Articles | Volume 24, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2875-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Exploring the sensitivity of extreme event attribution of two recent extreme weather events in Sweden using long-running meteorological observations
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Division of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Department of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
Erik Kjellström
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden
Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Related authors
Erik Holmgren and Hans W. Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3992, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present a new study on atmospheric rivers (ARs) over Scandinavia and how they influence the regional precipitation. Although ARs are fairly well studied in other parts of the world, their influence on the Scandinavian climate remains less explored. Our results show that although ARs occur relatively infrequently over Scandinavia, they exert a large influence on the regional precipitation, contributing up to 40 % of the annual precipitation.
Erik Holmgren and Hans W. Chen
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3992, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3992, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Weather and Climate Dynamics (WCD).
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we present a new study on atmospheric rivers (ARs) over Scandinavia and how they influence the regional precipitation. Although ARs are fairly well studied in other parts of the world, their influence on the Scandinavian climate remains less explored. Our results show that although ARs occur relatively infrequently over Scandinavia, they exert a large influence on the regional precipitation, contributing up to 40 % of the annual precipitation.
Abhay Devasthale, Sandra Andersson, Erik Engström, Frank Kaspar, Jörg Trentmann, Anke Duguay-Tetzlaff, Jan Fokke Meirink, Erik Kjellström, Tomas Landelius, Manu Anna Thomas, and Karl-Göran Karlsson
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1169-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
By compositing trends in multiple climate variables, this study presents emerging regimes that are relevant for solar energy applications. It is shown that the favourable conditions for exploiting solar energy are emerging during spring and early summer. The study also underscores the increasingly important role of clouds in regulating surface solar radiation as the aerosol concentrations are decreasing over Europe and the societal value of satellite-based climate monitoring.
Gustav Strandberg, August Thomasson, Lars Bärring, Erik Kjellström, Michael Sahlin, Renate Wilcke, and Grigory Nikulin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2002, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2002, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The need for information about climate change is ever increasing. Therefore, it is important to have knowledge about climate change, along with an understanding of the uncertainties of climate model ensembles. Here, climate change in Sweden and neighbouring countries and its relation to global warming is described. Global warming results in higher temperature, more warm days and fewer cold days. The local and global warming suggest that climate change in Sweden may currently be at its fastest.
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.
Fredrik Lagergren, Robert G. Björk, Camilla Andersson, Danijel Belušić, Mats P. Björkman, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, David Lindstedt, Tinja Olenius, Håkan Pleijel, Gunhild Rosqvist, and Paul A. Miller
Biogeosciences, 21, 1093–1116, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-1093-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The Fennoscandian boreal and mountain regions harbour a wide range of ecosystems sensitive to climate change. A new, highly resolved high-emission climate scenario enabled modelling of the vegetation development in this region at high resolution for the 21st century. The results show dramatic south to north and low- to high-altitude shifts of vegetation zones, especially for the open tundra environments, which will have large implications for nature conservation, reindeer husbandry and forestry.
Gustav Strandberg, Jie Chen, Ralph Fyfe, Erik Kjellström, Johan Lindström, Anneli Poska, Qiong Zhang, and Marie-José Gaillard
Clim. Past, 19, 1507–1530, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1507-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the climate around 2500 years ago is studied using reconstructions and models. The results suggest that LULCC impacted the climate in parts of Europe. Reconstructed LULCC shows up to 1.5 °C higher temperature in parts of Europe in some seasons. This relatively strong response implies that anthropogenic LULCC that had occurred by the late prehistoric period may have already affected the European climate by 2500 years ago.
John Erik Engström, Lennart Wern, Sverker Hellström, Erik Kjellström, Chunlüe Zhou, Deliang Chen, and Cesar Azorin-Molina
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 2259–2277, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2259-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2259-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Newly digitized wind speed observations provide data from the time period from around 1920 to the present, enveloping one full century of wind measurements. The results of this work enable the investigation of the historical variability and trends in surface wind speed in Sweden for
the last century.
Eva Sebok, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ernesto Pastén-Zapata, Peter Berg, Guillaume Thirel, Anthony Lemoine, Andrea Lira-Loarca, Christiana Photiadou, Rafael Pimentel, Paul Royer-Gaspard, Erik Kjellström, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jean Philippe Vidal, Philippe Lucas-Picher, Markus G. Donat, Giovanni Besio, María José Polo, Simon Stisen, Yvan Caballero, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Lars Troldborg, and Jens Christian Refsgaard
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5605–5625, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-5605-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Hydrological models projecting the impact of changing climate carry a lot of uncertainty. Thus, these models usually have a multitude of simulations using different future climate data. This study used the subjective opinion of experts to assess which climate and hydrological models are the most likely to correctly predict climate impacts, thereby easing the computational burden. The experts could select more likely hydrological models, while the climate models were deemed equally probable.
Changgui Lin, Erik Kjellström, Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, and Deliang Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1197–1214, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1197-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
This study endorses RCMs' added value on the driving GCMs in representing observed heat wave magnitudes. The future increase of heat wave magnitudes projected by GCMs is attenuated when downscaled by RCMs. Within the downscaling, uncertainties can be attributed almost equally to choice of RCMs and to the driving data associated with different GCMs. Uncertainties of GCMs in simulating heat wave magnitudes are transformed by RCMs in a complex manner rather than simply inherited.
H. E. Markus Meier, Madline Kniebusch, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Eduardo Zorita, Ragnar Elmgren, Kai Myrberg, Markus P. Ahola, Alena Bartosova, Erik Bonsdorff, Florian Börgel, Rene Capell, Ida Carlén, Thomas Carlund, Jacob Carstensen, Ole B. Christensen, Volker Dierschke, Claudia Frauen, Morten Frederiksen, Elie Gaget, Anders Galatius, Jari J. Haapala, Antti Halkka, Gustaf Hugelius, Birgit Hünicke, Jaak Jaagus, Mart Jüssi, Jukka Käyhkö, Nina Kirchner, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kulinski, Andreas Lehmann, Göran Lindström, Wilhelm May, Paul A. Miller, Volker Mohrholz, Bärbel Müller-Karulis, Diego Pavón-Jordán, Markus Quante, Marcus Reckermann, Anna Rutgersson, Oleg P. Savchuk, Martin Stendel, Laura Tuomi, Markku Viitasalo, Ralf Weisse, and Wenyan Zhang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 457–593, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-457-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Based on the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports of this thematic issue in Earth System Dynamics and recent peer-reviewed literature, current knowledge about the effects of global warming on past and future changes in the climate of the Baltic Sea region is summarised and assessed. The study is an update of the Second Assessment of Climate Change (BACC II) published in 2015 and focuses on the atmosphere, land, cryosphere, ocean, sediments, and the terrestrial and marine biosphere.
Erika Médus, Emma D. Thomassen, Danijel Belušić, Petter Lind, Peter Berg, Jens H. Christensen, Ole B. Christensen, Andreas Dobler, Erik Kjellström, Jonas Olsson, and Wei Yang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 693–711, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-693-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate the skill of a regional climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, to capture the present-day characteristics of heavy precipitation in the Nordic region and investigate the added value provided by a convection-permitting model version. The higher model resolution improves the representation of hourly heavy- and extreme-precipitation events and their diurnal cycle. The results indicate the benefits of convection-permitting models for constructing climate change projections over the region.
Anna Rutgersson, Erik Kjellström, Jari Haapala, Martin Stendel, Irina Danilovich, Martin Drews, Kirsti Jylhä, Pentti Kujala, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Kirsten Halsnæs, Ilari Lehtonen, Anna Luomaranta, Erik Nilsson, Taru Olsson, Jani Särkkä, Laura Tuomi, and Norbert Wasmund
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 251–301, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-251-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people, society, or the environment; major events in the study area include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. In the future, an increase in sea level, extreme precipitation, heat waves, and phytoplankton blooms is expected, and a decrease in cold spells and severe ice winters is anticipated.
H. E. Markus Meier, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, Cyril Dutheil, Florian Börgel, Kseniia Safonova, Ole B. Christensen, and Erik Kjellström
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 159–199, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-159-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In addition to environmental pressures such as eutrophication, overfishing and contaminants, climate change is believed to have an important impact on the marine environment in the future, and marine management should consider the related risks. Hence, we have compared and assessed available scenario simulations for the Baltic Sea and found considerable uncertainties of the projections caused by the underlying assumptions and model biases, in particular for the water and biogeochemical cycles.
Ole Bøssing Christensen, Erik Kjellström, Christian Dieterich, Matthias Gröger, and Hans Eberhard Markus Meier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 133–157, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-133-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Baltic Sea Region is very sensitive to climate change, whose impacts could easily exacerbate biodiversity stress from society and eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. Therefore, there has been a focus on estimations of future climate change and its impacts in recent research. Models show a strong warming, in particular in the north in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase in the whole region apart from the south during summer. New results improve estimates of future climate change.
Marcus Reckermann, Anders Omstedt, Tarmo Soomere, Juris Aigars, Naveed Akhtar, Magdalena Bełdowska, Jacek Bełdowski, Tom Cronin, Michał Czub, Margit Eero, Kari Petri Hyytiäinen, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen, Anders Kiessling, Erik Kjellström, Karol Kuliński, Xiaoli Guo Larsén, Michelle McCrackin, H. E. Markus Meier, Sonja Oberbeckmann, Kevin Parnell, Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, Anneli Poska, Jarkko Saarinen, Beata Szymczycha, Emma Undeman, Anders Wörman, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1–80, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
As part of the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR), we present an inventory and discussion of different human-induced factors and processes affecting the environment of the Baltic Sea region and their interrelations. Some are naturally occurring and modified by human activities, others are completely human-induced, and they are all interrelated to different degrees. The findings from this study can largely be transferred to other comparable marginal and coastal seas in the world.
Renate Anna Irma Wilcke, Erik Kjellström, Changgui Lin, Daniela Matei, Anders Moberg, and Evangelos Tyrlis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Two long-lasting high-pressure systems in summer 2018 led to heat waves over Scandinavia and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on both agriculture and human life. Using five climate model ensembles, the unique 263-year Stockholm temperature time series and a composite 150-year time series for the whole of Sweden, we found that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer, such as the one observed in 2018, occurring in Sweden.
Cited articles
Andersson, S., Bärring, L., Landelius, T., Samuelsson, P., and Schimanke, S.: SMHI Gridded Climatology, SMHI, URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6192, 2021. a
Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt: Das Bayerische Klimaprojektionsensemble Audit Und Ensemblebildung, Tech. rep., Bayerisches Landesamt für Umwelt, 2020. a
Berg, P., Bosshard, T., Yang, W., and Zimmermann, K.: MIdASv0.2.1 – MultI-scale bias AdjuStment, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 6165–6180, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6165-2022, 2022. a
Coppola, E., Nogherotto, R., Ciarlo', J. M., Giorgi, F., van Meijgaard, E., Kadygrov, N., Iles, C., Corre, L., Sandstad, M., Somot, S., Nabat, P., Vautard, R., Levavasseur, G., Schwingshackl, C., Sillmann, J., Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Aalbers, E., Lenderink, G., Christensen, O. B., Boberg, F., Sørland, S. L., Demory, M.-E., Bülow, K., Teichmann, C., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 126, e2019JD032356, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD032356, 2021. a
Copernicus Climate Change Service: ERA5 data, CDS [data set], https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu, last access: August 2024. a
Cornes, R. C., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.: An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Data Sets, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 123, 9391–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018. a
Dienst, M., Lindén, J., Engström, E., and Esper, J.: Removing the Relocation Bias from the 155-Year Haparanda Temperature Record in Northern Europe, Int. J. Climatol., 37, 4015–4026, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4981, 2017. a
Doblas-Reyes, F., Sörensson, A., Almazroui, M., Dosio, A., Gutowski, W., Haarsma, R., Hamdi, R., Hewitson, B., Kwon, W.-T., Lamptey, B., Maraun, D., Stephenson, T., Takayabu, I., Terray, L., Turner, A., and Zuo, Z.: Linking Global to Regional Climate Change, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., 1363–1512, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.012, 2021. a
Dole, R., Hoerling, M., Perlwitz, J., Eischeid, J., Pegion, P., Zhang, T., Quan, X.-W., Xu, T., and Murray, D.: Was There a Basis for Anticipating the 2010 Russian Heat Wave?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046582, 2011. a
Earth System Grid Federation: CORDEX data, ESGF [data set], https://esgf.llnl.gov/nodes.html, last access: August 2024. a
European Climate Assessment & Dataset project: E-OBS data, ECAD [data set], https://www.ecad.eu/, last access: August 2024. a
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016. a
Eyring, V., Gillett, N., Achuta Rao, K., Barimalala, R., Barreiro Parrillo, M., Bellouin, N., Cassou, C., Durack, P., Kosaka, Y., McGregor, S., Min, S., Morgenstern, O., and Sun, Y.: Human Influence on the Climate System, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., 423–552, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.005, 2021. a
Gulev, S., Thorne, P., Ahn, J., Dentener, F., Domingues, C., Gerland, S., Gong, D., Kaufman, D., Nnamchi, H., Quaas, J., Rivera, J., Sathyendranath, S., Smith, S., Trewin, B., von Schuckmann, K., and Vose, R.: Changing State of the Climate System, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., 287–422, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.004, 2021. a
Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M., and Lo, K.: Global Surface Temperature Change, Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010RG000345, 2010. a
Herring, S. C., Christidis, N., Hoell, A., and Stott, P. A.: Explaining Extreme Events of 2020 from a Climate Perspective, B. Am. Meterol. Soc., 103, S1–S129, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2020.1, 2022. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 Global Reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Hoerling, M., Kumar, A., Dole, R., Nielsen-Gammon, J. W., Eischeid, J., Perlwitz, J., Quan, X.-W., Zhang, T., Pegion, P., and Chen, M.: Anatomy of an Extreme Event, J. Climate, 26, 2811–2832, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00270.1, 2013. a
Holland, G. and Bruyère, C. L.: Recent Intense Hurricane Response to Global Climate Change, Clim. Dynam., 42, 617–627, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0, 2014. a
Holmgren, E.: Holmgren825/holmgren_kjellstrom_exploring_attribution: v1.0 (stable), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13358507, 2024. a
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: New High-Resolution Climate Change Projections for European Impact Research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014. a
Joelsson, L. M. T., Engström, E., and Kjellström, E.: Homogenization of Swedish Mean Monthly Temperature Series 1860–2021, Int. J. Climatol., 43, 1079–1093, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7881, 2022. a, b, c
Johansson, B.: Areal Precipitation and Temperature in the Swedish Mountains: An Evaluation from a Hydrological Perspective, Hydrol. Res., 31, 207–228, https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2000.0013, 2000. a
Johansson, B. and Chen, D.: The Influence of Wind and Topography on Precipitation Distribution in Sweden: Statistical Analysis and Modelling, Int. J. Climatol., 23, 1523–1535, 2003. a
Johansson, B. and Chen, D.: Estimation of Areal Precipitation for Runoff Modelling Using Wind Data: A Case Study in Sweden, Clim. Res., 29, 53–61, 2005. a
Jones, C., Giorgi, F., and Asrar, G.: The Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment: CORDEX, An International Downscaling Link to CMIP5, CLIVAR Exchanges, 16, 34–40, 2011. a
Kjellström, E., Andersson, L., Arneborg, L., Berg, P., Capell, R., Fredriksson, S., Hieronymus, M., Jönsson, A., Lindström, L., and Strandberg, G.: Klimatinformation som stöd för samhällets klimatanpassningsarbete, Tech. Rep. 64, URN: urn:nbn:se:smhi:diva-6228, SMHI, 2022. a
Lavers, D. A., Simmons, A., Vamborg, F., and Rodwell, M. J.: An Evaluation of ERA5 Precipitation for Climate Monitoring, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 148, 3152–3165, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4351, 2022. a
Leach, N., Li, S., Sparrow, S., Van Oldenborgh, G. J., Lott, F. C., Weisheimer, A., and Allen, M. R.: Anthropogenic Influence on the 2018 Summer Warm Spell in Europe: The Impact of Different Spatio-Temporal Scales, B. Am. Meterol. Soc., 101, S41–S46, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0201.1, 2020. a
Olsson, L., Thorén, H., Harnesk, D., and Persson, J.: Ethics of Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution in Climate Change Science: A Critique, Earth's Future, 10, e2021EF002258, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002258, 2022. a
Otto, F. E. L., Massey, N., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Jones, R. G., and Allen, M. R.: Reconciling Two Approaches to Attribution of the 2010 Russian Heat Wave, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L04702, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050422, 2012. a
Parker, H. R., Cornforth, R. J., Boyd, E., James, R., Otto, F. E. L., and Allen, M. R.: Implications of Event Attribution for Loss and Damage Policy, Weather, 70, 268–273, https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.2542, 2015. a
Philip, S., Kew, S., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Otto, F., Vautard, R., van der Wiel, K., King, A., Lott, F., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., and van Aalst, M.: A Protocol for Probabilistic Extreme Event Attribution Analyses, Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 6, 177–203, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-6-177-2020, 2020. a, b, c, d, e, f
Rahmstorf, S. and Coumou, D.: Increase of Extreme Events in a Warming World, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 108, 17905–17909, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1101766108, 2011. a
Rizwan, A. M., Dennis, L. Y. C., and Liu, C.: A Review on the Generation, Determination and Mitigation of Urban Heat Island, J. Environ. Sci., 20, 120–128, https://doi.org/10.1016/S1001-0742(08)60019-4, 2008. a
Seneviratne, S., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S., Wehner, M., and Zhou, B.: Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, in: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J., Maycock, T., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B., 1513–1766, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2021. a
Stott, P. A., Christidis, N., Otto, F. E. L., Sun, Y., Vanderlinden, J.-P., van Oldenborgh, G. J., Vautard, R., von Storch, H., Walton, P., Yiou, P., and Zwiers, F. W.: Attribution of Extreme Weather and Climate-Related Events, WIREs Clim. Change, 7, 23–41, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.380, 2016. a, b
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute: Station data, GridClim and PTHBV datasets, SMHI [data set], https://www.smhi.se, last access: August 2024. a
Trenberth, K. E.: Changes in Precipitation with Climate Change, Climate Research, 47, 123–138, https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00953, 2011. a
Tuomenvirta, H.: Homogeneity Adjustments of Temperature and Precipitation Series–Finnish and Nordic Data, Int. J. Climatol., 21, 495–506, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.616, 2001. a
van Oldenborgh, G. J., van der Wiel, K., Kew, S., Philip, S., Otto, F., Vautard, R., King, A., Lott, F., Arrighi, J., Singh, R., and van Aalst, M.: Pathways and Pitfalls in Extreme Event Attribution, Clim. Change, 166, 13, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03071-7, 2021. a
Virtanen, P., Gommers, R., Oliphant, T. E., Haberland, M., Reddy, T., Cournapeau, D., Burovski, E., Peterson, P., Weckesser, W., Bright, J., van der Walt, S. J., Brett, M., Wilson, J., Millman, K. J., Mayorov, N., Nelson, A. R. J., Jones, E., Kern, R., Larson, E., Carey, C. J., Polat, İ., Feng, Y., Moore, E. W., VanderPlas, J., Laxalde, D., Perktold, J., Cimrman, R., Henriksen, I., Quintero, E. A., Harris, C. R., Archibald, A. M., Ribeiro, A. H., Pedregosa, F., and van Mulbregt, P.: SciPy 1.0: Fundamental Algorithms for Scientific Computing in Python, Nat. Methods, 17, 261–272, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2, 2020. a
Wilcke, R. A. I., Kjellström, E., Lin, C., Matei, D., Moberg, A., and Tyrlis, E.: The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden – set in a historical context, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1107–1121, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1107-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Yiou, P., Cattiaux, J., Faranda, D., Kadygrov, N., Jézéquel, A., Naveau, P., Ribes, A., Robin, Y., Thao, S., and van Oldenborgh, G. J.: Analyses of the Northern European Summer Heatwave of 2018, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 101, S35–S40, 2020. a
Zimmermann, K., Bärring, L., Löw, J., and Nilsson, C.: Climix – a flexible suite for the calculation of climate indices, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 April 2023, EGU23-15272, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-15272, 2023. a
Short summary
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have explored two ways these relationships can be investigated: one using a more common method and one relying solely on long-running records of meteorological observations.
Our results show that while both methods lead to similar conclusions for two recent weather events in Sweden, the commonly used method risks underestimating the strength of the connection between the event and changes to the climate.
Associating extreme weather events with changes in the climate remains difficult. We have...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint