Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Feb 2024
Research article |
| 05 Feb 2024
| 05 Feb 2024
Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change
Leanne Archer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Jeffrey Neal
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Paul Bates
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Emily Vosper
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
Dereka Carroll
Department of Chemistry, Physics, and Atmospheric Sciences, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA
Jeison Sosa
Fathom, Bristol, UK
Daniel Mitchell
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to...
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