Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2773–2789, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2773–2789, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021

Research article 10 Sep 2021

Research article | 10 Sep 2021

Evaluating methods for debris-flow prediction based on rainfall in an Alpine catchment

Jacob Hirschberg et al.

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Latest update: 18 Oct 2021
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Short summary
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
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