Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
30 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 30 Aug 2023
| 30 Aug 2023
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Marie Hundhausen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Natalie Laube
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Related authors
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Clare M. Flynn, Julia Moemken, Joaquim G. Pinto, Michael K. Schutte, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 17, 4431–4453, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-4431-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We created a new, publicly available, database of the top 50 most extreme European winter windstorms from each of four different meteorological input data sets covering the years 1995–2015. We found variability in all aspects of our database, from which storms were included in the top 50 storms for each input to the storms' spatial variability. We urge users of our database to consider the storms as identified from two or more input sources within our database where possible.
Ines Dillerup, Alexander Lemburg, Sebastian Buschow, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3379, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Earth System Dynamics (ESD).
Short summary
Short summary
We analyze the duration of large-scale weather patterns and their link to near-surface temperatures during heatwaves in Central Europe for 1950–2023. Compared to non-heatwave days, a stronger link between them is found on heatwave days from May to September. We relate our results to typical long-lasting weather patterns known as weather regimes. In July and August, weather patterns last longer as west winds are often blocked by Scandinavian and European blocking regimes, inducing hot extremes.
Tiago M. Ferreira, Ricardo M. Trigo, Tomás H. Gaspar, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Alexandre M. Ramos
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 609–623, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-609-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We investigate the synoptic evolution associated with the occurrence of an atmospheric river that led to a 24 h record-breaking extreme precipitation event (120.3 mm) in Lisbon, Portugal, on 13 December 2022. The synoptic background allowed the formation, on 10 December, of an atmospheric river associated with a deep extratropical cyclone and with a high moisture content and an inflow of moisture, due to the warm conveyor belt, throughout its life cycle. The system made landfall on 12 December.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Tatiana Klimiuk, Patrick Ludwig, Antonio Sanchez-Benitez, Helge F. Goessling, Peter Braesicke, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 16, 239–255, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our study examines potential changes in heatwaves in central Europe due to global warming, using the 2019 summer heatwave as an example. By producing high-resolution storylines, we provide insights into how future heatwaves might spread, how they might persist for longer, and where stronger or weaker temperature increases may occur. This research helps us understand regional thermodynamic responses and highlights the importance of local strategies to protect communities from future heat events.
Florian Knutzen, Paul Averbeck, Caterina Barrasso, Laurens M. Bouwer, Barry Gardiner, José M. Grünzweig, Sabine Hänel, Karsten Haustein, Marius Rohde Johannessen, Stefan Kollet, Mortimer M. Müller, Joni-Pekka Pietikäinen, Karolina Pietras-Couffignal, Joaquim G. Pinto, Diana Rechid, Efi Rousi, Ana Russo, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Sarah Veit, Julian Wendler, Elena Xoplaki, and Daniel Gliksman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 77–117, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Our research, involving 22 European scientists, investigated drought and heat impacts on forests in 2018–2022. Findings reveal that climate extremes are intensifying, with central Europe being most severely impacted. The southern region showed resilience due to historical drought exposure, while northern and Alpine areas experienced emerging or minimal impacts. The study highlights the need for region-specific strategies, improved data collection, and sustainable practices to safeguard forests.
Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3445–3460, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
European windstorms regularly cause damage to natural and human-made environments, leading to high socio-economic losses. For the first time, we compare estimates of these losses using a meteorological loss index (LI) and the insurance loss (catastrophe) model of Aon Impact Forecasting. We find that LI underestimates high-impact windstorms compared to the insurance model. Nonetheless, due to its simplicity, LI is an effective index, suitable for estimating impacts and ranking storm events.
Selina M. Kiefer, Patrick Ludwig, Sebastian Lerch, Peter Knippertz, and Joaquim G. Pinto
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2955, 2024
Preprint withdrawn
Short summary
Short summary
Weather forecasts 14 days in advance generally have a low skill but not always. We identify reasons thereof depending on the atmospheric flow, shown by Weather Regimes (WRs). If the WRs during the forecasts follow climatological patterns, forecast skill is increased. The forecast of a cold-wave day is better when the European Blocking WR (high pressure around the British Isles) is present a few days before a cold-wave day. These results can be used to assess the reliability of predictions.
Andrea L. Campoverde, Uwe Ehret, Patrick Ludwig, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-134, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
We looked at how well the model WRF-Hydro performed during the 2018 drought event in the River Rhine basin, even though it is typically used for floods. We used the meteorological ERA5 reanalysis dataset to simulate River Rhine’s streamflow and adjusted the model using parameters and actual discharge measurements. We focused on Lake Constance, a key part of the basin, but found issues with the model’s lake outflow simulation. By removing the lake module, we obtained more accurate results.
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Landslides are complex phenomena causing important impacts in vulnerable areas, and they are often triggered by rainfall. Here, we develop a new approach that uses information on the temporal clustering of rainfall, i.e. multiple events close in time, to detect landslide events and compare it with the use of classical empirical rainfall thresholds, considering as a case study the region of Lisbon, Portugal. The results could help to improve the prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides.
Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Rodrigo Caballero
Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 821–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The article studies extreme winds near the surface over the North Atlantic Ocean. These winds are caused by storms that pass through this region. The strongest storms that have occurred in the winters from 1950–2020 are studied in detail and compared to weaker but still strong storms. The analysis shows that the storms associated with the strongest winds are preceded by another older storm that travelled through the same region and made the conditions suitable for development of extreme winds.
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-811-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The general impact of afforestation on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015 is investigated. For this purpose, a regional climate model simulation is performed, in which afforestation during this period is considered, and results are compared to a simulation in which this is not the case. Results show that afforestation had discernible impacts on the climate change signal in Europe, which may have mitigated the local warming trend, especially in summer in Europe.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 981–999, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-981-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. In Part 1 of this work, we introduced RAMEFI (RAndom-forest-based MEsoscale wind Feature Identification), an objective, flexible identification tool for these wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. Here, we use RAMEFI to compile a climatology of the features over 19 extended winter seasons over western and central Europe, focusing on relative occurrence, affected areas and further characteristics.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Hendrik Feldmann, Etor Lucio-Eceiza, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 543–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-543-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate convection-permitting modelling (CPM) simulations for the greater Alpine area to assess its added value compared to a 25 km resolution. A new method for severe precipitation detection is used, and the associated synoptic weather types are considered. Our results document the added value of CPM for precipitation representation with higher intensities, better rank correlation, better hit rates, and an improved amount and structure, but with an overestimation of the rates.
Marcus Breil, Annabell Weber, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 20, 2237–2250, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2237-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
A promising strategy for mitigating burdens of heat extremes in Europe is to replace dark coniferous forests with brighter deciduous forests. The consequence of this would be reduced absorption of solar radiation, which should reduce the intensities of heat periods. In this study, we show that deciduous forests have a certain cooling effect on heat period intensities in Europe. However, the magnitude of the temperature reduction is quite small.
Daniel Gliksman, Paul Averbeck, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Valeri Goldberg, Jens Grieger, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Alexia Karwat, Florian Knutzen, Hilke S. Lentink, Rike Lorenz, Deborah Niermann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Ronald Queck, Astrid Ziemann, and Christian L. E. Franzke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2171–2201, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2171-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Wind and storms are a major natural hazard and can cause severe economic damage and cost human lives. Hence, it is important to gauge the potential impact of using indices, which potentially enable us to estimate likely impacts of storms or other wind events. Here, we review basic aspects of wind and storm generation and provide an extensive overview of wind impacts and available indices. This is also important to better prepare for future climate change and corresponding changes to winds.
Efi Rousi, Andreas H. Fink, Lauren S. Andersen, Florian N. Becker, Goratz Beobide-Arsuaga, Marcus Breil, Giacomo Cozzi, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Deborah Niermann, Dragan Petrovic, Andy Richling, Johannes Riebold, Stella Steidl, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Dim Coumou, André Düsterhus, Florian Ellsäßer, Georgios Fragkoulidis, Daniel Gliksman, Dörthe Handorf, Karsten Haustein, Kai Kornhuber, Harald Kunstmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kirsten Warrach-Sagi, and Elena Xoplaki
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favorable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.
Patrick Ludwig, Florian Ehmele, Mário J. Franca, Susanna Mohr, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Uwe Ehret, Hendrik Feldmann, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Michael Kunz, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1287–1311, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighboring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2 K global warming, an 18 % increase in rainfall led to a 39 % increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.
Marcus Breil, Felix Krawczyk, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 243–253, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-243-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We provide evidence that biogeophysical effects of afforestation can counteract the favorable biogeochemical climate effect of reduced CO2 concentrations. By changing the land surface characteristics, afforestation reduces vegetation surface temperatures, resulting in a reduced outgoing longwave radiation in summer, although CO2 concentrations are reduced. Since forests additionally absorb a lot of solar radiation due to their dark surfaces, afforestation has a total warming effect.
Susanna Mohr, Uwe Ehret, Michael Kunz, Patrick Ludwig, Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, James E. Daniell, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Mário J. Franca, Christian Gattke, Marie Hundhausen, Peter Knippertz, Katharina Küpfer, Bernhard Mühr, Joaquim G. Pinto, Julian Quinting, Andreas M. Schäfer, Marc Scheibel, Frank Seidel, and Christina Wisotzky
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 525–551, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The flood event in July 2021 was one of the most severe disasters in Europe in the last half century. The objective of this two-part study is a multi-disciplinary assessment that examines the complex process interactions in different compartments, from meteorology to hydrological conditions to hydro-morphological processes to impacts on assets and environment. In addition, we address the question of what measures are possible to generate added value to early response management.
Alberto Caldas-Alvarez, Markus Augenstein, Georgy Ayzel, Klemens Barfus, Ribu Cherian, Lisa Dillenardt, Felix Fauer, Hendrik Feldmann, Maik Heistermann, Alexia Karwat, Frank Kaspar, Heidi Kreibich, Etor Emanuel Lucio-Eceiza, Edmund P. Meredith, Susanna Mohr, Deborah Niermann, Stephan Pfahl, Florian Ruff, Henning W. Rust, Lukas Schoppa, Thomas Schwitalla, Stella Steidl, Annegret H. Thieken, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Volker Wulfmeyer, and Johannes Quaas
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3701–3724, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
In a warming climate, extreme precipitation events are becoming more frequent. To advance our knowledge on such phenomena, we present a multidisciplinary analysis of a selected case study that took place on 29 June 2017 in the Berlin metropolitan area. Our analysis provides evidence of the extremeness of the case from the atmospheric and the impacts perspectives as well as new insights on the physical mechanisms of the event at the meteorological and climate scales.
Lea Eisenstein, Benedikt Schulz, Ghulam A. Qadir, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Peter Knippertz
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 1157–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-1157-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Mesoscale high-wind features within extratropical cyclones can cause immense damage. Here, we present RAMEFI, a novel approach to objectively identify the wind features based on a probabilistic random forest. RAMEFI enables a wide range of applications such as probabilistic predictions for the occurrence or a multi-decadal climatology of these features, which will be the focus of Part 2 of the study, with the goal of improving wind and, specifically, wind gust forecasts in the long run.
Assaf Hochman, Francesco Marra, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Shira Raveh-Rubin, Yizhak Yosef, and Georgios Zittis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 749–777, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-749-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Gaining a complete understanding of extreme weather, from its physical drivers to its impacts on society, is important in supporting future risk reduction and adaptation measures. Here, we provide a review of the available scientific literature, knowledge gaps and key open questions in the study of extreme weather events over the vulnerable eastern Mediterranean region.
Lisa-Ann Kautz, Olivia Martius, Stephan Pfahl, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, Pedro M. Sousa, and Tim Woollings
Weather Clim. Dynam., 3, 305–336, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric blocking is associated with stationary, self-sustaining and long-lasting high-pressure systems. They can cause or at least influence surface weather extremes, such as heat waves, cold spells, heavy precipitation events, droughts or wind extremes. The location of the blocking determines where and what type of extreme event will occur. These relationships are also important for weather prediction and may change due to global warming.
Animesh K. Gain, Yves Bühler, Pascal Haegeli, Daniela Molinari, Mario Parise, David J. Peres, Joaquim G. Pinto, Kai Schröter, Ricardo M. Trigo, María Carmen Llasat, and Heidi Kreibich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 985–993, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-985-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
To mark the 20th anniversary of Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS), an interdisciplinary and international journal dedicated to the public discussion and open-access publication of high-quality studies and original research on natural hazards and their consequences, we highlight 11 key publications covering major subject areas of NHESS that stood out within the past 20 years.
Florian Ehmele, Lisa-Ann Kautz, Hendrik Feldmann, Yi He, Martin Kadlec, Fanni D. Kelemen, Hilke S. Lentink, Patrick Ludwig, Desmond Manful, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
For various applications, it is crucial to have profound knowledge of the frequency, severity, and risk of extreme flood events. Such events are characterized by very long return periods which observations can not cover. We use a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations as input for a hydrological model. Precipitation data were post-processed to reduce systematic errors. The representation of precipitation and discharge is improved, and estimates of long return periods become robust.
Kim H. Stadelmaier, Patrick Ludwig, Pascal Bertran, Pierre Antoine, Xiaoxu Shi, Gerrit Lohmann, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Clim. Past, 17, 2559–2576, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-2559-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We use regional climate simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum to reconstruct permafrost and to identify areas of thermal contraction cracking of the ground in western Europe. We find ground cracking, a precondition for the development of permafrost proxies, south of the probable permafrost border, implying that permafrost was not the limiting factor for proxy development. A good agreement with permafrost and climate proxy data is achieved when easterly winds are modelled more frequently.
Silje Lund Sørland, Roman Brogli, Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Emmanuele Russo, Jonas Van de Walle, Bodo Ahrens, Ivonne Anders, Edoardo Bucchignani, Edouard L. Davin, Marie-Estelle Demory, Alessandro Dosio, Hendrik Feldmann, Barbara Früh, Beate Geyer, Klaus Keuler, Donghyun Lee, Delei Li, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Seung-Ki Min, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Burkhardt Rockel, Christoph Schär, Christian Steger, and Wim Thiery
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We review the contribution from the CLM-Community to regional climate projections following the CORDEX framework over Europe, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia, and Africa. How the model configuration, horizontal and vertical resolutions, and choice of driving data influence the model results for the five domains is assessed, with the purpose of aiding the planning and design of regional climate simulations in the future.
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Skillful forecasts of extreme weather events have a major socioeconomic relevance. Here, we compare two approaches to diagnose the predictability of eastern Mediterranean heat waves: one based on recent developments in dynamical systems theory and one leveraging numerical ensemble weather forecasts. We conclude that the former can be a useful and cost-efficient complement to conventional numerical forecasts for understanding the dynamics of eastern Mediterranean heat waves.
Cited articles
Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B.,
Klein Tank, A., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., Tagipour, A., Rupa Kumar, K., Revadekar, J., Griffiths, G., Vincent, L., Stephenson, D. B., Burn, J., Aguilar, E., Brunet, M., Taylor, M., New, M., Zhai, P., Rusticucci, M., and Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L.: Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 111, D05109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006290, 2006. a
Baldauf, M., Seifert, A., Förstner, J., Majewski, D., Raschendorfer, M., and
Reinhardt, T.: Operational Convective-Scale Numerical Weather Prediction with
the COSMO Model: Description and Sensitivities, Mon. Weather Rev., 139, 3887–3905, https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-10-05013.1, 2011. a
Ban, N., Schmidli, J., and Schär, C.: Evaluation of the
convection-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long
simulations, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 7889–7907,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021478, 2014. a
Ban, N., Caillaud, C., Coppola, E., Pichelli, E., Sobolowski, S., Adinolfi, M., Ahrens, B., Alias, A., Anders, I., Bastin, S., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Brisson, E., Cardoso, R. M., Chan, S. C., Christensen, Ø. B., Fernández, J., Fita, L., Frisius, T., Gašparac, G., Giorgi, F., Goergen, K., Haugen, J. E., Hodnebrog, Ø., Kartsios, S., Katragkou, E., Kendon, E. J., Keuler, K., Lavin-Gullon, A., Lenderink, G., Leutwyler, D., Lorenz, T., Maraun, D., Mercogliano, P., Milovac, J., Panitz, H.-J., Raffa, M., Remedio, A. R., Schär, C., Soares, P. M. M., Srnec, L., Steensen, B. M., Stocchi, P., Tölle, M. H., Truhetz, H., Vergara-Temprado, J., de Vries, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., Wulfmeyer, V., and Zander, M. J.: The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution, part I: evaluation of precipitation, Clim. Dynam., 57, 275–302, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05708-w, 2021. a, b, c
Barriopedro, D., Fischer, E. M., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., and
García-Herrera, R.: The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature
record map of Europe, Science, 332, 220–224, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1201224,
2011. a
Basu, R. and Samet, J. M.: Relation between elevated ambient temperature and
mortality: a review of the epidemiologic evidence., Epidemiol. Rev., 24,
190–202, https://doi.org/10.1093/epirev/mxf007, 2002. a
Becker, F., Fink, A., Bissolli, P., and Pinto, J. G.: Towards a more
comprehensive assessment of the intensity of historical European heat waves
(1979–2019), Atmos. Sci. Lett., 23, e1120, https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1120, 2022. a
Berg, P., Feldmann, H., and Panitz, H.-J.: Bias correction of high resolution
regional climate model data, J. Hydrol., 448, 80–92,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.026, 2012. a
BfN – Bundesamt für Naturschutz: Naturräume und Großlandschaften Deutschlands, https://geodienste.bfn.de (last access: 30 April 2021), 2015. a
Biesbroek, G. R., Swart, R. J., Carter, T. R., Cowan, C., Henrichs, T., Mela,
H., Morecroft, M. D., and Rey, D.: Europe adapts to climate change: comparing
national adaptation strategies, Global Environ. Change, 20, 440–450,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.03.005, 2010. a
Błażejczyk, K., Jendritzky, G., Bröde, P., Fiala, D., Havenith, G., Epstein, Y., Psikuta, A., and Kampmann, B.: An introduction to the universal thermal climate index (UTCI), Geographia Polonica, 86, 5–10,
https://doi.org/10.7163/GPol.2013.1, 2013. a
Brands, S.: A circulation-based performance atlas of the CMIP5 and 6 models for regional climate studies in the Northern Hemisphere mid-to-high latitudes, Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1375–1411, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1375-2022, 2022. a
Brecht, B. M., Schädler, G., and Schipper, J. W.: UTCI climatology and its future change in Germany–an RCM ensemble approach, Meteorol. Z., 29,
97–116, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2020/1010, 2020. a, b
Brisson, E., Van Weverberg, K., Demuzere, M., Devis, A., Saeed, S., Stengel,
M., and van Lipzig, N. P.: How well can a convection-permitting climate model
reproduce decadal statistics of precipitation, temperature and cloud
characteristics?, Clim. Dynam., 47, 3043–3061, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3012-z, 2016. a
Cannon, A. J., Sobie, S. R., and Murdock, T. Q.: Bias correction of GCM
precipitation by quantile mapping: how well do methods preserve changes in
quantiles and extremes?, J. Climate, 28, 6938–6959, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1, 2015. a
Collins, W. J., Bellouin, N., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Gedney, N., Halloran, P., Hinton, T., Hughes, J., Jones, C. D., Joshi, M., Liddicoat, S., Martin, G., O'Connor, F., Rae, J., Senior, C., Sitch, S., Totterdell, I., Wiltshire, A., and Woodward, S.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2, Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 1051–1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011. a
Daniel, M., Lemonsu, A., Déqué, M., Somot, S., Alias, A., and Masson,
V.: Benefits of explicit urban parameterization in regional climate modeling
to study climate and city interactions, Clim. Dynam., 52, 2745–2764,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4289-x, 2019. a
De Bono, A., Peduzzi, P., Kluser, S., and Giuliani, G.: Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe, Environment Alert Bulletin, 2, 4,
https://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:32255 (last access: 3 August 2023), 2004. a
Della-Marta, P. M., Haylock, M. R., Luterbacher, J., and Wanner, H.: Doubled
length of western European summer heat waves since 1880, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 112, D15103, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008510, 2007. a
Ehmele, F., Kautz, L.-A., Feldmann, H., He, Y., Kadlec, M., Kelemen, F. D.,
Lentink, H. S., Ludwig, P., Manful, D., and Pinto, J. G.: Adaptation and
application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for
modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin, Nat.
Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 677–692, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022,
2022. a
Fanger, P. O.: Thermal comfort. Analysis and applications in environmental
engineering, Danish Technical Press, Copenhagen, https://doi.org/10.1177/146642407209200337, 1970. a
Fiala, D., Havenith, G., Bröde, P., Kampmann, B., and Jendritzky, G.:
UTCI-Fiala multi-node model of human heat transfer and temperature regulation, Int. J. Biometeorol., 56, 429–441, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0424-7, 2012. a, b
García-Herrera, R., Díaz, J., Trigo, R. M., Luterbacher, J., and
Fischer, E. M.: A review of the European summer heat wave of 2003, Crit. Rev.
Environ. Sci. Technol., 40, 267–306, https://doi.org/10.1080/10643380802238137, 2010. a
Giorgetta, M. A., Jungclaus, J., Reick, C. H., Legutke, S., Bader, J.,
Böttinger, M., Brovkin, V., Crueger, T., Esch, M., Fieg, K., Glushak, K., Gayler, V., Haak, H., Hollweg, H.-D., Ilyina, T., Kinne, S., Kornblueh, L., Matei, D., Mauritsen, T., Mikolajewicz, U., Mueller, W., Notz, D., Pithan, F., Raddatz, T., Rast, S., Redler, R., Roeckner, E., Schmidt, H., Schnur, R., Segschneider, J., Six, K. D., Stockhause, M., Timmreck, C., Wegner, J., Widmann, H., Wieners, K.-H., Claussen, M., Marotzke, J., and Stevens, B.: Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 5, 572–597, https://doi.org/10.1002/jame.20038, 2013. a
Giorgi, F., Bi, X., and Pal, J.: Mean, interannual variability and trends in a regional climate change experiment over Europe. II: climate change scenarios (2071–2100), Clim. Dynam., 23, 839–858, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0467-0, 2004. a
Hackenbruch, J., Kunz-Plapp, T., Müller, S., and Schipper, J. W.: Tailoring climate parameters to information needs for local adaptation to climate change, Climate, 5, 25, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli5020025, 2017. a, b, c
Havenith, G., Fiala, D., Błazejczyk, K., Richards, M., Bröde, P.,
Holmér, I., Rintamaki, H., Benshabat, Y., and Jendritzky, G.: The UTCI-clothing model, Int. J. Biometeorol., 56, 461–470,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0451-4, 2012. a, b
Hoffmann, P., Reinhart, V., Rechid, D., de Noblet-Ducoudréé, N., Davin, E. L., Asmus, C., Bechtel, B., Böhner, J., Katragkou, E., and Luyssaert, S.: High-resolution land-use land-cover change data for regional climate modelling applications over Europe – Part 2: Historical and future changes, Earth Syst. Sci. Data Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2021-252, 2021. a
Hohenegger, C., Brockhaus, P., and Schar, C.: Towards climate simulations at
cloud-resolving scales, Meteorol. Z., 17, 383–394,
https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0303, 2008. a, b
IPCC: Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, 2023. a, b, c, d
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer,
L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin, E., van Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher, C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., Samuelsson, P., Somot, S., Soussana, J.-F., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou, P.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014. a
Jendritzky, G., Havenith, G., Weihs, P., Batchvarova, E., and DeDear, R.: The universal thermal climate index UTCI goal and state of COST action 730, Environ. Ergonom., XII, 509–512, 2007. a
Jendritzky, G., de Dear, R., and Havenith, G.: UTCI – why another thermal
index?, Int. J. Biometeorol., 56, 421–428, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-011-0513-7,
2012. a
Kerkhoff, C., Künsch, H. R., and Schär, C.: Assessment of bias
assumptions for climate models, J. Climate, 27, 6799–6818,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00716.1, 2014. a
Kjellström, E., Bärring, L., Jacob, D., Jones, R., Lenderink, G., and
Schär, C.: Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe, Climatic Change, 81, 249–265,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9220-5, 2007. a
Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G., and Ullerstig,
A.: 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from
an ensemble of regional climate model simulations, Tellus A, 63, 24–40,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00475.x, 2011. a
Kyselỳ, J.: Influence of the persistence of circulation patterns on warm
and cold temperature anomalies in Europe: analysis over the 20th century,
Global Planet. Change, 62, 147–163, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2008.01.003, 2008. a
Laube, N.: Predictability of European Heat Waves, PhD thesis, KIT – Karlsruher Institut für Technologie, Karlsruhe, https://doi.org/10.5445/IR/1000098837, 2019. a
Lavin-Gullon, A., Milovac, J., Garcia-Diez, M., and Fernandez, J.: Spin-up time and internal variability analysis for overlapping time slices in a regional climate model, Clim. Dynam., 61, 47–64, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06560-2, 2023. a
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J., Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S., and Zhou, T.: Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 553–672, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006, 2021. a, b
Lee, T. M., Markowitz, E. M., Howe, P. D., Ko, C.-Y., and Leiserowitz, A. A.:
Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the
world, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 1014–1020, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2728, 2015. a
Lemos, M. C., Kirchhoff, C. J., and Ramprasad, V.: Narrowing the climate
information usability gap, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 789–794,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1614, 2012. a
Maraun, D.: Bias correcting climate change simulations-a critical review, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 2, 211–220, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x, 2016. a, b
Mearns, L. O., Katz, R. W., and Schneider, S. H.: Extreme high-temperature
events: changes in their probabilities with changes in mean temperature, J.
Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 23, 1601–1613,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<1601:EHTECI>2.0.CO;2, 1984. a
Moser, S. C.: Reflections on climate change communication research and practice in the second decade of the 21st century: what more is there to say?, Wires Clim. Change, 7, 345–369, https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.403, 2016. a
Nairn, J. R. and Fawcett, R. J.: The excess heat factor: a metric for heatwave intensity and its use in classifying heatwave severity, Int. J. Environ. Res. Publ. Health, 12, 227–253, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120100227, 2015. a
Nijsse, F. J., Cox, P. M., and Williamson, M. S.: Emergent constraints on
transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)
from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11,
737–750, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-737-2020, 2020. a, b, c
Pastén-Zapata, E., Jones, J. M., Moggridge, H., and Widmann, M.: Evaluation of the performance of Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Models for assessing hydrological climate change impacts in Great Britain: A comparison of different spatial resolutions and quantile mapping bias correction methods, J. Hydrol., 584, 124653, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124653, 2020. a
Perez, J., Menendez, M., Mendez, F. J., and Losada, I. J.: Evaluating the
performance of CMIP3 and CMIP5 global climate models over the north-east
Atlantic region, Clim. Dynam., 43, 2663–2680, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2078-8, 2014. a
Perkins, S. E. and Alexander, L. V.: On the measurement of heat waves, J.
Climate, 26, 4500–4517, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00383.1, 2013. a
Pichelli, E., Coppola, E., Sobolowski, S., Ban, N., Giorgi, F., Stocchi, P.,
Alias, A., Belušić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., et al.: The
first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale
resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation, Clim.
Dynam., 56, 3581–3602, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05657-4, 2021. a, b
Pierce, D. W., Cayan, D. R., Maurer, E. P., Abatzoglou, J. T., and Hegewisch,
K. C.: Improved bias correction techniques for hydrological simulations of
climate change, J. Hydrometeorol., 16, 2421–2442, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0236.1, 2015. a, b, c
Poumadere, M., Mays, C., Le Mer, S., and Blong, R.: The 2003 heat wave in
France: dangerous climate change here and now, Risk Anal., 25, 1483–1494,
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00694.x, 2005. a
Prein, A., Gobiet, A., Suklitsch, M., Truhetz, H., Awan, N., Keuler, K., and
Georgievski, G.: Added value of convection permitting seasonal simulations,
Clim. Dynam., 41, 2655–2677, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1744-6, 2013. a
Prein, A. F., Langhans, W., Fosser, G., Ferrone, A., Ban, N., Goergen, K.,
Keller, M., Tölle, M., Gutjahr, O., Feser, F., Brisson, E., Kollet, S., Schmidli, J., van Lipzig, N. P. M., and Leung, R.: A review on regional convection-permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges, Rev. Geophys., 53, 323–361, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014RG000475, 2015. a, b, c
Prodhomme, C., Doblas-Reyes, F., Bellprat, O., and Dutra, E.: Impact of
land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over
Europe, Clim. Dynam., 47, 919–935, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4, 2016. a
Qian, W. and Chang, H. H.: Projecting Health Impacts of Future Temperature: A
Comparison of Quantile-Mapping Bias-Correction Methods, Int. J. Environ. Res.
Publ. Health, 18, 1992, https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18041992, 2021. a
Rauthe, M., Steiner, H., Riediger, U., Mazurkiewicz, A., and Gratzki, A.: A
Central European precipitation climatology – Part I: Generation and validation of a high-resolution gridded daily data set (HYRAS), Meteorol. Z, 22, 235–256, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0436, 2013. a
Razafimaharo, C., Krähenmann, S., Höpp, S., Rauthe, M., and
Deutschländer, T.: New high-resolution gridded dataset of daily mean,
minimum, and maximum temperature and relative humidity for Central Europe
(HYRAS), Theor. Appl. Climatol., 142, 1531–1553, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03388-w, 2020. a
Reckien, D., Salvia, M., Heidrich, O., Church, J. M., Pietrapertosa, F.,
de Gregorio-Hurtado, S., d'Alonzo, V., Foley, A., Simoes, S. G., Lorencová, E. K., Orru, H., Orru, K., Wejs, A., Flacke, J., Olazabal, M., Geneletti, D., Feliu, E., Vasilie, S., Nador, C., Krook-Riekkola, A., Matosovic, M., Fokaides, P. A., Ioannou, B. I., Flamos, A., Spyridaki, N.-A.,
Balzan, M. V., Fülöp, O., Paspaldzhiev, I., Grafakos, S., and Dawson, R.: How are cities planning to respond to climate change? Assessment of local climate plans from 885 cities in the EU-28, J. Clean. Product., 191, 207–219, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.220, 2018. a
Robine, J.-M., Cheung, S. L., Le Roy, S., Van Oyen, H., and Herrmann, F. R.:
Report on excess mortality in Europe during summer 2003, EU Community Action
Programme for Public Health, Grant Agreement 2005114, http://ec.europa.eu/health/ph_projects/2005/action1/docs/action1_2005_a2_15_en.pdf
(last access: 3 August 2023), 2007. a
Rockel, B., Will, A., and Hense, A.: The regional climate model COSMO-CLM
(CCLM), Meteorol. Z., 17, 347–348, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0309, 2008. a
Russo, S., Dosio, A., Graversen, R. G., Sillmann, J., Carrao, H., Dunbar,
M. B., Singleton, A., Montagna, P., Barbola, P., and Vogt, J. V.: Magnitude
of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming
world, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 119, 12500–12512, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022098, 2014. a, b, c, d
Russo, S., Sillmann, J., and Fischer, E. M.: Top ten European heatwaves since
1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades, Environ. Res. Lett., 10,
124003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124003, 2015. a
Schädler, G., Panitz, H.-J., Christner, E., Feldmann, H., Karremann, M.,
and Laube, N.: Regional Climate Simulations with COSMO-CLM: Ensembles, Very
High Resolution and Paleoclimate, in: High Performance Computing in Science
and Engineering'17, 411–429, Springer, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68394-2_24, 2018. a
Schär, C. and Jendritzky, G.: Hot news from summer 2003, Nature, 432,
559–560, https://doi.org/10.1038/432559a, 2004. a
Schär, C., Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Frei, C., Häberli, C.,
Liniger, M. A., and Appenzeller, C.: The role of increasing temperature
variability in European summer heatwaves, Nature, 427, 332–336,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02300, 2004. a
Schiemann, R., Athanasiadis, P., Barriopedro, D., Doblas-Reyes, F., Lohmann,
K., Roberts, M. J., Sein, D. V., Roberts, C. D., Terray, L., and Vidale, P. L.: Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models:
evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 277–292,
https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-277-2020, 2020. a
Schipper, J., Hackenbruch, J., Lentink, H., Nerding, K.-U., and Müller, S.: Sensitivitätsbereiche von branchenspezifischen Klimakenngrößen in Baden-Württemberg – die “Sensitivitätsampel”, KLIMOPASS-Berichte, https://pd.lubw.de/30392 (last access: 3 August 2023), 2016. a
Schipper, J. W., Hackenbruch, J., Lentink, H. S., and Sedlmeier, K.:
Integrating Adaptation Expertise into Regional Climate Data Analyses through
Tailored Climate Parameters, Meteorol. Z., 28, 41–57, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2019/0878, 2019. a
Schrodin, R. and Heise, E.: The Multi-Layer Version of the DWD Soil Model
TERRA-LM, COSMO Technical Report, DWD, https://doi.org/10.5676/DWD_pub/nwv/cosmo-tr_2, 2001. a
Schubert, D., van der Linden, R., Fink, A. H., Katzfey, J., Phan-Van, T.,
Maßmeyer, K., and Pinto, J. G.: Klimaprojektionen für die
hydrologische Modellierung in Südvietnam, Hydrol. Wasserbewirt., 61, 383–396, https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2017,6_2, 2017. a
Schulz, J.-P. and Vogel, G.: Improving the processes in the land surface scheme TERRA: Bare soil evaporation and skin temperature, Atmosphere, 11, 513, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11050513, 2020. a
Soares, P., Careto, J., Cardoso, R. M., Goergen, K., Katragkou, E., Sobolowski, S., Coppola, E., Ban, N., Belvsić, D., Berthou, S., Caillaud, C., Dobler, A., Hodnebrog, O., Kartsios, S., Lenderink, G., Lorenz, T., Milovac, J., Feldmann, H., Pichelli, E., Truhetz, H., Demory, M., de Vries, H., Warrach-Sagi, K., Keuler, K., Raffa, M., and Tölle, M., and Sieck, K. B. S.: The added value of km-scale simulations to describe temperature over complex orography: the CORDEX FPS-Convection multi-model ensemble runs over the Alps, Clim. Dynam., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06593-7, in press, 2022. a, b
Sørland, S. L., Brogli, R., Pothapakula, P. K., Russo, E., Van de Walle, J., Ahrens, B., Anders, I., Bucchignani, E., Davin, E. L., Demory, M.-E., Dosio, A., Feldmann, H., Früh, B., Geyer, B., Keuler, K., Lee, D., Li, D., van Lipzig, N. P. M., Min, S.-K., Panitz, H.-J., Rockel, B., Schär, C., Steger, C., and Thiery, W.: COSMO-CLM regional climate simulations in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework: a review, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5125–5154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5125-2021, 2021. a
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498,
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Teichmann, C., Bülow, K., Otto, J., Pfeifer, S., Rechid, D., Sieck, K., and Jacob, D.: Avoiding extremes: Benefits of staying below +1.5 ∘C compared to +2.0 ∘C and +3.0 ∘C global warming, Atmosphere, 9, 115, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9040115, 2018. a, b
Tiedtke, M.: A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in
large-scale models, Mon. Weather Rev., 117, 1779–1800,
https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117<1779:ACMFSF>2.0.CO;2, 1989. a, b, c
Tölle, M. H., Schefczyk, L., and Gutjahr, O.: Scale dependency of regional climate modeling of current and future climate extremes in Germany, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 134, 829–848, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2303-6, 2018. a
Trusilova, K., Schubert, S., Wouters, H., Früh, B., Grossman-Clarke, S.,
Demuzere, M., and Becker, P.: The urban land use in the COSMO-CLM model: a
comparison of three parameterizations for Berlin, Meteorol. Z., 25, 231–244, https://doi.org/10.1127/metz/2015/0587, 2016. a
Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V.
D. C., Fiorino, M., Gibson, J. K., Haseler, J., Hernandez, A., Kelly, G. A.,
Li, X., Onogi, K., Saarinen, S., Sokka, N., Allan, R. P., Andersson, E.,
Arpe, K., Balmaseda, M. A., Beljaars, A. C. M., Berg, L. V. D., Bidlot, J.,
Bormann, N., Caires, S., Chevallier, F., Dethof, A., Dragosavac, M., Fisher,
M., Fuentes, M., Hagemann, S., Hólm, E., Hoskins, B. J., Isaksen, L., Janssen, P. A. E. M., Jenne, R., Mcnally, A. P., Mahfouf, J.-F., Morcrette,
J.-J., Rayner, N. A., Saunders, R. W., Simon, P., Sterl, A., Trenberth,
K. E., Untch, A., Vasiljevic, D., Viterbo, P., and Woollen, J.: The ERA-40
re-analysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 131, 2961–3012, https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.04.176, 2005.
a
Van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard,
K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., Masui, T., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Smith, S. J., and Rose, S. K.: The representative concentration pathways: an overview, Climatic change, 109, 5–31, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z, 2011. a, b
Vautard, R., Gobiet, A., Sobolowski, S., Kjellström, E., Stegehuis, A.,
Watkiss, P., Mendlik, T., Landgren, O., Nikulin, G., Teichmann, C., and Jacob, D.: The European climate under a 2 ∘C global warming, Environ. Res. Lett., 9, 034006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006, 2014. a
Vidale, P. L., Lüthi, D., Wegmann, R., and Schär, C.: European summer
climate variability in a heterogeneous multi-model ensemble, Climatic Change,
81, 209–232, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9218-z, 2007. a
Voldoire, A., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Salas y Mélia, D., Decharme, B., Cassou,
C., Sénési, S., Valcke, S., Beau, I., Alias, A., Chevallier, M., Déqué, M., Deshayes, J., Douville, H., Fernandez, E., Madec, G., Maisonnave, E., Moine, M.-P., Planton, S., Saint-Martin, D., Szopa, S., Tyteca, S., Alkama, R., Belamari, S., Braun, A., Coquart, L., and Chauvin, F.: The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation, Clim. Dynam., 40, 2091–2121, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y, 2013. a
Vrac, M. and Naveau, P.: Stochastic downscaling of precipitation: From dry
events to heavy rainfalls, Water Resour. Res., 43, W07402, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006WR005308, 2007. a
Zuo, J., Pullen, S., Palmer, J., Bennetts, H., Chileshe, N., and Ma, T.:
Impacts of heat waves and corresponding measures: a review, J. Clean. Product., 92, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.12.078, 2015. a
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint