Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations

Holmgren, Erik; Kjellström, Erik

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024

Articles | Volume 24, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 24, issue 8

Research article

|

29 Aug 2024

Research article |

| 29 Aug 2024

Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations

Erik Holmgren and Erik Kjellström

Data sets

Station data, GridClim and PTHBV datasets Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute https://www.smhi.se

CORDEX data Earth System Grid Federation https://esgf.llnl.gov/nodes.html

ERA5 data Copernicus Climate Change Service https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu

Model code and software

Holmgren825/holmgren_kjellstrom_exploring_attribution E. Holmgren https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13358507

Short summary

Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.

Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.