Articles | Volume 21, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2169-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jul 2021
Research article |
| 19 Jul 2021
| 19 Jul 2021
Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018
Folmer Krikken
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Research and Development of Weather and Climate models, De Bilt, Utrecht, The Netherlands
Flavio Lehner
National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA
Karsten Haustein
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United
Kingdom
Igor Drobyshev
Centre for Forest Research, Montreal, Canada
NSERC-UQAT-UQAM, Industrial Chair in Sustainable Forest Management,
Université du Québec, Quebec, Canada
Southern Swedish Forest
Research Centre, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Alnarp, Sweden
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Research and Development of Weather and Climate models, De Bilt, Utrecht, The Netherlands
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Short summary
In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying observationally constrained data and multiple climate models. We find a small reduced probability of such events, based on reanalyses, but a small increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future, based on climate models.
In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through...
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