Articles | Volume 20, issue 3
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 755–770, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-755-2020
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 755–770, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-755-2020

Research article 23 Mar 2020

Research article | 23 Mar 2020

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using nonhydrostatic model rainfalls – Part 2: Flood forecasting using 1600-member 4D-EnVar-predicted rainfalls

Kenichiro Kobayashi et al.

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (05 May 2019) by Kai Schröter
AR by Kenichiro Kobayashi on behalf of the Authors (11 Jun 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (26 Jun 2019) by Kai Schröter
RR by Alan Seed (12 Jul 2019)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (02 Aug 2019)
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (08 Oct 2019)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (further review by editor and referees) (17 Oct 2019) by Kai Schröter
AR by Kenichiro Kobayashi on behalf of the Authors (25 Nov 2019)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (04 Dec 2019) by Kai Schröter
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (05 Dec 2019)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (18 Jan 2020)
ED: Publish as is (04 Feb 2020) by Kai Schröter
Short summary
The feasibility of flood forecasting with 1600 rainfall forecasts was investigated. The rainfall forecasts were obtained from an advanced data assimilation system. The high probability of flood occurrence was predicted, which is not possible by the single deterministic forecast. The necessity of emergency flood operation was shown with a long leading time. This suggests that it is worth investing in increasing numbers of meteorological ensembles to improve flood forecasting.
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