Articles | Volume 21, issue 8
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2427-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
18 Aug 2021
Research article |
| 18 Aug 2021
| 18 Aug 2021
Performance of the Adriatic early warning system during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020: an assessment using energy banners
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I.
Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
Cléa Denamiel
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I.
Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
Ruđer Bošković Institute, Division for Marine and
Environmental Research, Bijenička cesta 54, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
Ivica Vilibić
Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Šetalište I.
Meštrovića 63, 21000 Split, Croatia
Ruđer Bošković Institute, Division for Marine and
Environmental Research, Bijenička cesta 54, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
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Ivica Vilibic and Elena Terzic
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3080, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-3080, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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The Adriatic Sea is changing faster than expected, with warmer and saltier waters reshaping its environment from the surface to the seabed. This study documents these changes and discusses how they may affect biogeochemistry, marine ecosystems, and more. The research provides important insight into the future happening nowadays of one of Europe’s most sensitive marine regions.
Manuel Vargas-Yáñez, Orens Pasqueron de Fommervault, Emanuela Clementi, Christian Ferrarin, Svitlana Liubertseva, Diego Álvarez-Berastegui, Baptiste Mourre, Salvatore Aronica, Rosa Balbin, Joaquín Ballabrera-Poy, Sana Ben Ismail, Nathaniel Benssousan, Ismail Bessa, Alicia Blanco, Anthony Bosse, Evi Bourma, François Bourrin, Carlo Brandini, Fulvio Capodici, Clara Casals-Baixas, Branko Cermelj, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Pascal Conan, Laurent Coppola, Lorenzo Corgnati, Joaquín del Río, Emilie Diamond Riquier, Lara Diaz-Barroso, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Xavier Durrieu de Madron, Milad Fakhri, Costantine Frangoulis, Claudia Fratianni, Emilio García-Ladona, Jesus García-Lafuente, M. Carmen García-Martínez, Joaquín Garrabou, Josep Gasol, Adam Gauci, Frédéric Gazeau, Gerard Gregory, Abed El Raman Hassoun, Jordi Isern-Fontanet, Dominique Lefevre, Nadia Lo Bue, Guiomar López, Pablo Lorente, Deny Malengros, Ramon Massana, Sinan Mavruk, Stefano Miserocchi, Behzad Mostajir, Laure Mousseau, Francina Moya, Antonio Novellino, Arianna Orasi, Emanuele Organelli, Vicent Ouisse, Tal Ozer, Begoña Pérez-Gómez, Susana Pérez-Rubio, Leonidas Perivoliotis, Georges Petihakis, Anne Petrenko, Sebastien Pinel, Xavier Pitarch, Angela Pomaro, Lucía Quirós-Collazos, Emma Reyes, Simone Sammartino, Anna Sánchez-Vidal, Katrin Schroeder, Stefano Taddei, Elena Tel, Pierre Testor, Marco Torri, Daniela Turk, Laura Ursella, Dimitris Velaoras, Francesca Vidussi, Ivica Vilivić, Enrico Zambiachi, D. Nikolaos Zarokanellos, George Zodiatis, and Vanessa Cardin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2632, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-2632, 2026
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Ocean Science (OS).
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This work compiles current marine observation capabilities in the Mediterranean Sea, making this information accessible to scientists, organizations, stakeholders, and environmental policymakers. It supports initiatives such as Copernicus Marine Service, EMODNet, the European Ocean Pact, and EU directives. It is intended as a living resource to be updated, identifying strengths and gaps in Mediterranean observation systems.
Cléa Denamiel, Alexis Marboeuf, Anne Mangeney, Anne Le Friant, Marc Peruzzetto, Antoine Lucas, Manuel J. Castro Díaz, and Enrique Fernández-Nieto
Geosci. Model Dev., 19, 3075–3107, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3075-2026, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-3075-2026, 2026
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Landslide-Tsurrogate v1.0 is an open-source Python/MATLAB tool that create surrogate models that replace costly numerical simulations. These models estimate tsunami hazards from submarine landslides in a few seconds. Based on polynomial chaos expansions, they also enable sensitivity analyses, fast probabilistic results, and user-friendly visualization. Tested in Mayotte, Landslide-Tsurrogate v1.0 can be applied to any coastal region.
Cléa Denamiel
Ocean Sci., 21, 1909–1931, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1909-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1909-2025, 2025
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This study advances our understanding of Adriatic marine heatwaves (MHWs) under historical and far-future extreme warming scenarios, emphasizing the critical role of the Po River plume and Adriatic natural variability in shaping MHW dynamics. While the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) approach used in the study provides valuable insights, future research should adopt more comprehensive modelling frameworks to better capture the complexities of future climate change and its impacts on MHWs.
Elena Terzić, Clara Gardiol, and Ivica Vilibić
Ocean Sci., 21, 1441–1459, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1441-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1441-2025, 2025
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Vertical salinity profiles with their highest values at the surface layers – surface saline lakes – have been known to occur in the eastern Mediterranean, where strong evaporation, warm summers, and low winds all contribute to an increase in surface salinity. Our analysis of Argo data from the past 2 decades showed that saline lakes also occur in other regions across the Mediterranean Sea. This poses the question of whether such changes indicate a salinification of the entire basin due to climate change.
Davide Bonaldo, Sandro Carniel, Renato R. Colucci, Cléa Denamiel, Petra Pranić, Fabio Raicich, Antonio Ricchi, Lorenzo Sangelantoni, Ivica Vilibić, and Maria Letizia Vitelletti
Ocean Sci., 21, 1003–1031, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1003-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-1003-2025, 2025
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We present a high-resolution modelling effort to investigate the possible end-of-century evolution of the main physical processes in the Adriatic Sea in a severe climate change scenario, with an ensemble approach (i.e. use of multiple simulations) allowing us to control the uncertainty of the predictions. Our model exhibits a satisfactory capability to reproduce the recent past and provides a basis for a set of multidisciplinary studies in this area over a multi-decadal horizon.
Cléa Denamiel, Iva Tojčić, and Petra Pranić
Ocean Sci., 21, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-21-37-2025, 2025
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We use a high-resolution atmosphere–ocean model to project Adriatic Dense Water dynamics under extreme warming. We find that a 15 % increase in sea surface evaporation will offset a 25 % decrease in extreme windstorms. As a result, future dense water will form at the same rate as today but will be too light to reach the Adriatic's deepest parts, making deep-water presence reliant on exchanges with the Ionian Sea.
Petra Pranić, Cléa Denamiel, Ivica Janeković, and Ivica Vilibić
Ocean Sci., 19, 649–670, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-649-2023, 2023
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In this study, we analyse and compare the results of four different approaches in modelling bora-driven dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic. The study investigated the likely requirements for modelling the ocean circulation in the Adriatic and found that a 31-year run of a fine-resolution Adriatic climate model is able to outperform most aspects of the newest reanalysis product, a short-term hindcast and data-assimilated simulation, in reproducing the dense-water dynamics in the Adriatic Sea.
Cléa Denamiel and Ivica Vilibić
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-913, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2023-913, 2023
Preprint archived
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We present a new methodology using coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave models and demonstrate the feasibility to provide meter scale assessments of the impact of climate change on storm surge hazards. We show that sea level variations and distributions can be derived at the climate scale in the Adriatic Sea small lagoons and bays. We expect that the newly developed methodology could lead to more targeted adaptation strategies in regions of the world vulnerable to atmospherically driven extreme events.
Begoña Pérez Gómez, Ivica Vilibić, Jadranka Šepić, Iva Međugorac, Matjaž Ličer, Laurent Testut, Claire Fraboul, Marta Marcos, Hassen Abdellaoui, Enrique Álvarez Fanjul, Darko Barbalić, Benjamín Casas, Antonio Castaño-Tierno, Srđan Čupić, Aldo Drago, María Angeles Fraile, Daniele A. Galliano, Adam Gauci, Branislav Gloginja, Víctor Martín Guijarro, Maja Jeromel, Marcos Larrad Revuelto, Ayah Lazar, Ibrahim Haktan Keskin, Igor Medvedev, Abdelkader Menassri, Mohamed Aïssa Meslem, Hrvoje Mihanović, Sara Morucci, Dragos Niculescu, José Manuel Quijano de Benito, Josep Pascual, Atanas Palazov, Marco Picone, Fabio Raicich, Mohamed Said, Jordi Salat, Erdinc Sezen, Mehmet Simav, Georgios Sylaios, Elena Tel, Joaquín Tintoré, Klodian Zaimi, and George Zodiatis
Ocean Sci., 18, 997–1053, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-997-2022, 2022
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This description and mapping of coastal sea level monitoring networks in the Mediterranean and Black seas reveals the existence of 240 presently operational tide gauges. Information is provided about the type of sensor, time sampling, data availability, and ancillary measurements. An assessment of the fit-for-purpose status of the network is also included, along with recommendations to mitigate existing bottlenecks and improve the network, in a context of sea level rise and increasing extremes.
Emma Reyes, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Vanessa Cardin, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Maria J. Fernandes, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Pablo Lorente, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Adèle Révelard, Catalina Reyes-Suárez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Alejandro Orfila
Ocean Sci., 18, 797–837, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-797-2022, 2022
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This work reviews the existing advanced and emerging scientific and societal applications using HFR data, developed to address the major challenges identified in Mediterranean coastal waters organized around three main topics: maritime safety, extreme hazards and environmental transport processes. It also includes a discussion and preliminary assessment of the capabilities of existing HFR applications, finally providing a set of recommendations towards setting out future prospects.
Pablo Lorente, Eva Aguiar, Michele Bendoni, Maristella Berta, Carlo Brandini, Alejandro Cáceres-Euse, Fulvio Capodici, Daniela Cianelli, Giuseppe Ciraolo, Lorenzo Corgnati, Vlado Dadić, Bartolomeo Doronzo, Aldo Drago, Dylan Dumas, Pierpaolo Falco, Maria Fattorini, Adam Gauci, Roberto Gómez, Annalisa Griffa, Charles-Antoine Guérin, Ismael Hernández-Carrasco, Jaime Hernández-Lasheras, Matjaž Ličer, Marcello G. Magaldi, Carlo Mantovani, Hrvoje Mihanović, Anne Molcard, Baptiste Mourre, Alejandro Orfila, Adèle Révelard, Emma Reyes, Jorge Sánchez, Simona Saviano, Roberta Sciascia, Stefano Taddei, Joaquín Tintoré, Yaron Toledo, Laura Ursella, Marco Uttieri, Ivica Vilibić, Enrico Zambianchi, and Vanessa Cardin
Ocean Sci., 18, 761–795, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-18-761-2022, 2022
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High-frequency radar (HFR) is a land-based remote sensing technology that can provide maps of the surface circulation over broad coastal areas, along with wave and wind information. The main goal of this work is to showcase the current status of the Mediterranean HFR network as well as present and future applications of this sensor for societal benefit such as search and rescue operations, safe vessel navigation, tracking of marine pollutants, and the monitoring of extreme events.
Petra Pranić, Cléa Denamiel, and Ivica Vilibić
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 5927–5955, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5927-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-5927-2021, 2021
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The Adriatic Sea and Coast model was developed due to the need for higher-resolution climate models and longer-term simulations to capture coastal atmospheric and ocean processes at climate scales in the Adriatic Sea. The ocean results of a 31-year-long simulation were compared to the observational data. The evaluation revealed that the model is capable of reproducing the observed physical properties with good accuracy and can be further used to study the dynamics of the Adriatic–Ionian basin.
Petra Zemunik, Jadranka Šepić, Havu Pellikka, Leon Ćatipović, and Ivica Vilibić
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4121–4132, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4121-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4121-2021, 2021
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A new global dataset – MISELA (Minute Sea-Level Analysis) – has been developed and contains quality-checked sea-level records from 331 tide gauges worldwide for a period from 2004 to 2019. The dataset is appropriate for research on atmospherically induced high-frequency sea-level oscillations. Research on these oscillations is important, as they can, like all sea-level extremes, seriously threaten coastal zone infrastructure and populations.
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Short summary
This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS) composed of a network of air pressure and sea level observations developed in order to help coastal communities prepare for extreme events. The system would have triggered the warnings for most of the observed events but also set off some false alarms if it was operational during the multi-meteotsunami event of 11–19 May 2020 in the eastern Adriatic. Further development of the system is planned.
This study quantifies the performance of the Croatian meteotsunami early warning system (CMeEWS)...
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