Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 2: Conditional and temporal probability maps

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Neri, Augusto; Landi, Patrizia; Del Carlo, Paola; Pompilio, Massimo; Baxter, Peter

doi:10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026

Articles | Volume 26, issue 9

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 26, issue 9

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

17 Sep 2026

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 17 Sep 2026

Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 2: Conditional and temporal probability maps

Andrea Bevilacqua, Augusto Neri, Patrizia Landi, Paola Del Carlo, Massimo Pompilio, and Peter Baxter

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026-supplement

Data sets

Database of probability maps supporting: "Quantifying ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty assessment: 2. probability maps" A. Bevilacqua et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14268921

Model code and software

Software supporting: Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification: 2. Conditional and temporal probability maps A. Bevilacqua and A. Neri https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21476780

Editorial statement

This pair of manuscripts (2025-6539 and 6540) constitute a significant step forward in the modelling of ballistic hazards from volcanic explosive activity at a volcano that has an unparalleled dataset (collated by these authors, building on previous work) and where there is considerable tourist activity particularly in the summer months (with hiking trails - for which this paper assesses the hazard - going to the active summit craters). There is therefore both considerable scientific interest in this paper (in the methods and moving the field forward) but also wider public interest.