Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2773–2789, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2773–2789, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article 10 Sep 2021
Research article | 10 Sep 2021
Evaluating methods for debris-flow prediction based on rainfall in an Alpine catchment
Jacob Hirschberg et al.
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Zheng Chen, Siming He, Tobias Nicollier, Lorenz Ammann, Alexandre Badoux, and Dieter Rickenmann
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2021-72, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2021-72, 2021
Preprint under review for ESurf
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Quantification of bedload transport constitutes a challenge in river dynamics due to variable transport modes. We used passive monitoring device to record acoustic signals generated by bedload particles moving with different transport modes and established relationship between signal and bedload characteristics. The findings in present study could improve the understanding of our monitoring system and bedload transport process, contributing to bedload size classification as well.
Georgios Maniatis, Trevor Hoey, Rebecca Hodge, Dieter Rickenmann, and Alexandre Badoux
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 1067–1099, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-1067-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-1067-2020, 2020
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One of the most interesting problems in geomorphology concerns the conditions that mobilise sediments grains in rivers. Newly developed
smartpebbles allow for the measurement of those conditions directly if a suitable framework for analysis is followed. This paper connects such a framework with the physics used to described sediment motion and presents a series of laboratory and field smart-pebble deployments. Those quantify how grain shape affects the motion of coarse sediments in rivers.
Elena Leonarduzzi, Brian W. McArdell, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-624, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2020-624, 2020
Revised manuscript accepted for HESS
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Landslides are a dangerous natural hazard affecting alpine regions, calling for effective warning systems. Here we consider different approaches for the prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at the regional scale, based on open access datasets and operational hydrological forecasting systems. We find antecedent wetness useful to improve upon the classical rainfall thresholds and the resolution of the hydrological model used for its estimate to be a critical aspect.
Marius G. Floriancic, Wouter R. Berghuijs, Tobias Jonas, James W. Kirchner, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 5423–5438, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-5423-2020, 2020
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Low river flows affect societies and ecosystems. Here we study how precipitation and potential evapotranspiration shape low flows across a network of 380 Swiss catchments. Low flows in these rivers typically result from below-average precipitation and above-average potential evapotranspiration. Extreme low flows result from long periods of the combined effects of both drivers.
Elena Leonarduzzi and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2905–2919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020, 2020
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Landslides are a natural hazard that affects alpine regions. Here we focus on rainfall-induced shallow landslides and one of the most widely used approaches for their predictions: rainfall thresholds. We design several comparisons utilizing a landslide database and rainfall records in Switzerland. We find that using daily rather than hourly rainfall might be a better option in some circumstances, and mean annual precipitation and antecedent wetness can improve predictions at the regional scale.
Giulia Battista, Peter Molnar, and Paolo Burlando
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 619–635, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-619-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-619-2020, 2020
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Suspended sediment load in rivers is highly uncertain because of spatial and temporal variability. By means of a hydrology and suspended sediment transport model, we investigated the effect of spatial variability in precipitation and surface erodibility on catchment sediment fluxes in a mesoscale river basin.
We found that sediment load depends on the spatial variability in erosion drivers, as this affects erosion rates and the location and connectivity to the channel of the erosion areas.
Tjalling de Haas, Wiebe Nijland, Brian W. McArdell, and Maurice W. M. L. Kalthof
Earth Surf. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2020-43, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2020-43, 2020
Preprint withdrawn
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High-quality digital surface models generated by automated photogrammetry techniques on aerial images captured with drones are increasingly used for topographic change detection. We demonstrate that co-aligning the images from multiple surveys strongly enhances the accuracy of topographic change detection. We find that co-alignment leads to particularly large improvements in the accuracy of poorly aligned surveys that have severe offsets when processed individually.
Nadav Peleg, Chris Skinner, Simone Fatichi, and Peter Molnar
Earth Surf. Dynam., 8, 17–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-17-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-8-17-2020, 2020
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Extreme rainfall is expected to intensify with increasing temperatures, which will likely affect rainfall spatial structure. The spatial variability of rainfall can affect streamflow and sediment transport volumes and peaks. The sensitivity of the hydro-morphological response to changes in the structure of heavy rainfall was investigated. It was found that the morphological components are more sensitive to changes in rainfall spatial structure in comparison to the hydrological components.
Virginia Ruiz-Villanueva, Alexandre Badoux, Dieter Rickenmann, Martin Böckli, Salome Schläfli, Nicolas Steeb, Markus Stoffel, and Christian Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 6, 1115–1137, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1115-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-6-1115-2018, 2018
Anna Costa, Daniela Anghileri, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 3421–3434, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3421-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-3421-2018, 2018
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We analyse the control of hydroclimatic factors – erosive rainfall, ice melt, and snowmelt – on suspended sediment concentration (SSC) of Alpine catchments regulated by hydropower, and we develop a multivariate hydroclimatic–informed rating curve. We show that while erosive rainfall determines the variability of SSC, ice melt generates the highest contribution to SSC per unit of runoff. This approach allows the exploration of climate–driven changes in fine sediment dynamics in Alpine catchments.
Anna Costa, Peter Molnar, Laura Stutenbecker, Maarten Bakker, Tiago A. Silva, Fritz Schlunegger, Stuart N. Lane, Jean-Luc Loizeau, and Stéphanie Girardclos
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 509–528, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-509-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-509-2018, 2018
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We explore the signal of a warmer climate in the suspended-sediment dynamics of a regulated and human-impacted Alpine catchment. We demonstrate that temperature-driven enhanced melting of glaciers, which occurred in the mid-1980s, played a dominant role in suspended sediment concentration rise, through increased runoff from sediment-rich proglacial areas, increased contribution of sediment-rich meltwater, and increased sediment supply in proglacial areas due to glacier recession.
Albrecht von Boetticher, Jens M. Turowski, Brian W. McArdell, Dieter Rickenmann, Marcel Hürlimann, Christian Scheidl, and James W. Kirchner
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 3963–3978, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3963-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-3963-2017, 2017
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The open-source fluid dynamic solver presented in v. Boetticher et al. (2016) combines a Coulomb viscosplastic rheological model with a Herschel–Bulkley model based on material properties for 3-D debris flow simulations. Here, we validate the solver and illustrate the model sensitivity to water content, channel curvature, content of fine material and channel bed roughness. We simulate both laboratory-scale and large-scale debris-flow experiments, using only one of the two calibration parameters.
Anna Costa, Daniela Anghileri, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-419, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2017-419, 2017
Manuscript not accepted for further review
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We develop a novel rating curve to simulate suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in Alpine catchments (Process-Based Rating Curve, PBRC). Instead of relating SSC to discharge, as in traditional approaches, we model SSC by differentiating the potential contributions of the main erosional and transport processes of Alpine environments: erosive rainfall, snowmelt, and icemelt. We show that PBRC significantly improves predictions of SSC, especially when analysing climate-induced changes.
Fabian Walter, Arnaud Burtin, Brian W. McArdell, Niels Hovius, Bianca Weder, and Jens M. Turowski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 939–955, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-939-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-939-2017, 2017
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Debris flows are naturally occuring mass motion events, which mobilize loose material in steep Alpine torrents. The destructive potential of debris flows is well known and demands early warning. Here we apply the amplitude source location (ASL) method to seismic ground vibrations induced by a debris flow event in Switzerland. The method efficiently detects the initiation of the event and traces its front propagation down the torrent channel.
Florian Frank, Brian W. McArdell, Nicole Oggier, Patrick Baer, Marc Christen, and Andreas Vieli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 801–815, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-801-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-801-2017, 2017
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This study describes a sensitivity analysis of the RAMMS debris-flow entrainment model, which is intended to help solve problems related to predicting the runout of debris flows. The results indicate that the entrainment model predicts plausible erosion volumes in comparison with field data. These eroded volumes are sensitive to the initial landslide volume, suggesting that this tool may be useful for both reconstruction of historical events and modeling of debris flow scenarios.
Nadav Peleg, Frank Blumensaat, Peter Molnar, Simone Fatichi, and Paolo Burlando
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1559–1572, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1559-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1559-2017, 2017
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We investigated the relative contribution of the spatial versus climatic rainfall variability for flow peaks by applying an advanced stochastic rainfall generator to simulate rainfall for a small urban catchment and simulate flow dynamics in the sewer system. We found that the main contribution to the total flow variability originates from the natural climate variability. The contribution of spatial rainfall variability to the total flow variability was found to increase with return periods.
Søren Thorndahl, Thomas Einfalt, Patrick Willems, Jesper Ellerbæk Nielsen, Marie-Claire ten Veldhuis, Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Michael R. Rasmussen, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1359–1380, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1359-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-21-1359-2017, 2017
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This paper reviews how weather radar data can be used in urban hydrological applications. It focuses on three areas of research: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data, (2) rainfall estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Moreover, the paper provides examples of urban hydrological applications which can benefit from radar rainfall data in comparison to tradition rain gauge measurements of rainfall.
Claudio I. Meier, Jorge Sebastián Moraga, Geri Pranzini, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 4177–4190, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-4177-2016, 2016
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We show that the derived distribution approach is able to characterize the interannual variability of precipitation much better than fitting a probabilistic model to annual rainfall totals, as long as continuously gauged data are available. The method is a useful tool for describing temporal changes in the distribution of annual rainfall, as it works for records as short as 5 years, and therefore does not require any stationarity assumption over long periods.
Bahareh Kianfar, Simone Fatichi, Athansios Paschalis, Max Maurer, and Peter Molnar
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-536, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-536, 2016
Revised manuscript has not been submitted
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Raingauge observations show a large variability in extreme rainfall depths in the current climate. Climate model predictions of extreme rainfall in the future have to be compared with this natural variability. Our work shows that predictions of future extreme rainfall often lie within the range of natural variability of present-day climate, and therefore predictions of change are highly uncertain. We demonstrate this by using stochastic rainfall models and 10-min rainfall data in Switzerland.
Albrecht von Boetticher, Jens M. Turowski, Brian W. McArdell, Dieter Rickenmann, and James W. Kirchner
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2909–2923, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2909-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2909-2016, 2016
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Debris flows are characterized by unsteady flows of water with different content of clay, silt, sand, gravel, and large particles, resulting in a dense moving mixture mass. Here we present a three-dimensional fluid dynamic solver that simulates the flow as a mixture of a pressure-dependent rheology model of the gravel mixed with a Herschel–Bulkley rheology of the fine material suspension. We link rheological parameters to the material composition. The user must specify two free model parameters.
Matteo Saletti, Peter Molnar, Marwan A. Hassan, and Paolo Burlando
Earth Surf. Dynam., 4, 549–566, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-549-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-4-549-2016, 2016
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This study presents a new reduced-complexity model with few parameters linked to basic physical processes, which aims to reproduce the transport of sediment as bed load and the formation and stability of channel morphology in steep mountain streams. The model is able to simulate the formation and stability of steps, bed structures commonly encountered in steep channels, by assuming that their formation is due to intense sediment transport during high flows causing jamming of particles.
F. Frank, B. W. McArdell, C. Huggel, and A. Vieli
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2569–2583, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2569-2015, 2015
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The sudden onset of large and erosive debris flows has been observed recently in different catchments in Switzerland, implicating the importance of erosion for debris flow modelling. Therefore, an erosion model was established based on field data (relationship between maximum shear stress and erosion depth and rate) of several debris flows measured at the Illgraben. Erosion model tests at the Spreitgraben showed considerable improvements in runout pattern as well as hydrograph propagation.
J. C. Peña, L. Schulte, A. Badoux, M. Barriendos, and A. Barrera-Escoda
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 3807–3827, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-3807-2015, 2015
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The paper presents an index of summer flood damage in Switzerland from 1800 to 2009 and explores the influence of solar forcing, climate variability and low-frequency atmospheric circulation on flood frequencies. The flood damage index provides evidence that the 1817-1851, 1881-1927, 1977-1990 and 2005-present flood clusters are mostly in phase with palaeoclimate proxies and solar activity minima. Floods are influenced by atmospheric instability related to the principal summer mode.
A. von Boetticher, J. M. Turowski, B. W. McArdell, D. Rickenmann, M. Hürlimann, C. Scheidl, and J. W. Kirchner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-6379-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-8-6379-2015, 2015
Preprint withdrawn
M. Jochner, J. M. Turowski, A. Badoux, M. Stoffel, and C. Rickli
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 311–320, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-311-2015, 2015
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The export of coarse particulate organic matter (CPOM) from mountain catchments seems to be strongly linked to rising discharge, but the mechanism leading to this is unclear. We show that log jams in a steep headwater stream are an effective barrier for CPOM export. Exceptional discharge events play a dual role: First, they destroy existing jams, releasing stored material. Second, they intensify channel--hillslope coupling, thereby recruiting logs to the channel, around which new jams can form.
K. Schraml, B. Thomschitz, B. W. McArdell, C. Graf, and R. Kaitna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1483–1492, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1483-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-1483-2015, 2015
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In this paper we used two different numerical simulation models to replicate two debris-flow events in Austria and compare the range and sensitivity of the model input parameters. We expect that our results contribute to a better application of simulation models for hazard and risk assessment in alpine regions.
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, G. T. Aronica, A. Bilibashi, M. Boháč, O. Bonacci, M. Borga, P. Burlando, A. Castellarin, G. B. Chirico, P. Claps, K. Fiala, L. Gaál, L. Gorbachova, A. Gül, J. Hannaford, A. Kiss, T. Kjeldsen, S. Kohnová, J. J. Koskela, N. Macdonald, M. Mavrova-Guirguinova, O. Ledvinka, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, M. Osuch, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, I. Radevski, B. Renard, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, M. Šraj, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, E. Volpi, D. Wilson, K. Zaimi, and G. Blöschl
Proc. IAHS, 370, 89–95, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-89-2015, 2015
M. Stähli, M. Sättele, C. Huggel, B. W. McArdell, P. Lehmann, A. Van Herwijnen, A. Berne, M. Schleiss, A. Ferrari, A. Kos, D. Or, and S. M. Springman
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 905–917, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-905-2015, 2015
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This review paper describes the state of the art in monitoring and predicting rapid mass movements for early warning. It further presents recent innovations in observation technologies and modelling to be used in future early warning systems (EWS). Finally, the paper proposes avenues towards successful implementation of next-generation EWS.
P. Molnar, S. Fatichi, L. Gaál, J. Szolgay, and P. Burlando
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 1753–1766, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1753-2015, 2015
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We present an empirical study of the rates of increase in precipitation intensity with air temperature using high-resolution 10 min precipitation records in Switzerland. We estimated the scaling rates for lightning (convective) and non-lightning event subsets and show that scaling rates are between 7 and 14%/C for convective rain and that mixing of storm types exaggerates the relations to air temperature. Doubled CC rates reported by other studies are an exception in our data set.
K. Džubáková, P. Molnar, K. Schindler, and M. Trizna
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 195–208, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-195-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-195-2015, 2015
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We use a high-resolution ground-based camera system with near-infrared sensitivity to quantify the response of riparian vegetation in an Alpine river to floods with the use of vegetation indices. The vegetation showed both damage and enhancement within 1 week following floods, with a selective impact determined by pre-flood vegetation vigour, morphological setting and intensity of flood forcing. The tested vegetation indices differed in the direction of predicted change in the range 0.7-35.8%.
F. U. M. Heimann, D. Rickenmann, M. Böckli, A. Badoux, J. M. Turowski, and J. W. Kirchner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 3, 35–54, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-35-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-3-35-2015, 2015
J. Hall, B. Arheimer, M. Borga, R. Brázdil, P. Claps, A. Kiss, T. R. Kjeldsen, J. Kriaučiūnienė, Z. W. Kundzewicz, M. Lang, M. C. Llasat, N. Macdonald, N. McIntyre, L. Mediero, B. Merz, R. Merz, P. Molnar, A. Montanari, C. Neuhold, J. Parajka, R. A. P. Perdigão, L. Plavcová, M. Rogger, J. L. Salinas, E. Sauquet, C. Schär, J. Szolgay, A. Viglione, and G. Blöschl
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2735–2772, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-2735-2014, 2014
L. Gaál, P. Molnar, and J. Szolgay
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 1561–1573, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1561-2014, 2014
A. Burtin, N. Hovius, B. W. McArdell, J. M. Turowski, and J. Vergne
Earth Surf. Dynam., 2, 21–33, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-21-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-2-21-2014, 2014
J. M. Turowski, A. Badoux, K. Bunte, C. Rickli, N. Federspiel, and M. Jochner
Earth Surf. Dynam., 1, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-1-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-1-1-2013, 2013
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Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 3015–3029, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-3015-2021, 2021
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Links between debris flow and volcanic evolution are an open question in the southern Andes. We modelled the catastrophic debris flow using field data, a geotechnical approach and numerical modelling of the Petrohué event (Chile, 2017). Our results indicated new debris-flow-prone zones. Finally, we propose considering connections between volcanoes and debris flow in the southern Andes.
Katy Burrows, David Milledge, Richard J. Walters, and Dino Bellugi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2993–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2993-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2993-2021, 2021
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When cloud cover obscures optical satellite imagery, there are two options remaining for generating information on earthquake-triggered landslide locations: (1) models which predict landslide locations based on, e.g., slope and ground shaking data and (2) satellite radar data, which penetrates cloud cover and is sensitive to landslides. Here we show that the two approaches can be combined to give a more consistent and more accurate model of landslide locations after an earthquake.
Jason Goetz, Robin Kohrs, Eric Parra Hormazábal, Manuel Bustos Morales, María Belén Araneda Riquelme, Cristián Henríquez, and Alexander Brenning
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2543–2562, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2543-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2543-2021, 2021
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Debris flows are fast-moving landslides that can cause incredible destruction to lives and property. Using the Andes of Santiago as an example, we developed tools to finetune and validate models predicting likely runout paths over large regions. We anticipate that our automated approach that links the open-source R software with SAGA-GIS will make debris-flow runout simulation more readily accessible and thus enable researchers and spatial planners to improve regional-scale hazard assessments.
Christian Zangerl, Annemarie Schneeberger, Georg Steiner, and Martin Mergili
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2461–2483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2461-2021, 2021
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The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid rockslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps and was formed in the early Holocene. Although many hypotheses for the conditioning and triggering factors were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically accepted explanatory model has been found. This study provides new data and numerical modelling results to better understand the cause and triggering factors of this gigantic natural event.
Nan Wang, Luigi Lombardo, Marj Tonini, Weiming Cheng, Liang Guo, and Junnan Xiong
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2109–2124, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2109-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2109-2021, 2021
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This study exploits 66 years of flash flood disasters across China.
The conclusions are as follows. The clustering procedure highlights distinct spatial and temporal patterns of flash flood disasters at different scales. There are distinguished seasonal, yearly and even long-term persistent flash flood behaviors of flash flood disasters. Finally, the decreased duration of clusters in the recent period indicates a possible activation induced by short-duration extreme rainfall events.
Xun Wang, Marco Otto, and Dieter Scherer
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2125–2144, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2125-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2125-2021, 2021
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We applied a high-resolution, gridded atmospheric data set combined with landslide inventories to investigate the atmospheric triggers, define triggering thresholds, and characterize the climatic disposition of landslides in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Our results indicate the crucial role of snowmelt in landslide triggering and prediction in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, as well as the added value of climatic disposition derived from atmospheric triggering conditions.
Andrea Abbate, Monica Papini, and Laura Longoni
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2041–2058, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2041-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2041-2021, 2021
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In this paper the relation between the intensity of meteorological events and the magnitude of triggered geo-hydrological issues was examined. A back analysis was developed across a region of the central Alps. The meteorological triggers were interpreted using two approaches: the first using local rain gauge data and a new one considering meteorological reanalysis maps. The results obtained were compared and elaborated for defining a magnitude of each geo-hydrological event.
Lauren Zweifel, Maxim Samarin, Katrin Meusburger, and Christine Alewell
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-198, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-198, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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Mountainous grassland areas can be severely affected by soil erosion, such as by shallow landslides. With an automated mapping approach we are able to locate shallow landslide sites on aerial images for 10 different study sites across Swiss mountain regions covering a total of 315 km2. Using a statistical model we identify important explanatory variables for shallow landslide occurrence for the individual sites as well as across all regions, which highlight slope, aspect and terrain roughness.
Isidro Cantarino, Miguel Angel Carrion, Jose Sergio Palencia-Jimenez, and Víctor Martínez-Ibáñez
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1847–1866, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1847-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1847-2021, 2021
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Risk ratio (RR), developed in this paper, stands out as a robust indicator for finding the relationship between residential construction and its associated landslide risk. It proved especially useful for municipalities on the Mediterranean coast, since it differentiates between those that take on a higher risk and those that do not. Our research establishes valuable criteria to find how suitable a specific local entity's risk management is and explore what causes the incidence of landslide risk.
Marta Martinengo, Daniel Zugliani, and Giorgio Rosatti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1769–1784, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1769-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1769-2021, 2021
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Rainfall thresholds are relations between rainfall intensity and duration on which the forecast of the possible occurrence of a debris flow can be based. To check the robustness of a physically based stony debris flow rainfall threshold, in this work we developed a procedure to estimate the effects of various sources of error on the determination of the threshold parameters. Results show that these effects are limited and therefore show the good robustness of the threshold estimate.
Anne-Laure Argentin, Jörg Robl, Günther Prasicek, Stefan Hergarten, Daniel Hölbling, Lorena Abad, and Zahra Dabiri
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1615–1637, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1615-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1615-2021, 2021
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This study relies on topography to simulate the origin and displacement of potentially river-blocking landslides. It highlights a continuous range of simulated landslide dams that go unnoticed in the field due to their small scale. The computation results show that landslide-dammed lake volume can be estimated from upstream drainage area and landslide volume, thus enabling an efficient hazard assessment of possible landslide-dammed lake volume – and flooding magnitude in case of dam failure.
Clàudia Abancó, Georgina L. Bennett, Adrian J. Matthews, Mark Anthony M. Matera, and Fibor J. Tan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1531–1550, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1531-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1531-2021, 2021
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In 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut triggered thousands of landslides in the Itogon region (Philippines). An inventory of 1101 landslides revealed that landslides mostly occurred in slopes covered by wooded grassland in clayey materials, predominantly facing E-SE. Satellite rainfall and soil moisture data associated with Typhoon Mangkhut and the previous months in 2018 were analyzed. Results showed that landslides occurred during high-intensity rainfall that coincided with the highest soil moisture values.
Fausto Guzzetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1467–1471, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1467-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1467-2021, 2021
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This is a perspective based on personal experience on whether a large number of landslides caused by a single trigger (e.g. an earthquake, an intense rainfall, a rapid snowmelt event) or by multiple triggers in a period can be predicted, in space and time, considering the consequences of slope failures.
Silvan Leinss, Enrico Bernardini, Mylène Jacquemart, and Mikhail Dokukin
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1409–1429, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1409-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1409-2021, 2021
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A cluster of 13 large mass flow events including five detachments of entire valley glaciers was observed in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan, in 1973–2019. The local clustering provides additional understanding of the influence of temperature, seismic activity, and geology. Most events occurred in summer of years with mean annual air temperatures higher than the past 46-year trend. The glaciers rest on weak bedrock and are rather short, making them sensitive to friction loss due to meltwater.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Donghe Ma, and Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1247–1262, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1247-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1247-2021, 2021
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In previous studies of landslide susceptibility mapping, one inventory is for one kind of landslide. However, this causes some problems for prevention and management. This study aims to map two kinds of landslides and use the results on the same map to explore the potential relationship. Through superimposition of two zoning maps, this provides a new way to evaluate the disaster chain and provides a valuable reference for land use planners.
Adeline Delonca, Yann Gunzburger, and Thierry Verdel
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1263–1278, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1263-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1263-2021, 2021
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Rockfalls are a major sources of danger, particularly along transportation routes. Thus, the assessment of their occurrence is a major challenge for risk management. One interesting factor involved in the occurrence of an event is the failure mechanism of rock bridges along the potential failure plane. This work proposes to study the phenomenology of this failure considering numerical modelling. The influence of rock bridge position in regard to the rockfall failure mode is highlighted.
Richard Guthrie and Andrew Befus
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 1029–1049, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1029-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1029-2021, 2021
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In order to address a need for a debris flow or debris avalanche model that can be applied regionally with relatively few inputs, we developed and present herein an agent-based landslide-simulation model called DebrisFlow Predictor. DebrisFlow Predictor is a fully predictive, probabilistic debris flow runout model. It produces realistic results and can be applied easily to entire regions. We hope that the model will provide useful insight into hazard and risk assessments where it is applicable.
Mylène Jacquemart and Kristy Tiampo
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 629–642, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-629-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-629-2021, 2021
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We used interferometric radar coherence – a data quality indicator typically used to assess the reliability of radar interferometry data – to document the destabilization of the Mud Creek landslide in California, 5 months prior to its catastrophic failure. We calculated a time series of coherence on the slide relative to the surrounding hillslope and suggest that this easy-to-compute metric might be useful for assessing the stability of a hillslope.
Zongxing Zou, Huiming Tang, Robert E. Criss, Xinli Hu, Chengren Xiong, Qiong Wu, and Yi Yuan
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 517–532, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-517-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-517-2021, 2021
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The evolutionary trend of deforming landslides and feasible treatments for huge reservoir landslides needs further study. A geomechanical model is presented to elucidate the deformation mechanism of reservoir landslides. The deformation process of Shuping landslide is well interpreted by the geomechanical model. A successful engineering treatment is applied in treating the Shuping landslide, providing references for treating other huge landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.
Sansar Raj Meena, Florian Albrecht, Daniel Hölbling, Omid Ghorbanzadeh, and Thomas Blaschke
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 301–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-301-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-301-2021, 2021
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Comprehensive and sustainable landslide management, including identification of landslide-susceptible areas, requires a lot of organisations and people to collaborate efficiently. In this study, we propose a concept for a system that provides users with a platform to share the location of landslide events for further collaboration in Nepal. The system can be beneficial for specifying potentially risky regions and consequently, the development of risk mitigation strategies at the local level.
Séverine Bernardie, Rosalie Vandromme, Yannick Thiery, Thomas Houet, Marine Grémont, Florian Masson, Gilles Grandjean, and Isabelle Bouroullec
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 147–169, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-147-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-147-2021, 2021
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The present study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate change, based on scenarios, on landslide hazards in a Pyrenean valley from the present to 2100.
The results demonstrate the influence of land cover on slope stability through the presence and type of forest. Climate change may have a significant impact because of the increase of the soil water content. The results indicate that the occurrence of landslide hazards in the future is expected to increase.
Karel Martínek, Kryštof Verner, Tomáš Hroch, Leta A. Megerssa, Veronika Kopačková, David Buriánek, Ameha Muluneh, Radka Kalinová, Miheret Yakob, and Muluken Kassa
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-420, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2020-420, 2021
Revised manuscript accepted for NHESS
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This study combines field geological and geohazard mapping with remote sensing data. Geostatistical analysis evaluated precipitation, landuse, vegetation density, rock mass strength and tectonics. Contrasting tectonic and climatic setting of the Main Ethiopian Rift and uplifted Ethiopian Plateau have major impact on the distribution of landslides.
Lorenzo Marchi, Federico Cazorzi, Massimo Arattano, Sara Cucchiaro, Marco Cavalli, and Stefano Crema
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 87–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-87-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-87-2021, 2021
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Debris-flow research requires experimental data that are difficult to collect because of the intrinsic characteristics of these hazardous processes. This paper presents debris-flow data recorded in the Moscardo Torrent (Italian Alps) between 1990 and 2019. In this time interval, 30 debris flows were observed. The paper presents data on triggering rainfall, flow velocity, peak discharge, and volume for the monitored hydrographs.
J. Bastian Dost, Oliver Gronz, Markus C. Casper, and Andreas Krein
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3501–3519, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3501-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3501-2020, 2020
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We show the potential to observe the unconfined internal-motion behaviour of single clasts in landslides using a wireless sensor measuring acceleration and rotation. The probe's dimensions are 10 mm × 55 mm. It measures up to 16 g and 2000° s−1 with a 100 Hz sampling rate. From the data, we derive transport mode, velocity, displacement and 3D trajectories of several probes. Results are verified by high-speed image analysis and laser distance measurements.
Gioachino Roberti, Jacob McGregor, Sharon Lam, David Bigelow, Blake Boyko, Chris Ahern, Victoria Wang, Bryan Barnhart, Clinton Smyth, David Poole, and Stephen Richard
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3455–3483, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3455-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3455-2020, 2020
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We show how INSPIRE, the European initiative to standardize data across borders, can be used to produce explainable AI-based applications. We do so by producing landslide susceptibility maps for the Veneto region in Italy. EU countries are mandated by law to implement the INSPIRE data framework by 2021, but they are aligning and serving INSPIRE data at a slow pace. Our paper can provide a boost to INSPIRE implementation as it shows the value of standardized data.
Robert Emberson, Dalia Kirschbaum, and Thomas Stanley
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3413–3424, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3413-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3413-2020, 2020
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Landslides cause thousands of fatalities and cost billions of dollars of damage worldwide every year, but different inventories of landslide events can have widely diverging completeness. This can lead to spatial biases in our understanding of the impacts. Here we use a globally homogeneous model of landslide hazard and exposure to provide consistent estimates of where landslides are most likely to cause damage to people, roads and other critical infrastructure at 1 km resolution.
Thierry Oppikofer, Reginald L. Hermanns, Vegard U. Jakobsen, Martina Böhme, Pierrick Nicolet, and Ivanna Penna
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3179–3196, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3179-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3179-2020, 2020
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Damming of rivers is an important secondary effect of landslides due to upstream flooding and possible outburst floods in case of dam failure. For preliminary regional hazard and risk assessment of dams formed by rock slope failures in Norway, we developed semi-empirical relationships to assess the height and stability of dams based on an inventory of 69 dams formed by rock slope failures in southwestern Norway and published landslide dam inventories from other parts of the world.
Wentao Yang, Lianyou Liu, and Peijun Shi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3215–3224, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3215-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3215-2020, 2020
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We analysed deformation of a moving slope along the Jinsha River from November 2015 to November 2019. The slope is 80 km downstream from the famous Baige landslide, which caused two mega floods affecting downstream communities. This slope was relatively stable for the first 3 years (2015–2018) but moved significantly in the last year (2018–2019). The deformation is linked to seasonal precipitation. If this slope continues to slide downwards, it may have similar impacts to the Baige landslide.
Katy Burrows, Richard J. Walters, David Milledge, and Alexander L. Densmore
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3197–3214, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020, 2020
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Satellite radar could provide information on landslide locations within days of an earthquake or rainfall event anywhere on Earth, but until now there has been a lack of systematic testing of possible radar methods, and most methods have been demonstrated using a single case study event and data from a single satellite sensor. Here we test five methods on four events, demonstrating their wide applicability and making recommendations on when different methods should be applied in the future.
Elisa Bozzolan, Elizabeth Holcombe, Francesca Pianosi, and Thorsten Wagener
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 3161–3177, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3161-2020, 2020
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We include informal housing in slope stability analysis, considering different slope properties and precipitation events (including climate change). The dominant failure processes are identified, and their relative role in slope failure is quantified. A new rainfall threshold is assessed for urbanised slopes. Instability
rulesare provided to recognise urbanised slopes most at risk. The methodology is suitable for regions with scarce field measurements and landslide inventories.
Wen Zhang, Jia Wang, Peihua Xu, Junqing Lou, Bo Shan, Fengyan Wang, Chen Cao, Xiaoxue Chen, and Jinsheng Que
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2921–2935, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2921-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2921-2020, 2020
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Slope failure is extremely common in mountainous areas. Therefore, the stability and potential failure of slopes must be analysed accurately. For most fractured rock slopes, the aforementioned analyses are considerably challenging. This study aims to propose a comprehensive approach that combines three well-established methods to conduct the aformentioned analyses. Finally, the critical slip surface, factor of safety, and accumulation distance are selected for safety assurance in slope analysis.
Elena Leonarduzzi and Peter Molnar
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2905–2919, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2905-2020, 2020
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Landslides are a natural hazard that affects alpine regions. Here we focus on rainfall-induced shallow landslides and one of the most widely used approaches for their predictions: rainfall thresholds. We design several comparisons utilizing a landslide database and rainfall records in Switzerland. We find that using daily rather than hourly rainfall might be a better option in some circumstances, and mean annual precipitation and antecedent wetness can improve predictions at the regional scale.
Baoqin Lian, Xingang Wang, Jianbing Peng, and Qiangbing Huang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2843–2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2843-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2843-2020, 2020
Qin Chen, Lixia Chen, Lei Gui, Kunlong Yin, Dhruba Pikha Shrestha, Juan Du, and Xuelian Cao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2547–2565, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2547-2020, 2020
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Previous studies have focused on generalized vulnerability assessment from landslides or other types of slope failures, such as debris flow and rockfall. The proposed study establishes a three-step approach to investigate the physical vulnerability of buildings affected by slow-moving landslides. Herein, good consistency between the estimated building physical vulnerability and in-field damage evidence was found.
Marcelo A. Somos-Valenzuela, Joaquín E. Oyarzún-Ulloa, Ivo J. Fustos-Toribio, Natalia Garrido-Urzua, and Ningsheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2319–2333, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2319-2020, 2020
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This work presents a study of the biggest mudflow event in 20 years in Chilean Patagonia, which resulted from an avalanche in the Cordon Yelcho. We integrate in situ geotechnical tests and numerical modeling to model the Villa Santa Lucía mudflow event. Our results suggest that the initial soil water content is sufficient to transform the landslide and scoured soil into a mudflow. Therefore, knowing the soil characteristics is crucial to evaluating the impact of landslides in the study area.
Massimo Melillo, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Silvia Peruccacci, Roberto Sarro, Rosa Marìa Mateos, and Maria Teresa Brunetti
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2307–2317, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2307-2020, 2020
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In the Canary Islands, a link between rainfall and rockfall occurrence is found for most of the year, except for the warm season. Empirical rainfall thresholds for rockfalls are first proposed for Gran Canaria and Tenerife, and the dependence of the thresholds on the mean annual rainfall is discussed. The use of thresholds in early-warning systems might contribute to the mitigation of the rockfall hazard in the archipelago and reduce the associated risk.
Sandro Rossato, Susan Ivy-Ochs, Silvana Martin, Alfio Viganò, Christof Vockenhuber, Manuel Rigo, Giovanni Monegato, Marco De Zorzi, Nicola Surian, Paolo Campedel, and Paolo Mozzi
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2157–2174, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2157-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-2157-2020, 2020
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Rock avalanches are extremely dangerous, causing much damage worldwide. The
Masiere di Vedanais a rock avalanche deposit (9 km2, 170 Mm3) in NE Italy. We dated it back to late Roman to early Middle Ages. Identified drivers are the overall structural setting, exceptional rainfall events and seismic shakings. No exceptional event is required as a trigger. When dealing with heavily deformed bedrocks, especially in inhabited areas, the occurrence of a huge event like this must be considered.
Gerardo Zegers, Pablo A. Mendoza, Alex Garces, and Santiago Montserrat
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1919–1930, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1919-2020, 2020
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We perform a sensitivity analysis on the parameters of a numerical debris flow model and examine the effects of using post-event measurements on two creeks in Chile. Our results demonstrate the utility of sensitivity analysis in debris flow modeling and the benefits of post-event observations on parameter identifiability. This study provides guidance on the choice of uncertain parameters, contributing to more reliable simulations for debris flow risk assessments and land use planning.
Meng Lu, Jie Zhang, Lulu Zhang, and Limin Zhang
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1833–1846, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1833-2020, 2020
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When analyzing the risk of landslides hitting moving vehicles, the spacing between vehicles and the vehicle types on the highway can be highly uncertain. Using a highway slope case study in Hong Kong, this paper presents a method to assess the risk of moving vehicles being hit by a rainfall-induced landslide; the method allows for the investigation of the possible number of different types of vehicles hit by the landslide and provides a new guideline for highway slope design.
Hu Zhao and Julia Kowalski
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1441–1461, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1441-2020, 2020
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We study the impact of topographic uncertainty on landslide run-out modeling using conditional and unconditional stochastic simulation. First, we propose a generic workflow and then apply it to a historic flow-like landslide. We find that topographic uncertainty can greatly affect landslide run-out modeling, depending on how well the underlying flow path is captured by topographic data. The difference between unconditional and conditional stochastic simulation is discussed in detail.
Iván Vergara, Stella M. Moreiras, Diego Araneo, and René Garreaud
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1353–1367, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1353-2020, 2020
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Geo-climatic hazards usually cause large losses of human life and economic losses. As they are very susceptible to weather, in many regions of the world these hazards are changing in frequency and magnitude due to current climate change. The purpose of this paper is to understand if, in the subtropical Andes of Argentina, these phenomena are increasing or decreasing and subsequently to understand the causes of these possible changes.
Feng Ji, Zili Dai, and Renjie Li
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1321–1334, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1321-2020, 2020
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Southwest China is a severe disaster zone in terms of debris flow. To analyze the susceptibility to debris flows in this area, this study evaluates 70 typical debris flow gullies as statistical samples and proposes an empirical model based on quantification theory. A total of 10 debris flow gullies on the upstream of the Dadu River are analyzed to verify the reliability of the proposed model. The results show that the accuracy of the statistical model is 90 %.
Yimin Liu, Chenghu Wang, Guiyun Gao, Pu Wang, Zhengyang Hou, and Qisong Jiao
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1305–1319, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1305-2020, 2020
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We considered a translational landslide exhibiting an unusual morphology, i.e., the Wobaoshi landslide. The deformation and failure mode of the plate-shaped bodies were analyzed and investigated based on numerical simulations and calculations. The monitoring data and geomechanical model proved that the accumulated water pressure in cracks causes the plate-shaped bodies to creep. Therefore, these research findings are of reference significance for the
rainfall-induced translational landslides.
Zhu Liang, Changming Wang, Songling Han, Kaleem Ullah Jan Khan, and Yiao Liu
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1287–1304, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1287-2020, 2020
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The present study built a semi-quantitative classification and susceptibility assessment method for a study area, combining multiple mathematical methods and 3S technologies. The results have been verified with field investigation and other evaluation methods. Different methods have their own advantages and disadvantages, and some methods are complementary to a certain extent, so it is desirable to enhance the rationality of the application through the combination of multiple methods.
Germán Aguilar, Albert Cabré, Victor Fredes, and Bruno Villela
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 1247–1265, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1247-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-1247-2020, 2020
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We have calculated erosion caused by an extreme storm in the Atacama Desert. Erosion distribution depends on the ability of catchments to store sediments in stream networks between storms and generate debris flows during the storm. The order of magnitude of erosion is the same as the erosion rates calculated over the long term, so these storms have a relevant influence on the evolution of these arid fluvial systems.
Johnnatan Palacio Cordoba, Martin Mergili, and Edier Aristizábal
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 815–829, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-815-2020, 2020
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Landslides triggered by rainfall are very common phenomena in complex tropical environments such as the Colombian Andes. In this work, we perform probabilistic analyses with r.slope.stability for landslide susceptibility analysis. We test the model in the La Arenosa catchment, northern Colombian Andes. The results are compared to those yielded with the corresponding deterministic analyses and with other physically based models applied in the same catchment.
Dayu Yu, Liyu Tang, and Chongcheng Chen
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 727–741, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-727-2020, 2020
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In recent years, dam-break accidents in tailing ponds have happened frequently, which has resulted in verified loss of life and ecological disaster. Simulation of a tailing dam accident in advance is useful for understanding the tailing flow characteristics and assessing the possible extension of the impact area. In this paper, a 3-D CFD approach was proposed for reasonably and quickly predicting the flow routing and impact area of mud flow from a dam failure across 3-D terrain.
Mingdong Zang, Shengwen Qi, Yu Zou, Zhuping Sheng, and Blanca S. Zamora
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 713–726, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-713-2020, 2020
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Coseismic landslides often cause loss of life and property damage. Accurately mapping hazards is very important and challenging work. This paper considers the roughness and size effect of the potential sliding surface unloading joint and then presents an improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides. The approach is verified using the Mw 6.1 Ludian earthquake in 2014 and compared with a conventional Newmark analysis using area under the curve analysis.
Sheng Fu, Lixia Chen, Tsehaie Woldai, Kunlong Yin, Lei Gui, Deying Li, Juan Du, Chao Zhou, Yong Xu, and Zhipeng Lian
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 581–601, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-581-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-581-2020, 2020
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In this study, we conducted a more detailed semiquantitative landslide risk assessment at a community level and scale of 1 : 10 000. In this manner, the case study computed the loss of lives and properties for each slope. The proposed procedure proved to be more useful in complementing risk assessment on the small scale of 100 000 in western Hubei, China.
Martin Mergili, Michel Jaboyedoff, José Pullarello, and Shiva P. Pudasaini
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 505–520, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-505-2020, 2020
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Computer simulations of complex landslide processes in mountain areas are important for informing risk management but are at the same time challenging in terms of parameterization and physical and numerical model implementation. Using the tool r.avaflow, we highlight the progress and the challenges with regard to such simulations on the example of the Piz Cengalo–Bondo landslide cascade in Switzerland, which started as an initial rockslide–rockfall and finally evolved into a debris flow.
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Short summary
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are...
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