Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-375-2024
Research article
 | 
05 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 05 Feb 2024

Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change

Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell

Related authors

Assessing LISFLOOD-FP with the next-generation digital elevation model FABDEM using household survey and remote sensing data in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
Laurence Hawker, Jeffrey Neal, James Savage, Thomas Kirkpatrick, Rachel Lord, Yanos Zylberberg, Andre Groeger, Truong Dang Thuy, Sean Fox, Felix Agyemang, and Pham Khanh Nam
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 539–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-539-2024, 2024
Short summary
Global scale evaluation of precipitation datasets for hydrological modelling
Solomon Hailu Gebrechorkos, Julian Leyland, Simon J. Dadson, Sagy Cohen, Louise Slater, Michel Wortmann, Philip J. Ashworth, Georgina L. Bennett, Richard Boothroyd, Hannah Cloke, Pauline Delorme, Helen Griffith, Richard Hardy, Laurence Hawker, Stuart McLelland, Jeffrey Neal, Andrew Nicholas, Andrew J. Tatem, Ellie Vahidi, Yinxue Liu, Justin Sheffield, Daniel R. Parsons, and Stephen E. Darby
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-251,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-251, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary
Global application of a regional frequency analysis on extreme sea levels
Thomas P. Collings, Niall D. Quinn, Ivan D. Haigh, Joshua Green, Izzy Probyn, Hamish Wilkinson, Sanne Muis, William V. Sweet, and Paul D. Bates
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2267,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-2267, 2023
Short summary
An improved subgrid channel model with upwind-form artificial diffusion for river hydrodynamics and floodplain inundation simulation
Youtong Rong, Paul Bates, and Jeffrey Neal
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 3291–3311, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3291-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-3291-2023, 2023
Short summary
LISFLOOD-FP 8.1: new GPU-accelerated solvers for faster fluvial/pluvial flood simulations
Mohammad Kazem Sharifian, Georges Kesserwani, Alovya Ahmed Chowdhury, Jeffrey Neal, and Paul Bates
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 2391–2413, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2391-2023,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-2391-2023, 2023
Short summary

Related subject area

Hydrological Hazards
Hydrometeorological controls of and social response to the 22 October 2019 catastrophic flash flood in Catalonia, north-eastern Spain
Arnau Amengual, Romu Romero, María Carmen Llasat, Alejandro Hermoso, and Montserrat Llasat-Botija
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2215–2242, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2215-2024, 2024
Short summary
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany
Paul Voit and Maik Heistermann
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2147–2164, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024, 2024
Short summary
Hyper-resolution flood hazard mapping at the national scale
Günter Blöschl, Andreas Buttinger-Kreuzhuber, Daniel Cornel, Julia Eisl, Michael Hofer, Markus Hollaus, Zsolt Horváth, Jürgen Komma, Artem Konev, Juraj Parajka, Norbert Pfeifer, Andreas Reithofer, José Salinas, Peter Valent, Roman Výleta, Jürgen Waser, Michael H. Wimmer, and Heinz Stiefelmeyer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2071–2091, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2071-2024, 2024
Short summary
Compound droughts under climate change in Switzerland
Christoph Nathanael von Matt, Regula Muelchi, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Olivia Martius
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1975–2001, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1975-2024, 2024
Short summary
Brief communication: SWM – stochastic weather model for precipitation-related hazard assessments using ERA5-Land data
Melody Gwyneth Whitehead and Mark Stephen Bebbington
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1929–1935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1929-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Aldridge, T., Gunawan, O., Moore, R. J., Cole, S. J., Boyce, G., and Cowling, R.: Developing an impact library for forecasting surface water flood risk, J. Flood Risk Manage., 13, e12641, https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12641, 2020. 
Allen, A., Zilbert Soto, L., Wesely, J., Belkow, T., Ferro, V., Lambert, R., Langdown, I., and Samanamú, A.: From state agencies to ordinary citizens: reframing risk-mitigation investments and their impact to disrupt urban risk traps in Lima, Peru, Environ. Urban., 29, 477–502, https://doi.org/10.1177/0956247817706061, 2017. 
Archer, L., Neal, J., Bates, P., Vosper, E., Carroll, D., Sosa, J., and Mitchell, D.: Puerto Rico Probability of Flood Inundation Maps, University of Bristol Data Repository [data set], https://doi.org/10.5523/bris.2qtinf5lw52u52snyl5ruwekef, 2023. 
Arnell, N. W. and Gosling, S. N.: The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale, Climatic Change, 134, 387–401, https://doi.org/10.1007/S10584-014-1084-5, 2016. 
Audi, C., Segarra, L., Irwin, C., Craig, P., Skelton, C., and Bestul, N.: Ascertainment of the Estimated Excess Mortality from Hurricane María in Puerto Rico, Washington, DC, https://publichealth.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs4586/files/2023-06/acertainment-of-the-estimated-excess-mortality-from-hurricane (last access: 1 February 2024), 2018. 
Download
Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint