Articles | Volume 21, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, 2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 861–878, 2021

Research article 05 Mar 2021

Research article | 05 Mar 2021

Simulating synthetic tropical cyclone tracks for statistically reliable wind and pressure estimations

Kees Nederhoff et al.

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Cited articles

Arthur, W. C.: A statistical-parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss. [preprint],, in review, 2019. 
Bader, D. J.: Including stochastic rainfall distributions in a probabilistic modelling approach for compound flooding due to tropical cyclones, Delft University of Technology, available at: (last access: 1 March 2018), 2019. 
Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I. D., de Moel, H., Muis, S., Haarsma, R. J., and Aerts, J. C. J. H.: Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM, Sci. Data, 7, 1–19,, 2020. 
Brzeźniak, Z. and Zastawniak, T.: Basic Stochastic Processes, Springer, London., 2000. 
Caires, S.: A Comparative Simulation Study of the Annual Maxima and the Peaks-Over-Threshold Methods, J. Offshore Mech. Arct., 138, 051601,, 2016. 
Short summary
The design of coastal protection affected by tropical cyclones is often based solely on the analysis of historical tropical cyclones (TCs). The simulation of numerous synthetic TC tracks based on historical data can overcome this limitation. In this paper, a new method for the generation of synthetic TC tracks is proposed, called the Tropical Cyclone Wind Statistical Estimation Tool (TCWiSE). TCWiSE can simulate thousands of tracks and wind fields in any oceanic basin based on any data source.
Final-revised paper