Articles | Volume 22, issue 10
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3231–3246, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3231-2022
Research article
07 Oct 2022
Research article | 07 Oct 2022

Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru

Kirsty Bayliss et al.

Data sets

Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru - data and code Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad and Ian Main https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6534724

Model code and software

Pseudo-prospective testing of 5-year earthquake forecasts for California using inlabru - data and code Kirsty Bayliss, Mark Naylor, Farnaz Kamranzad and Ian Main https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6534724

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Short summary
We develop probabilistic earthquake forecasts that include different spatial information (e.g. fault locations, strain rate) using a point process method. The performance of these models is tested over three different periods and compared with existing forecasts. We find that our models perform well, with those using simulated catalogues that make use of uncertainty in model parameters performing better, demonstrating potential to improve earthquake forecasting using Bayesian approaches.
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