Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
Research article
 | 
10 Sep 2021
Research article |  | 10 Sep 2021

Evaluating methods for debris-flow prediction based on rainfall in an Alpine catchment

Jacob Hirschberg, Alexandre Badoux, Brian W. McArdell, Elena Leonarduzzi, and Peter Molnar

Related authors

Improving prediction of particle size with a novel acoustic bedload monitoring system consisting of phased microphone arrays and accelerometer
Zheng Chen, Siming He, Alexandre Badoux, and Dieter Rickenmann
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2525,https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2525, 2024
Short summary
Comparative Analysis of μ (I) and Voellmy-Type Grain Flow Rheologies in Geophysical Mass Flows: Insights from Theoretical and Real Case Studies
Yu Zhuang, Brian W. McArdell, and Perry Bartelt
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-87,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2024-87, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for NHESS
Short summary
Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps
Daniel Bolliger, Fritz Schlunegger, and Brian W. McArdell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1035–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024, 2024
Short summary
Green water availability and water-limited crop yields under a changing climate in Ethiopia
Mosisa Tujuba Wakjira, Nadav Peleg, Johan Six, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-37,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2024-37, 2024
Revised manuscript under review for HESS
Short summary
Simulation-Based Inference for Parameter Estimation of Complex Watershed Simulators
Robert Hull, Elena Leonarduzzi, Luis De La Fuente, Hoang Viet Tran, Andrew Bennett, Peter Melchior, Reed M. Maxwell, and Laura E. Condon
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-264,https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2023-264, 2024
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
Short summary

Related subject area

Landslides and Debris Flows Hazards
More than one landslide per road kilometer – surveying and modeling mass movements along the Rishikesh–Joshimath (NH-7) highway, Uttarakhand, India
Jürgen Mey, Ravi Kumar Guntu, Alexander Plakias, Igo Silva de Almeida, and Wolfgang Schwanghart
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 3207–3223, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3207-2024, 2024
Short summary
Temporal clustering of precipitation for detection of potential landslides
Fabiola Banfi, Emanuele Bevacqua, Pauline Rivoire, Sérgio C. Oliveira, Joaquim G. Pinto, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Carlo De Michele
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2689–2704, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Shallow-landslide stability evaluation in loess areas according to the Revised Infinite Slope Model: a case study of the 7.25 Tianshui sliding-flow landslide events of 2013 in the southwest of the Loess Plateau, China
Jianqi Zhuang, Jianbing Peng, Chenhui Du, Yi Zhu, and Jiaxu Kong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2615–2631, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2615-2024, 2024
Short summary
Probabilistic assessment of postfire debris-flow inundation in response to forecast rainfall
Alexander B. Prescott, Luke A. McGuire, Kwang-Sung Jun, Katherine R. Barnhart, and Nina S. Oakley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2359–2374, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2359-2024, 2024
Short summary
Evaluating post-wildfire debris-flow rainfall thresholds and volume models at the 2020 Grizzly Creek Fire in Glenwood Canyon, Colorado, USA
Francis K. Rengers, Samuel Bower, Andrew Knapp, Jason W. Kean, Danielle W. vonLembke, Matthew A. Thomas, Jaime Kostelnik, Katherine R. Barnhart, Matthew Bethel, Joseph E. Gartner, Madeline Hille, Dennis M. Staley, Justin K. Anderson, Elizabeth K. Roberts, Stephen B. DeLong, Belize Lane, Paxton Ridgway, and Brendan P. Murphy
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 2093–2114, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-2093-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Abancó, C., Hürlimann, M., Moya, J., and Berenguer, M.: Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of torrential flows. Results from the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees), J. Hydrol., 541, 218–229, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.019, 2016. a, b, c
Badoux, A., Graf, C., Rhyner, J., Kuntner, R., and McArdell, B. W.: A debris-flow alarm system for the Alpine Illgraben catchment: Design and performance, Nat. Hazards, 49, 517–539, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-008-9303-x, 2009. a, b, c, d
Badoux, A., Turowski, J. M., Mao, L., Mathys, N., and Rickenmann, D.: Rainfall intensity–duration thresholds for bedload transport initiation in small Alpine watersheds, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 12, 3091–3108, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3091-2012, 2012. a, b
Badoux, A., Andres, N., Techel, F., and Hegg, C.: Natural hazard fatalities in Switzerland from 1946 to 2015, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2747–2768, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-2747-2016, 2016. a
Bel, C., Liébault, F., Navratil, O., Eckert, N., Bellot, H., Fontaine, F., and Laigle, D.: Rainfall control of debris- flow triggering in the Réal Torrent, Southern French Prealps, Geomorphology, 291, 17–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.04.004, 2017. a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h, i, j
Download
Short summary
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint