifying which households are most likely to face unmet funding needs after flooding, this work provides new insight into how climate-related hazards can propagate through housing and credit systems, with implications for financial stability and social resilience. Although projections are subject to uncertainty due to data limitations, the framework offers a valuable tool for exploring risk management and policy interventions, and highlights the urgent need for improved data coordination to better assess and manage climate-related financial risks.
Short summary
Uninsured flood damage can destabilize household finances, particularly when access to affordable credit is limited. Across seven floods in North Carolina, 66% of damage was found to be uninsured. Among affected mortgage borrowers, 32% lacked sufficient income or collateral to finance repairs through home equity-based borrowing, making their recovery uncertain. These findings suggest that uninsured flood damage poses a serious and under-recognized threat to residential mortgage borrowers. 
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