Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 21, 2169–2179, 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021

Research article 19 Jul 2021

Research article | 19 Jul 2021

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018

Folmer Krikken et al.

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Cited articles

Abatzoglou, J. T. and Williams, A. P.: Impact of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire across western US forests, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 113, 11770–11775, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1607171113, 2016. 
Abatzoglou, J. T., Williams, A. P., and Barbero, R.: Global Emergence of Anthropogenic Climate Change in Fire Weather Indices, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 326–336, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080959, 2019. 
Balch, J. K., Nepstad, D. C., Brando, P. M., Curran, L. M., Portela, O., Carvalho, O. D., and Lefebvre, P.: Negative fire feedback in a transitional forest of southeastern Amazonia, Glob. Change Biol., 14, 2276–2287, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2008.01655.x, 2008. 
Balch, J. K., Bradley, B. A., Abatzoglou, J. T., Nagy, R. C., Fusco, E. J., and Mahood, A. L.: Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 114, 2946–2951, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1617394114, 2017. 
Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): ERA5: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Data Store (CDS), available at: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/home (last access: 15 March 2019), 2017. 
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In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
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