Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
03 Aug 2023
Research article |
| 03 Aug 2023
| 03 Aug 2023
A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany
Katrin M. Nissen
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Martina Wilde
Institute for Applied Physical Geography, University of Vechta, Vechta, Germany
Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
Thomas M. Kreuzer
Institute of Geography and Geology, University of Würzburg, Würzburg, Germany
Annika Wohlers
Institute for Applied Physical Geography, University of Vechta, Vechta, Germany
Bodo Damm
Institute for Applied Physical Geography, University of Vechta, Vechta, Germany
Uwe Ulbrich
Institute of Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Related authors
Subham Mukherjee, Kei Namba, Katrin M. Nissen, Ehsan Razipoor, Stefan Heiland, and Brigitta Schütt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-469, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Berlin’s parks are vital for recreation, biodiversity, and climate resilience, yet they face growing challenges from socio-economic inequalities and climate change. Our review examines how factors like gentrification and extreme weather impact access to and sustainability of these parks. By analysing over 200 studies, we highlight the need for inclusive policies, community engagement, and climate-adaptive park designs to ensure that Berlin’s parks remain accessible, resilient, and socially just.
Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Saskia Arndt, Kei Namba, Márk Somogyvári, Frederik Bart, Fabio Brill, Juan Dueñas, Peter Feindt, Daniel Johnson, Nariman Mahmoodi, Christoph Merz, Subham Mukherjee, Katrin Nissen, Eva Nora Paton, Tobias Sauter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Franziska Tügel, Thomas Vogelpohl, Stenka Valentinova Vulova, Behnam Zamani, and Hui Hui Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-428, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change escalates, the Berlin-Brandenburg region faces new challenges. Climate change-induced extreme events are expected to cause new conflicts to emerge and aggravate existing ones. To guide future research, we co-develop a list of key questions on climate and water challenges in the region. Our findings highlight the need for new research approaches. We expect this list to provide a roadmap for actionable knowledge production to address climate and water challenges in the region.
Franziska Tügel, Katrin M. Nissen, Lennart Steffen, Yangwei Zhang, Uwe Ulbrich, and Reinhard Hinkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how extreme rainfall in Berlin, Germany, may intensify due to global warming and how that could worsen flooding in a selected part of the city. We assess the role of the drainage system, infiltration from unsealed surfaces, and a potential adaptation scenario with all roofs as retention roofs in reducing flooding under extreme rainfall. Combining climate and hydrodynamic simulations, we provide insights into future challenges and possible solutions for urban flood management.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Katrin Nissen, Lukas Brunner, and Bruno Merz
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel stochastic weather generator conditioned on circulation patterns and regional temperature, accounting for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric changes. We extensively evaluate the model for the central European region. It statistically downscales precipitation for future periods, generating long, spatially and temporally consistent series. Results suggest an increase in extreme precipitation over the region, offering key benefits for hydrological impact studies.
Katrin M. Nissen, Stefan Rupp, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Björn Guse, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A statistical model is introduced which quantifies the influence of individual potential triggering factors and their interactions on rockfall probability in central Europe. The most important factor is daily precipitation, which is most effective if sub-surface moisture levels are high. Freeze–thaw cycles in the preceding days can further increase the rockfall hazard. The model can be applied to climate simulations in order to investigate the effect of climate change on rockfall probability.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Andreas Trojand, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2331–2350, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2331-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
The study investigates how the intensity of previous windstorm events and the time between two events affect the vulnerability of residential buildings in Germany. By analyzing 23 years of data, it was found that higher intensity of previous events generally reduces vulnerability in subsequent storms, while shorter intervals between events increase vulnerability. The results emphasize the approach of considering vulnerability in risk assessments as temporally dynamic.
Rike Lorenz, Nico Becker, Barry Gardiner, Uwe Ulbrich, Marc Hanewinkel, and Benjamin Schmitz
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 2179–2196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-2179-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Tree fall events have an impact on forests and transport systems. Our study explored tree fall in relation to wind and other weather conditions. We used tree fall data along railway lines and ERA5 and radar meteorological data to build a logistic regression model. We found that high and prolonged wind speeds, wet conditions, and high air density increase tree fall risk. These factors might change in the changing climate, which in return will change risks for trees, forests and transport.
Subham Mukherjee, Kei Namba, Katrin M. Nissen, Ehsan Razipoor, Stefan Heiland, and Brigitta Schütt
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-469, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-469, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS).
Short summary
Short summary
Berlin’s parks are vital for recreation, biodiversity, and climate resilience, yet they face growing challenges from socio-economic inequalities and climate change. Our review examines how factors like gentrification and extreme weather impact access to and sustainability of these parks. By analysing over 200 studies, we highlight the need for inclusive policies, community engagement, and climate-adaptive park designs to ensure that Berlin’s parks remain accessible, resilient, and socially just.
Pedro Henrique Lima Alencar, Saskia Arndt, Kei Namba, Márk Somogyvári, Frederik Bart, Fabio Brill, Juan Dueñas, Peter Feindt, Daniel Johnson, Nariman Mahmoodi, Christoph Merz, Subham Mukherjee, Katrin Nissen, Eva Nora Paton, Tobias Sauter, Dörthe Tetzlaff, Franziska Tügel, Thomas Vogelpohl, Stenka Valentinova Vulova, Behnam Zamani, and Hui Hui Zhang
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-428, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-428, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
As climate change escalates, the Berlin-Brandenburg region faces new challenges. Climate change-induced extreme events are expected to cause new conflicts to emerge and aggravate existing ones. To guide future research, we co-develop a list of key questions on climate and water challenges in the region. Our findings highlight the need for new research approaches. We expect this list to provide a roadmap for actionable knowledge production to address climate and water challenges in the region.
Franziska Tügel, Katrin M. Nissen, Lennart Steffen, Yangwei Zhang, Uwe Ulbrich, and Reinhard Hinkelmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-445, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
This study examines how extreme rainfall in Berlin, Germany, may intensify due to global warming and how that could worsen flooding in a selected part of the city. We assess the role of the drainage system, infiltration from unsealed surfaces, and a potential adaptation scenario with all roofs as retention roofs in reducing flooding under extreme rainfall. Combining climate and hydrodynamic simulations, we provide insights into future challenges and possible solutions for urban flood management.
Elena Xoplaki, Florian Ellsäßer, Jens Grieger, Katrin M. Nissen, Joaquim G. Pinto, Markus Augenstein, Ting-Chen Chen, Hendrik Feldmann, Petra Friederichs, Daniel Gliksman, Laura Goulier, Karsten Haustein, Jens Heinke, Lisa Jach, Florian Knutzen, Stefan Kollet, Jürg Luterbacher, Niklas Luther, Susanna Mohr, Christoph Mudersbach, Christoph Müller, Efi Rousi, Felix Simon, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Svenja Szemkus, Sara M. Vallejo-Bernal, Odysseas Vlachopoulos, and Frederik Wolf
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 541–564, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-541-2025, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
Europe frequently experiences compound events, with major impacts. We investigate these events’ interactions, characteristics, and changes over time, focusing on socio-economic impacts in Germany and central Europe. Highlighting 2018’s extreme events, this study reveals impacts on water, agriculture, and forests and stresses the need for impact-focused definitions and better future risk quantification to support adaptation planning.
Viet Dung Nguyen, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Katrin Nissen, Lukas Brunner, and Bruno Merz
Adv. Stat. Clim. Meteorol. Oceanogr., 10, 195–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-10-195-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We present a novel stochastic weather generator conditioned on circulation patterns and regional temperature, accounting for dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric changes. We extensively evaluate the model for the central European region. It statistically downscales precipitation for future periods, generating long, spatially and temporally consistent series. Results suggest an increase in extreme precipitation over the region, offering key benefits for hydrological impact studies.
Bjorn Stevens, Stefan Adami, Tariq Ali, Hartwig Anzt, Zafer Aslan, Sabine Attinger, Jaana Bäck, Johanna Baehr, Peter Bauer, Natacha Bernier, Bob Bishop, Hendryk Bockelmann, Sandrine Bony, Guy Brasseur, David N. Bresch, Sean Breyer, Gilbert Brunet, Pier Luigi Buttigieg, Junji Cao, Christelle Castet, Yafang Cheng, Ayantika Dey Choudhury, Deborah Coen, Susanne Crewell, Atish Dabholkar, Qing Dai, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Dale Durran, Ayoub El Gaidi, Charlie Ewen, Eleftheria Exarchou, Veronika Eyring, Florencia Falkinhoff, David Farrell, Piers M. Forster, Ariane Frassoni, Claudia Frauen, Oliver Fuhrer, Shahzad Gani, Edwin Gerber, Debra Goldfarb, Jens Grieger, Nicolas Gruber, Wilco Hazeleger, Rolf Herken, Chris Hewitt, Torsten Hoefler, Huang-Hsiung Hsu, Daniela Jacob, Alexandra Jahn, Christian Jakob, Thomas Jung, Christopher Kadow, In-Sik Kang, Sarah Kang, Karthik Kashinath, Katharina Kleinen-von Königslöw, Daniel Klocke, Uta Kloenne, Milan Klöwer, Chihiro Kodama, Stefan Kollet, Tobias Kölling, Jenni Kontkanen, Steve Kopp, Michal Koran, Markku Kulmala, Hanna Lappalainen, Fakhria Latifi, Bryan Lawrence, June Yi Lee, Quentin Lejeun, Christian Lessig, Chao Li, Thomas Lippert, Jürg Luterbacher, Pekka Manninen, Jochem Marotzke, Satoshi Matsouoka, Charlotte Merchant, Peter Messmer, Gero Michel, Kristel Michielsen, Tomoki Miyakawa, Jens Müller, Ramsha Munir, Sandeep Narayanasetti, Ousmane Ndiaye, Carlos Nobre, Achim Oberg, Riko Oki, Tuba Özkan-Haller, Tim Palmer, Stan Posey, Andreas Prein, Odessa Primus, Mike Pritchard, Julie Pullen, Dian Putrasahan, Johannes Quaas, Krishnan Raghavan, Venkatachalam Ramaswamy, Markus Rapp, Florian Rauser, Markus Reichstein, Aromar Revi, Sonakshi Saluja, Masaki Satoh, Vera Schemann, Sebastian Schemm, Christina Schnadt Poberaj, Thomas Schulthess, Cath Senior, Jagadish Shukla, Manmeet Singh, Julia Slingo, Adam Sobel, Silvina Solman, Jenna Spitzer, Philip Stier, Thomas Stocker, Sarah Strock, Hang Su, Petteri Taalas, John Taylor, Susann Tegtmeier, Georg Teutsch, Adrian Tompkins, Uwe Ulbrich, Pier-Luigi Vidale, Chien-Ming Wu, Hao Xu, Najibullah Zaki, Laure Zanna, Tianjun Zhou, and Florian Ziemen
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 2113–2122, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-2113-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To manage Earth in the Anthropocene, new tools, new institutions, and new forms of international cooperation will be required. Earth Virtualization Engines is proposed as an international federation of centers of excellence to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.
Madlen Peter, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1261–1285, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1261-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The paper introduces a statistical modeling approach describing daily extreme precipitation in Germany more accurately by including changes within the year and between the years simultaneously. The changing seasonality over years is regionally divergent and mainly weak. However, some regions stand out with a more pronounced linear rise of summer intensities, indicating a possible climate change signal. Improved modeling of extreme precipitation is beneficial for risk assessment and adaptation.
Johannes Riebold, Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Tido Semmler, and Dörthe Handorf
Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 663–682, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-4-663-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Arctic sea ice loss might impact the atmospheric circulation outside the Arctic and therefore extremes over mid-latitudes. Here, we analyze model experiments to initially assess the influence of sea ice loss on occurrence frequencies of large-scale circulation patterns. Some of these detected circulation changes can be linked to changes in occurrences of European temperature extremes. Compared to future global temperature increases, the sea-ice-related impacts are however of secondary relevance.
Edmund P. Meredith, Uwe Ulbrich, and Henning W. Rust
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 851–867, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-16-851-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Cell-tracking algorithms allow for the study of properties of a convective cell across its lifetime and, in particular, how these respond to climate change. We investigated whether the design of the algorithm can affect the magnitude of the climate-change signal. The algorithm's criteria for identifying a cell were found to have a strong impact on the warming response. The sensitivity of the warming response to different algorithm settings and cell types should thus be fully explored.
Katrin M. Nissen, Stefan Rupp, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Björn Guse, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 2117–2130, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2117-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
A statistical model is introduced which quantifies the influence of individual potential triggering factors and their interactions on rockfall probability in central Europe. The most important factor is daily precipitation, which is most effective if sub-surface moisture levels are high. Freeze–thaw cycles in the preceding days can further increase the rockfall hazard. The model can be applied to climate simulations in order to investigate the effect of climate change on rockfall probability.
Michael Dietze, Rainer Bell, Ugur Ozturk, Kristen L. Cook, Christoff Andermann, Alexander R. Beer, Bodo Damm, Ana Lucia, Felix S. Fauer, Katrin M. Nissen, Tobias Sieg, and Annegret H. Thieken
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 1845–1856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-1845-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The flood that hit Europe in July 2021, specifically the Eifel, Germany, was more than a lot of fast-flowing water. The heavy rain that fell during the 3 d before also caused the slope to fail, recruited tree trunks that clogged bridges, and routed debris across the landscape. Especially in the upper parts of the catchments the flood was able to gain momentum. Here, we discuss how different landscape elements interacted and highlight the challenges of holistic future flood anticipation.
Alexander Pasternack, Jens Grieger, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 4335–4355, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-4335-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Decadal climate ensemble forecasts are increasingly being used to guide adaptation measures. To ensure the applicability of these probabilistic predictions, inherent systematic errors of the prediction system must be adjusted. Since it is not clear which statistical model is optimal for this purpose, we propose a recalibration strategy with a systematic model selection based on non-homogeneous boosting for identifying the most relevant features for both ensemble mean and ensemble spread.
Nico Becker, Henning W. Rust, and Uwe Ulbrich
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2857–2871, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2857-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
A set of models is developed to forecast hourly probabilities of weather-related road accidents in Germany at the spatial scale of administrative districts. Model verification shows that using precipitation and temperature data leads to the best accident forecasts. Based on weather forecast data we show that skilful predictions of accident probabilities of up to 21 h ahead are possible. The models can be used to issue impact-based warnings, which are relevant for road users and authorities.
Cited articles
Abaker, M., Abdelmaboud, A., Osman, M., Alghobiri, M., and Abdelmotlab, A.: A
Rock-fall Early Warning System Based on Logistic Regression Model, Intel. Automat. Soft Comput., 28, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.32604/iasc.2021.017714, 2021. a
Allen, S. and Huggel, C.: Extremely warm temperatures as a potential cause of
recent high mountain rockfall, Global Planet. Change, 107, 59–69,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.04.007, 2013. a
Collison, A., Wade, S., Griffiths, J., and Dehn, M.: Modelling the impact of
predicted climate change on landslide frequency and magnitude in SE England,
Eng. Geol., 55, 205–218, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0013-7952(99)00121-0, 2000. a, b
Cornes, R., van der Schrier, G., van den Besselaar, E. J. M., and Jones, P. D.: An ensemble version of the E-OBS temperature and precipitation data sets., J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos, 123, 9391–9409, https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD028200, 2018.
a
COST Action 733: Cost733class software for classification of atmospheric
circulation, University of Augsburg [code], https://git.rz.uni-augsburg.de/philipan/cost733class-1.4 (last access: 6 July 2022), 2022. a
Crozier, M.: Deciphering the effect of climate change on landslide activity: A review, Geomorphology, 124, 260–267, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2010.04.009,
2010. a
Damm, B. and Klose, M.: The landslide database for Germany: Closing the gap at national level, Geomorphology, 249, 82–93,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.03.021, 2015. a
Dehn, M. and Buma, J.: Modelling future landslide activity based on general
circulation models, Geomorphology, 30, 175–187,
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0169-555X(99)00053-7, 1999. a, b
Dijkstra, T. A. and Dixon, N.: Climate change and slope stability in the UK:
challenges and approaches, Quart. J. Eng. Geol. Hydrogeol., 43, 371–385, https://doi.org/10.1144/1470-9236/09-036, 2010. a
DKRZ – Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum: Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) climate data server, https://esgf-data.dkrz.de (last access: 18 July 2022), 2022. a
Dorren, L. K. A.: A review of rockfall mechanics and modelling approaches,
Prog. Phys. Geogr., 27, 69–87, https://doi.org/10.1191/0309133303pp359ra, 2003. a
Droogers, P. and Allen, R. G.: Estimating Reference Evapotranspiration Under
Inaccurate Data Conditions, Irrig. Drain. Syst., 16, 33–45, 2002. a
DWD CDC – Climate Data Center: REGNIE grids of daily precipitation, DWD CDC [data set], https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/grids_germany/daily/regnie/ (last access: 13 August 2021), 2013. a
ECA&D – European Climate Assessment and Dataset: E-OBS gridded dataset, https://www.ecad.eu/download/ensembles/ensembles.php (last access: 10 March 2022), 2018. a
Froude, M. J. and Petley, D. N.: Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2161–2181,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018, 2018. a
Gariano, S. L. and Guzzetti, F.: Landslides in a changing climate, Earth-Sci. Rev., 162, 227–252, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2016.08.011, 2016. a, b
Gruber, S. and Haeberli, W.: Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its
temperature-related destabilization following climate change, J. Geophys. Res., 112, F02S18, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006jf000547, 2007. a, b, c
Haque, U., da Silva, P. F., Devoli, G., Pilz, J., Zhao, B., Khaloua, A.,
Wilopo, W., Andersen, P., Lu, P., Lee, J., Yamamoto, T., Keellings, D., Wu,
J.-H., and Glass, G. E.: The human cost of global warming: Deadly landslides and their triggers (1995–2014), Sci. Total Environ., 682, 673–684, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.415, 2019. a
Hargreaves, G. H.: Defining and using reference evapotranspiration, Irrig. Drain. Eng., 120, 1132–1139, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1994)120:6(1132), 1994. a
Hausfather, Z. and Peters, G. P.: Emissions – the `business as usual' story is misleading, Nature, 577, 618–620, https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3, 2020. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Biavati, G., Horányi, A., Muñoz Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Rozum, I., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Dee, D., and Thépaut, J.: ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present, CDS [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47, 2018. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A.,
Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D.,
Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer,
A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M.,
Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P.,
Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.: The ERA5 global
reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a
Highland, L. and Bobrowsky, P.: The Landslide Handbook – A Guide to
Understanding Landslides, vol. US Geological Survey Circular 1325, US Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, USA, https://doi.org/10.3133/cir1325, 2008. a
Huggel, C., Clague, J. J., and Korup, O.: Is climate change responsible for
changing landslide activity in high mountains?, Earth Surf. Proc. Land., 37, 77–91, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2223, 2012. a
Hungr, O., Leroueil, S., and Picarelli, L.: The Varnes classification of
landslide types, an update, Landslides, 11, 167–194,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-013-0436-y, 2014. a, b
IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, UK, ISBN 978052188010-7, 2007. a
IPCC: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate
Change Adaptation, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York,
NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245, 2012. a, b
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324,
2013. a, b
IPCC: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis, in: Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896, in press, 2021. a
Jacob, D., Elizalde, A., Haensler, A., Hagemann, S., Kumar, P., Podzun, R.,
Rechid, D., Remedio, A. R., Saeed, F., Sieck, K., Teichmann, C., and Wilhelm,
C.: Assessing the Transferability of the Regional Climate Model REMO to
Different COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX)
Regions, Atmosphere, 3, 181–199, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos3010181, 2012. a, b, c
Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E.,
Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C.,
Keuler, K., Kovats, S., Kröner, N., Kotlarski, S., Kriegsmann, A., Martin,
E., Meijgaard, E., Moseley, C., Pfeifer, S., Preuschmann, S., Radermacher,
C., Radtke, K., Rechid, D., Rounsevell, M., P. Samuelsson, P., Somot, S.,
Soussana, J., Teichmann, C., Valentini, R., Vautard, R., Weber, B., and Yiou,
P.: EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European
impact research, Reg. Environ. Change, 14, 563–578,
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2, 2014. a, b, c, d
Jemec Auflič, M., Bokal, G., Kumelj, V., Medved, A., Dolinar, M., and
Jež, J.: Impact of climate change on landslides in Slovenia in the
mid-21st century, Geologija, 64, 159–171, https://doi.org/10.5474/geologija.2021.009,
2021. a
Kadow, C., Illing, S., Lucio-Eceiza, E. E., Bergemann, M., Ramadoss, M.,
Sommer, P. S., Kunst, O., Schartner, T., Pankatz, K., Grieger, J., Schuster,
M., Richling, A., Thiemann, H., Kirchner, I., Rust, H. W., Ludwig, T.,
Cubasch, U., and Ulbrich, U.: Introduction to Freva – A Free Evaluation
System Framework for Earth System Modeling, J. Open Res. Softw., 9, 13, https://doi.org/10.5334/jors.253, 2021. a
Kirschbaum, D., Stanley, T., and Zhou, Y.: Spatial and temporal analysis of a
global landslide catalog, Geomorphology, 249, 4–15,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.03.016, 2015. a
Klose, M., Damm, B., and Highland, L. M.: Databases in geohazard science: An
introduction, Geomorphology, 249, 1–3, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.06.029,
2015. a
Kupiainen, M., Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Jansson, C., Willén, U.,
Hansson, U., Ullerstig, A., Wang, S., and Döscher, R.: The surface
processes of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA4),
Report 157, SMHI – Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
Norrköping, Sweden,
https://www.smhi.se/en/publications/the-surface-processes-of-the-rossby-centreregional-atmospheric
(last access: 17 June 2022), 2015. a, b, c, d, e
Luque-Espinar, J. A., Mateos, R. M., García-Moreno, I., Pardo-Igúzquiza, E., and Herrera, G.: Spectral analysis of climate cycles to predict rainfall induced landslides in the western Mediterranean (Majorca, Spain), Nat. Hazards, 89, 985–1007, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3003-3, 2017. a
Mainieri, R., Eckert, N., Corona, C., Lopez-Saez, J., Stoffel, M., and Bourrier, F.: Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 47, 50–73, https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333221107624, 2022. a, b
Messeri, A., Morabito, M., Messeri, G., Brandani, G., Petralli, M., Natali, F., Grifoni, D., Crisci, A., Gensini, G., and Orlandinik, S.: Weather-Related
Flood and Landslide Damage: A Risk Index for Italian Regions, PLoS One, 10, e0144468, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144468, 2015. a
Nissen, K. M. and Ulbrich, U.: Increasing frequencies and changing
characteristics of heavy precipitation events threatening infrastructure in
Europe under climate change, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17,, 1177–1190,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-1177-2017, 2017. a, b
Paranunzio, R., Laio, F., Chiarle, M., Nigrelli, G., and Guzzetti, F.: Climate anomalies associated with the occurrence of rockfalls at high-elevation in the Italian Alps, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2085–2106, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2085-2016, 2016. a
Philipp, A., Della-Marta, P. M., Jacobeit, J., Fereday, D. R., Jones, P. D.,
Moberg, A., and Wanner, H.: Long-Term Variability of Daily North
Atlantic–European Pressure Patterns since 1850 Classified by Simulated
Annealing Clustering, J. Climate, 20, 4065–4095, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4175.1, 2007. a
Ranasinghe, R. A. C. R., Vautard, R., Arnell, N., Coppola, E., Cruz, F. A.,
Dessai, S., Islam, A. S., Rahimi, M., Ruiz Carrascal, D., Sillmann, J.,
Sylla, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Wang, W., and Zaaboul, R.: Climate Change
Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UKand New York, NY, USA, 1767–1926,
https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.014, 2021. a
Rauthe, M., Steiner, H., Riediger, U., Mazurkiewicz, A., and Gratzki, A.: A
Central European precipitation climatology – Part I: Generation and
validation of a high-resolution gridded daily data set (HYRAS), Meteorol. Z., 22, 235–256, https://doi.org/10.1127/0941-2948/2013/0436, 2013. a
Ravanel, L. and Deline, P.: Climate influence on rockfalls in high-Alpine steep rockwalls: The north side of the Aiguilles de Chamonix (Mont Blanc massif) since the end of the `Little Ice Age', Holocene, 21, 357–365,
https://doi.org/10.1177/0959683610374887, 2011. a, b, c
Ravanel, L. and Deline, P.: Rockfall Hazard in the Mont Blanc Massif Increased by the Current Atmospheric Warming, in: Volume 1, Engineering Geology for Society and Territory, 425–428, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09300-0_81, 2015. a, b, c
Rupp, S. and Damm, B.: A national rockfall dataset as a tool for analysing the spatial and temporal rockfall occurrence in Germany, Earth Surf. Proc.
Land., 45, 1528–1538, https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4827, 2020. a, b, c
Sass, O. and Oberlechner, M.: Is climate change causing increased rockfall
frequency in Austria?, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3209–3216,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3209-2012, 2012. a, b, c
Schlögl, M. and Matulla, C.: Potential future exposure of European land
transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1121–1132,
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-1121-2018, 2018. a
Selby, M. J. (Ed.): Hillslope materials and processes, Oxford University Press, New York, ISBN 9780198741831, 1993. a
Seneviratne, S. I., Zhang, X., Adnan, M., Badi, W., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca,
A., Ghosh, S., Iskandar, I., Kossin, J., Lewis, S., Otto, F., Pinto, I.,
Satoh, M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Wehner, M., and Zhou, B.: Weather and
Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1513–1766, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.013, 2021. a
Skamarock, W. C., Klemp, J. B., Dudhia, J., Gill, D., Barker, D., Duda, M. G., Huang, X., Wang, W., and Powers, J. G.: A Description of the Advanced
Research WRF Version 3, Report NCAR/TN-475+STRK, University Corporation for
Atmospheric Research, https://doi.org/10.5065/D68S4MVH, 2008. a
Stoffel, M., Tiranti, D., and Huggel, C.: Climate change impacts on mass
movements – Case studies from the European Alps, Sci. Total Environ., 493, 1255–1266, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.02.102, 2014. a, b
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012. a
Van Meijgaard, E., Van Ulft, L. H., Lenderink, G., De Roode, S. R., Wipfler, L., Boers, R., and Timmermans, R.: Refinement and application of a regional atmospheric model for climate scenario calculations of Western Europe Final Report, Report KvR 054/12, Wageningen Environmental Research, ISBN 9789088150463-44, https://library.wur.nl/WebQuery/wurpubs/427097 (last access: 17 June 2022), 2012. a, b, c, d, e, f
Varnes, D. J.: Landslides, analysis and control, in: chap. Slope Movement Types and Processes, Transportation Research Board, National Academy of
Sciences, Washington, DC, 11–33, ISBN 978-0309028042, https://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr176/176-002.pdf (last access: 27 March 2021), 1978. a, b, c
Viani, C., Chiarle, M., Paranunzio, R., Merlone, A., Musacchio, C., Coppa, G., and Nigrelli, G.: An integrated approach to investigate climate-driven
rockfall occurrence in high alpine slopes: the Bessanese glacial basin,
Western Italian Alps, J. Mt. Sci., 17, 2591–2610, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11629-020-6216-y, 2020. a
Wieczorek, G. F.: Landslides: investigation and mitigation, in: vol. Special Report 247, Transportation Research Board, Washington, DC, ISBN 030906208X,
https://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/sr/sr247/sr247.pdf (last access: 17 June 2022), 1996. a
Wilks, D. S.: Statistical Methods in Atmospheric Science, Acadamic Press,
Oxford, UK, ISBN 978-0-12-385022-5, 2011. a
Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint