Articles | Volume 21, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
10 Sep 2021
Research article |
| 10 Sep 2021
| 10 Sep 2021
Evaluating methods for debris-flow prediction based on rainfall in an Alpine catchment
Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Alexandre Badoux
Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Brian W. McArdell
Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Elena Leonarduzzi
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Mountain Hydrology and Mass Movements, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Peter Molnar
Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing the informativeness of a coupled surface–subsurface watershed model for understanding debris flow: a hydrological perspective H. Wang et al. 10.1080/02626667.2024.2362303
- Flow and Bed Conditions Jointly Control Debris‐Flow Erosion and Bulking T. de Haas et al. 10.1029/2021GL097611
- Investigation of different lahar types with rainfall intensity duration curves in Arimura river basin of Sakurajima volcano T. ERSÖZ & Y. GONDA 10.13101/ijece.17.1
- Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China H. Yang et al. 10.1007/s11629-023-8507-6
- Rock slope failure preparation paced by total crack boundary length S. Lagarde et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00851-0
- Debris flow and debris flood hazard assessment in mountain catchments T. Baggio et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2024.108338
- A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence Z. Wei et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024
- Numerical Investigation of Sediment‐Yield Underestimation in Supply‐Limited Mountain Basins With Short Records J. Hirschberg et al. 10.1029/2021GL096440
- Extracting more features from rainfall data to analyze the conditions triggering debris flows Y. Zhao et al. 10.1007/s10346-022-01893-9
- Investigation of the functional relationship between antecedent rainfall and the probability of debris flow occurrence in Jiangjia Gully, China S. Zhang et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2343-2024
- Changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in a future alpine climate R. Kaitna et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162227
- Critical Rainfall Thresholds as a Tool for Urban Flood Identification in Attica Region, Greece C. Georganta et al. 10.3390/atmos13050698
- Quantify the effect of antecedent effective precipitation on rainfall intensity-duration threshold of debris flow S. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s10346-023-02066-y
- Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps D. Bolliger et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024
- The role of volcanic ash thickness on the hydraulic conductivity of the ground and the initiation of debris flows T. Ersöz et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06654-6
- Review on the progress and future prospects of geological disasters prediction in the era of artificial intelligence X. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06673-3
- Brief communication: An autonomous UAV for catchment-wide monitoring of a debris flow torrent F. Walter et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022
- Validation and potential forecast use of a debris-flow rainfall threshold calibrated with the Backward Dynamical Approach M. Martinengo et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108519
- Monitoring the role of soil hydrologic conditions and rainfall for the triggering of torrential flows in the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees, Spain) R. Oorthuis et al. 10.1007/s10346-022-01975-8
- Debris‐flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path A. Könz et al. 10.1002/esp.5868
- Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Modeling for Debris Flow Occurrence: A Meta-Analysis L. Yang et al. 10.3390/w16070923
- Debris Flow Prediction Based on the Fast Multiple Principal Component Extraction and Optimized Broad Learning G. Xu et al. 10.3390/w14213374
- When instrument location makes the difference on rainfall thresholds definition: Lessons learned at Cancia, Dolomites S. Crema et al. 10.1051/e3sconf/202341503008
- Deep learning prediction of rainfall-driven debris flows considering the similar critical thresholds within comparable background conditions H. Jiang et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106130
- Feasibility of satellite-based rainfall and soil moisture data in determining the triggering conditions of debris flow: The Jiangjia Gully (China) case study H. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2023.107041
- Seismometer Records of Ground Tilt Induced by Debris Flows M. Wenner et al. 10.1785/0120210271
- Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data C. Millán-Arancibia & W. Lavado-Casimiro 10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023
- Evaluating the thresholds for predicting post-earthquake debris flows: Comparison of meteorological, hydro-meteorological and critical discharge approaches Z. Wei et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2024.107773
- Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification P. Ebert & P. Milne 10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022
- Multi-Methodological Investigation of the Biersdorf Hillslope Debris Flow (Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany) Associated to the Torrential Rainfall Event of 14 July 2021 T. Hagge-Kubat et al. 10.3390/geosciences12060245
- Evaluating methods for debris-flow prediction based on rainfall in an Alpine catchment J. Hirschberg et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
- Assessing rainfall threshold for shallow landslides triggering: a case study in the Alpes Maritimes region, France S. Barthélemy et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06941-2
29 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Assessing the informativeness of a coupled surface–subsurface watershed model for understanding debris flow: a hydrological perspective H. Wang et al. 10.1080/02626667.2024.2362303
- Flow and Bed Conditions Jointly Control Debris‐Flow Erosion and Bulking T. de Haas et al. 10.1029/2021GL097611
- Investigation of different lahar types with rainfall intensity duration curves in Arimura river basin of Sakurajima volcano T. ERSÖZ & Y. GONDA 10.13101/ijece.17.1
- Evaluation of rainfall threshold models for debris flow initiation in the Jiangjia Gully, Yunnan Province, China H. Yang et al. 10.1007/s11629-023-8507-6
- Rock slope failure preparation paced by total crack boundary length S. Lagarde et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00851-0
- Debris flow and debris flood hazard assessment in mountain catchments T. Baggio et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2024.108338
- A coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling approach for estimating rainfall thresholds of debris-flow occurrence Z. Wei et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-3357-2024
- Numerical Investigation of Sediment‐Yield Underestimation in Supply‐Limited Mountain Basins With Short Records J. Hirschberg et al. 10.1029/2021GL096440
- Extracting more features from rainfall data to analyze the conditions triggering debris flows Y. Zhao et al. 10.1007/s10346-022-01893-9
- Investigation of the functional relationship between antecedent rainfall and the probability of debris flow occurrence in Jiangjia Gully, China S. Zhang et al. 10.5194/hess-28-2343-2024
- Changes of hydro-meteorological trigger conditions for debris flows in a future alpine climate R. Kaitna et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162227
- Critical Rainfall Thresholds as a Tool for Urban Flood Identification in Attica Region, Greece C. Georganta et al. 10.3390/atmos13050698
- Quantify the effect of antecedent effective precipitation on rainfall intensity-duration threshold of debris flow S. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s10346-023-02066-y
- Comparison of debris flow observations, including fine-sediment grain size and composition and runout model results, at Illgraben, Swiss Alps D. Bolliger et al. 10.5194/nhess-24-1035-2024
- The role of volcanic ash thickness on the hydraulic conductivity of the ground and the initiation of debris flows T. Ersöz et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06654-6
- Review on the progress and future prospects of geological disasters prediction in the era of artificial intelligence X. Zhang et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06673-3
- Brief communication: An autonomous UAV for catchment-wide monitoring of a debris flow torrent F. Walter et al. 10.5194/nhess-22-4011-2022
- Validation and potential forecast use of a debris-flow rainfall threshold calibrated with the Backward Dynamical Approach M. Martinengo et al. 10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108519
- Monitoring the role of soil hydrologic conditions and rainfall for the triggering of torrential flows in the Rebaixader catchment (Central Pyrenees, Spain) R. Oorthuis et al. 10.1007/s10346-022-01975-8
- Debris‐flow entrainment modelling under climate change: Considering antecedent moisture conditions along the flow path A. Könz et al. 10.1002/esp.5868
- Machine-Learning-Based Prediction Modeling for Debris Flow Occurrence: A Meta-Analysis L. Yang et al. 10.3390/w16070923
- Debris Flow Prediction Based on the Fast Multiple Principal Component Extraction and Optimized Broad Learning G. Xu et al. 10.3390/w14213374
- When instrument location makes the difference on rainfall thresholds definition: Lessons learned at Cancia, Dolomites S. Crema et al. 10.1051/e3sconf/202341503008
- Deep learning prediction of rainfall-driven debris flows considering the similar critical thresholds within comparable background conditions H. Jiang et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2024.106130
- Feasibility of satellite-based rainfall and soil moisture data in determining the triggering conditions of debris flow: The Jiangjia Gully (China) case study H. Yang et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2023.107041
- Seismometer Records of Ground Tilt Induced by Debris Flows M. Wenner et al. 10.1785/0120210271
- Rainfall thresholds estimation for shallow landslides in Peru from gridded daily data C. Millán-Arancibia & W. Lavado-Casimiro 10.5194/nhess-23-1191-2023
- Evaluating the thresholds for predicting post-earthquake debris flows: Comparison of meteorological, hydro-meteorological and critical discharge approaches Z. Wei et al. 10.1016/j.enggeo.2024.107773
- Methodological and conceptual challenges in rare and severe event forecast verification P. Ebert & P. Milne 10.5194/nhess-22-539-2022
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Multi-Methodological Investigation of the Biersdorf Hillslope Debris Flow (Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany) Associated to the Torrential Rainfall Event of 14 July 2021 T. Hagge-Kubat et al. 10.3390/geosciences12060245
- Evaluating methods for debris-flow prediction based on rainfall in an Alpine catchment J. Hirschberg et al. 10.5194/nhess-21-2773-2021
- Assessing rainfall threshold for shallow landslides triggering: a case study in the Alpes Maritimes region, France S. Barthélemy et al. 10.1007/s11069-024-06941-2
Latest update: 04 Nov 2024
Short summary
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are rare. We established rainfall thresholds using two approaches and find that 25 debris flows are needed for uncertainties to converge in an Alpine basin and that the suitable method differs for regional compared to local thresholds. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a statistical learning algorithm to improve threshold performance. These findings are helpful for early warning system development.
Debris-flow prediction is often based on rainfall thresholds, but uncertainty assessments are...
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