Articles | Volume 25, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025
Research article
 | 
06 Mar 2025
Research article |  | 06 Mar 2025

Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India

Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts

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Cited articles

Aerts, J. C. J. H., Botzen, W. J., Clarke, K. C., Cutter, S. L., Hall, J. W., Merz, B., Michel-Kerjan, E., Mysiak, J., Surminski, S., and Kunreuther, H.: Integrating human behaviour dynamics into flood disaster risk assessment, Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 193–199, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0085-1, 2018. 
Agricultural Census India: https://agcensus.dacnet.nic.in/ (last access: 10 December 2023), 2023a. 
Agricultural Census India: http://agcensus1.da.gov.in (last access: 10 December 2023), 2023b. 
Anderegg, W. R. L., Trugman, A. T., Badgley, G., Konings, A. G., and Shaw, J.: Divergent forest sensitivity to repeated extreme droughts, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 1091–1095, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00919-1, 2020. 
Axtell, R. L. and Farmer, J. D.: Agent-based modeling in economics and finance: Past, present, and future, J. Econ. Lit., https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.20221319, 1–101, 2022. 
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Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.
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