Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2873-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Future heat extremes and impacts in a convection-permitting climate ensemble over Germany
Marie Hundhausen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Natalie Laube
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany
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Cited
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate change signals of extreme precipitation return levels for Germany in a transient convection‐permitting simulation ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8393
- A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe J. Martins et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024
- A global CORDEX-based dataset delineating urban areas and their surroundings to assess climate change in megacities J. Diez-Sierra et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-06257-1
- Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation I. Dillerup et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026
- Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events F. Knutzen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025
- The evolution of heat exposure in changing societies and a changing climate from 1960 to 2100 A. Schäfer et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1491695
- Is satellite land surface temperature an appropriate proxy for intra-urban variability of daytime heat stress? F. Briegel et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.115045
- The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective T. Klimiuk et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025
- Sub-hourly precipitation and rainstorm event profiles in a convection-permitting multi-GCM ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100764
- Deep learning enables city-wide climate projections of street-level heat stress F. Briegel et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102564
- Aligning local adaptation needs with ETCCDI indices in Freudenstadt, a German municipality C. Mihalyfi-Dean et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02639-2
- Global Trends in Human Thermal Stress: A Spatiotemporal Analysis from 1940 to 2020 M. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00537-3
- Future precipitation extremes and urban flood risk assessment using a non-stationary and convection-permitting climate-hydrodynamic modeling framework P. Laux et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133607
- Regional nudged storylines for the European hot and dry summers 2018–2022: response of evapotranspiration regimes to climate change T. Klimiuk et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08205-0
- Towards better understanding the urban environment and its interactions with regional climate change - The WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study URB-RCC G. Langendijk et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102165
- Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart J. McMillan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025
16 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Climate change signals of extreme precipitation return levels for Germany in a transient convection‐permitting simulation ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8393
- A satellite view of the exceptionally warm summer of 2022 over Europe J. Martins et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1501-2024
- A global CORDEX-based dataset delineating urban areas and their surroundings to assess climate change in megacities J. Diez-Sierra et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-06257-1
- Dynamical system metrics and weather regimes explain the seasonally-varying link between European heatwaves and the large-scale atmospheric circulation I. Dillerup et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-265-2026
- Impacts on and damage to European forests from the 2018–2022 heat and drought events F. Knutzen et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-77-2025
- The evolution of heat exposure in changing societies and a changing climate from 1960 to 2100 A. Schäfer et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2025.1491695
- Is satellite land surface temperature an appropriate proxy for intra-urban variability of daytime heat stress? F. Briegel et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.115045
- The European summer heatwave of 2019 – a regional storyline perspective T. Klimiuk et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-239-2025
- Sub-hourly precipitation and rainstorm event profiles in a convection-permitting multi-GCM ensemble M. Hundhausen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2025.100764
- Deep learning enables city-wide climate projections of street-level heat stress F. Briegel et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102564
- Aligning local adaptation needs with ETCCDI indices in Freudenstadt, a German municipality C. Mihalyfi-Dean et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-026-02639-2
- Global Trends in Human Thermal Stress: A Spatiotemporal Analysis from 1940 to 2020 M. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00537-3
- Future precipitation extremes and urban flood risk assessment using a non-stationary and convection-permitting climate-hydrodynamic modeling framework P. Laux et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133607
- Regional nudged storylines for the European hot and dry summers 2018–2022: response of evapotranspiration regimes to climate change T. Klimiuk et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-026-08205-0
- Towards better understanding the urban environment and its interactions with regional climate change - The WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study URB-RCC G. Langendijk et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102165
- Mapping vulnerability to climate change for spatial planning in the region of Stuttgart J. McMillan et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1573-2025
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 31 Aug 2026
Short summary
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over Germany is projected to increase by 26 % (100 %) in a 2 °C (3 °C) warmer world. The increase is strongest in late summer, relatively homogeneous in space, and accompanied by increasing variance in HW length. Tailored parameters to climate adaptation to heat revealed dependency on major landscapes, and a nonlinear, exponential increase for parameters characterizing strong heat stress is expected.
Using a convection-permitting regional climate ensemble, the magnitude of heat waves (HWs) over...
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