Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 10 Sep 2021
| 10 Sep 2021
Evaluating methods for debris-flow prediction based on rainfall in an Alpine catchment
Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Alexandre Badoux
Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Brian W. McArdell
Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Elena Leonarduzzi
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Peter Molnar
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Short summary
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are...
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