Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards
and Earth System Sciences
Natural Hazards
and Earth System Sciences
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Research article
07 Oct 2022
Research article | 07 Oct 2022

Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru

Kirsty Bayliss et al.

Viewed

Total article views: 1,133 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)
HTML PDF XML Total Supplement BibTeX EndNote
872 226 35 1,133 16 20 18
  • HTML: 872
  • PDF: 226
  • XML: 35
  • Total: 1,133
  • Supplement: 16
  • BibTeX: 20
  • EndNote: 18
Views and downloads (calculated since 04 Jan 2022)
Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 04 Jan 2022)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 1,133 (including HTML, PDF, and XML) Thereof 1,012 with geography defined and 121 with unknown origin.
Country # Views %
  • 1
1
 
 
 
 
Latest update: 06 Feb 2023
Download
Short summary
We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
Read more
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint