Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024
Research article
 | 
29 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 29 Nov 2024

Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe

Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine

Download

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on nhess-2024-57', Anonymous Referee #1, 10 Jun 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on nhess-2024-57', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Jun 2024
  • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Stephanie Bohlmann, 23 Aug 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (26 Aug 2024) by Yves Bühler
AR by Stephanie Bohlmann on behalf of the Authors (27 Aug 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 Aug 2024) by Yves Bühler
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (09 Sep 2024)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (09 Sep 2024) by Yves Bühler
AR by Stephanie Bohlmann on behalf of the Authors (20 Sep 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Publish as is (29 Sep 2024) by Yves Bühler
AR by Stephanie Bohlmann on behalf of the Authors (30 Sep 2024)  Author's response   Manuscript 

Post-review adjustments

AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval
AA by Stephanie Bohlmann on behalf of the Authors (26 Nov 2024)   Author's adjustment   Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (27 Nov 2024) by Yves Bühler
Download
Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint