Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
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17 Sep 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 17 Sep 2026
| 17 Sep 2026
Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 2: Conditional and temporal probability maps
Andrea Bevilacqua
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, 56125, Italy
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, 56125, Italy
Patrizia Landi
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, 56125, Italy
Paola Del Carlo
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, 56125, Italy
Massimo Pompilio
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, Pisa, 56125, Italy
Peter Baxter
Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB2 0SR, United Kingdom
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This study investigates how far projectiles are thrown during major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli volcano. The researchers analyzed 67 events spanning about 150 years to study the distances, directions, and areas affected by these projectiles, based on an extensive review of historical, observational, and monitoring data, and by using an innovative approach to map affected areas.
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Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Emmie M. Bonilauri, Andrew J. L. Harris, Matteo Cerminara, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Augusto Neri, Raphaël Paris, Marco Pistolesi, Matteo Trolese, Juan F. Rodríguez-Gálvez, Daniele Andronico, Antonella Bertagnini, Sonia Calvari, Daniele Casalbore, Michael Cassidy, Riccardo Civico, Elisabetta Del Bello, Alessio Di Roberto, Alessandro Fornaciai, Anita Grezio, Lucia Gurioli, Carl B. Harbitz, Giorgio Lacanna, Finn Løvholt, Michael Marani, Massimo Pompilio, Tullio Ricci, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Roger Urgeles, and Marija Voloschina
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We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
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This study investigates how far projectiles are thrown during major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli volcano. The researchers analyzed 67 events spanning about 150 years to study the distances, directions, and areas affected by these projectiles, based on an extensive review of historical, observational, and monitoring data, and by using an innovative approach to map affected areas.
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This study presents a Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Stromboli, Italy, quantifying long-term risks from landslide-generated tsunamis. By combining new simulation databases with expert-derived probabilities, it introduces a method to model hazard uncertainty. Results show significant risk to coastal areas over 50 years, with high probabilities of inundation exceeding 0.5 m and notable chances of severe impacts at key locations.
Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Emmie M. Bonilauri, Andrew J. L. Harris, Matteo Cerminara, Tomaso Esposti Ongaro, Augusto Neri, Raphaël Paris, Marco Pistolesi, Matteo Trolese, Juan F. Rodríguez-Gálvez, Daniele Andronico, Antonella Bertagnini, Sonia Calvari, Daniele Casalbore, Michael Cassidy, Riccardo Civico, Elisabetta Del Bello, Alessio Di Roberto, Alessandro Fornaciai, Anita Grezio, Lucia Gurioli, Carl B. Harbitz, Giorgio Lacanna, Finn Løvholt, Michael Marani, Massimo Pompilio, Tullio Ricci, Mauro Rosi, Laura Sandri, Roger Urgeles, and Marija Voloschina
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-1310, 2026
Short summary
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This study examines tsunami hazards linked to volcanic activity at Stromboli volcano, Italy and is aimed at developing a first Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment. In particular, in this study a review identified 16 tsunamis (1879–2024), mostly linked to paroxysmal eruptions. Expert elicitation suggests tsunamigenic landslides may recur every 10–12 years, with high likelihood along the Sciara del Fuoco, especially at mid-elevations and moderate volumes, informing future hazard assessment.
Andrea Bevilacqua, Alvaro Aravena, Willy Aspinall, Antonio Costa, Sue Mahony, Augusto Neri, Stephen Sparks, and Brittain Hill
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3329–3348, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3329-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate through first-order kinetic energy models, the minimum volume and mass of a pyroclastic density current generated at the Aso caldera that might affect any of five distal infrastructure sites. These target sites are all located 115–145 km from the caldera, but in well-separated directions. Our constraints of volume and mass are then compared with the scale of Aso-4, the largest caldera-forming eruption of Aso.
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Editorial statement
This pair of manuscripts (2025-6539 and 6540) constitute a significant step forward in the modelling of ballistic hazards from volcanic explosive activity at a volcano that has an unparalleled dataset (collated by these authors, building on previous work) and where there is considerable tourist activity particularly in the summer months (with hiking trails - for which this paper assesses the hazard - going to the active summit craters). There is therefore both considerable scientific interest in this paper (in the methods and moving the field forward) but also wider public interest.
This pair of manuscripts (2025-6539 and 6540) constitute a significant step forward in the...
Short summary
Using historical records and mathematical models, researchers created maps that show the probability of different areas being affected by ballistic fallout from volcanic eruptions in Stromboli, Italy. Hazard maps were developed for both major explosions and paroxysms as well as for the two categories combined together by assuming a relative proportion. By using a temporal model of the explosive events, first probability maps of ballistic fallout in the next 10 and 50 years are finally presented.
Using historical records and mathematical models, researchers created maps that show the...
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