Articles | Volume 24, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3851-2024
Research article
 | 
11 Nov 2024
Research article |  | 11 Nov 2024

Development of a regionally consistent and fully probabilistic earthquake risk model for Central Asia

Mario A. Salgado-Gálvez, Mario Ordaz, Benjamín Huerta, Osvaldo Garay, Carlos Avelar, Ettore Fagà, Mohsen Kohrangi, Paola Ceresa, Georgios Triantafyllou, and Ulugbek T. Begaliev

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Cited articles

Ahmad, N., Crowley, H., and Pinho, R.: Analytical fragility functions for reinforced concrete and masonry buildings and buildings aggregates of Euro-Mediterranean Regions – UPAV methodology, Internal Report, Syner-G Project, 2011. 
Berny, E., Avelar, C., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., and Ordaz, M.: Estimating emergency costs for earthquakes and floods in Central Asia based on modelled losses, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 53–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-53-2024, 2024. 
CAC-DRMI: Risk assessment for Central Asia and Caucasus: desk study review, https://www.unisdr.org/files/11641_CentralAsiaCaucasusDRManagementInit.pdf (last access: 11 November 2023), 2009. 
Cardona, O. D., Ordaz, M., Mora, M., Salgado-Gálvez, M. A., Bernal, G. A., Zuloaga, D., Marulanda, M. C., Yamín, L. E., and González, D.: Global risk assessment: a fully probabilistic seismic and tropical cyclone wind risk assessment, Int. J. Disast. Risk Reduct., 10, 461–476, 2014. 
Coccia, G., Ceresa, P., Bussi, G., Denaro, S., Bazzurro, P., Martina, M., Fagà, E., Avelar, C., Ordaz, M., Huerta, B., Garay, O., Raimbekova, Z., Abdrakhmatov, K., Mirzokhonova, S., Ismailov, V., and Belikov, V.: Large-scale flood risk assessment in data scarce areas: an application to Central Asia, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2023-157, in review, 2023. 
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Short summary
Central Asia is prone to earthquake losses, which can heavily impact different types of assets. This paper presents the details of a probabilistic earthquake risk model which made use of a regionally consistent approach to assess feasible earthquake losses in five countries. Results are presented in terms of commonly used risk metrics, which are aimed at facilitating a policy dialogue regarding different disaster risk management strategies, from risk mitigation to disaster risk financing.
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