Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
11 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 11 Nov 2024
| 11 Nov 2024
Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia
Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
ERN International, Mexico City, Mexico
Mario Ordaz
ERN International, Mexico City, Mexico
Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico
Benjamín Huerta
ERN International, Mexico City, Mexico
Osvaldo Garay
ERN International, Mexico City, Mexico
Carlos Avelar
ERN International, Mexico City, Mexico
Ettore Fagà
RED Risk Engineering + Development, Pavia, Italy
Mohsen Kohrangi
RED Risk Engineering + Development, Pavia, Italy
Paola Ceresa
RED Risk Engineering + Development, Pavia, Italy
Georgios Triantafyllou
RED Risk Engineering + Development, Pavia, Italy
Ulugbek T. Begaliev
International University of Innovation Technologies, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
Related authors
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Athanasios N. Papadopoulos, Philippe Roth, Laurentiu Danciu, Paolo Bergamo, Francesco Panzera, Donat Fäh, Carlo Cauzzi, Blaise Duvernay, Alireza Khodaverdian, Pierino Lestuzzi, Ömer Odabaşi, Ettore Fagà, Paolo Bazzurro, Michèle Marti, Nadja Valenzuela, Irina Dallo, Nicolas Schmid, Philip Kästli, Florian Haslinger, and Stefan Wiemer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3561–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karaev, Paola Ceresa, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia (SFRARR) programme, funded by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR, a regionally consistent probabilistic multi-hazard and multi-asset risk assessment has been developed. This paper describes the preparation of the input datasets (earthquake catalogue and active-fault database) required for the implementation of the probabilistic seismic hazard model.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Valerio Poggi, Stefano Parolai, Natalya Silacheva, Anatoly Ischuk, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Zainalobudin Kobuliev, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Roman Ibragimov, Japar Karayev, Paola Ceresa, Marco Santulin, and Paolo Bazzurro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-132, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-132, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A regionally consistent probabilistic risk assessment for multiple hazards and assets was recently developed as part of the "Strengthening Financial Resilience and Accelerating Risk Reduction in Central Asia" (SFRARR) program, promoted by the European Union in collaboration with the World Bank and GFDRR. This paper describes the preparation of the source model and presents the main results of the probabilistic earthquake model for the Central Asian countries.
Antonella Peresan, Chiara Scaini, Sergey Tyagunov, and Paola Ceresa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-156, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-156, 2023
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
Short summary
Short summary
The experience collected during a capacity building experience in Central Asia is illustrated, which consisted in the organization of a series of training workshops devoted to the different components of risk assessment, focused on earthquakes, floods and selected landslide scenarios. The activity consisted of five country-based workshops on exposure assessment in each of the Countries of Central Asia, plus three regional scale thematic workshops on hazard, vulnerability and risk modelling.
Gabriele Coccia, Paola Ceresa, Gianbattista Bussi, Simona Denaro, Paolo Bazzurro, Mario Martina, Ettore Fagà, Carlos Avelar, Mario Ordaz, Benjamin Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Zhanar Raimbekova, Kanatbek Abdrakhmatov, Sitora Mirzokhonova, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, and Vladimir Belikov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-157, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-157, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
A fully probabilistic flood risk assessment was carried out for five Central Asia countries for supporting regional and national risk financing and insurance applications. The paper presents the first high-resolution regional-scale transboundary flood risk assessment study in the area aiming at providing tools for decision-making.
Laura Peruzza, Raffaele Azzaro, Robin Gee, Salvatore D'Amico, Horst Langer, Giuseppe Lombardo, Bruno Pace, Marco Pagani, Francesco Panzera, Mario Ordaz, Miguel Leonardo Suarez, and Giuseppina Tusa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1999–2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1999-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1999-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
It is well known that volcanoes and earthquakes are associated, and some active volcanoes cause damaging earthquakes. Nonetheless, volcanoes usually are not pinpointed on a hazard map, as the effects of shallow, volcanic earthquakes can be overshadowed by stronger tectonic earthquakes in the region, particularly when long exposure periods are considered. In this study we faced some challenges with software implementations and original concept scheme for an original PSHA at Mt. Etna, Italy.
Related subject area
Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies, Socioeconomic and Management Aspects
Using a convection-permitting climate model to assess wine grape productivity: two case studies in Italy
Volcanic risk ranking and regional mapping of the Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes
Critical infrastructure resilience: a guide for building indicator systems based on a multi-criteria framework with a focus on implementable actions
Where to start with climate-smart forest management? Climatic risk for forest-based mitigation
Dynamic response of pile–slab retaining wall structure under rockfall impact
Urban growth and spatial segregation increase disaster risk: lessons learned from the 2023 disaster on the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil
Enhancement of state response capability and famine mitigation: A comparative analysis of two drought events in northern China during the Ming dynasty
An impact-chain-based exploration of multi-hazard vulnerability dynamics: the multi-hazard of floods and the COVID-19 pandemic in Romania
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany
Earthquake insurance in Iran: solvency of local insurers in light of current market practices
Micro-business participation in collective flood adaptation: lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR)
Flood risk assessment through large-scale modeling under uncertainty
Migration as a Hidden Risk Factor in Seismic Fatality: A Spatial Modeling Approach to the Chi-Chi Earthquake and Suburban Syndrome
Risk reduction through managed retreat? Investigating enabling conditions and assessing resettlement effects on community resilience in Metro Manila
Brief communication: Lessons learned and experiences gained from building up a global survey on societal resilience to changing droughts
Regional seismic risk assessment based on ground conditions in Uzbekistan
Unveiling transboundary challenges in river flood risk management: learning from the Ciliwung River basin
Quantitative study of storm surge risk assessment in an undeveloped coastal area of China based on deep learning and geographic information system techniques: a case study of Double Moon Bay
Review article: Insuring the green economy against natural hazards – charting research frontiers in vulnerability assessment
Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal
Simulating multi-hazard event sets for life cycle consequence analysis
Analysis of the effects of urban micro-scale vulnerabilities on tsunami evacuation using an agent-based model – case study in the city of Iquique, Chile
Factors of influence on flood risk perceptions related to Hurricane Dorian: an assessment of heuristics, time dynamics, and accuracy of risk perceptions
Current status of water-related planning for climate change adaptation in the Spree River basin, Germany
Anticipating a risky future: long short-term memory (LSTM) models for spatiotemporal extrapolation of population data in areas prone to earthquakes and tsunamis in Lima, Peru
A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings
Ready, set, go! An anticipatory action system against droughts
Study on seismic risk assessment model of water supply systems in mainland China
Mapping current and future flood exposure using a 5 m flood model and climate change projections
A New Method for Calculating Highway Blocking due to High Impact Weather Conditions
Brief communication: On the environmental impacts of the 2023 floods in Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia
Towards a global impact-based forecasting model for tropical cyclones
Identifying vulnerable populations in urban society: a case study in a flood-prone district of Wuhan, China
An assessment of potential improvements in social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness from digital technologies
Spatial accessibility of emergency medical services under inclement weather: a case study in Beijing, China
Review article: Current approaches and critical issues in multi-risk recovery planning of urban areas exposed to natural hazards
Simulating the effects of sea level rise and soil salinization on adaptation and migration decisions in Mozambique
Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses
Compound flood impacts from Hurricane Sandy on New York City in climate-driven storylines
Regional-scale landslide risk assessment in Central Asia
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems
The role of response efficacy and self-efficacy in disaster preparedness actions for vulnerable households
Scientists as storytellers: the explanatory power of stories told about environmental crises
Back analysis of a building collapse under snow and rain loads in a Mediterranean area
Between global risk reduction goals, scientific-technical capabilities and local realities: a novel modular approach for multi-risk assessment
Assessment of building damage and risk under extreme flood scenarios in Shanghai
Mangrove ecosystem properties regulate high water levels in a river delta
Laura T. Massano, Giorgia Fosser, Marco Gaetani, and Cécile Caillaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4293–4315, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4293-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Traditional wine-growing regions are threatened by expected climate change. Climate models and observations are used to calculate bioclimatic indices based on both temperature and precipitation. These indices are correlated with grape productivity in two wine-growing regions in Italy. This analysis paves the way for using climate models to study how climate change will affect wine production in the future.
María-Paz Reyes-Hardy, Luigia Sara Di Maio, Lucia Dominguez, Corine Frischknecht, Sébastien Biass, Leticia Freitas Guimarães, Amiel Nieto-Torres, Manuela Elissondo, Gabriela Pedreros, Rigoberto Aguilar, Álvaro Amigo, Sebastián García, Pablo Forte, and Costanza Bonadonna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 4267–4291, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-4267-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Central Volcanic Zone of the Andes (CVZA) spans four countries with 59 volcanoes. We identify those with the most intense and frequent eruptions and the highest potential impact that require risk mitigation actions. Using multiple risk factors, we encourage the use of regional volcanic risk assessments to analyse the level of preparedness especially of transboundary volcanoes. We hope that our work will motivate further collaborative studies and promote cooperation between CVZA countries.
Zhuyu Yang, Bruno Barroca, Ahmed Mebarki, Katia Laffréchine, Hélène Dolidon, and Lionel Lilas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3723–3753, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3723-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To integrate resilience assessment into practical management, this study designs a step-by-step guide that enables managers of critical infrastructure (CI) to create specific indicator systems tailored to real cases. This guide considers the consequences of hazards to CI and the cost–benefit analysis and side effects of implementable actions. The assessment results assist managers, as they are based on a multi-criterion framework that addresses several factors valued in practical management.
Natalie Piazza, Luca Malanchini, Edoardo Nevola, and Giorgio Vacchiano
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3579–3595, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3579-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Natural disturbances are projected to intensify in the future, threatening our forests and their functions such as wood production, protection against natural hazards, and carbon sequestration. By assessing risks to forests from wind and fire damage, alongside the vulnerability of carbon, it is possible to prioritize forest stands at high risk. In this study, we propose a novel methodological approach to support climate-smart forest management and inform better decision-making.
Peng Zou, Gang Luo, Yuzhang Bi, and Hanhua Xu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3497–3517, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3497-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The pile–slab retaining wall, an innovative rockfall shield, is widely used in China's western mountains. However, its dynamic impact response and resistance remain unclear due to structural complexity. A comprehensive dynamic analysis of the structure, under various impacts, was done using the finite-element method. The maximum impact energy that the structure can withstand is 905 kJ, and various indexes were obtained.
Cassiano Bastos Moroz and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3299–3314, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3299-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the influence of urban processes on the impacts of the 2023 disaster that hit the North Coast of São Paulo, Brazil. The impacts of the disaster were largely associated with rapid urban expansion over the last 3 decades, with a recent occupation of risky areas. Moreover, lower-income neighborhoods were considerably more severely impacted, which evidences their increased exposure to such events. These results highlight the strong association between disaster risk and urban poverty.
Fangyu Tian, Yun Su, Xudong Chen, and Le Tao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-159, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study developed a model of extreme drought-induced famine processes and response mechanisms in ancient China. Spatial distribution of drought and famine during the Chenghua Drought and the Wanli Drought was constructed. By categorizing drought-affected counties into three types, a comparative analysis of the differences in famine severity and response effectiveness between the Chenghua and Wanli droughts was conducted.
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu and Iuliana Armaș
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2895–2922, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2895-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study delves into the dynamics of vulnerability within a multi-hazard context, proposing an enhanced impact-chain-based framework that analyses the augmentation of vulnerability. The case study refers to the flood events and the COVID-19 pandemic that affected Romania (2020–2021). The impact chain shows that (1) the unforeseen implications of impacts, (2) the wrongful action of adaptation options, and (3) inaction can form the basis for increased vulnerability.
Marie-Luise Zenker, Philip Bubeck, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2837–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.
Mohsen Ghafory-Ashtiany and Hooman Motamed
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2707–2726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2707-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Iranian insurers have been offering earthquake coverage since the 1990s. However, despite international best practices, they still do not use modern methods for risk pricing and management. As such, they seem to be accumulating seismic risk over time. This paper examines the viability of this market in Iran by comparing the local market practices with international best practices in earthquake risk pricing (catastrophe modeling) and insurance risk management (European Solvency II regime).
Javier Revilla Diez, Roxana Leitold, Van Tran, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2425–2440, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2425-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Micro-businesses, often overlooked in adaptation research, show surprising willingness to contribute to collective adaptation despite limited finances and local support. Based on a study in Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, approximately 70 % are ready for awareness campaigns, and 39 % would provide financial support if costs were shared. These findings underscore the need for increased involvement of micro-businesses in local adaptation plans to enhance collective adaptive capacity.
Kang He, Qing Yang, Xinyi Shen, Elias Dimitriou, Angeliki Mentzafou, Christina Papadaki, Maria Stoumboudi, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2375–2382, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe.
Luciano Pavesi, Elena Volpi, and Aldo Fiori
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-114, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
Several sources of uncertainty affect flood risk estimation for reliable assessment for investors, insurance and risk management. Here, we consider the uncertainty of large-scale flood hazard modeling, providing a range of risk values that show significant variability depending on geomorphic factors and land use types. This allows to identify the critical points where single value estimates may underestimate the risk, and the areas of vulnerability to prioritize risk reduction efforts.
Tzu-Hsin Karen Chen, Kuan-Hui Elaine Lin, Thung-Hong Lin, Gee-Yu Liu, Chin-Hsun Yeh, and Diana Maria Ceballos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1493, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1493, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study reveals migration patterns as a critical factor in seismic fatalities. Analyzing the Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan, we find that lower income and a higher indigenous population at migrants' origins are correlated with higher fatalities at their destinations. This underscores the need for affordable and safe housing in the outskirts of megacities, where migrants from lower-income and historically marginalized groups are more likely to reside due to precarious employment conditions.
Hannes Lauer, Carmeli Marie C. Chaves, Evelyn Lorenzo, Sonia Islam, and Jörn Birkmann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2243–2261, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2243-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In many urban areas, people face high exposure to hazards. Resettling them to safer locations becomes a major strategy, not least because of climate change. This paper dives into the success factors of government-led resettlement in Manila and finds surprising results which challenge the usual narrative and fuel the conversation on resettlement as an adaptation strategy. Contrary to expectations, the location – whether urban or rural – of the new home is less important than safety from floods.
Marina Batalini de Macedo, Marcos Roberto Benso, Karina Simone Sass, Eduardo Mario Mendiondo, Greicelene Jesus da Silva, Pedro Gustavo Câmara da Silva, Elisabeth Shrimpton, Tanaya Sarmah, Da Huo, Michael Jacobson, Abdullah Konak, Nazmiye Balta-Ozkan, and Adelaide Cassia Nardocci
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2165–2173, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2165-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
With climate change, societies increasingly need to adapt to deal with more severe droughts and the impacts they can have on food production. To make better adaptation decisions, drought resilience indicators can be used. To build these indicators, surveys with experts can be done. However, designing surveys is a costly process that can influence how experts respond. In this communication, we aim to deal with the challenges encountered in the development of surveys to help further research.
Vakhitkhan Alikhanovich Ismailov, Sharofiddin Ismatullayevich Yodgorov, Akhror Sabriddinovich Khusomiddinov, Eldor Makhmadiyorovich Yadigarov, Bekzod Uktamovich Aktamov, and Shuhrat Bakhtiyorovich Avazov
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2133–2146, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2133-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
For the basis of seismic risk assessment, maps of seismic intensity increment and an improved map of seismic hazard have been developed, taking into account the engineering-geological conditions of the territory of Uzbekistan and the seismic characteristics of soils. For seismic risk map development, databases were created based on geographic information system platforms, allowing us to systematize and evaluate the regional distribution of information.
Harkunti Pertiwi Rahayu, Khonsa Indana Zulfa, Dewi Nurhasanah, Richard Haigh, Dilanthi Amaratunga, and In In Wahdiny
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2045–2064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2045-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Transboundary flood risk management in the Ciliwung River basin is placed in a broader context of disaster management, environmental science, and governance. This is particularly relevant for areas of research involving the management of shared water resources, the impact of regional development on flood risk, and strategies to reduce economic losses from flooding.
Lichen Yu, Hao Qin, Shining Huang, Wei Wei, Haoyu Jiang, and Lin Mu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2003–2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2003-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper proposes a quantitative storm surge risk assessment method for data-deficient regions. A coupled model is used to simulate five storm surge scenarios. Deep learning is used to extract building footprints. Economic losses are calculated by combining adjusted depth–damage functions with inundation simulation results. Zoning maps illustrate risk levels based on economic losses, aiding in disaster prevention measures to reduce losses in coastal areas.
Harikesan Baskaran, Ioanna Ioannou, Tiziana Rossetto, Jonas Cels, Mathis Joffrain, Nicolas Mortegoutte, Aurelie Fallon Saint-Lo, and Catalina Spataru
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-82, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
There is a global need for insuring green economy assets against natural hazard events. But their complexity and low exposure history, means the data required for vulnerability evaluation by the insurance industry is scarce. A systematic literature review is conducted in this study, to determine the suitability of current, published literature for this purpose. Knowledge gaps are charted, and a representative asset-hazard taxonomy is proposed, to guide future, quantitative research.
Stephen B. Ferencz, Ning Sun, Sean W. D. Turner, Brian A. Smith, and Jennie S. Rice
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1871–1896, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1871-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Population growth, economic development, and the potential for more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change pose significant water security challenges. Better understanding the impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid adaptive planning. The 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas, United States, is used as a case study to assess impacts and responses to severe drought.
Alex Dunant, Tom R. Robinson, Alexander Logan Densmore, Nick J. Rosser, Ragindra Man Rajbhandari, Mark Kincey, Sihan Li, Prem Raj Awasthi, Max Van Wyk de Vries, Ramesh Guragain, Erin Harvey, and Simon Dadson
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-1374, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Our study introduces a new method using hypergraph theory to assess risks from interconnected natural hazards. Traditional models often overlook how these hazards can interact and worsen each other's effects. By applying our method to the 2015 Nepal earthquake, we successfully demonstrated its ability to predict broad damage patterns, despite slightly overestimating impacts. Being able to anticipate the effects of complex, interconnected hazards is critical for disaster preparedness.
Leandro Iannacone, Kenneth Otárola, Roberto Gentile, and Carmine Galasso
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1721–1740, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1721-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper presents a review of the available classifications for hazard interactions in a multi-hazard context, and it incorporates such classifications from a modeling perspective. The outcome is a sequential Monte Carlo approach enabling efficient simulation of multi-hazard event sets (i.e., sequences of events throughout the life cycle). These event sets can then be integrated into frameworks for the quantification of consequences for the purposes of life cycle consequence (LCCon) analysis.
Rodrigo Cienfuegos, Gonzalo Álvarez, Jorge León, Alejandro Urrutia, and Sebastián Castro
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1485–1500, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1485-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study carries out a detailed analysis of possible tsunami evacuation scenarios in the city of Iquique in Chile. Evacuation modeling and tsunami modeling are integrated, allowing for an estimation of the potential number of people that the inundation may reach under different scenarios by emulating the dynamics and behavior of the population and their decision-making regarding the starting time of the evacuation.
Laurine A. de Wolf, Peter J. Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Toon Haer, Jantsje M. Mol, and Jeffrey Czajkowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1303–1318, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1303-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
An understanding of flood risk perceptions may aid in improving flood risk communication. We conducted a survey among 871 coastal residents in Florida who were threatened to be flooded by Hurricane Dorian. Part of the original sample was resurveyed after Dorian failed to make landfall to investigate changes in risk perception. We find a strong influence of previous flood experience and social norms on flood risk perceptions. Furthermore, flood risk perceptions declined after the near-miss event.
Saskia Arndt and Stefan Heiland
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-59, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
This study provides an overview of the current status of climate change adaptation in water management, spatial and landscape planning in the Spree River basin. Only 39 % of 28 plans analysed specify objectives and measures for adaptation to climate change. To fill this planning gap, more frequent updates of plans, a stronger focus on multifunctional measures and the adaptation of best practice examples for systematic integration of climate change impacts and adaptation are needed.
Christian Geiß, Jana Maier, Emily So, Elisabeth Schoepfer, Sven Harig, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, and Yue Zhu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1051–1064, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1051-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We establish a model of future geospatial population distributions to quantify the number of people living in earthquake-prone and tsunami-prone areas of Lima and Callao, Peru, for the year 2035. Areas of high earthquake intensity will experience a population growth of almost 30 %. The population in the tsunami inundation area is estimated to grow by more than 60 %. Uncovering those relations can help urban planners and policymakers to develop effective risk mitigation strategies.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Vakhitkhan Ismailov, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Faga
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is highly exposed to multiple hazards, including earthquakes, floods and landslides, for which risk reduction strategies are currently under development. We provide a regional-scale database of assets at risk, including population and residential buildings, based on existing information and recent data collected for each Central Asian country. The population and number of buildings are also estimated for the year 2080 to support the definition of disaster risk reduction strategies.
Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jamie Towner, Bernardino Nhantumbo, Célio João da Conceição Marcos Matuele, Isaias Raiva, Massimiliano Pasqui, Sara Quaresima, and Rogério Bonifácio
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-538, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The "Ready, Set & Go!" system, developed by the World Food Programme and partners, employs seasonal forecasts to tackle droughts in Mozambique. With the Maputo Declaration, efforts to expand early warning systems are aligning with global initiatives for universal protection by 2027. Through advanced forecasting and anticipatory action, it could cover 76 % of districts against severe droughts, reaching 87 % national coverage for the first months of the rainy season.
Tianyang Yu, Banghua Lu, Hui Jiang, and Zhi Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 803–822, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-803-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
A basic database for seismic risk assessment of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China is established. The parameters of the seismic risk curves of 720 cities are calculated. The seismic fragility curves of various facilities in the water supply system are given based on the logarithmic normal distribution model. The expected seismic loss and the expected loss rate index of 720 urban water supply systems in mainland China in the medium and long term are given.
Connor Darlington, Jonathan Raikes, Daniel Henstra, Jason Thistlethwaite, and Emma K. Raven
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 699–714, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-699-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impacts of climate change on local floods require precise maps that clearly demarcate changes to flood exposure; however, most maps lack important considerations that reduce their utility in policy and decision-making. This article presents a new approach to identifying current and projected flood exposure using a 5 m model. The results highlight advancements in the mapping of flood exposure with implications for flood risk management.
Duanyang Liu, Tian Jing, Mingyue Yan, Ismail Gultepe, Yunxuan Bao, Hongbin Wang, and Fan Zu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-230, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
The highway-blocking events are characterized by diurnal variation. A classification method of severity levels of highway blocking is developed into five levels. The severity levels of highway blocking due to high-impact weather are evaluated. A method for calculating the degree of highway load in China is proposed. A quantitative assessment of the losses of highway blocking due to dense fog is conducted. The highway losses caused by dense fog are concentrated in North, East and Southwest China.
Chiara Arrighi and Alessio Domeneghetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 673–679, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-673-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this communication, we reflect on environmental flood impacts by analysing the reported environmental consequences of the 2023 Emilia-Romagna floods. The most frequently reported damage involves water resources and water-related ecosystems. Indirect effects in time and space, intrinsic recovery capacity, cascade impacts on socio-economic systems, and the lack of established monitoring activities appear to be the most challenging aspects for future research.
Chiara Scaini, Alberto Tamaro, Baurzhan Adilkhan, Satbek Sarzhanov, Zukhritdin Ergashev, Ruslan Umaraliev, Mustafo Safarov, Vladimir Belikov, Japar Karayev, and Ettore Fagà
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to multiple hazards such as floods, landslides and earthquakes, which can affect a wide range of assets at risk. We develop the first regionally consistent database of assets at risk for non-residential buildings, transportation and croplands in Central Asia. The database combines global and regional data sources and country-based information and supports the development of regional-scale disaster risk reduction strategies for the Central Asia region.
Mersedeh Kooshki Forooshani, Marc van den Homberg, Kyriaki Kalimeri, Andreas Kaltenbrunner, Yelena Mejova, Leonardo Milano, Pauline Ndirangu, Daniela Paolotti, Aklilu Teklesadik, and Monica L. Turner
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 309–329, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-309-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We improve an existing impact forecasting model for the Philippines by transforming the target variable (percentage of damaged houses) to a fine grid, using only features which are globally available. We show that our two-stage model conserves the performance of the original and even has the potential to introduce savings in anticipatory action resources. Such model generalizability is important in increasing the applicability of such tools around the world.
Jia Xu, Makoto Takahashi, and Weifu Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 179–197, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Through the development of micro-individual social vulnerability indicators and cluster analysis, this study assessed the level of social vulnerability of 599 residents from 11 communities in the Hongshan District of Wuhan. The findings reveal three levels of social vulnerability: high, medium, and low. Quantitative assessments offer specific comparisons between distinct units, and the results indicate that different types of communities have significant differences in social vulnerability.
Tommaso Piseddu, Mathilda Englund, and Karina Barquet
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 145–161, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-145-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Contributions to social capital, risk awareness, and preparedness constitute the parameters to test applications in disaster risk management. We propose an evaluation of four of these: mobile positioning data, social media crowdsourcing, drones, and satellite imaging. The analysis grants the opportunity to investigate how different methods to evaluate surveys' results may influence final preferences. We find that the different assumptions on which these methods rely deliver diverging results.
Yuting Zhang, Kai Liu, Xiaoyong Ni, Ming Wang, Jianchun Zheng, Mengting Liu, and Dapeng Yu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 63–77, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-63-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This article is aimed at developing a method to quantify the influence of inclement weather on the accessibility of emergency medical services (EMSs) in Beijing, China, and identifying the vulnerable areas that could not get timely EMSs under inclement weather. We found that inclement weather could reduce the accessibility of EMSs by up to 40%. Furthermore, towns with lower baseline EMSs accessibility are more vulnerable when inclement weather occurs.
Soheil Mohammadi, Silvia De Angeli, Giorgio Boni, Francesca Pirlone, and Serena Cattari
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 79–107, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-79-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper critically reviews disaster recovery literature from a multi-risk perspective. Identified key challenges encompass the lack of approaches integrating physical reconstruction and socio-economic recovery, the neglect of multi-risk interactions, the limited exploration of recovery from a pre-disaster planning perspective, and the low consideration of disaster recovery as a non-linear process in which communities need change over time.
Kushagra Pandey, Jens A. de Bruijn, Hans de Moel, Wouter Botzen, and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-17, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
SLR will lead to more frequent flooding, and salt intrusion in coastal areas will be a major concern for farming households that are highly dependent on the soil quality for their livelihoods. In this study, we simulated the risk of SLR and flooding to coastal farmers by assessing salt intrusion risk and flood damage to buildings.
Emilio Berny, Carlos Avelar, Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, and Mario Ordaz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a methodology to estimate the total emergency costs based on modelled damages for earthquakes and floods, together with the demographic and building characteristics of the study area. The methodology has been applied in five countries in central Asia, the first time that these estimates are made available for the study area and are intended to be useful for regional and local stakeholders and decision makers.
Henrique M. D. Goulart, Irene Benito Lazaro, Linda van Garderen, Karin van der Wiel, Dewi Le Bars, Elco Koks, and Bart van den Hurk
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 29–45, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-29-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We explore how Hurricane Sandy (2012) could flood New York City under different scenarios, including climate change and internal variability. We find that sea level rise can quadruple coastal flood volumes, while changes in Sandy's landfall location can double flood volumes. Our results show the need for diverse scenarios that include climate change and internal variability and for integrating climate information into a modelling framework, offering insights for high-impact event assessments.
Francesco Caleca, Chiara Scaini, William Frodella, and Veronica Tofani
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 13–27, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-13-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslide risk analysis is a powerful tool because it allows us to identify where physical and economic losses could occur due to a landslide event. The purpose of our work was to provide the first regional-scale analysis of landslide risk for central Asia, and it represents an advanced step in the field of risk analysis for very large areas. Our findings show, per square kilometer, a total risk of about USD 3.9 billion and a mean risk of USD 0.6 million.
Marta Sapena, Moritz Gamperl, Marlene Kühnl, Carolina Garcia-Londoño, John Singer, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3913–3930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation.
Dong Qiu, Binglin Lv, Yuepeng Cui, and Zexiong Zhan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3789–3803, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3789-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper divides preparedness behavior into minimal and adequate preparedness. In addition to studying the main factors that promote families' disaster preparedness, we also study the moderating effects of response efficacy and self-efficacy on preparedness actions by vulnerable families. Based on the findings of this study, policymakers can target interventions and programs that can be designed to remedy the current lack of disaster preparedness education for vulnerable families.
Jenni Barclay, Richie Robertson, and M. Teresa Armijos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3603–3615, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3603-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Stories create avenues for sharing the meanings and social implications of scientific knowledge. We explore their value when told between scientists during a volcanic eruption. They are important vehicles for understanding how risk is generated during volcanic eruptions and create new knowledge about these interactions. Stories explore how risk is negotiated when scientific information is ambiguous or uncertain, identify cause and effect, and rationalize the emotional intensity of a crisis.
Isabelle Ousset, Guillaume Evin, Damien Raynaud, and Thierry Faug
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3509–3523, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3509-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper deals with an exceptional snow and rain event in a Mediterranean region of France which is usually not prone to heavy snowfall and its consequences on a particular building that collapsed completely. Independent analyses of the meteorological episode are carried out, and the response of the building to different snow and rain loads is confronted to identify the main critical factors that led to the collapse.
Elisabeth Schoepfer, Jörn Lauterjung, Torsten Riedlinger, Harald Spahn, Juan Camilo Gómez Zapata, Christian D. León, Hugo Rosero-Velásquez, Sven Harig, Michael Langbein, Nils Brinckmann, Günter Strunz, Christian Geiß, and Hannes Taubenböck
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-142, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we provide a brief introduction on the paradigm shift from managing disasters to managing risks, followed by single-hazard to multi-hazard risk assessment. We highlight four global strategies that address disaster risk reduction and call for action. Subsequently, we present a conceptual approach for multi-risk assessment which was designed to serve potential users like disaster risk managers, urban planners or operators of critical infrastructures to increase their capabilities.
Jiachang Tu, Jiahong Wen, Liang Emlyn Yang, Andrea Reimuth, Stephen S. Young, Min Zhang, Luyang Wang, and Matthias Garschagen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3247–3260, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3247-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper evaluates the flood risk and the resulting patterns in buildings following low-probability, high-impact flood scenarios by a risk analysis chain in Shanghai. The results provide a benchmark and also a clear future for buildings with respect to flood risks in Shanghai. This study links directly to disaster risk management, e.g., the Shanghai Master Plan. We also discussed different potential adaptation options for flood risk management.
Ignace Pelckmans, Jean-Philippe Belliard, Luis E. Dominguez-Granda, Cornelis Slobbe, Stijn Temmerman, and Olivier Gourgue
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 3169–3183, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-3169-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mangroves are increasingly recognized as a coastal protection against extreme sea levels. Their effectiveness in doing so, however, is still poorly understood, as mangroves are typically located in tropical countries where data on mangrove vegetation and topography properties are often scarce. Through a modelling study, we identified the degree of channelization and the mangrove forest floor topography as the key properties for regulating high water levels in a tropical delta.
Cited articles
Ahmad, N., Crowley, H., and Pinho, R.: Analytical fragility functions for reinforced concrete and masonry buildings and buildings aggregates of Euro-Mediterranean Regions – UPAV methodology, Internal Report, Syner-G Project, 2011.
Berny, E., Avelar, C., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., and Ordaz, M.: Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024.
CAC-DRMI: Risk assessment for Central Asia and Caucasus: desk study review, https://www.unisdr.org/files/11641_CentralAsiaCaucasusDRManagementInit.pdf (last access: 11 November 2023), 2009.
Cardona, O. D., Ordaz, M., Mora, M., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Bernal, G. A., Zuloaga, D., Marulanda, M. C., Yamín, L. E., and González, D.: Global risk assessment: a fully probabilistic seismic and tropical cyclone wind risk assessment, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 10, 461–476, 2014.
Coccia, G., Ceresa, P., Bussi, G., Denaro, S., Bazzurro, P., Martina, M., Fagà, E., Avelar, C., Ordaz, M., Huerta, B., Garay, O., Raimbekova, Z., Abdrakhmatov, K., Mirzokhonova, S., Ismailov, V., and Belikov, V.: Large-scale flood risk assessment in data scarce areas: an application to Central Asia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-157, in review, 2023.
ERN – Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales: R-CAPRA, Program for probabilistic and multi-hazard risk assessment, Evaluación de Riesgos Naturales, Mexico City, Mexico, 2022.
GFDRR: Europe and Central Asia Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earthquakes, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/958801481798204368/pdf/111015-REVISED-WP-ECA-Country-risk-profiles-PUBLIC.pdf (last access: 11 November 2023), 2016.
Jaimes, M. A., Reinoso, E., Ordaz, M., Huerta, B., Silva, R., Mendoza, E., and Rodríguez, J.C.: A new approach to probabilistic earthquake-induced tsunami risk assessment, Ocean Coast Manage., 119, 68–75, 2016.
JICA: The Study on Earthquake Disaster Risk Management for Almaty City in the Republic of Kazakhstan, https://openjicareport.jica.go.jp/pdf/11961752.pdf (last access: 15 August 2023), 2009.
Karantoni, T., Lyrantzaki, F., Tsionis, G., and Fardi, M. N.: Analytical fragility functions for masonry buildings and building aggregates, UPAT Methodology, Syner-G Project 2009/2012, 2011.
Kircher, C. A. and McCann, M. W.: Appendix A: development of seismic fragility curves for sixteen types of structures common to cities of the Mississippi Valley Region. Jack Benjamin and Associates Inc., Mountain View, California, USA, 1983.
Kohrangi, M., Vamvatsikos, D., and Bazzurro, P.: Implications of Intensity Measure Selection for Seismic Loss Assessment of 3-D Buildings, Earthq. Spectra, 32, 2167–2189, 2016.
Kostov, M., Vaseva, E., Kaneva, A., Koleva, N., Verbanov, G., Stefanov, D., Darvarova, E., Salakov, D., Simeonova, S., and Cristoskov, L: Application to Sofia, Report RISK-UE WP13, RISK-UE Project, 2004.
Lagomarsino, S. and Cattari, S.: Fragility Functions of Masonry Buildings, in: SYNER-G: Typology Definition and Fragility Functions for Physical Elements at Seismic Risk, Vol. 27, edited by: Pitilakis, K., Crowley, H., and Kaynia, A., GGEE – Geotechnical, Geological and Earthquake Engineering, 2014.
Luco, N. and Cornell, C. A.: Structure-Specific Scalar Intensity Measures for Near-Surface and Ordinary Earthquake Ground Motions, Earthq. Spectra, 23, 357–392, 2007.
Ordaz, M., Cardona, O. D., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Bernal, G. A., Singh, S. K. and Zuloaga, D.: Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment at global level, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reuct., 10, 419–427, 2014.
Ordaz, M., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Huerta, B., Rodríguez, J. C., and Avelar, C.: Considering the impacts of simultaneous perils, Disast. Prevent. Manage., 28, 823–837, 2019.
Ordaz, M., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., and Giraldo, S.: R-CRISIS: 35 years of continuous developments and improvements for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 19, 2797–2816, 2021.
Ordaz, M., Martinelli, F., Aguilar, A., Arboleda, J., Meletti, C. and D'Amico, V.: R-CRISIS, Program for computing seismic hazard, Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico, http://www.r-crisis.com/ (last access: 18 July 2023), 2023.
Pielke, R. A., Rubiera, J., Landsea, C., Fernández, M. L., and Klein, R.: Hurricane Vulnerability in Latin America and The Caribbean: Normalized Damage and Loss Potentials, Nat. Hazards Rev., 4, 101, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2003)4:3(101), 2003.
Poggi, V., Parolai, S., Silacheva, N., Ischuk, A., Abdrakhmatov, K., Kobuliev, Z., Ismailov, V., Ibragimov, R., Karayev, J., Ceresa, P., Santulin, M., and Bazzurro, P.: Development of a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model for Central Asia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-132, in review, 2023.
Poggi, V., Parolai, S., Silacheva, N., Ischuk, A., Abdrakhmatov, K., Kobuliev, Z., Ismailov, V., Ibragimov, R., Karaev, J., Ceresa, P., and Bazzurro, P.: Harmonizing seismicity information in Central Asian countries: earthquake catalogue and active faults, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2597–2613, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2597-2024, 2024.
RED – Risk Engineering Development: Earthquake vulnerability for the regional consistent risk assessment for earthquakes and floods and selective landslide scenario analysis for strengthening financial resilience and accelerating risk reduction Central Asia, Technical Report Task 5a, 2023.
Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Zuloaga, D., Bernal, G. A., Mora, M. G., and Cardona, O. D.: Fully probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering local site effects for the portfolio of buildings in Medellín, Colombia, Bull. Earthq. Eng., 12, 671–695, 2014.
Scaini, C., Tamaro, A., Adilkhan, B., Sarzhanov, S., Ismailov, V., Umaraliev, R., Safarov, M., Belikov, V., Karayev, J., and Faga, E.: A new regionally consistent exposure database for Central Asia: population and residential buildings, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 929–945, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-929-2024, 2024a.
Scaini, C., Tamaro, A., Adilkhan, B., Sarzhanov, S., Ergashev, Z., Umaraliev, R., Safarov, M., Belikov, V., Karayev, J., and Fagà, E.: A regional-scale approach to assessing non-residential building, transportation and cropland exposure in Central Asia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 355–373, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-355-2024, 2024b.
UNISDR: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, UNISDR, Geneva, Switzerland, https://doi.org/10.18356/919076d9-en, 2015.
World Bank: Measuring Seismic Risk in Kyrgyz Republic. Seismic Risk Reduction Strategy, Scientific Technical Report 240323-00, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/fr/689251517034023 (last access: 15 August 2023), 2017.
World Bank Group: SFRARR Central Asia, https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search?q=sfrarr central&start=0&sort= (last access: 7 November 2024), 2024.
Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets....
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint