Articles | Volume 24, issue 2
Research article
05 Feb 2024
Research article |  | 05 Feb 2024

Current and future rainfall-driven flood risk from hurricanes in Puerto Rico under 1.5 and 2 °C climate change

Leanne Archer, Jeffrey Neal, Paul Bates, Emily Vosper, Dereka Carroll, Jeison Sosa, and Daniel Mitchell

Data sets

Puerto Rico Probability of Flood Inundation Maps Leanne Archer et al.

NCEP/EMC 4KM 95~Gridded Data (GRIB) Stage IV Data, version 1.0 J. Du

IMERG: Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM NASA

Model code and software

LISFLOOD-FP 8.0 hydrodynamic model (8.0) LISFLOOD-FP Developers

Short summary
We model hurricane-rainfall-driven flooding to assess how the number of people exposed to flooding changes in Puerto Rico under the 1.5 and 2 °C Paris Agreement goals. Our analysis suggests 8 %–10 % of the population is currently exposed to flooding on average every 5 years, increasing by 2 %–15 % and 1 %–20 % at 1.5 and 2 °C. This has implications for adaptation to more extreme flooding in Puerto Rico and demonstrates that 1.5 °C climate change carries a significant increase in risk.
Final-revised paper