Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4225-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 24, issue 12
Research article
 | 
29 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 29 Nov 2024

Statistical calibration of probabilistic medium-range Fire Weather Index forecasts in Europe

Stephanie Bohlmann and Marko Laine

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Latest update: 28 Aug 2025
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Short summary
Probabilistic ensemble forecasts of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) can be used to estimate the possible wildfire risk but require post-processing to provide accurate and reliable predictions. This article presents a calibration method using non-homogeneous Gaussian regression to statistically post-process FWI forecasts up to 15 d. Calibration improves the forecast especially at short lead times and in regions with high fire risk.
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