Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
NHESS
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Research article
 | 
07 Oct 2022
Research article |  | 07 Oct 2022

Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru

Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad, and Ian Main

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Latest update: 18 May 2025
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Short summary
We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
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