Articles | Volume 26, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026
Research article
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17 Sep 2026
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 17 Sep 2026

Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 2: Conditional and temporal probability maps

Andrea Bevilacqua, Augusto Neri, Patrizia Landi, Paola Del Carlo, Massimo Pompilio, and Peter Baxter

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Editorial statement
This pair of manuscripts (2025-6539 and 6540) constitute a significant step forward in the modelling of ballistic hazards from volcanic explosive activity at a volcano that has an unparalleled dataset (collated by these authors, building on previous work) and where there is considerable tourist activity particularly in the summer months (with hiking trails - for which this paper assesses the hazard - going to the active summit craters). There is therefore both considerable scientific interest in this paper (in the methods and moving the field forward) but also wider public interest.
Short summary
Using historical records and mathematical models, researchers created maps that show the probability of different areas being affected by ballistic fallout from volcanic eruptions in Stromboli, Italy. Hazard maps were developed for both major explosions and paroxysms as well as for the two categories combined together by assuming a relative proportion. By using a temporal model of the explosive events, first probability maps of ballistic fallout in the next 10 and 50 years are finally presented.
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