A decrease in rockfall probability under  climate change conditions in Germany

Nissen, Katrin M.; Wilde, Martina; Kreuzer, Thomas M.; Wohlers, Annika; Damm, Bodo; Ulbrich, Uwe

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023

Articles | Volume 23, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Past and future European atmospheric extreme events under...

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2737-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 23, issue 8

Research article

|

03 Aug 2023

Research article |

| 03 Aug 2023

A decrease in rockfall probability under climate change conditions in Germany

Katrin M. Nissen, Martina Wilde, Thomas M. Kreuzer, Annika Wohlers, Bodo Damm, and Uwe Ulbrich

Data sets

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1959 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

REGNIE grids of daily precipitation DWD CDC - Climate Data Center https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/CDC/grids_germany/daily/regnie/

Model code and software

Cost733class software for classification of atmospheric circulation COST Action 733 https://git.rz.uni-augsburg.de/philipan/cost733class-1.4

Short summary

The effect of climate change on rockfall probability in the German low mountain regions is investigated in observations and in 23 different climate scenario simulations. Under a pessimistic greenhouse gas scenario, the simulations suggest a decrease in rockfall probability. This reduction is mainly caused by a decrease in the number of freeze–thaw cycles due to higher atmospheric temperatures.