Articles | Volume 23, issue 8
Research article
03 Aug 2023
Research article |  | 03 Aug 2023

A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany

Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J. Thépaut

REGNIE grids of daily precipitation DWD CDC - Climate Data Center

Model code and software

Cost733class software for classification of atmospheric circulation COST Action 733

Short summary
The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.
Final-revised paper