Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results  in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based  modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India

Kalthof, Maurice W. M. L.; de Bruijn, Jens; de Moel, Hans; Kreibich, Heidi; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.

doi:10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025

Articles | Volume 25, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Drought, society, and ecosystems (NHESS/BG/GC/HESS inter-journal...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1013-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 25, issue 3

Research article

|

06 Mar 2025

Research article |

| 06 Mar 2025

Adaptive behavior of farmers under consecutive droughts results in more vulnerable farmers: a large-scale agent-based modeling analysis in the Bhima basin, India

Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof, Jens de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Heidi Kreibich, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts

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Oct 2024	40	10	4	54
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Jan 2025	48	22	12	82
Feb 2025	30	8	2	40
Mar 2025	192	52	5	249
Apr 2025	80	31	3	114
May 2025	91	20	0	111
Jun 2025	117	32	3	152
Jul 2025	138	47	5	190
Aug 2025	145	35	1	181
Sep 2025	485	46	7	538
Oct 2025	90	53	4	147
Nov 2025	112	69	21	202
Dec 2025	132	144	10	286
Jan 2026	173	54	33	260
Feb 2026	92	31	12	135
Mar 2026	136	43	10	189
Apr 2026	101	33	12	146
May 2026	2	2	0	4

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 05 Jun 2024)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Jun 2024	101	28	10	139
Jul 2024	134	36	10	180
Aug 2024	158	54	26	238
Sep 2024	84	38	10	132
Oct 2024	40	10	4	54
Nov 2024	32	22	0	54
Dec 2024	16	12	0	28
Jan 2025	48	22	12	82
Feb 2025	30	8	2	40
Mar 2025	192	52	5	249
Apr 2025	80	31	3	114
May 2025	91	20	0	111
Jun 2025	117	32	3	152
Jul 2025	138	47	5	190
Aug 2025	145	35	1	181
Sep 2025	485	46	7	538
Oct 2025	90	53	4	147
Nov 2025	112	69	21	202
Dec 2025	132	144	10	286
Jan 2026	173	54	33	260
Feb 2026	92	31	12	135
Mar 2026	136	43	10	189
Apr 2026	101	33	12	146
May 2026	2	2	0	4

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Short summary

Our study explores how farmers in India's Bhima basin respond to consecutive droughts. We simulated farmers' individual choices – like changing crops or digging wells – and their effects on profits, yields, and water resources. Results show these adaptations, while improving incomes, ultimately increase drought vulnerability and damage. Such insights emphasize the need for alternative adaptations and highlight the value of socio-hydrological models in shaping policies to lessen drought impacts.